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An independent effort says AI is the secret to topple two-party power in Congress
The Independent Center is using AI to identify Congressional districts where independent candidates could win over the Democrat or Republican candidate. Its goal is to elect at least a handful of independents to disrupt the two-party system on Capitol Hill.
Glenn Harvey for NPR
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Glenn Harvey for NPR
The rise of AI assistants is rewriting the rhythms of everyday life: people are feeding their blood test results into chatbots, turning to ChatGPT for advice on their love lives and leaning on AI for everything from planning trips to finishing homework assignments.
Now, one organization suggests artificial intelligence can go beyond making daily life more convenient. It says it’s the key to reshaping American politics.
“Without AI, what we’re trying to do would be impossible,” explained Adam Brandon, a senior advisor at the Independent Center, a nonprofit that studies and engages with independent voters.
The goal is to elect a handful of independent candidates to the House of Representatives in 2026, using AI to identify districts where independents could succeed and uncover diamond in the rough candidates.
In a time when control of the House balances on a knife’s edge, winning even a handful of seats could deny either party from getting a majority and upend the way the House currently operates.
It’s a bold proposition in a system that hasn’t seen a new independent candidate win a House seat in 35 years.
But data shows a rise in moderate and independent voters. Gallup found 43% of Americans — a record high — claiming the independent label in 2024. Exit polls that year showed 34 percent of voters identified as independent, up from 26 percent in 2020.
“There’s a huge chunk of people who for different reasons can’t stomach either of the two parties,” said David Barker, a professor of government at American University. “It’s the first time in a long time where a plurality of Americans are now identifying as independents, and so that does seem to signal a pretty important shift.”
Brandon said that shift is what makes the time right to disrupt the status quo.
“It’s like Uber and taxis. You had a system with an obvious flaw, that had entrenched operators and took a radical change to go completely around it,” he told NPR. “And that’s what we’re feeling now. People are so stuck into ‘Republican’ and ‘Democrat’ and we’re like, well, there’s something else.”
‘We’re political fighters’
Trying to throw a wrench into the stranglehold of a two-party system is an uphill battle, pushing against political orthodoxy and plenty of skeptics.
But the Independent Center’s strategists are a far cry from political newbies.
“We’re political fighters,” said Brandon, who served as President of FreedomWorks, the conservative grassroots group that helped turn Tea Party activists into a political force before closing its doors last year. “We have built a team of people that know how to do this. We’re not going to be pushovers.”
Brandon works closely with Brett Loyd, who runs The Bullfinch Group, the nonpartisan polling and data firm overseeing the polling and research at the Independent Center. He previously worked on President Trump’s polling team, when the president was a candidate.
“I’m a statistician. I kind of joke that I worked for the RNC because they offered me a job before the DNC,” he said with a smile. “My job is numbers and sentiment and game theory. It’s not necessarily Republican or Democratic.”
He makes it clear the goal of their work isn’t to erase partisanship altogether.
“This isn’t going to work everywhere. It’s going to work in very specific areas,” Loyd said. “If you live in a hyper-Republican or hyper-Democratic district, you should have a Democrat or Republican representing you.”
But with the help of AI, he’s identified 40 seats that don’t fit that mold, where he said independents can make inroads with voters fed up with both parties. The Independent Center plans to have about ten candidates in place by the spring, with the goal of winning at least half of the races.
Brandon predicts those wins could prompt moderate partisans in the House to switch affiliations.
“I had one Republican [member] tell me in his office, ‘I’m too chicken**** to do this right now,’” he recalled. “‘But if you can do this, I will join you.’”
From mining Reddit to matching on LinkedIn
Their proprietary AI tool created by an outside partner has been years in the making.
While focus groups and polling have long driven understanding of American sentiments, AI can monitor what people are talking about in real time.
“Polling is a snapshot in time — a Tuesday at 11 when you got the phone call or you were at the focus group, this is how you felt, but then you went home and your views changed. We can watch that,” Brandon said.
They’re using AI to understand core issues and concerns of voters, and to hunt for districts ripe for an independent candidate to swoop in.
“A district that’s 50% Republican and 50% Democratic that keeps flip flopping because of who showed up on a given night, is that something that is truly independent versus a district in Arizona where a plurality is independent but they’re plugging their nose and voting?” Loyd explained. “We’re looking at voter participation rates. What districts have really low turnout because those people aren’t excited to go to the ballot box.”
He’s also looking at districts with younger voters, who he said embrace the independent message.
“When I say Gen Z and millennials, people keep rolling their eyes and they’re like, ‘the kids,’” he said. “Well, those kids are going to be more than half the electorate in the next presidential election.”
From there, the next step is taking the data and finding what the dream candidate looks like.
The Independent Center is recruiting candidates both from people who reach out to the organization directly and with the help of AI.
They can even run their data through LinkedIn to identify potential candidates with certain interests and career and volunteer history.
