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How El Niño could impact the rest of winter and into spring in ND when compared to long-term trends

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How El Niño could impact the rest of winter and into spring in ND when compared to long-term trends


BISMARCK, N.D. (KFYR) – El Niño usually means milder winter temperatures in the Northern Plains and that was certainly the case in December. But what might be in store for the rest of winter and even into spring?

El Niño’s signal of warmth in the Pacific Ocean is evident and its strength is a big factor in our long-term outlook. But it’s not the only one.

An El Niño, with warmer water in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, usually means milder temperatures in the Northern Plains for the winter as a whole(KFYR)

We average out the past 30 years to get our climate normals, but those change over time.

“I think people who have lived in North Dakota for a while now have really started to notice the shifting of the seasons that we’re seeing with those longer-term trends. Warming in the fall and extending the plant season on that end with the harvest. But then winter seems to stick around in the spring a lot longer than we want it to and it’s kind of delaying that spring plant season,” said Megan Jones, a meteorologist at the Bismarck National Weather Service.

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Shifting seasons: recent springs have been cooler, while recent falls have been warmer. This...
Shifting seasons: recent springs have been cooler, while recent falls have been warmer. This compares the 1981-2010 climate normals to the 1991-2020 seasonal normals.(Climate Central)

“When you look at the winter as a whole, there’s not really a strong trend across North Dakota. When you start looking at the month-by-month, December is pretty neutral, January’s warming a little bit, but then you start to see a strong cooling trend in February, specifically. And I think if you’re thinking back to the past couple of winters, it seems like February is always the worst month. And then as we go into the spring, when we got the new climate normals for 1991-2020, there was a pretty noticeable cooling trend,” said Jones.

Average temperature trends over the past 30 years by month from November through April. The...
Average temperature trends over the past 30 years by month from November through April. The trend of seeing warmer Novembers and Januarys in ND is evident as well as much colder Februarys over this period.(NOAA/NCEI)

The peak of El Niño might be occurring, which needs to be closely monitored to overcome the long-term climate trends.

“If the El Niño is strong enough to kind of keep us a little bit warmer and maybe shake off winter sooner than what we’ve had the past couple years, but sometimes the longer-term trends win out and we’ll be stuck with not quite spring conditions a little bit longer than we want,” said Jones.

The current outlook still slightly favors above normal temperatures, but as you get further into the spring season, that probability really starts to lessen.

Seasonal temperature outlooks for the three month periods of February-March-April,...
Seasonal temperature outlooks for the three month periods of February-March-April, March-April-May and April-May-June(KFYR/CPC)

“There’s always talk about warm and dry, cold and wet. A lot of the time, we don’t get those paired together necessarily. One of the things that we’ve seen from the historical El Niños, the stronger ones, the past two strong El Niños have been warm in the spring but they’ve also been wet. So it doesn’t necessarily mean snow, but it also doesn’t necessarily mean dry,” said Jones.

Past eight strong El Niño years and their impacts on snowfall, temperatures, and...
Past eight strong El Niño years and their impacts on snowfall, temperatures, and precipitation. Our current El Niño is a strong one.(NWS Bismarck/Megan Jones)

Even if it’s rain, hopefully, that helps farmers to get into the fields sooner in the spring and ranchers with calving than the past two years that featured blizzards in April.

Near normal precipitation is expected for late winter and into spring, but it only takes the track of one storm to make a difference.

Seasonal precipitation outlooks for the three month periods of February-March-April,...
Seasonal precipitation outlooks for the three month periods of February-March-April, March-April-May and April-May-June(KFYR/CPC)



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North Dakota’s delicate electricity price balance faces challenges

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North Dakota’s delicate electricity price balance faces challenges


BISMARCK — As an energy exporter blessed with abundant supply, North Dakota consistently ranks among the cheapest states in the country when it comes to residential, commercial and industrial electricity rates.

Exploding costs of transmission, the build out and replacement of transmission infrastructure and the increase in energy load have helped push residential electricity prices modestly higher in recent years, however.

Average residential per kilowatt-hour of power increased by nearly 30% in the state between 2020 and 2024.

A recent study by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory showed North Dakota actually had the largest decrease in average retail industrial and commercial electricity prices in the country over that span, with flat or slightly lower rates for residential users, when adjusted for inflation.

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Most of the real cost rise is due to the increased expense of transmission as well as materials, build outs, generation and transportation needed to keep up with energy demand and to replace aging systems.

Take transformers for example: they cost 70-100% more now than five years ago, according to International Energy Agency data. Aluminum and copper wiring is up to 50% more costly. Labor costs have also increased by around 20-40%.

