A trio of elections Tuesday provided early warning signs to Republicans and President Donald Trump at the beginning of an ambitious term, as Democrats rallied against his efforts to slash the federal government and the outsized role being played by billionaire Elon Musk.

In the marquee race for a Wisconsin Supreme Court seat, the conservative judge endorsed by Trump and backed by Musk and his groups to the tune of $21 million lost by a significant margin in a state the president won in November. And while Florida Republicans held two of the most pro-Trump House districts in the country, both candidates also significantly underperformed Trump’s November margins.

The elections — the first major contests since Trump’s return to power — were seen as an early measure of voter sentiment as Trump works with unprecedented speed to dramatically upend the federal government, clashing with the courts and seeking revenge as he tests the bounds of presidential power.

The party that loses the presidency in November typically picks up seats in the next midterm elections, and Tuesday’s results provided hope for Democrats — who have faced a barrage of internal and external criticism about their response to Trump — that they can follow that trend.

Charlie Kirk, the conservative activist and podcaster whose group worked alongside Musk to boost conservative Brad Schimel in Wisconsin, argued Tuesday’s Supreme Court loss underscored a fundamental challenge for Republicans, particularly in races where Trump is not on the ballot.

“We did a lot in Wisconsin, but we fell short. We must realize and appreciate that we are the LOW PROP party now,” he said, referring to low-propensity voters who don’t regularly cast ballots. “The party has been remade. Special elections and off-cycle elections will continue to be a problem without a change of strategy.”

Major shifts in Wisconsin

Trump won Wisconsin in November by 0.8 percentage points, or fewer than 30,000 votes. In the first major test since he took office, the perennial battleground state shifted significantly to the left.

Sauk County, northwest of the state capital of Madison, is a state bellwether. Trump won it in November by 626 votes. Sauk shifted 16 points in the direction of Judge Susan Crawford, the liberal favorite backed by national Democrats and liberal billionaire donors like George Soros.

In addition to strong turnout in Democratic-heavy areas, Crawford did measurably better in the suburban Milwaukee counties that Republicans rely on to run up their margins statewide.

Crawford won Kenosha and Racine counties, both of which went for Trump over Democratic nominee Kamala Harris. She was on pace to win by 9 points.

In interviews with more than 20 voters in Waunakee, a politically mixed town north of Madison, several Democrats suggested without prompting that their vote was as much if not more of a repudiation of Trump’s first months in office as it was a decision on the direction of the state high court.

“This is our chance to say no,” said Linda Grassl, a retired OB-GYN registered nurse, after voting at the Waunakee Public Library corridor Tuesday.

Others disliked the richest man in the world playing such a prominent role.

“I don’t like Elon Musk spending money for an election he should have no involvement in,” said Antonio Gray, a 38-year-old Milwaukee security guard. “They should let the voters vote for who they want to vote for instead of inserting themselves like they have.”

Republicans warn against drawing national conclusions

Former Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker said that part of the challenge for Republicans had been “trying to connect the dots” to turn the state Supreme Court race into one about Trump — a difficult task in a state judicial race.

“If you’re somebody who showed up for Trump because you feel forgotten, you don’t typically show up to vote in” these kinds of elections, he said, imagining voters asking themselves: “What does this have to do with Trump?”

Still, Walker cautioned against reading the tea leaves too closely.

“I’d be a little bit careful about reading too much into what happens nationally,” he said.

Trump had better luck in Florida, where Republican Randy Fine won his special election in the 6th District to replace Rep. Mike Waltz, who stepped down to serve as Trump’s national security adviser. But Fine’s Democratic challenger, Josh Weil, lost by 14 points less than five months after Waltz won the district by 33.

“This is the functional equivalent of Republicans running a competitive race in the district that is represented by Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez,” said House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries beforehand, invoking a liberal favorite whom Trump often denigrates. “Kamala Harris won that district by 30 points. Do you think a Republican would even be competitive in that district in New York, currently held by Alex? Of course, not.”

Jimmy Patronis, the state’s chief financial officer, fended off a challenge from Democrat Gay Valimont to win the northwest Florida seat vacated by Matt Gaetz but also underperformed Gaetz’s last margin of victory.

The pair of wins gave Republicans a 220-213 margin in the House of Representatives, at a time when concerns about a thin GOP majority led Trump to pull the nomination of New York Rep. Elise Stefanik to be United Nations ambassador.

For voters in both districts, the clear draw was Trump.

Teresa Horton, 72, didn’t know much at all about Tuesday’s election — but said she didn’t need to.

