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Why I’m taking Ole Miss football, Missouri to playoff but not Alabama or Vols | Toppmeyer

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9 months ago

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Why I’m taking Ole Miss football, Missouri to playoff but not Alabama or Vols | Toppmeyer


The College Football Playoff’s expansion to 12 teams has rewired my thinking on whether a team can qualify.

In the four-team playoff, qualification boiled down to avoiding losses – with the exception of 2023 Florida State’s snub. When I considered in the preseason whether a team was playoff material, I thought: Is this team good enough to finish with one loss or fewer? If I thought it could, then it was a playoff contender. If not, then it wasn’t.

With 12 playoff spots, an SEC or Big Ten team doesn’t need to go 13-0 to make the playoff. Not even 12-1 or 11-1. Now, I’m thinking: Is a team’s schedule easy enough for it to finish 10-2?

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Scheduling will be more important than ever to a playoff quest. Say you’re in the Big Ten and your schedule lacks Ohio State, Michigan, Oregon and Penn State. You’ve got a leg up on playoff qualification. Rutgers fits into this category. So, Rutgers as a playoff contender? Um, no. I have my limits. But, you get the idea.

I recently predicted the SEC will claim five spots in the inaugural 12-team playoff.

The qualifiers? Georgia, Texas, Ole Miss, LSU and Missouri.

Alabama and Tennessee headline my close-but-just-missed list.

Why these five qualifiers? Do I think they’re the five best teams in the conference? Not exactly. I’d have Alabama in the top five of my SEC power rankings.

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But, in Kalen DeBoer’s first season, Alabama will face one of the SEC’s most rugged schedules. Alabama’s schedule draw is tougher than that of Ole Miss, LSU and Missouri. If not for that, I’d place the Crimson Tide within my qualifying quintet.

Georgia and Texas are built to be the SEC’s best teams in 2024. Georgia must navigate a brutal schedule, with games against Texas, Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee and Ole Miss, plus Clemson in the nonconference. The Bulldogs can handle it. Kirby Smart once again assembled one of the nation’s most talented rosters. Having proven quarterback Carson Beck helps, too. Georgia’s scheduling minefield doesn’t suit undefeated ambitions, but the Bulldogs should emerge from that gantlet at 10-2 or better and claim a playoff spot.

Texas’ schedule is tough, too, highlighted by games against Georgia, Michigan and Oklahoma. Steve Sarkisian used transfers to address needs after last year’s 12-win season. The Longhorns are pretty loaded. They can reach the playoff for a second straight year.

Once I navigate past Georgia and Texas, I start leaning more heavily on schedule analysis to influence my SEC playoff picks.

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Shake up Missouri’s schedule, and the Tigers would be fortunate to reach eight wins. But, Missouri will enjoy the SEC’s easiest schedule, including an enviable dose of Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Arkansas and South Carolina. The Tigers haven’t had it this good since they called the Big 12 North home. They’ll avoid Georgia, Texas, Ole Miss, LSU and Tennessee. Jackpot. Missouri becomes a playoff contender.

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Ole Miss has it almost as good, with a schedule that steers clear of Georgia, Alabama and Texas. With fortune like that, the “Portal King” must be living right. The Rebels should reach 6-0 before even breaking a sweat. Playoff contender.

LSU has it tougher than Missouri and Ole Miss, but it avoids top dogs Georgia and Texas.

Tennessee’s schedule puts it on a fast track to playoff-contender status. The Vols will face Georgia, Alabama and Oklahoma, but the draw looks favorable otherwise. But, I don’t trust that the Vols won’t stub their toe in another game. I still have images of the Vols losing to South Carolina in 2021 and getting trounced last year by Missouri looming on the mind.

What’s this, though, about a 12-team playoff that doesn’t include Alabama? Consider the possibility.

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DeBoer’s first SEC tour includes Wisconsin (road), Georgia, LSU (road), Oklahoma (road), Missouri, Tennessee (road) and Auburn. Nick Saban scheduled his tee times at just the right moment.

Tide out of the playoff. Tigers, Tigers and Rebels in. The schedule tips the scales.

If only Alabama enjoyed the luxury of Rutgers’ schedule.

Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network’s SEC Columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on Twitter @btoppmeyer.

A digital subscription will allow you access to all of his coverage. Also, check out his podcast, SEC Football Unfiltered, or access exclusive columns via the SEC Unfiltered newsletter.

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Food Bank for Central and Northeast Missouri to host all-day holiday food drive

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8 hours ago

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November 24, 2024

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Food Bank for Central and Northeast Missouri to host all-day holiday food drive





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South Dakota State ensures share of MVFC title smashing FBS-bound Missouri State

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16 hours ago

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November 24, 2024

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South Dakota State ensures share of MVFC title smashing FBS-bound Missouri State


SPRINGFIELD, Mo. (AP) — Mark Gronowski threw for 258 yards and two touchdowns and Amar Johnson ran for two touchdowns and South Dakota State overwhelmed Missouri State 45-9 on Saturday and claimed a share of the Missouri Valley Football Conference regular-season title.

With the win and North Dakota State’s loss to South Dakota, the Bison, Coyotes and Jackrabbits (10-2, 7-1) all secure a three-way tie for the Missouri Valley Football Conference regular-season title.

Missouri State (8-4, 6-2) entered averaging 37 points per game.

