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Bridgewater’s Bob Prince says Fed rate-cutting hopes are ‘off track’

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Bridgewater’s Bob Prince says Fed rate-cutting hopes are ‘off track’

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Persistent inflation and hot US growth have left the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting hopes “off track”, Bridgewater’s Bob Prince said on Tuesday, adding an influential voice to the growing chorus asking whether US rates will start to fall this year.

“So far, this year is not transpiring the way that the Fed — or interest rate markets — have described. I think it is clear the Fed is off-track now. The question is how far off track,” Prince, the $112.5bn hedge fund’s co-chief investment officer, told the Financial Times.  

His comments came as Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic told Yahoo News that if progress on inflation stalls and economic growth remains strong, it is possible the US central bank may not cut interest rates at all this year. Bostic is a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee.

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Investing giant Vanguard last month said that it no longer expects the Fed to cut interest rates this year, while JPMorgan chief executive Jamie Dimon in his annual shareholder letter this week said government stimulus could mean rates and inflation stay higher than markets were expecting.

Traders in the futures market have cut their expectations of how many rate cuts the Fed will make this year, from six or seven in January to between two and three as inflation data has come in hotter than expected.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday will release consumer price inflation data for March, which could further sway investor expectations. Economists polled by Bloomberg forecast a tick-up in the headline rate to 3.4 per cent, with the core rate dipping to 3.7 per cent.

After raising interest rates to the highest level in 23 years, the Fed indicated at the end of last year that it was done. In their December dot plot — a survey of officials’ expectations for inflation, growth and interest rates — Fed members indicated they saw growth and inflation slowing, and accordingly expected three quarter-point cuts to rates this year. 

Despite stronger than expected inflation figures since then, the Fed’s March dot plot reaffirmed its expectations of three cuts, even as officials raised their outlook for inflation and growth this year. 

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“The Summary of Economic Projections is an if/then statement. If inflation and growth are at certain levels, then interest rates can be lowered. None of the ifs are true right now,” said Prince.  

For this reason, Prince said he saw “no reason to move out of cash into longer-term bonds at the moment”.

Rates on Treasury bills are far higher than those on longer-term Treasuries, he noted, and investors are not being paid much to take on the additional risk of holding longer-dated bonds. Investors betting that interest rates are not coming down anytime soon would have no reason to move out of cash, he said, “because there’s not an appropriate risk premium yet in assets relative to cash”.

The only reason to cut rates at current levels of growth and inflation would be if there was big boost to productivity in the economy — either from a surge in immigration or another big addition to labour force participation — that would allow the US to have non-inflationary growth, said Prince.

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Map: 4.9-Magnitude Earthquake Shakes Louisiana

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Map: 4.9-Magnitude Earthquake Shakes Louisiana

Note: Map shows the area with a shake intensity of 4 or greater, which U.S.G.S. defines as “light,” though the earthquake may be felt outside the areas shown.  All times on the map are Central time. The New York Times

A light, 4.9-magnitude earthquake struck in Louisiana on Thursday, according to the United States Geological Survey.

The temblor happened at 5:30 a.m. Central time about 6 miles west of Edgefield, La., data from the agency shows.

U.S.G.S. data earlier reported that the magnitude was 4.4.

As seismologists review available data, they may revise the earthquake’s reported magnitude. Additional information collected about the earthquake may also prompt U.S.G.S. scientists to update the shake-severity map.

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Source: United States Geological Survey | Notes: Shaking categories are based on the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale. When aftershock data is available, the corresponding maps and charts include earthquakes within 100 miles and seven days of the initial quake. All times above are Central time. Shake data is as of Thursday, March 5 at 8:40 a.m. Eastern. Aftershocks data is as of Thursday, March 5 at 10:46 a.m. Eastern.

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Donald Trump has no ‘phase two’ plan for Iran war, says US senator

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Donald Trump has no ‘phase two’ plan for Iran war, says US senator

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Man accused of plot to assassinate Trump testifies Iran pressured him, says Biden and Haley were other possible targets

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Man accused of plot to assassinate Trump testifies Iran pressured him, says Biden and Haley were other possible targets

The allegation sounded like the stuff of spy movies: A Pakistani businessman trying to hire hit men, even handing them $5,000 in cash, to kill a U.S. politician on behalf of Iran ‘s powerful paramilitary Revolutionary Guard.

