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Ohio State vs. Purdue score prediction by expert football model

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Ohio State vs. Purdue score prediction by expert football model


Big Ten football gets underway this weekend as reigning national champion and No. 1 ranked Ohio State looks to preserve its undefeated record on the road against Purdue on Saturday.

Purdue is yet to win a game in Big Ten competition this season, but has some experience upsetting Ohio State at home, notably pulling off a stunning 49-20 result back in 2018.

What do the analytics predict as the Buckeyes and Boilermakers meet in this Big Ten clash?

For that, we turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Ohio State and Purdue compare in this Week 11 college football game, and use it to lock in our own projection.

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As expected, the simulations strongly favor the Buckeyes over the Boilers in this one.

SP+ predicts that Ohio State will defeat Purdue by a projected score of 40 to 11 and will win the game by an expected margin of 29.3 points in the process.

The model gives the Buckeyes a near-perfect 97 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 263-253 against the spread with a 55.8 win percentage. Last week, it was 29-23 (55.8%) in its picks against the spread.

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The betting markets predictably like the Buckeyes by several scores.

Ohio State is a 29.5 point favorite against Purdue, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 48.5 points for the matchup, and set the moneyline odds for Ohio State at -10000 and for Purdue at +3000 to win outright.

Ohio State arrives with an ironclad defense that allows fewer than seven points per game and a sharply efficient offense.

Purdue, still rebuilding and winless in Big Ten play, simply doesn’t have the firepower or consistency to mount a reliable challenge.

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Expect the Buckeyes to dominate tempo early, flip into cruise mode in the second half, and seal a comprehensive victory while Purdue scraps hard but falls short.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks

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MSU football to host highly-coveted Ohio OT prospect in April

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MSU football to host highly-coveted Ohio OT prospect in April


Michigan State football will host a highly-coveted offensive lineman from Ohio for an unofficial visit in April.

Dominic Black of New Madison, Ohio will reportedly visit Michigan State in mid-April for an unofficial visit, according to Bleed Green MSU. Black will visit Michigan State on April 16, and also has upcoming visits lined up with Ohio State (March 28) and Virginia Tech (April 11).

Black is currently an unranked and unrated offensive tackle in the 2027 class. He is listed at 6-foot-5 and 290 pounds, and plays for Tri-village High.

While Black may not be ranked at the moment, he certainly will be at some point based on the number of schools that have already offered him. According to 247Sports, he holds offers from Michigan State, Boston College, Maryland, Minnesota, Kentucky, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, West Virginia and a host of group of six schools.

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Contact/Follow us @The SpartansWire on X (formerly Twitter) and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Michigan State news, notes and opinion. You can also follow Robert Bondy on X @RobertBondy5.





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OHSWCA Division II state duals 2026: Who won? How NE Ohio fared

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OHSWCA Division II state duals 2026: Who won? How NE Ohio fared


CLEVELAND, Ohio — West Geauga placed sixth at the 2026 OHSWCA Division II State Dual Championships after battling through three competitive matches at Bishop Watterson High School on Saturday.

Columbus DeSales captured the state championship with a 42-27 victory over Bishop Watterson.

The Wolverines opened tournament action with a narrow 38-33 loss to New Lexington in the quarterfinals. West Geauga then rebounded in the consolation bracket, defeating Canfield 44-29 before falling to Bellevue 45-33 in the fifth-place match.

Several West Geauga wrestlers delivered consistent performances throughout the day. Caden Kaleal earned three victories at 120 pounds, including two technical falls and one pin. Brian Denamen, Austin Wheatley, and Maveric Milnar each secured three wins across the three duals.

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Against Canfield, the middle and upper weight classes carried the Wolverines to victory. Zander Joltin at 138 pounds and Daniel Russell at 144 pounds recorded pins, joining Denamen at 165, Wheatley at 175, and Milnar at 285 in the pin column.

Blake Welker contributed wins at 190 pounds in two of the three matches.

In the championship dual, Bishop Watterson rallied late behind James Krzyzewski at 175, Landon Lucas at 190, Michael Boyle at 215, and A.J. DeMassimo at 285 but couldn’t overcome the early deficit.

DeSales won seven of the first eight matches to build a commanding lead, with Josh Sheets at 126 pounds, Deakin Cygan at 132, and Grayson Debevoise at 138 earning pins.

West Holmes claimed third place in the tournament’s closest finish, edging New Lexington 34-33. Dylan Sours clinched the victory for West Holmes with a pin in the heavyweight bout.

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New Lexington finished fourth. Tyson Spicer at 144 pounds and Harrison Ratliff at 150 recorded key wins in the third-place dual.

See complete results from Saturday’s event.



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Ohio’s squirrel tax of 1807 relevant to today’s property tax debate

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Ohio’s squirrel tax of 1807 relevant to today’s property tax debate


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  • Governments often use taxes to discourage certain activities and tax exemptions to encourage others.
  • Ohio once implemented a squirrel tax in 1807 to control the population, rewarding residents with tax breaks for squirrel skins.
  • Modern examples include “sin taxes” on items like alcohol and tobacco, and tax exemptions for agriculture and manufacturing.

Ohio once had a squirrel tax. No kidding.

The legislature made a quota for every property owner. To reduce the out of control squirrel population in 1807, Ohio would exempt your property tax bill for every squirrel skin one provided as proof of squirrel population reduction.

Ohio has an agricultural value reduction program to reduce property tax on land used for agriculture. Manufacturing equipment is automatically exempt from sales and use tax.

Thus, the pattern has been clear for 220 years: Tax what you don’t want. Exempt what you do.

Taxes can be both counterproductive and counter intuitive.

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ONE THOUGHT: Tax what you don’t want

Taxes on alcohol, tobacco, and cannabis are “sin” taxes designed to generate revenue on things that government wishes to discourage.

Ohio’s 1807 squirrel tax is a shining example. Bring us your squirrel skins or pay more tax.

Arguably, some local places in Ohio have purposely taxed themselves more in order to keep certain real estate investments out.

SECOND THOUGHT: Exempt what you do want

Exemptions for job-creating globally-competitive capital investment just makes sense.

Ohio automatically reduces property taxes on agriculture land and has for decades. It’s called CAUV. Tax farmland more? You’ll get less farmland.

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Trade this year’s revenue for a longer-term future of more revenue is the biggest point with local property tax exemption authority.

Trade incremental property tax one year for greater income tax now and in the future.

THIRD THOUGHT: Watching the great tax debate in Ohio

Though action has been taken from the Ohio General Assembly, there could be more to come in the debate sparked by rising property taxes. And it’s not just property taxes in play. Talk about redirecting local income taxes, removing sales tax exemptions, and curbing real estate tax diversions are among the items open for debate. Should an over $20 billion hole emerge in Ohio’s collective state and local tax portfolio from a possible statewide referendum, there’s nothing off the table.

That’s why the principle from 1807 is key to remember.

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Tax what you don’t want. Exempt what you do.

By the way, that Ohio squirrel tax had to be repealed in 1808, because it worked. The squirrel population was decimated and taxpayers were afraid they couldn’t gather enough squirrel skins to avoid the tax.

Rick Platt is President and CEO of the Heath-Newark-Licking County Port Authority with over three decades of experience in Ohio industrial development. He is a board member of JobsOhio.



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