It was Missouri State’s final game as a Missouri Valley Football Conference member before joining Conference USA and the FBS ranks in 2025. Missouri State kicks off next season on Aug. 30 when it travels to Southern Cal.

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Mississippi State vs Missouri live score updates, highlights, how to watch Week 13 game

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1 day ago

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November 23, 2024

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Mississippi State vs Missouri live score updates, highlights, how to watch Week 13 game


STARKVILLE — Mississippi State football has one last chance to win a home SEC game today.

The Bulldogs (2-8, 0-6 SEC) are hosting Missouri (7-3, 3-3) at Davis Wade Stadium on Saturday (3:15 p.m., SEC Network). Their only two wins have been in nonconference play.

The Tigers have been in and out of the national polls but are unranked in the US LBM Coaches Poll this week after losing at South Carolina.

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Follow along here for live score updates.

Watch Mississippi State football vs Missouri live on ESPN+

Mississippi State vs Missouri score updates

Davon Booth scampered for a 43-yard rushing touchdown, putting him over 100 yards for the second game in a row and keeping MSU within striking distance with 5:31 remaining in the third quarter.

The Tigers controlled possession for 8 minutes, 46 seconds before kicking a field goal.

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Kyle Ferrie chipped in a 26-yard field goal with 30 seconds remaining in the half after an MSU touchdown was erased because of a holding penalty.

The Tigers have scored three touchdowns in three straight drives, this time Marcus Carroll’s second touchdown of the first half.

Brady Cook connected with Luther Burden III for a 28-yard touchdown catch with 9:58 remaining in the second quarter.

After the Tigers committed 30 yards worth of penalties on one play, Michael Van Buren Jr. found Jordan Mosely for an 11-yard touchdown with 20 seconds left in the first quarter.

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Marcus Carroll scored a 2-yard touchdown with 2:49 remaining in the first quarter.

Michael Van Buren Jr. fumbled and Mizzou returned it 70 yards for a touchdown with 6:33 to play in the first quarter.

Davon Booth broke a 33-yard run before Kyle Ferrie connected on a 38-yard field goal with 11:43 remaining in the first quarter.

Mississippi State vs Mizzou time today

  • Date: Saturday, Nov. 23
  • Time: 3:15 p.m.
  • Location: Davis Wade Stadium

What channel is Mississippi State vs Missouri game on today?

  • TV channel: SEC Network
  • Streaming: ESPN+ (subscribe today)
  • Radio: MSU Sports Network and Sirius XM channel 374

Mississippi State versus Missouri will be broadcast on SEC Network. Taylor Zarzour will be on the call with analyst Matt Stinchcomb and sideline reporter Alyssa Lang. Streaming is available on ESPN+.

Mississippi State vs Mizzou history

  • Series record: Tied 2-2
  • Mississippi State’s last win: 2020 (51-32)
  • Missouri’s last win: 1984 (47-30)

Mississippi State vs Missouri predictions

Missouri 37, Mississippi State 20: The Bulldogs are allowing 41 points per game in SEC play, and it’s difficult to see Missouri not having the same level of success. Expect big days from Luther Burden III and/or Theo Wease Jr., plus running back Nate Noel as MSU loses another game by double digits. 

Mississippi State vs Mizzou betting odds

Game lines and odds from BetMGM as of Saturday:

  • Spread: Missouri -9
  • Over/under: 57.5
  • Moneyline: Missouri -330/Mississippi State +285

Mississippi State vs Missouri injury updates

Mississippi State reported no new injuries this week, but will be without wide receiver Mario Craver due to a suspension. Missouri starting quarterback Brady Cook was probable but removed from the report on Friday.

Mississippi State vs Mizzou weather update

According to AccuWeather, it will be 61 degrees at kickoff with 6 mph winds and a 0% chance of rain.

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Mississippi State football 2024 schedule

Aug. 31: vs. Eastern Kentucky (56-7, W)

Sept. 7: at Arizona State (30-23, L)

Sept. 14: vs. Toledo (41-17, L)

Sept. 21: vs. Florida (45-28, L)

Sept. 28: at Texas (35-13, L)

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Oct. 12: at Georgia (41-31, L)

Oct. 19: vs. Texas A&M (34-24, L)

Oct. 26: vs. Arkansas (58-25, L)

Nov. 2: vs. UMass (45-20, W)

Nov. 9: at Tennessee (33-14, L)

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Nov. 23: vs. Missouri

Nov. 29: at Ole Miss

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Missouri football 2024 schedule

Aug. 29: vs. Murray State (51-0, W)

Sept. 7: vs. Buffalo (38-0, W)

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Sept. 14: vs. Boston College (27-21, W)

Sept. 21: vs. Vanderbilt (30-27, W)

Oct. 5: at Texas A&M (41-10, L)

Oct. 12: at UMass (45-3, W)

Oct. 19: vs. Auburn (21-17, W)

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Oct. 26: at Alabama (34-0, L)

Nov. 9: vs. Oklahoma (30-23, W)

Nov. 16: at South Carolina (34-30, L)

Nov. 23: at Mississippi State

Nov. 30: vs. Arkansas

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Mississippi State football news

Sam Sklar is the Mississippi State beat reporter for the Clarion Ledger. Email him at ssklar@gannett.com and follow him on X @sklarsam_.

We occasionally recommend interesting products and services. If you make a purchase by clicking one of the links, we may earn an affiliate fee. USA TODAY Network newsrooms operate independently, and this doesn’t influence our coverage.



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