For the first time since 2011 versus Gonzaga, BYU is playing a round of 32 game in the NCAA Tournament. Wisconsin, meanwhile, is going for their first Sweet 16 appearance since 2017 after an 85-66 win over Montana. Both teams scored 80+ in their first round game in what could foreshadow a high-scoring game between two of the nation’s best offenses.

You can also check out the Rise and Hoop Podcast where I previewed BYU-Wisconsin.

BYU and Wisconsin by the Numbers

Wisconsin KenPom: 13

NET: 15

AP Rank: 13

Record: 27-9 (13-7 Big 10)

Notable Wins: Arizona (H), UCF (N), PItt (N), Iowa (H/A), Rutgers (A), Minnesota (H/A), Ohio State (H), USC (A), Nebraska (H), Northwestern (A/N), Indiana (H), Purdue (A), Illinois (H), Washington (H), Michigan State (N), UCLA (N), Montana (N)

Losses: Michigan (H/N), Marquette (A), Illinois (A), UCLA (A), Maryland (A), Oregon (H), Michigan State (A), Penn State (H)

BYU KenPom: 23

NET: 25

AP Rank: 17

Record: 25-8 (14-6 Big 12)

Notable Wins: NC State (N), Wyoming (N), Arizona State (H/A), Oklahoma State (H), Colorado (A), Cincinnati (H), Baylor (H), UCF (A), West Virginia (A), Kansas State (H), Kansas (H), Arizona (A), West Virginia (H), Iowa State (A/N), Utah (H), VCU (N)

Losses: Ole Miss (N), Providence (A), Houston (A/N), Texas Tech (H), TCU (A), Utah (A), Arizona (H), Cincinnati (A)

KenPom Prediction: Wisconsin 76, BYU 74 — Wisconsin 58% win probability

FanDuel Spread: Wisconsin -1.5

Point Total: 154.5

Wisconsin Overview

The Badgers are one of the best offensive teams in the nation. The top player to watch is sixth-year senior John Tonje, who was one of two unanimous First-Team All Big 10 selections. The 6-foot-5 guard averages 19 points and 5 rebounds on 46% shooting from the field and 39% from three. Tonje can score in a variety of ways — he averages 6 three-point attempts per game and is adept at drawing fouls and getting to the line. Tonje is 34th nationally in fouls drawn per 40 minutes, and averages 6.5 free throw attempts per game and shoots 91% from the foul line. I believe Tonje is the best guard BYU will have seen up to this point. VJ Edgecombe is a top 5 pick and played great versus BYU, but isn’t as productive as Tonje, and Caleb Love isn’t as consistent Tonje.

Wisconsin’s three starting guards go 6-foot-5, 6-foot-4, and 6-foot-4. John Blackwell is the Badgers second-leading scorer at 15.6 ppg and forms a great duo with Tonje. The sophomore guard shoots 32% from distance and is more streaky than Tonje, but he’s had multiple games this year where he’s made 4+ threes.

What makes Wisconsin different than any other team BYU has seen is the skill set of their starting frontcourt. UW’s two frontcourt starters are 7-foot fifth-year senior Steven Crowl and 6-foot-11 sophomore Nolan Winter. Both players average just under 10 points per game and are adept three-point shooters. Crowl shoots 42% from three on two attempts per game and Winter shoots 37% from three on 2.6 attempts per game. BYU has not seen a frontcourt with that size AND ability to shoot from three.

Wisconsin doesn’t really rely much on their bench for scoring, but they typically run an 8-man rotation. 6-foot senior guard Kamari McGee is leading scorer off the bench with 6.7 ppg and shoots 46% from three.

As a whole, offense is the strength of this Wisconsin team. They rank 13th nationally in KenPom offensive efficiency and rely on the three ball. BYU shoots the most threes in the Big 12 and Wisconsin shoots the most in the Big 10; nearly half the field goal attempts for both teams are from three. Wisconsin shoots 34.8% from three, which is 123 nationally, while BYU shoots 37% from distance.

The Badgers are the best free throw shooting team in the country, shooting 82.7% from the foul line. Five of their top six scorers shoot at least 80% from the line. One component that is not part of Wisconsin’s offense is offensive rebounding. The Badgers rebound 28% of their misses, which is 237 nationally in offensive rebound percentage. VCU ranked 12th nationally in offensive rebound percentage going into the BYU game, rebounding more than 36% of their misses.

