At this same point in the election cycle four years ago, Joe Biden was ahead of Donald Trump by 9 percentage points among Wisconsin voters in a two-way presidential matchup. Now, just days after the Republican National Convention ended in Milwaukee, a new Fox News survey shows Wisconsinites give the advantage to Trump over Vice President Kamala Harris — by 1 point. 

Harris receives 49% support to Trump’s 50%. In April, it was 48% each for Biden and Trump, and it was also tied in January (47% apiece).  In June 2020, Biden was at 49% to Trump’s 40%.

Trump’s edge is mainly due to an expanded 14-point lead among men, up from an 8-point lead over Biden in April. He is also favored over Harris among White men without a college degree (by 20 points), rural voters (+15), and White voters (+2).

Harris receives a bit more support among Democrats (96%) than Trump gets among Republicans (93%), but he makes up the difference by having a 4-point advantage among Independents. 

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Some of Harris’ best groups include urban voters (+19 over Trump), Whites with a college degree (+18), and suburban women (+13). Her numbers roughly match or are a bit higher than Biden’s were in April among Whites without a college degree (+5), Independents (+5), voters under 35 (+4), women (+3), Democrats (+1), Whites (+1), and those ages 65 and over (-1).

The biggest shift is among “double haters” (voters with unfavorable views of both Trump and Biden). Trump was ahead by 1 point in April, but they now favor Harris by 25 points. There are too few Harris-Trump double haters to breakout by vote preference. 

Trump is favored by 3 points among new voters (haven’t voted in four most recent general elections), and union households go for him by 2 points, which is different from what we see in a couple of other northern industrial states. Union voters prefer Harris by 6 points in Michigan and by 15 points in Minnesota. 

Biden’s personal favorable rating was negative by 10 points in April and now he’s underwater by 12.  It’s the reverse for Trump, who went from being underwater by 10 points to negative 5 in the new survey. Harris is more popular than both at 49% favorable and 49% unfavorable. JD Vance’s favorability is negative by 7 points, while 15% are unable to rate him. 

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Fifteen percent of Wisconsin voters say they are getting ahead financially, up from 11% six months ago. Still, most continue to feel they are holding steady (41%) or falling behind (43%). 

By far, the economy will be the deciding issue this fall.  It’s the top priority for 37%, trailed by abortion and immigration at 15% each. All other issues are in the single digits.

Majorities of those prioritizing the economy and immigration back Trump (by 38 and 81 points respectively), while those putting abortion as their top issue prefer Harris by 78 points.

“This poll shows Harris in a slightly stronger position in Wisconsin than Biden based on personal favorability,” says Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, whose company Beacon Research conducts Fox News surveys along with Republican Daron Shaw.  “However, with many voters feeling strained financially and union households breaking for Trump, she has work to do convincing voters they’ll be better off continuing with a Democrat in the White House.”

In a potential 5-way race, Harris and Trump tie at 46% each, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. receiving 5%, and Jill Stein and Cornel West at 1% each.  Support for Kennedy was 9% in April.

Kennedy takes more support from Trump (6%) than Harris (2%), but it evens out because the other candidates also take from her (3%).

The large 75% approval of Biden withdrawing from the presidential race is widespread, as it includes 88% of Democrats and two-thirds of Republicans (65%) and Independents (69%).

Vice President Kamala Harris speaks following her meeting with Netanyahu on Thursday. (AP/Julia Nikhinson)

That consensus disappears on the issue of Biden finishing his term: 92% of Democrats and 58% Independents think he should, while 57% of Republicans think he should resign.  Overall, two-thirds think he should stick around. 

In 2020, Biden won Wisconsin by 20,682 votes, less than one percentage point. Trump’s 2016 victory was also by less than a point (22,748 votes). 

Poll-pourri

In the senate race, Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin leads likely Republican challenger Eric Hovde by a 54-43% margin, running 5 points ahead of Harris’ support in the presidential race. (The Wisconsin primary is August 13.)

More Trump supporters are ticket splitters, as 83% of his backers favor Hovde, while 96% of Harris supporters go for Baldwin. 

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Overall, three-quarters of Wisconsin voters say they are extremely motivated to vote in the presidential election, and they split 50% Harris vs. 49% Trump. That’s because slightly more Harris supporters (76%) than Trump supporters (73%) say they are extremely motivated.

Former US President Donald Trump arrives to the Republican National Convention (RNC) at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, US, on Wednesday, July 17, 2024. The RNC chairman warned against complacency when his party concludes its official nominating jamboree this week with polls predicting ex-President Donald Trump prevailing over President Joe Biden in the November election.   (David Paul Morris/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

Fully 84% of Wisconsin Democrats want Harris to replace Biden as their party’s nominee — no other candidate gets more than 2% support.  