“I don’t even know these people that are on there,” she said of her ballot. “I just went with my ticket.”

Brenda Ray, 75, a retired nurse, said she didn’t know a lot about Patronis, either, but cast her ballot for him because she believes he’ll “vote with our president.”

“That’s all we’re looking for,” she said.

Both Patronis and Fine were badly outraised by their Democratic challengers. Michael Whatley, chairman of the Republican National Committee, argued that what was a GOP concern before Tuesday night had been a sign of the party’s strength.

“The American people sent a clear message tonight: they want elected officials who will advance President Trump’s America First agenda, and their votes can’t be bought by national Democrats,” he said in a statement.

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Associated Press writers Stephany Matat in Daytona Beach, Florida, Kate Payne in Pensacola, Christine Fernando in Milwaukee, Mark Vancleave in Eau Claire, Wisconsin, Tom Beaumont in Waunakee, Wisconsin, and Matt Brown in Washington in contributed to this report.

MADISON, Wis. (AP) — Majority control of the Wisconsin Supreme Court will be decided Tuesday in a race that broke records for spending and has become a proxy battle for the nation’s political fights, pitting a candidate backed by President Donald Trump against a Democratic-aligned challenger.

Republicans including Trump and the world’s wealthiest person, Elon Musk, lined up behind Brad Schimel, a former state attorney general. Democrats like former President Barack Obama and billionaire megadonor George Soros backed Susan Crawford, a Dane County judge who led legal fights to protect union power and abortion rights and to oppose voter ID.

The first major election in the country since November is seen as a litmus test of how voters feel about Trump’s first months back in office and the role played by Musk, whose Department of Government Efficiency has torn through federal agencies and laid off thousands of workers. Musk traveled to Wisconsin on Sunday to make a pitch for Schimel and personally hand out $1 million checks to two voters.

On Monday, Trump hinted as to why the outcome of the race was important. The court can decide election-related laws and settle disputes over future election outcomes.

“Wisconsin’s a big state politically, and the Supreme Court has a lot to do with elections in Wisconsin,” he told reporters in the Oval Office. “Winning Wisconsin’s a big deal, so therefore the Supreme Court choice … it’s a big race.”

Crawford embraced the backing of Planned Parenthood and other abortion rights advocates, running ads that highlighted Schimel’s opposition to the procedure. She also attacked Schimel for his ties to Trump and Musk, referring to “Elon Schimel” during a debate.

Schimel’s campaign tried to portray Crawford as weak on crime and a puppet of Democrats who, if elected, would push to redraw congressional district boundary lines to hurt Republicans and repeal a GOP-backed state law that took collective bargaining rights away from most public workers.

The winner of the court’s open seat will determine whether it remains under 4-3 liberal control, as it has been since 2023, or reverts to a conservative majority, as it was the 15 years beforehand.

The court will likely be deciding cases on abortion, public sector unions, voting rules and congressional district boundaries. Who controls it also could factor into how it might rule on any future voting challenge in the perennial presidential battleground state — raising the stakes for national Republicans and Democrats.

Groups funded by Musk led all outside spending in the race, pouring more than $21 million into the contest. Donald Trump Jr., the president’s eldest son, campaigned for Schimel in the closing weeks and said electing him was essential to protecting the Republican agenda. And Trump endorsed Schimel 11 days before the election.

Schimel leaned into his support from Trump in the campaign’s waning days while insisting he would not be beholden to the president or Musk despite the massive spending on the race by groups that Musk supports.

Democrats have made that spending central to their messaging.

“Ultimately, I think it’s going to help Susan Crawford, because people do not want to see Elon Musk buying election after election after election,” Wisconsin Democratic Party Chair Ben Wikler said Monday. “If it works here, he’s going to do it all over the country.”

Crawford benefited from campaign stops by Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, the vice presidential nominee last year, and money from billionaire megadonors including Soros and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker.

The contest was the most expensive court race on record in the U.S., with spending exceeding $90 million, according to a tally by the Brennan Center for Justice. That broke the previous record of $51 million record, for the state’s Supreme Court race in 2023.

Wisconsin has a long history of razor-thin presidential votes, but in the last court race two years ago, the liberal candidate won by 11 points. Both sides said they expected a much narrower finish this year.

The winner will be elected to a 10-year term replacing retiring Justice Ann Walsh Bradley.

If Crawford wins, the court stands to remain under liberal control until at least 2028, the next time a liberal justice is on the ballot. If Schimel wins, the majority will once again be on the line next year.

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Reporter Thomas Beaumont contributed from Green Bay, Wisconsin.