WISCONSIN (FOX 9) – The Wisconsin Supreme Court race was called for liberal judge Susan Crawford Tuesday evening. Conservative judge Brad Schmiel conceded.

Since liberals will control the court in the swing state for at least several more years, they could leave their mark on key issues.

A lot at stake

The backstory:

The contest for a seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court in the spring election Tuesday was technically a nonpartisan race, but what was at stake was control of the court in a key battleground state.

Two county judges are faced off. The winner, Democratic-backed Susan Crawford had been endorsed by former President Barack Obama and George Soros. Republican-backed candidate Brad Schimel had been endorsed by President Donald Trump and Elon Musk.

How it impacts issues

Why you should care:

The state’s highest court with a liberal majority could impact key issues including congressional redistricting and abortion rights.

Here’s what has been happening with the challenge over Wisconsin’s congressional redistricting. Currently, out of Wisconsin’s eight congressional seats – six are held by Republicans, while Democrats hold two. Critics argue the current congressional district maps do not fairly represent the swing state’s voter makeup. What’s next? Democratic leaders hope with liberal justices in control, this gives them a shot at redrawing Wisconsin’s congressional district boundary lines. If successful, it could potentially put two house seats in play.

Another key issue that dominated the election was abortion rights. Legal status of abortion in the state was unclear after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022. Abortions have since resumed in the state in some capacity. The Wisconsin supreme court is currently deciding whether to reactivate the 1849 abortion law, which essentially bans almost all abortions in the state. Crawford had previously represented Planned Parenthood. So, what’s next? Democrats are hopeful a liberal victory means abortions will be allowed continue in the state – at least for now.

Swearing in

What’s next:

Justice-elect Crawford will be sworn in on Aug. 1.

Donald Trump and the Republicans ought to be wary of a possible blue wave in next year’s midterms. On Tuesday, voters in Florida and Wisconsin signaled dissatisfaction with Elon Musk, the GOP and the president. On the surface, the results spelled political equipoise. No seats changed hands.

A closer look, however, reveals possible headaches for Donald Trump and his party.

In a special election in Florida’s sixth congressional district to fill the vacancy left by Mike Waltz, Trump’s beleaguered national security adviser, voters elected Randy Fine, a Republican state senator, as Waltz’s replacement. Last November, Trump won the district by a whopping 30 points. By contrast, Fine’s margin was about 14 points.

Beyond that, voter turnout was markedly lower than a half-year ago. Talk about underperforming.

Then again, the closeness of the contest came as no surprise to the White House. A poll conducted by Tony Fabrizio, a pollster to the president, actually showed Fine down by four points less than two weeks before the election. Those figures gave Trump and Mike Johnson, the speaker of the House, plenty to worry about.

Fabrizio’s survey also triggered Trump’s decision to pull the nomination of Elise Stefanik as ambassador to the UN. Although she represented a so-called safe GOP district in upstate New York – “Mississippi with icicles”, in the words of one observer – the president was not prepared to take unnecessary chances.

He made the right call, politically speaking. Turns out, Florida’s sixth congressional district was not the only storm cloud in the Sunshine state.

The election to fill the seat vacated by Matt Gaetz, Trump’s first pick for attorney general, in the first congressional district experienced an even larger drop in GOP support. Back in November, Trump garnered a 37-point margin. On Tuesday, Republican Jimmy Patronis carried the district by about 13 points, a 24-point decline.

In hindsight, Trump was right to end Stefanik’s dreams. The GOP dropoffs in Florida’s first and sixth congressional districts signaled that the battle to replace her would have been a nailbiter.

Every vote counts, the saying goes. Quite possibly doubly so in the House. Mike Johnson maintains control by the thinnest of margins. On a good day, the Republicans will now hold 220 seats in the 435-member chamber. The results out of Florida are a warning that his tenure is in jeopardy come January 2027.

Earlier on Tuesday, the House rejected an attempt to thwart an effort to enable new parents to vote remotely. Nine Republicans joined the Democrats to hand the speaker a humiliating loss. Johnson labeled the result “disappointing”. The headline at Axios blared: “Mike Johnson scraps his whole week after brutal defeat”. Apparently, being the party of “traditional family values” doesn’t necessarily translate into support for newborn babies and their moms.

The results of the Tuesday’s House races also bear strong similarities to the special elections of 2017 and 2018. Back then, Democrats ran about 15 points ahead of Hillary Clinton’s performance on election day 2016.

Over in the midwest, voters stuck a finger in the eye of Musk, the king of Doge. Wisconsinites elected the liberal Susan Crawford to a seat on the state supreme court. With more than half the vote counted, she held an insurmountable double-digit lead. Musk’s expenditures of time and money in favor of Brad Schimel, her conservative opponent, were in vain.

In the run-up to the election, Musk handed out $1m checks to voters. In the face of a legal challenge, Musk prevailed, claiming that efforts to restrain his expenditures constituted a violation of his rights under the first amendment.

Just days before the election, Musk also appeared onstage wearing a giant yellow cheese hat. His nod to Wisconsin’s dairy industry and the state’s beloved Green Bay Packers amused the crowd and the denizens of X, the Musk-owned social media platform. Actual voters, however, not as much.

Whether Musk steps back from the spotlight or whether Trump reels him in remains to be seen. Regardless, a Marquette poll shows his favorability ratings to be underwater, 38-60.

With the stock market in the doldrums, stagflation a real possibility and tariffs on tap, Trump and his minions have a real problem. To add to their woes, estimates peg economic growth for the first quarter of 2025 to be in retrograde. Higher prices loom. The rationale for swing voters to cast their lot with Trump dwindle daily.