It was true, and potential targets of the 2024 scheme included now-President Donald Trump, then-President Joe Biden and former presidential candidate and ex-U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, the man told jurors at his attempted terrorism trial in New York on Wednesday. But he insisted his actions were driven by fear for loved ones in Iran, and he figured he’d be apprehended before anything came of the scheme.

“My family was under threat, and I had to do this,” the defendant, Asif Merchant, testified through an Urdu interpreter. “I was not wanting to do this so willingly.”

Merchant said he had anticipated getting arrested before anyone was killed, intended to cooperate with the U.S. government and had hoped that would help him get a green card.

U.S. authorities were, indeed, on to him – the supposed hit men he paid were actually undercover FBI agents – and he was arrested on July 12, 2024, a day before an unrelated attempt on Trump’s life in Butler, Pennsylvania.  During a search, investigators said they found a handwritten note that contained the codewords for the various aspects of the plot, CBS News previously reported

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Merchant did sit for voluntary FBI interviews, but he ultimately ended up with a trial, not a cooperation deal.

“You traveled to the United States for the purpose of hiring Mafia members to kill a politician, correct?” Assistant U.S. Attorney Nina Gupta asked during her turn questioning Merchant Wednesday in a Brooklyn federal court.

“That’s right,” Merchant replied, his demeanor as matter-of-fact as his testimony was unusual.

The trial is unfolding amid the less than week-old Iran war, which killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a strike that Trump summed up as “I got him before he got me.” Jurors are instructed to ignore news pertaining to the case.

The Iranian government has denied plotting to kill Trump or other U.S. officials.

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Merchant, 47, had a roughly 20-year banking career in Pakistan before getting involved in an array of businesses: clothing, car sales, banana exports, insulation imports. He openly has two families, one in Pakistan and the other in Iran – where, he said, he was introduced around the end of 2022 to a Revolutionary Guard intelligence operative. They initially spoke about getting involved in a hawala, an informal money transfer system, Merchant said.

Merchant testified that his periodic visits to the U.S. for his garment business piqued the interest of his Revolutionary Guard contact, who trained him on countersurveillance techniques.

The U.S. deems the Revolutionary Guard a “foreign terrorist organization.” Formally called the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the force has been prominent in Iran under Khamenei.

Merchant said the handler told him to seek U.S. residents interested in working for Iran. Then came another assignment: Look for a criminal to arrange protests, steal things, do some money laundering, “and maybe have somebody murdered,” Merchant recalled.

“He did not tell me exactly who it is, but he told me – he named three people: Donald Trump, Joe Biden and Nikki Haley,” he added.

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In 2024, multiple sources familiar with the investigation told CBS News Merchant planned to assassinate current and former government officials across the political spectrum.

Merchant allegedly sketched out the plot on a napkin inside his New York hotel room, prosecutors said, and told the individual “that there would be ‘security all around’ the person” they were planning to kill.

“No other option”

After U.S. immigration agents pulled Merchant aside at the Houston airport in April 2024, searched his possessions and asked about his travels to Iran, he concluded that he was under surveillance. But still he researched Trump rally locations, sketched out a plot for a shooting at a political rally, lined up the supposed hit men and scrambled together $5,000 from a cousin to pay them a “token of appreciation.”

This image provided by the Justice Department, contained in the complaint supporting the arrest warrant, shows Asif Merchant. 

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AP


He even reported back to his Revolutionary Guard contact, sending observations – fake, Merchant said – tucked into a book that he shipped to Iran through a series of intermediaries.

Merchant said he “had no other option” than to play along because the handler had indicated that he knew who Merchant’s Iranian relatives were and where they lived.

In a court filing this week, prosecutors noted that Merchant didn’t seek out law enforcement to help with his purported predicament before he was arrested. He testified that he couldn’t turn to authorities because his handler had people watching him.

Prosecutors also said that in his FBI interviews, Merchant “neglected to mention any facts that could have supported” an argument that he acted under duress.

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Merchant told jurors Wednesday that he didn’t think agents would believe his story, because their questions suggested “they think that I’m some type of super-spy.”

“And are you a super-spy?” defense lawyer Avraham Moskowitz asked.

“No,” Merchant said. “Absolutely not.”

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