“Usually they’re not self-promoting, but their actions leave a footprint,” Loyd said, giving the example of someone volunteering at an event covered by the local paper. “We ask our AI to find that footprint.”
The AI also informs where a candidate is best placed to win.
Brandon points to one instance where a candidate was poised to run in their home district. The AI showed the district next door is a better bet.
“30 minutes way, perfect fit,” he said. “And that’s what [that person’s] going to do, because we found they matched up perfectly.”
‘What’s wrong with spoiling something people don’t like?’
One criticism Brandon and Loyd acknowledge they hear often is the idea of ‘spoilers’ — non-winning candidates whose presence on the ballot affects which candidate wins.
“It’s a partisan, archaic line,” Loyd said. “What’s wrong with spoiling something people don’t like?”
He said the people criticizing independents getting into races as spoilers have an entrenched interest in the current system.
“The Republican and Democratic establishments still live in a world that’s binary. It’s Coke or Pepsi, it’s Ford or Chevy, it’s MSNBC or Fox News,” he said. “That works for people that watch MSNBC and Fox News. Everybody else? We don’t live in that binary system anymore.”
Brandon said the only thing to do is lean in.
“We’re going to embrace the spoiler because what we’re spoiling is a pretty corrupt system.”
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Satellite images show Iran school strike hit more buildings than earlier reported
The bombing of an Iranian elementary school that killed some 165 people, many of them schoolgirls, included more targets near the school than has been initially reported, a review of commercial satellite imagery by NPR has found.
The images suggest that the school was hit on Saturday as part of a precision airstrike on a neighboring Iranian military complex — and that it may have been struck as a result of outdated targeting information.
The new images come from the company Planet and are of the city of Minab, located in southeastern Iran. They show that a health clinic and other buildings near the school were also struck. Three independent experts confirmed NPR’s analysis of the additional strike points.
The strike points “look like pretty clean detonation centroids,” said Corey Scher, a postdoctoral researcher at the Conflict Ecology laboratory at Oregon State University.
“These certainly appear like detonation sites,” agreed Scher’s colleague, Oregon State associate professor Jamon Van Den Hoek.
Jeffrey Lewis, a professor at Middlebury College who specializes in satellite imagery, said the imagery was consistent with a precision airstrike.
The images show “very precise targeting,” Lewis told NPR. “Almost all the buildings [in the compound] are hit.”
A satellite image of an Iranian Revolutionary Guard compound taken on March 4, several days after an airstrike destroyed a school on the edge of the compound. The image reveals that half a dozen other buildings in addition to the school were struck.
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Iranian state media said 165 people died in the bombing, which struck a girls’ school. The school was located within less than 100 yards of the perimeter of an Iranian Revolutionary Guard naval base, according to satellite images and publicly available information. The clinic was also located within the base perimeter, although both facilities had been walled off from the base.
Israel has denied involvement. “We are not aware at the moment of any IDF operation in that area,” Israel Defense Forces spokesperson Nadav Shoshani told NPR on Monday. “I don’t know who’s responsible for the bombing.”

At a press conference Wednesday morning, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said that the U.S. is looking into what happened at the school. “All I know, all I can say, is that we’re investigating that,” Hegseth said. “We, of course, never target civilian targets.”
Given Minab’s location in the southeastern part of Iran, Lewis believes it’s more likely the U.S. would have conducted the strike than Israel. As one gets farther south and east in Iran, “a strike is much more likely to be a U.S. strike than an Israeli strike because of the type of munitions and the geographic location,” he said.
Esmail Baghaei, the spokesman for Iran’s Foreign Ministry, called the strike “deliberate” and said that the U.S. and Israel bombed the school in part to tie up Iranian forces in the region with rescue efforts. “To call the attack on the girls school merely a ‘war crime’ does not capture the sheer evil and depravity of such a crime,” he said.
But Lewis said it’s more likely that the strike was the result of an error. Satellite images show that the school and clinic buildings were both once part of the base. The school was separated from the base by a wall between 2013 and 2016. The clinic was walled off between 2022 and 2024.
Lewis believes it’s possible American military planners had not updated their target sets.
“There are thousands of targets across Iran, and so there will be teams in the United States and Israel that are responsible for tracking those targets and updating them,” he said. “It’s possible that the target didn’t get updated.”
The Pentagon did not immediately respond to NPR’s request for additional information about the strike.
NPR’s Arezou Rezvani and NPR’s RAD team contributed to this report.
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Mojtaba Khamenei, son of former supreme leader, tipped to become Iran’s next head of state
Mojtaba Khamenei, the second son of the assassinated Ali Khamenei, is being heavily tipped to succeed his father as supreme leader of Iran, which would pitch a hardliner into the task of steering the Islamic republic through the most turbulent period in its 48-year history and offer a powerful signal that, for now, it has no intention of changing course.
