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5 reasons the Biden-Xi call is so important

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5 reasons the Biden-Xi call is so important

This name comes at a possible turning level for ties between the USA and China. White Home officers are watching with rising concern the budding partnership between Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin, and China’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has proved troubling to western observers. Beijing seems to be neither totally supportive nor instantly opposed, making for an unsure stance Biden hopes each to decipher and affect when he speaks to Xi on Friday.
White Home officers stated they anticipated the decision may flip intense; a preliminary assembly between the 2 leaders’ aides stretched for seven hours earlier this week. And Biden upped the stakes when he alluded to his name a day beforehand, declaring his Chinese language counterpart “doesn’t consider democracies will be sustained within the twenty first century.”

1. The decision comes at a crucial second within the Russia-Ukraine battle

“We’re involved that they are contemplating instantly aiding Russia with navy gear to make use of in Ukraine,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated Thursday, confirming what different US officers had been warning for days.

Already, the USA has conveyed to some NATO allies it believes China has some willingness to assist Russia, although Moscow denies asking for it and Beijing says it is not offering any assist.

American officers say they consider Xi has been unsettled by Russia’s invasion and the efficiency of Russia’s navy, which has skilled logistical and strategic setbacks for the reason that invasion started greater than two weeks in the past.

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Watching from Beijing, Xi was caught off-guard that his personal intelligence had not been capable of predict what would occur, though the USA had been warning of an invasion for weeks, the officers stated.

2. China may present Russia with a spread of assist

US officers do not consider China could be prepared to supply Russia with massive offensive gear like tanks or jets. As a substitute, officers stated they believed it extra probably China would ship smaller gadgets like meals, ammunition, spare elements or surveillance gear — in the event that they ship something in any respect.

Officers stated it was nonetheless attainable China helps Russia alleviate the impact of withering Western sanctions by way of monetary assist, although it is unlikely the nation would have the ability to fully blunt the consequences of the US and European measures.

On their telephone name, Biden hopes to clarify to Xi the downsides of aiding Russia’s battle, both by way of navy or monetary help. He’ll “clarify that China will bear duty for any actions it takes to assist Russia’s aggression and we is not going to hesitate to impose prices,” Blinken stated.

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It’s extensively assumed Xi will safe a historic third time period in energy throughout the Communist Celebration’s twentieth Nationwide Congress in Beijing this fall. Throughout such an necessary 12 months, western consultants consider Xi will probably be significantly conscious of the financial dangers posed by secondary-sanctions. Commerce between the European Union and China topped $800 billion final 12 months and US-China commerce was over $750 billion, based on China’s official knowledge, whereas its commerce with Russia was slightly below $150 billion.
But there stays an ongoing debate throughout the administration about what steps to take in opposition to China ought to it determine to help Russia. Biden and his administration have declined to publicly focus on precisely what choices they’re contemplating, however have warned that there will probably be “penalties” for China in the event that they assist Russia.

3. US should handle a ‘cold-blooded’ partnership between Russia and China

Even earlier than Russia invaded Ukraine, US officers had been watching warily as Putin and Xi grew nearer. CIA Director Invoice Burns stated final week the partnership was rooted in “a whole lot of very cold-blooded causes.”

The 2 leaders declared their relationship had “no limits” in a prolonged doc in February, when Putin visited Beijing for talks and to attend the opening ceremony of the Winter Olympics. The doc noticed China again Russia’s central demand to the West, with each side “opposing additional enlargement of NATO.”

Since then, the partnership with out limits has been examined as Xi weighs how to reply to Russia’s battle in Ukraine. Beijing’s evolving response — from denying an invasion would occur to making an attempt to keep away from Western condemnation by presenting itself as prepared to take part in mediation — has been carefully monitored by the White Home.

US officers have seen combined indicators. When China abstained from a United Nations reprimand vote in opposition to Russia, it was seen as an indication of Beijing distancing itself. And a prime Chinese language official stated final month that Ukraine’s sovereignty have to be revered.

However different indicators have pointed towards a extra accommodating stance, together with China’s amplification of Russian disinformation. And prime US officers have stated a scarcity of denunciation is sufficient indication of the place China’s allegiance lies.

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“We consider China specifically has a duty to make use of its affect with President Putin and to defend the worldwide guidelines and rules that it professes to assist,” Blinken stated Thursday. “As a substitute, it seems that China is transferring in the wrong way by refusing to sentence this aggression whereas looking for to painting itself as a impartial arbiter.”

