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How El Niño could impact the rest of winter and into spring in ND when compared to long-term trends

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How El Niño could impact the rest of winter and into spring in ND when compared to long-term trends


BISMARCK, N.D. (KFYR) – El Niño usually means milder winter temperatures in the Northern Plains and that was certainly the case in December. But what might be in store for the rest of winter and even into spring?

El Niño’s signal of warmth in the Pacific Ocean is evident and its strength is a big factor in our long-term outlook. But it’s not the only one.

An El Niño, with warmer water in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, usually means milder temperatures in the Northern Plains for the winter as a whole(KFYR)

We average out the past 30 years to get our climate normals, but those change over time.

“I think people who have lived in North Dakota for a while now have really started to notice the shifting of the seasons that we’re seeing with those longer-term trends. Warming in the fall and extending the plant season on that end with the harvest. But then winter seems to stick around in the spring a lot longer than we want it to and it’s kind of delaying that spring plant season,” said Megan Jones, a meteorologist at the Bismarck National Weather Service.

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Shifting seasons: recent springs have been cooler, while recent falls have been warmer. This...
Shifting seasons: recent springs have been cooler, while recent falls have been warmer. This compares the 1981-2010 climate normals to the 1991-2020 seasonal normals.(Climate Central)

“When you look at the winter as a whole, there’s not really a strong trend across North Dakota. When you start looking at the month-by-month, December is pretty neutral, January’s warming a little bit, but then you start to see a strong cooling trend in February, specifically. And I think if you’re thinking back to the past couple of winters, it seems like February is always the worst month. And then as we go into the spring, when we got the new climate normals for 1991-2020, there was a pretty noticeable cooling trend,” said Jones.

Average temperature trends over the past 30 years by month from November through April. The...
Average temperature trends over the past 30 years by month from November through April. The trend of seeing warmer Novembers and Januarys in ND is evident as well as much colder Februarys over this period.(NOAA/NCEI)

The peak of El Niño might be occurring, which needs to be closely monitored to overcome the long-term climate trends.

“If the El Niño is strong enough to kind of keep us a little bit warmer and maybe shake off winter sooner than what we’ve had the past couple years, but sometimes the longer-term trends win out and we’ll be stuck with not quite spring conditions a little bit longer than we want,” said Jones.

The current outlook still slightly favors above normal temperatures, but as you get further into the spring season, that probability really starts to lessen.

Seasonal temperature outlooks for the three month periods of February-March-April,...
Seasonal temperature outlooks for the three month periods of February-March-April, March-April-May and April-May-June(KFYR/CPC)

“There’s always talk about warm and dry, cold and wet. A lot of the time, we don’t get those paired together necessarily. One of the things that we’ve seen from the historical El Niños, the stronger ones, the past two strong El Niños have been warm in the spring but they’ve also been wet. So it doesn’t necessarily mean snow, but it also doesn’t necessarily mean dry,” said Jones.

Past eight strong El Niño years and their impacts on snowfall, temperatures, and...
Past eight strong El Niño years and their impacts on snowfall, temperatures, and precipitation. Our current El Niño is a strong one.(NWS Bismarck/Megan Jones)

Even if it’s rain, hopefully, that helps farmers to get into the fields sooner in the spring and ranchers with calving than the past two years that featured blizzards in April.

Near normal precipitation is expected for late winter and into spring, but it only takes the track of one storm to make a difference.

Seasonal precipitation outlooks for the three month periods of February-March-April,...
Seasonal precipitation outlooks for the three month periods of February-March-April, March-April-May and April-May-June(KFYR/CPC)



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North Dakota

Video: A look at North Dakota’s 2026-2028 Fishing Guide

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Video: A look at North Dakota’s 2026-2028 Fishing Guide


Greg Power, fisheries division chief with the North Dakota Game and Fish Department, shares information about the new 2026-2028 Fishing Guide and a few new regulations starting April 1, 2026.

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Summit League tournament: Omaha women bounce North Dakota

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Summit League tournament: Omaha women bounce North Dakota


SIOUX FALLS — Ali Stephens had 17 points and 13 rebounds and 8th-seeded Omaha defeated 9th-seeded North Dakota 49-39 in the first round of the Summit League women’s tournament.

The Fighting Hawks had a tough time putting the ball in the hoop all night long, scoring just three points in the first quarter and having only marginally better luck from there.

UND (7-24) shot just 23.5 percent from the floor (12-for-51) and made 1-of-20 shots from outside the arc. Walker Demers and Mackenzie Hughes had 10 points each to lead the Hawks, with Demers adding eight rebounds.