No official confirmation has been given and the announcement may be delayed until after the funeral of Ali Khamenei, which was on Wednesday postponed.
His son is believed to have been the choice of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and the Israeli defence minister, Gideon Saar, has warned he will be assassinated.
Ayatollah Seyed Khatani, a member of the Assembly of Experts, the body that chooses the new supreme leader, said the assembly was close to selecting a leader.
Rigid in his anti-western views, Mojtaba Khamenei is not the candidate Donald Trump would have wanted. Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state, said on Tuesday that Iran was run by “religious fanatic lunatics” – and Khamenei’s appointment is hardly likely to dispel that opinion.
The choice of supreme leader is made by the 88-strong Assembly of Experts, who in this case are picking from a field of six possible candidates. His election would be a powerful if unsurprising symbol that the government is not looking to find an accommodation with America.
Trump has said the worst-case scenario would be if Khamenei’s successor was “as bad as the previous person”.
There has been speculation for more than a decade that he would be his father’s successor, which grew when Ebrahim Raisi, the elected president and favourite of Khamenei, was killed in a helicopter crash.
Mojtaba Khamenei was born in 1969 and studied theology after graduating from high school. At the age of 17, he went to serve in the Iran-Iraq war, but it was not until the late 1990s that he came to be recognised as a public figure in his own right.
After the landslide defeat of Khamenei’s preferred candidate, Ali Akbar Nategh Nuri, in the 1997 presidential election, where he won only 25% of the final vote, various conservative Iranian groups realised the need to make changes to their structures and Mojtaba Khamenei was central to that project.
He was also seen as instrumental by reformists in suppressing the protests in 2009 that came after allegations the presidential election had been rigged, with his name chanted in the streets as one of those responsible. Mostafa Tajzadeh, a senior member of Iran’s reformist parties who was imprisoned after the vote, alleged that his and his wife, Fakhr al-Sadat Mohtashamipour’s, legal case was under the direct supervision of Mojtaba Khamenei.
In 2022 he was given the title of ayatollah – essential to his promotion. By then he was a regular figure by his father’s side at political meetings, as well as playing an influential role in the Islamic Republic’s Broadcasting Corporation, the government’s official media outlet often criticised for churning out dull political propaganda that many Iranians reject in favour of overseas satellite channels. He has also played a central role in the administration of his father’s substantial financial empire.
His closest political allies are Ahmad Vahidi, the newly appointed IRGC commander; Hossein Taeb, a former head of the IRGC’s intelligence organisation; and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the current speaker of the parliament.
His rumoured appointment and its hereditary nature has long been resisted by reformists. The former prime minister Mir Hossein Mousavi, referring to the long history of rumours about Mojtaba Khamenei succeeding his father as leader, wrote in 2022: “News of this conspiracy have been heard for 13 years. If they are not truly pursuing it, why don’t they deny such an intention once and for all?”
The Assembly of Experts, in response, denounced “meaninglessness of doubts” and said the assembly would select only “the most qualified and the most suitable”.
Israel on Tuesday struck the building in the Iranian city of Qom, one of Shia Islam’s main seats of power, where the assembly was scheduled, but the building was empty, according to IRGC-affiliated media.
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Video: Senators Question Kristi Noem on ICE Immigration Tactics
new video loaded: Senators Question Kristi Noem on ICE Immigration Tactics
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transcript
Senators Question Kristi Noem on ICE Immigration Tactics
Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem repeatedly refused to apologize for suggesting that Alex Pretti and Renee Good, two U.S. citizens shot and killed by agents, were domestic terrorists.
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What we’ve seen is a disaster under your leadership, Ms. Noem. A disaster. What we’ve seen is innocent people getting detained that turn out are American citizens. I could talk about the culture that’s been created here. After the killings of Renee Good and Alex Pretti, when I spoke to Alex’s parents, they told me that you calling him a domestic terrorist — this was directly from them — the day after he was killed, a nurse in our V.A., Alex — one of the most hurtful things they could ever imagine was said by you about their son. Do you have anything you want to say to Alex Pretti’s parents? Ma’am, I did not call him a domestic terrorist. I said It appeared to be an incident of — I think the parents saw it for what it was. In a hearing — recent hearing before the HSGAC committee, C.B.P. and ICE officials testified under oath that their agencies did not inform you that Pretti was a domestic terrorist — during that hearing, stated during that hearing, I was getting reports from the ground, from agents at the scene, and I would say that it was a chaotic scene. How did you think that calling them domestic terrorists at that scene was somehow going to calm the situation? The fact that you can’t admit to a mistake, which looks like under investigation, it’s going to prove that Ms. Good and Mr. Pretti probably should not have been shot in the face and in the back. Law enforcement needs to learn from that. You don’t protect them by not looking after the facts.
By Christina Kelso and Jackeline Luna
March 3, 2026
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