4. American allies in Asia are watching China’s response to Ukraine battle carefully

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — breaching its sovereignty and sending Europe into its worst battle in many years — has despatched ripples of hysteria internationally. One place watching carefully is Taiwan, the self-governing island claimed by China.

Beijing has just lately stepped-up navy flights near the island there and warned in opposition to American assist. Within the early days of the Ukraine battle, there have been fears Russia’s invasion may portend a Chinese language invasion of Taiwan, though it didn’t seem one was imminent.

American officers have since downplayed the parallels, saying if something, the united response to Russia might trigger China to rethink no matter plans it had for Taiwan. Russia’s invasion has galvanized not solely the West and NATO but in addition international locations within the Asia-Pacific — an final result American intelligence believed Xi was unprepared for, supposing as a substitute that financial pursuits would forestall international locations there from imposing extreme sanctions.

Even some on Biden’s personal nationwide safety workforce had been stunned at how shortly some US allies in Asia, together with Japan and Australia, had been prepared to slap sanctions on Russia following its invasion.

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5. Biden and Xi have a protracted historical past — and really totally different worldviews

Biden is keen on citing the lengthy hours he spent with Xi when each had been serving as their nation’s vp. He has claimed to have spent extra time with Xi than some other world chief.

But they have not met face-to-face since Biden took workplace and Xi has not left China throughout the Covid pandemic. That has left them to fulfill in internet conferences or converse on the telephone, a dynamic Biden has stated that he doesn’t discover perfect.

He and his workforce have labored to ascertain a coverage of managed competitors with China. They’ve left in place the tariffs imposed by former President Donald Trump and criticized China for not upholding its commitments from a Trump-era commerce deal.

Earlier than the battle in Ukraine, Biden appeared intent on refocusing American international coverage towards Asia, the place he views the competitors between the US and China as a defining problem of the following century.

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And whereas the Ukraine disaster has preoccupied the White Home in latest weeks, officers insist they’re nonetheless capable of keep their overriding imaginative and prescient.

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Russia launches Christmas Day attack on Ukraine’s energy system

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Russia launches Christmas Day attack on Ukraine’s energy system

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Russia has carried out a Christmas Day attack on Ukraine’s energy system, leaving more than half a million people without heating, water and electricity. 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the attack, the 13th large-scale assault of 2024 on the country’s grid, was “deliberate” and not a coincidence. “What could be more inhuman?” he wrote on X.

About 50 of the 70 missiles fired in the attack were intercepted, along with a “significant” portion of the more than 100 attack drones deployed, he added.

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This year Ukrainians marked Christmas Day on December 25 for the second time, after switching to the western Gregorian calendar last year. The decision to stop celebrating Christmas on January 7 in line with the Orthodox calendar was made by Kyiv to break with Russian influence.

Oleh Syniehubov, governor of Ukraine’s eastern Kharkiv region, told Ukraine’s national television news that the attack had left more than 500,000 people without heating, water and electricity.

Temperatures across Ukraine are around freezing point.

Heating supplies were also cut in some areas of Ukraine’s Ivano-Frankivsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions, in the west and south of the country. 

Ukraine’s energy grid operator, Ukrenergo, urged consumers to limit consumption by not switching on multiple appliances at once, adding that the system was still recovering from the previous Russian attack on December 13.

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Ukraine’s largest private energy company, DTEK, said that its power stations had been damaged and one of its long-term employees killed.

Ukraine’s foreign minister, Andriy Sybiha, said on X that the attack reflects Russian President Vladimir Putin’s response to “those who spoke about illusionary ‘Christmas ceasefire’”.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said last week that Zelenskyy had rejected his proposal for a ceasefire and prisoner exchange on the January 7 Orthodox Christmas.

Ukraine denied that such a proposal was ever on the table, asking Hungary to “refrain from manipulations” regarding the war. On Friday, Heorhii Tykhyi, spokesperson for Ukraine’s foreign ministry, described it as “PR, a move” by Orbán.

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American Airlines lifts ground stop that froze Christmas Eve travelers

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American Airlines lifts ground stop that froze Christmas Eve travelers

An American Airlines agent talks to a customer at O’Hare International Airport in Chicago, Ill., last week. On Tuesday, the airline issued a national halt to flights.

Kamil Krzacznski/AFP via Getty Images


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Kamil Krzacznski/AFP via Getty Images

American Airlines passengers across the U.S. endured a sudden disruption of service on Christmas Eve, as a “technical issue” forced the airline to request a nationwide ground stop of its operations.

“The ground stop has now been lifted,” the Federal Aviation Administration told NPR shortly after 8 a.m. ET.