“Four or five years ago, it was $400,000 a mile to build a transmission line. Now it’s $2 million a mile,” said Josh Kramer, executive vice president and general manager at North Dakota Association of Rural Electric Cooperatives. “Generation used to cost about $800 a kilowatt. Now it’s $2,700 a kilowatt.”

The cost of nearly every input into the energy transmission and maintenance system rose, on average, as much as 50%, he said.

State Sen. Dale Patten, R-Watford City, said replacement and upgrade costs of infrastructure are also one key component, particularly to improve resilience against severe weather events in rural areas.

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“A lot of the existing infrastructure is old, 50-, 60-, 70-years-old in some cases, and the cost of replacing it is not cheap,” said Patten, who chairs the Legislature’s Energy and Natural Resources Committee.

Rising costs and inflation also pressure electricity rates in North Dakota. Downed power lines and utility poles and associated equipment costs, on average 25-50% more now than just five years ago to replace.

Contributed / North Dakota Association of Rural Electric Cooperatives

Population growth and shifts in that growth toward the main cities in the state are also a driver, he said.

“You have to build the infrastructure to support that population growth and that corresponding economic growth,” Patten said.

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Another major driver is transmission costs.

“As we look at the regulated utilities when they come in for rate cases, it seems like one of the areas where their costs are exploding the most is transmission,” said Public Service Commission commissioner Randy Christmann. “Transmission costs are exploding.”

Christmann said some of the blame goes to build out of remote renewables projects in the wider region, as well as the closure of coal fired power plants around the county leading to increased load on North Dakota power providers as regional transmission organizations spread costs around.

In 2024, North Dakota exported around 32% of generated electricity and exported 85% of natural gas extracted, according to the Department of Commerce.

Adding large loads onto the grid across the country at the same time as all of these other cost increases has spiked energy prices in most other locations.

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So far, North Dakota has dodged that for the most part, even as its lower electricity rates are attractive to industrial operations looking to add large loads in the system.

Large loads can include everything from operations like data centers, to oil refineries, to agricultural processing facilities and even the capital complex in Bismarck. Currently, there are 23 larger data centers in North Dakota.

When it comes to data centers, North Dakota has managed to add those large loads without jacking up electricity prices for consumers.

There are concerns about whether that can continue to be the case.

“I have seen them have very adverse impacts and very positive impacts,” said Christmann. “It depends on the details of the specific data center.”

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Managing that going forward will be a challenge for the commission and legislators.

State Rep. Anna Novak, R-Hazen, is currently leading the Legislature’s interim Energy Development and Transmission Committee to study large loads such as data centers and try to find a way to balance attracting those projects without overburdening other electricity consumers.

“We need to strike a balance of making sure that we’re open for business, but that we have a strong vetting process,” Novak said. “I think that the vetting process is getting better.”

Besides cheaper electricity prices and available power, the policy and regulatory climate in the state is also attractive for tech companies looking to site a data center.

Construction workers build the Applied Digital data center on Monday, Nov. 10, 2025, north of Fargo.
Construction workers build the Applied Digital data center on Monday, Nov. 10, 2025, north of Fargo.

Chris Flynn / The Forum

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Data centers are also attracted to North Dakota’s readily available water supply and cooler temperatures, which cut operating costs.

Novak said cost savings for data centers choosing to locate here can amount to the billions.

“We are certainly a desirable place to put a data center,” Novak said.

The most well-known data center in the state, Applied Digital’s facilities near Ellendale, has become a case study for how to add a large load while keeping the local impact minimal and also providing benefits across the state.

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By tapping into stranded power that was not being adequately used and making the capital investments on that instead of passing it to the utilities, the project has been able to actually decrease electricity rates for Montana-Dakota Utilities consumers across the state.

“We had involvement in that, in making sure that this big additional load was not only going to just not be detrimental to customers, but actually be very beneficial.” Christmann. “Every single MDU customer in North Dakota is benefiting because of that facility on their electric rate.”

121625.N.NDNC.ElectricityRates3
North Dakota electric cooperative lineworkers participate in hotline school at the Lineworker Training Center in Mandan in May 2025. The essential training prepares apprenticeship and journeyman lineworkers to safely work on energized power lines.

Contributed / North Dakota Association of Rural Electric Cooperatives

Darcy Neigum, vice president of electric supply for Montana-Dakota Utilities, said that customers saved around $70 last year because of the facility, and once it is fully built out, savings could come out to around $250 per year per customer.

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“We’re very aware of the rates we’re charging to our customers and the rate impacts,” Neigum said. “The approach that we took (with the Ellendale facility) was to try to find some way to create value instead of just putting costs on customers.”