A trio of elections Tuesday provided early warning signs to Republicans and President Donald Trump at the beginning of an ambitious term, as Democrats rallied against his efforts to slash the federal government and the outsized role being played by billionaire Elon Musk.

In the marquee race for a Wisconsin Supreme Court seat, the conservative judge endorsed by Trump and backed by Musk and his groups to the tune of $21 million lost by a significant margin in a state the president won in November. And while Florida Republicans held two of the most pro-Trump House districts in the country, both candidates also significantly underperformed Trump’s November margins.

The elections — the first major contests since Trump’s return to power — were seen as an early measure of voter sentiment as Trump works with unprecedented speed to dramatically upend the federal government, clashing with the courts and seeking revenge as he tests the bounds of presidential power.

The party that loses the presidency in November typically picks up seats in the next midterm elections, and Tuesday’s results provided hope for Democrats — who have faced a barrage of internal and external criticism about their response to Trump — that they can follow that trend.

Charlie Kirk, the conservative activist and podcaster whose group worked alongside Musk to boost conservative Brad Schimel in Wisconsin, argued Tuesday’s Supreme Court loss underscored a fundamental challenge for Republicans, particularly in races where Trump is not on the ballot.

“We did a lot in Wisconsin, but we fell short. We must realize and appreciate that we are the LOW PROP party now,” he said, referring to low-propensity voters who don’t regularly cast ballots. “The party has been remade. Special elections and off-cycle elections will continue to be a problem without a change of strategy.”

Major shifts in Wisconsin

Trump won Wisconsin in November by 0.8 percentage points, or fewer than 30,000 votes. In the first major test since he took office, the perennial battleground state shifted significantly to the left.

Sauk County, northwest of the state capital of Madison, is a state bellwether. Trump won it in November by 626 votes. Sauk shifted 16 points in the direction of Judge Susan Crawford, the liberal favorite backed by national Democrats and liberal billionaire donors like George Soros.

In addition to strong turnout in Democratic-heavy areas, Crawford did measurably better in the suburban Milwaukee counties that Republicans rely on to run up their margins statewide.

Crawford won Kenosha and Racine counties, both of which went for Trump over Democratic nominee Kamala Harris. She was on pace to win by 9 points.

In interviews with more than 20 voters in Waunakee, a politically mixed town north of Madison, several Democrats suggested without prompting that their vote was as much if not more of a repudiation of Trump’s first months in office as it was a decision on the direction of the state high court.

“This is our chance to say no,” said Linda Grassl, a retired OB-GYN registered nurse, after voting at the Waunakee Public Library corridor Tuesday.

Others disliked the richest man in the world playing such a prominent role.

“I don’t like Elon Musk spending money for an election he should have no involvement in,” said Antonio Gray, a 38-year-old Milwaukee security guard. “They should let the voters vote for who they want to vote for instead of inserting themselves like they have.”

Republicans warn against drawing national conclusions

Former Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker said that part of the challenge for Republicans had been “trying to connect the dots” to turn the state Supreme Court race into one about Trump — a difficult task in a state judicial race.

“If you’re somebody who showed up for Trump because you feel forgotten, you don’t typically show up to vote in” these kinds of elections, he said, imagining voters asking themselves: “What does this have to do with Trump?”

Still, Walker cautioned against reading the tea leaves too closely.

“I’d be a little bit careful about reading too much into what happens nationally,” he said.

Trump had better luck in Florida, where Republican Randy Fine won his special election in the 6th District to replace Rep. Mike Waltz, who stepped down to serve as Trump’s national security adviser. But Fine’s Democratic challenger, Josh Weil, lost by 14 points less than five months after Waltz won the district by 33.

“This is the functional equivalent of Republicans running a competitive race in the district that is represented by Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez,” said House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries beforehand, invoking a liberal favorite whom Trump often denigrates. “Kamala Harris won that district by 30 points. Do you think a Republican would even be competitive in that district in New York, currently held by Alex? Of course, not.”

Jimmy Patronis, the state’s chief financial officer, fended off a challenge from Democrat Gay Valimont to win the northwest Florida seat vacated by Matt Gaetz but also underperformed Gaetz’s last margin of victory.

The pair of wins gave Republicans a 220-213 margin in the House of Representatives, at a time when concerns about a thin GOP majority led Trump to pull the nomination of New York Rep. Elise Stefanik to be United Nations ambassador.

For voters in both districts, the clear draw was Trump.

Teresa Horton, 72, didn’t know much at all about Tuesday’s election — but said she didn’t need to.

“I don’t even know these people that are on there,” she said of her ballot. “I just went with my ticket.”

Brenda Ray, 75, a retired nurse, said she didn’t know a lot about Patronis, either, but cast her ballot for him because she believes he’ll “vote with our president.”

“That’s all we’re looking for,” she said.

Both Patronis and Fine were badly outraised by their Democratic challengers. Michael Whatley, chairman of the Republican National Committee, argued that what was a GOP concern before Tuesday night had been a sign of the party’s strength.

“The American people sent a clear message tonight: they want elected officials who will advance President Trump’s America First agenda, and their votes can’t be bought by national Democrats,” he said in a statement.

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Associated Press writers Stephany Matat in Daytona Beach, Florida, Kate Payne in Pensacola, Christine Fernando in Milwaukee, Mark Vancleave in Eau Claire, Wisconsin, Tom Beaumont in Waunakee, Wisconsin, and Matt Brown in Washington in contributed to this report.