Members of the Omaha women’s basketball team cheer for their teammates during the opening game of the Summit League tournament on March 4, 2026 at the Premier Center in Sioux Falls.

Matt Zimmer/Sioux Falls Live

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Regan Juenemann had 10 points and five rebounds for the Mavericks while Avril Smith had seven points and 16 rebounds and Sarai Estupinan eight points, five assists and three rebounds. Omaha (6-26) shot the ball slightly better than the Hawks, going 16-of-53 from the field (30 percent) and 8-of-23 (35 percent) on 3-pointers.

With the win, the Mavs earn a date with top-seed North Dakota State on Thursday at 2:30 p.m.
The Bison won both regular season matchups by more than 50 points.

030426-IMG_7760.JPG
North Dakota’s Mataeya Mathern goes up for a shot during the opening game of the Summit League tournament on March 4, 2026 at the Premier Center in Sioux Falls.

Matt Zimmer/Sioux Falls Live

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Oral Roberts 84, Kansas City 62 — Don’t look now but the team that started the conference season 0-10 and at one point lost 15 of 16 games might be the hottest in the Summit League.

Oral Roberts picked up their fourth straight victory on Wednesday night in the conference tournament opener, routing Kansas City at the Premier Center in the 8/9 “play-in” game.

Ty Harper had 22 points to lead the Golden Eagles (10-22), who took a 44-21 lead by halftime and never looked back. ORU shot 50 percent from the floor and made 13-of-27 3-pointers while the Kangaroos shot just 34 percent and made 6-of-24 from deep. Martins Kilups had 17 points for the Eagles and Connor Dow added 14.

Jayson Petty had 14 points to lead the Kagaroos, who finish the season 4-27. It was their final game under coach Marvin Menzies, whom the school announced earlier this season would not return next year.

With the win ORU advances to face top-seed North Dakota State on Thursday at 6 p.m.
The Golden Eagles lost to NDSU 86-58 in Tulsa on Jan. 24 but they took the Bison to overtime in Fargo on Jan. 3 in a 79-77 loss.

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Matt Zimmer

Matt Zimmer is a Sioux Falls native and longtime sports writer. He graduated from Washington High School where he played football, legion baseball and developed his lifelong love of the Minnesota Twins and Vikings. After graduating from St. Cloud State University, he returned to Sioux Falls, and began a long career in amateur baseball and sports reporting. Email Matt at mzimmer@siouxfallslive.com.





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The North Dakota Attorney General issued an opinion to the ND State Auditor – North Dakota Attorney General

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The North Dakota Attorney General issued an opinion to the ND State Auditor

March 4, 2026

Media Contact: Suzie Weigel, 701.328.2210

BISMARCK, ND – It is the opinion that federal law does not prevent the state from auditing P&A and even though P&A possesses confidential records, N.D.C.C. § 54-10-22.1 and 42 C.F.R. § 51.45(c) authorize the state auditor and the employees of the auditor’s office, to review the records without detriment to P &A.

Also, whether Rule 1.6 of the North Dakota Rules of Professional Conduct for licensed attorneys prohibits P&A from disclosing to the State Auditor the contents of a client file for the purpose of conducting a non-financial performance audit under N.D.C.C. ch. 54-10 when the requested file includes information about individuals and businesses in the private sector who chose to contact P &A.

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This issue was already addressed in a 1995 opinion of this office regarding P&A. The 1995 opinion highlighted that P&A has authority to contract with private attorneys to represent private individuals. 17 During that performance audit, auditors asked to see billings from the contracted attorneys. 18 P&A redacted the names of the individuals represented by the contract attorneys under the rules for attorney-client privilege or attorney-client confidentiality. 19 The names of individuals seeking services of P&A are protected under N.D.C.C. § 25-01.3. The opinion stated:

Thus, P&A’s records which indicate to whom its services were provided are available to the State Auditor for performance audit purposes. The State Auditor has
been given access by P&A to its records other than the attorney’s billings. Therefore, the State Auditor already has access to the names of the persons to whom P&A
provides services. State law requires that the State Auditor and his employees must keep such information confidential.

Here, P&A has not identified a specific record. Given that, I rely on the past opinions declaring that records made confidential by N.D.C.C. § 25-01.3-10 are available under N.D.C.C. § 54-10-22 to the State Auditor and the Auditor’s employees for audit purposes.

Link to opinion 2026-L-01

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