Insulating consumers from costs

Investor-owned utilities like MDU as well as electric cooperatives like Basin Electric Power and Minnkota are all trying to figure out how to manage large loads going forward.

Basin Electric adopted a large load program in June as a way to minimize rate impacts for cooperative members and reduce the risk of stranded assets that come with single projects looking for 50, 100 or more megawatts of power in the future. Minnkota Power Cooperative has also adopted a similar policy.

“So, when we have those inquiries coming in, whether it’s a large tech company or a large industrial load, we’re saying we want to serve you, but to do that you’re going to have to bear the costs associated with it,” Kramer said. “That goes for if they need to add more infrastructure or generation or engineering studies.”

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MDU’s Neigum said the company doesn’t have a formal policy yet, but the uptick in interest in adding large loads may necessitate one.

“We do have a process we go through, and we’re kind of formalizing some of that, because there are just so many requests,” Neigum said.

One delicate aspect in all of this is putting into place policies that protect consumers or co-op members from additional costs without scaring quality projects away from the state.

Kramer said that’s not necessarily a bad thing.

“It’s probably helped separate the wheat from the chaff a bit,” Kramer said.

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The North Dakota News Cooperative is a non-profit news organization providing reliable and independent reporting on issues and events that impact the lives of North Dakotans. The organization increases the public’s access to quality journalism and advances news literacy across the state. For more information about NDNC or to make a charitable contribution, please visit newscoopnd.org.

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As ACA tax credits expire, a North Dakota rural hospital braces for 2026

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As ACA tax credits expire, a North Dakota rural hospital braces for 2026


BISMARCK, N.D. (KFYR) – With federal health care tax credits set to expire, rural hospitals in the state warn the ripple effect could strain their budgets while they are already operating on thin margins.

The Emergency Department at Jamestown Regional Medical Center is gearing up for more patients to come into their doors, uninsured, starting Jan. 1.

“We could be affected as early as January of the coming year. So it would happen very, very quickly. And nobody really knows what’s going to happen,” said Mike Delfs, the CEO of Jamestown Regional Medical Center.

Many rural residents are on the Affordable Care Act marketplace. Since premiums are predicted to spike significantly, some people will drop insurance, and they will be forced to go to the ER when they get sick. Hospitals cannot refuse emergency patients, and will have to shoulder the cost on thin margins.

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“We would be looking at anticipated bad debt, but to what degree we don’t even know, and it is kind of scary to think about,” said Delfs.

Hospital leadership and staff say that the uncertainty is wearing on them, on top of the common stressors rural providers have to deal with.

As of now, they say their best bet is to hope that Congress can put aside partisan differences and come up with a solution.

“We have real people who are either going to lose their insurance or its going to get so expensive they literally can’t afford it. And the downstream effect of that is now you are endangering hospitals in rural locations just by their mere viability,” said Delfs.

According to hospital leadership, without congressional action in 2026, the end of the year could leave the hospital with nearly one million dollars in unpaid medical bills.

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North Dakota’s Republican congressional delegation says the Rural Health Transformation Fund will greatly benefit rural hospitals and blames democrats for voting against their healthcare plan.



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Pepperdine hosts North Dakota State following Koenen’s 22-point game

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Pepperdine hosts North Dakota State following Koenen’s 22-point game


North Dakota State Bison (8-2) at Pepperdine Waves (7-2)

Malibu, California; Tuesday, 5 p.m. EST

BOTTOM LINE: North Dakota State visits Pepperdine after Avery Koenen scored 22 points in North Dakota State’s 83-55 victory against the Eastern Illinois Panthers.

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The Waves are 4-0 on their home court. Pepperdine is 1-0 when it turns the ball over less than its opponents and averages 18.2 turnovers per game.

The Bison are 3-0 on the road. North Dakota State scores 77.4 points and has outscored opponents by 15.3 points per game.

Pepperdine averages 8.1 made 3-pointers per game, 2.8 more made shots than the 5.3 per game North Dakota State gives up. North Dakota State averages 6.2 made 3-pointers per game this season, 1.1 fewer made shots on average than the 7.3 per game Pepperdine allows.

TOP PERFORMERS: Seleh Harmon averages 2.7 made 3-pointers per game for the Waves, scoring 10.4 points while shooting 44.4% from beyond the arc. Elli Guiney is shooting 47.3% and averaging 14.4 points.

Molly Lenz averages 1.7 made 3-pointers per game for the Bison, scoring 7.8 points while shooting 39.5% from beyond the arc. Koenen is averaging 18.2 points, 10 rebounds and 1.6 steals.

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The Associated Press created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.



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