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How El Niño could impact the rest of winter and into spring in ND when compared to long-term trends

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How El Niño could impact the rest of winter and into spring in ND when compared to long-term trends


BISMARCK, N.D. (KFYR) – El Niño usually means milder winter temperatures in the Northern Plains and that was certainly the case in December. But what might be in store for the rest of winter and even into spring?

El Niño’s signal of warmth in the Pacific Ocean is evident and its strength is a big factor in our long-term outlook. But it’s not the only one.

An El Niño, with warmer water in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, usually means milder temperatures in the Northern Plains for the winter as a whole(KFYR)

We average out the past 30 years to get our climate normals, but those change over time.

“I think people who have lived in North Dakota for a while now have really started to notice the shifting of the seasons that we’re seeing with those longer-term trends. Warming in the fall and extending the plant season on that end with the harvest. But then winter seems to stick around in the spring a lot longer than we want it to and it’s kind of delaying that spring plant season,” said Megan Jones, a meteorologist at the Bismarck National Weather Service.

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Shifting seasons: recent springs have been cooler, while recent falls have been warmer. This...
Shifting seasons: recent springs have been cooler, while recent falls have been warmer. This compares the 1981-2010 climate normals to the 1991-2020 seasonal normals.(Climate Central)

“When you look at the winter as a whole, there’s not really a strong trend across North Dakota. When you start looking at the month-by-month, December is pretty neutral, January’s warming a little bit, but then you start to see a strong cooling trend in February, specifically. And I think if you’re thinking back to the past couple of winters, it seems like February is always the worst month. And then as we go into the spring, when we got the new climate normals for 1991-2020, there was a pretty noticeable cooling trend,” said Jones.

Average temperature trends over the past 30 years by month from November through April. The...
Average temperature trends over the past 30 years by month from November through April. The trend of seeing warmer Novembers and Januarys in ND is evident as well as much colder Februarys over this period.(NOAA/NCEI)

The peak of El Niño might be occurring, which needs to be closely monitored to overcome the long-term climate trends.

“If the El Niño is strong enough to kind of keep us a little bit warmer and maybe shake off winter sooner than what we’ve had the past couple years, but sometimes the longer-term trends win out and we’ll be stuck with not quite spring conditions a little bit longer than we want,” said Jones.

The current outlook still slightly favors above normal temperatures, but as you get further into the spring season, that probability really starts to lessen.

Seasonal temperature outlooks for the three month periods of February-March-April,...
Seasonal temperature outlooks for the three month periods of February-March-April, March-April-May and April-May-June(KFYR/CPC)

“There’s always talk about warm and dry, cold and wet. A lot of the time, we don’t get those paired together necessarily. One of the things that we’ve seen from the historical El Niños, the stronger ones, the past two strong El Niños have been warm in the spring but they’ve also been wet. So it doesn’t necessarily mean snow, but it also doesn’t necessarily mean dry,” said Jones.

Past eight strong El Niño years and their impacts on snowfall, temperatures, and...
Past eight strong El Niño years and their impacts on snowfall, temperatures, and precipitation. Our current El Niño is a strong one.(NWS Bismarck/Megan Jones)

Even if it’s rain, hopefully, that helps farmers to get into the fields sooner in the spring and ranchers with calving than the past two years that featured blizzards in April.

Near normal precipitation is expected for late winter and into spring, but it only takes the track of one storm to make a difference.

Seasonal precipitation outlooks for the three month periods of February-March-April,...
Seasonal precipitation outlooks for the three month periods of February-March-April, March-April-May and April-May-June(KFYR/CPC)



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North Dakota

North Dakota Horse Park gets finances on track as 2025 season takes shape

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North Dakota Horse Park gets finances on track as 2025 season takes shape


FARGO — Slowly, the North Dakota Horse Park in Fargo is growing its live horse racing meet and for the first time in nearly a decade, the organization that runs the track is not scrambling to make the tax payment that once loomed over it.

The Fargo track is operated by Horse Race North Dakota, a nonprofit organization that contributed when the track was built in 2003.

At a meeting of Horse Race North Dakota on Friday, Dec. 20. Cindy Slaughter, accountant and co-owner of TaxLady, which contracts with Horse Race North Dakota, said the track’s overall income is up about $93,000 from this time last year.

A fourth weekend of racing cost the track about $148,000 this year. However, that cost can be offset in the future by factors such as attendance and the amount bet on the races.

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“There’s a couple of things we could do differently this year to reduce that amount,” North Dakota Horse Park General Manager Hugh Alan Drexler said.

Horses race out of the starting gates in the 5th race of the day during opening day at the North Dakota Horse Park on Saturday, July 13, 2024.

Alyssa Goelzer/The Forum

While Drexler and HRND will look to decrease costs, they will not try to do that at the expense of the horsemen, as they hope to keep purses for each race flat or increase them in 2025.

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“I don’t want to cut the purses at all, that would be the last thing we would cut,” HRND President Jay Aslop said.

“That is what our goal is, to promote racing and to increase race dates,” Drexler said. “The day the finances don’t look the same, that is when we need to make a change.”

Live racing receives additional funds from the North Dakota Racing Commission. The commission will meet in February to determine the amount of funds that will be granted to the Fargo track as well as Chippewa Downs, the second horse racing track in North Dakota near Belcourt.