The Badgers are known for their offensive, but their defensive ratings are stout. In fact, Wisconsin ranks 24th nationally in KenPom defensive efficiency, which is three spots ahead of VCU. Wisconsin’s defensive philosophy is completely different than VCU’s.

VCU is a pressure defense who relied on forcing turnovers, and that is not UW’s identity. Wisconsin has one of the lowest defensive turnover percentages nationally, ranking 332 with a 14.4% defensive turnover percentage. What the Badgers do well is rebound and protect the rim. They don’t get many blocks, but their two seven footers can congest the paint and make shots difficult around the rim. In addition to not forcing turnovers, Wisconsin can be a susceptible at times to the three ball. Wisconsin in Big 10 play allowed opponents to shoot 35% from three, which was 12th in the Big 10.

Four Under-the-Radar Storylines

Keba Keita vs UW Frontcourt

I am fascinated to see how Kevin Young uses Keba Keita this game. Wisconsin’s front court is skilled and neither starters are statues, but they aren’t athletic like most of the Big 12 frontcourts; they are a stereotypical Big 10 frontcourt is some ways.

I imagine Kevin Young will spread the floor with three shooters and then ruthlessly put Egor Demin and Keba Keita in PNR situations to see if 7-foot, 250 pound center Steven Crowl can cover the space to slow down Egor and cover Keba. In BYU’s blowout win over Kansas, Keba abused Hunter Dickinson in PNR situations and Dicksinson; I imagine BYU will try to do the same versus the Badgers. Wisconsin has seen some really good big men in the Big 10, but no one with the athleticism that Keba has.

Will Boskovic get more minutes?

Fouss will get minutes and I think he will be successful. Wisconsin doesn’t double-team the post a ton, and I trust Fouss to score one-one-one versus just about anyone in the country. Fouss has showed he can score against bigger players one-and-one. Boskovic could get some more run here though for defensive purposes. Both Wisconsin bigs can shoot the three, and Boskovic could get some minutes if Fouss struggles to get out on the perimeter. Boskovic is more adept there and wouldn’t give up a ton of size down low. I expect Fouss to get a healthy dosage of minutes, but I think Boskovic carves out a role this game.

Can Mawot Mag slow down John Tonje?

Mag had the main assignment on A10 POY Max Shulga and had Shulga in a straight jacket. Shulga had zero two-point attempts and was uncomfortable all game when guarded by Mag. Mag has been matched up against top opposing guards all year and has routinely slowed them down. Tonje may be his toughest test yet. If Mag can make Tonje take difficult shots and/or limit his attempts, he may be the top reason why BYU is able to come out with a victory.

Is Kanon Catchings an under-the-radar x-factor?

Catchings came through in Big 12 play when it was not expected. In his three conference games with double-digit points, he had multiple games preceding with single-digit outputs. Catchings played four minutes versus VCU to at least get his feet coming off his knee injury versus West Virginia a few weeks ago. I’m not counting on Kanon to come through big, but he has some things going in his favor. Kevin Young is all about exploiting mismatches, and Kanon can do that versus Wisconsin. Nate Winter is 6-foot-11 and plays the four in Wisconsin’s starting lineup. I could see KY putting in Kanon to force that matchup and then give Kanon some off-ball screening action to force Winter to chase him around the perimeter. That isn’t Winter’s strong suit and could open up a handful of Kanon looks. Even two threes from Kanon could be a difference in this game. So if you want a deep cut x-factor, I’ll go with Kanon Catchings.

Prediction

VCU stylistically on paper was a tougher matchup for BYU than Wisconsin, but the Badgers are a better team and will be a tougher game for BYU. Their offense is as good as BYU has seen this season and their defense is big and sound.

I expect a offensive-centric game versus two offenses that rank top 15 nationally. Both teams are playing well and this could prove to be the most entertaining second round game. John Tonje presents a huge challenge for BYU and could single-handedly win this game.

Since I force myself to pick a winner, I’ll side with BYU for some of the reasons I highlighted above. 1) I think Mag can slow down Tonje just enough to prevent him from taking over this game, 2) Keba can present matchup problems to Wisconsin’s front court, and 3) Wisconsin’s lack of defensive pressure will give BYU additional shot attempts and allow Egor Demin and Dallin Hall to play a bit more free.

Prediction: BYU 85, Wisconsin 83

*Record Straight Up: 26-8

*Record Against the Spread: 18-16

* I’ll make a prediction for every game and track my record through the season