On Facebook and X, passengers shared stories of boarding planes early on Christmas Eve — only to be left waiting on the tarmac. In some cases, they described being told the flight would return to its gate so everyone onboard could deplane.

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The ground stop lasted for about one hour, according to the airline.

 “We sincerely apologize to our customers for the inconvenience this morning,” the airline said.

In a statement sent to NPR, American says the widespread delays were caused by a “vendor technology issue” affecting systems that are needed for a flight to be “released” — one of the final key steps before a plane takes off from an airport.

Early circumstances around Tuesday’s outage seemed ominous, reminding travelers of a nightmare scenario that played out two years ago when computer problems fueled a meltdown for Southwest Airlines as it tried to cope with bad weather during the holidays.

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Southwest stranded millions of travelers — and was later ordered to pay a $140 million civil penalty.

Aviation industry veterans like George Hamlin, a consultant, notes that Southwest took the brunt of the blame for the meltdown — but, he adds, “now we’re finding out that it’s a larger, more endemic problem than that.”

Delayed American Airlines passengers who posted to social media Tuesday said pilots blamed the slowdown on a computer system that aims to ensure an optimal center of gravity by balancing planes’ cargo weight and other factors.

Winter weather also threatens to snarl Christmas Eve travel, including storms along the East and West Coasts of the U.S.

The FAA’s operations page shows nearly a dozen airports were deicing planes Tuesday morning, including at Philadelphia International, and Dulles International and Reagan National outside Washington, D.C.

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If you’re flying, the FAA recommends checking your airline’s flight status updates for potential delays. As of 9 a.m. ET, the FlightAware website’s “Misery Map” showed some 544 flights had been delayed and five canceled since 6 a.m. Nearly 120 of those delays were at Charlotte, N.C.’s, airport.

Nearly 12.7 million passengers are expected to fly on American Airlines this winter holiday season, comprising more than 118,000 flights, according to the airline. The most-traveled days in that span are both Fridays, ahead of and just after Christmas.

NPR’s Joel Rose contributed reporting.

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Private equity payouts fell 50% short in 2024

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Private equity payouts fell 50% short in 2024

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Private equity funds cashed out just half the value of investments they typically sell in 2024, the third consecutive year payouts to investors have fallen short because of a deal drought.

Buyout houses typically sell down 20 per cent of their investments in any given year, but industry executives forecast that cash payouts for the year would be about half that figure.

Cambridge Associates, a leading adviser to large institutions on their private equity investments, estimated that funds had fallen about $400bn short in payments to their investors over the past three years compared with historical averages.

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The data underline the increasing pressure on firms to find ways to return cash to investors, including by exiting more investments in the year ahead.

Firms have struggled to strike deals at attractive prices since early 2022, when rising interest rates caused financing costs to soar and corporate valuations to fall.

Dealmakers and their advisers expect that merger and acquisition activity will accelerate in 2025, potentially helping the industry work through what consultancy Bain & Co. has called a “towering backlog” of $3tn in ageing deals that must be sold in the years ahead.

Several large public offerings this year including food transport giant Lineage Logistics, aviation equipment specialist Standard Aero and dermatology group Galderma have provided private equity executives with confidence to take companies public, while Donald Trump’s election has added to Wall Street exuberance.

But Andrea Auerbach, global head of private investments at Cambridge Associates, cautioned that the industry’s issues could take years to work through.

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“There is an expectation that the wheels of the exit market will start to turn. But it doesn’t end in one year, it will take a couple of years,” Auerbach said.

Private equity firms have used novel tactics to return cash to investors while holdings have proved difficult to sell.

They have made increasing use of so-called continuation funds — where one fund sells a stake in one or more portfolio companies to another fund to another fund the firm manages — to engineer exits.

Jefferies forecasts that there will be $58bn of continuation fund deals in 2024, representing a record 14 per cent of all private equity exits. Such funds made up just 5 per cent of all exits in the boom year of 2021, Jefferies found.

But some private equity investors are sceptical that the industry will be able to sell assets at prices close to funds’ current valuations.

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“You have a huge amount of capital that has been invested on assumptions that are no longer valid,” a large industry investor told the Financial Times.

They warned that a record $1tn-plus in buyouts were struck in 2021, just before interest rates rose, and many deals are carried on firms’ books at overly optimistic valuations.

Goldman Sachs recently noted in a report that private equity asset sales, which had historically been done at a premium of at least 10 per cent to funds’ internal valuations, have in recent years been made at discounts of 10-15 per cent.

“[Private] equity in general is still over-marked, which is leading to this situation where assets are still stuck,” said Michael Brandmeyer of Goldman Sachs Asset Management in the report.

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