Overcoming financial struggles

Heavy special assessments loomed over the North Dakota Horse Park for several years after it opened.

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In 2003, the city of Fargo spent $1.5 million to extend sewer, water and other infrastructure to the track. The city planned to recoup the costs with special assessments, a kind of property tax assessed to benefiting properties, but the city agreed to suspend the assessments for five years in hopes that the race track would stimulate the development of commercial and residential properties. This would spread the assessments over more property owners and create a smaller bill for the track, which in 2015 was about $1.9 million.

The track is now in repayment of its taxes, making annual payments to the city of Fargo, and accountants are confident a fourth weekend of racing in 2025 will not adversely affect the track.

“I don’t have any concerns about running a fourth weekend this year,” Slaughter said.

Horse racing will be held at the Fargo track in 2025 over four weekends, likely July 12 through Aug. 3, track officials said.

“(It will be) some combination of either Friday, Saturday or Saturday, Sunday depending on what other events are going on in the area,” said Drexler.

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In 2024, attendance at the Fargo track was up overall with about 8,358 in attendance over the eight race days, up from about 8,127, in 2023.

The Fargo track held horse races on Saturday and Sunday afternoons for four consecutive weekends, starting Saturday, July 13. The weekend of July 27-28, races were held in the evening so as to not compete with the Fargo AirSho. The horse park competed for attendance each weekend as the Fargo Street Fair, Red River Valley Fair and the Renaissance Fair overlapped the schedule. The horse park’s closing weekend coincided with WeFest.

The track hosted only three weekends of racing in 2022 and 2023, as it was constricted to operating expenses and the amount of money granted for a live season by the North Dakota Racing Commission. The Fargo track hosted a four-week meet in 2021 but held only two weekends in 2020.





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Sports Spotlight: Ben DeForest

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Sports Spotlight: Ben DeForest


BISMARCK, N.D. (KFYR) – Bismarck High Wrestlers win a lot of titles.

“We’re striving for a state championship, that’s where the bar is set,” said Bismarck High Wrestling head coach Mark Lardy.

Three of said titles belong to the top-ranked 133-pound wrestler in North Dakota, Ben DeForest.

Now, Ben’s going for number four.

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“It would mean everything to me,” said Ben DeForest. “There have been some great wrestlers from BHS that have been four-timers it would just mean a lot for me to add my name to that list.”

”He led a lot by example in the past,” said Lardy. “Now he leads not only by example but his voice in the room is heard.“

Even when his BHS days are over, Ben has another chapter to write in his story: He’s committed to Wrestle at UMary.

“We pride ourselves on trying to keep and retain as many local North Dakota kids here at U-Mary and we’re just very thankful that Ben chose to come here and wrestle for us as well,” said U-Mary Wrestling head coach Adam Aho.

The state champ has a bigger goal in mind.

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“His goal is way beyond what our room is going to give him. This is just a stepping stone,” said Lardy.

Ben wants a national championship.

“We need every guy to have that type of mentality,” said Aho. “Without it, we will never be relevant on the national scene.”

”Once you get your hand raised you realize, all those morning practices you didn’t want to go to and all those lifts that you were like, uh I don’t know, it’s worth it. It’s worth it,” said DeForest.

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My Heartfelt Christmas Wish To You North Dakota

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My Heartfelt Christmas Wish To You North Dakota


My Heartfelt Christmas Wish To You North Dakota.

Not a “catchy-clicky” title and I doubt many of my listeners or readers will probably even read this article.

However, I wanted to share something with you that is on my heart. This is so not me, as I’m more the guy who writes about “North Dakota’s 10 most quirky this and that”.

It’s not that I’m not a sensitive guy, because when I was growing up, I was probably too sensitive. I would avoid sad movies, songs, or anything that would spark too much of an emotion.

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Yes, you could say my heart has become a bit jaded and cold over the years. It’s not something I’m proud of but more of a defense mechanism.

2024 has probably been one of the most challenging years for my family.

From losing loved ones to family issues to health issues to very challenging financial times, it’s been one of those years where you just can’t catch a break. I’m sure many of you can relate.

As we were attending a Christmas Eve candlelight service last night a young child caught my eye.

She was a cute little toddler who was starting to act up. Something I remember oh so well at church with my little now 20-year-old son.

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As her father took her outside the sanctuary to attend to her, I couldn’t help but notice this child’s extremely unfair situation. She had a disability at a year or so old, that none of us could ever imagine. It broke my heart.

This poor child and her family no doubt have a long road ahead of them. As we lit our candles later in the service, I caught the wonder in her eyes, and it couldn’t help but melt my cold heart at the time.

She was perfect and I found myself saying a prayer for this little blonde girl with curly locks and her family.

Her situation also reminded me that I should be thankful for what I have and not what I don’t this Christmas. This is my Christmas wish for you North Dakota, that you will realize the same thing.

Be thankful for who you have around the tree today, not what’s under it.

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Merry Christmas to all my listeners and readers. I hope at least a few of you get to read this and it will touch you the same way this little girl touched me on Christmas Eve.

LOOK: Popular Dinners Americans Don’t Make as Often Anymore

From classic casseroles to heaping helpings of beige-on-beige, these beloved American dinner dishes have fallen out of the mealtime rotation.

Gallery Credit: Stephen Lenz

The 11 Best Gooey Caramel Rolls You Will Find In North Dakota

 

 

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