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Conducted July 22-24, 2024 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,046 Wisconsin registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (127) and cellphones (649) or completed the survey online after receiving a text (270). Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points. Sampling error associated with subgroup results is higher. In addition to sampling error, question wording and order can influence results. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure the demographics are representative of the registered voter population. Sources for developing weight targets include the American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis, and voter file data.

Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.

Sonya Massey ducked and apologized to an Illinois sheriff’s deputy seconds before he shot the Black woman three times in her home, with one fatal blow to the head, as seen in body camera video released Monday.

An Illinois grand jury indicted former Sangamon County Sheriff’s Deputy Sean Grayson, 30, who is white, last week. He has pleaded not guilty to charges of first-degree murder, aggravated battery with a firearm and official misconduct.

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The video confirmed prosecutors’ earlier account of the tense moment when Grayson yelled from across a counter at Massey to set down a pot of hot water. He then threatened to shoot her, Massey ducked, briefly rose, and Grayson fired his pistol at her.

Authorities said Massey, 36, had called 911 earlier to report a suspected prowler. The video shows the two deputies responded just before 1 a.m. on July 6 at her home in Springfield, 200 miles (322 kilometers) southwest of Chicago. They first walked around the house and found a black SUV with broken windows in the driveway.

It took Massey three minutes to open the door after the deputies knocked, and she immediately said, “Don’t hurt me.”

She seemed confused as they spoke at the door, and she repeated that she needed help, referenced God and told them she didn’t know who owned the car.

Inside the house, deputies seemed exasperated as she sat on her couch and went through her purse as they asked for identification to complete a report before leaving. Then Grayson pointed out a pot sitting on a flame on the stove.

“We don’t need a fire while we’re here,” he said.

Massey immediately got up and went to the stove, moving the pot near a sink. She and Grayson seemed to share a laugh over her pan of “steaming hot water” before she unexpectedly said, “I rebuke you in the name of Jesus.”

“You better (expletive) not or I swear to God I’ll (expletive) shoot you in your (expletive) face.” He then pulled his 9mm pistol and demanded she drop the pot.

Massey said, “OK, I’m sorry.” In Grayson’s body camera footage, he pointed his weapon at her. She ducked and raised her hands.

Grayson was still in the living room, facing Massey and separated by a counter dividing the living room and kitchen. Prosecutors have said the separation allowed Grayson both “distance and relative cover” from Massey and the pot of hot water.

After Grayson shot her, Grayson discouraged his partner from grabbing a medical kit to save her.

“You can go get it, but that’s a headshot,” he said. “There’s nothing you can do, man.”

He added: “What else do we do? I’m not taking hot (expletive) boiling water to the (expletive) face”

Noting that Massey was still breathing, he relented and said he would get his kit, too. The other deputy said, “We can at least try to stop the bleeding.”

Grayson told responding police, “She had boiling water and came at me, with boiling water. She said she was going to rebuke me in the name of Jesus and came at me with boiling water.”

During a Monday afternoon news conference, the family’s lawyer, civil rights attorney Ben Crump, called Grayson’s “revisionist” justification “disingenuous.”

“She needed a helping hand. She did not need a bullet to her face,” Crump said of Massey.

Asked why Massey told Grayson, “I rebuke you in the name of Jesus,” Crump said she had undergone treatment for mental health issues. He noted that she invoked God’s name from the beginning of the encounter and asked for her Bible after the deputies stepped inside.

During Massey’s funeral on Friday, Crump said the video, which he and the family had already viewed, would “shock the conscience of America.”

Massey’s father, James Wilburn, demanded the county court system be completely open with its investigation and prosecution and transparent with the public.

“The only time I will see my baby again is when I leave this world,” Wilburn said. “And I don’t ever want anybody else in the United States to join this league.”

Grayson, who was fired last week, is being held in the Sangamon County Jail without bond. If convicted, he faces prison sentences of 45 years to life for murder, 6 to 30 years for battery and 2 to 5 years for misconduct.

His lawyer, Daniel Fultz, declined to comment Monday.

In a statement, President Joe Biden said he and first lady Jill Biden were praying for Massey’s family “as they face this unthinkable and senseless loss.”

“When we call for help, all of us as Americans – regardless of who we are or where we live – should be able to do so without fearing for our lives,” Biden said. “Sonya’s death at the hands of a responding officer reminds us that all too often Black Americans face fears for their safety in ways many of the rest of us do not.”

Massey’s death is the latest example of Black people killed in recent years by police in their homes.

In May, a Hispanic Florida sheriff’s deputy shot and killed Roger Fortson, when the Air Force senior airman opened the door of his home in Fort Walton Beach armed with a handgun pointed down. The deputy, Eddie Duran, was fired.

In 2019, a white Fort Worth, Texas, officer fatally shot Atatiana Jefferson through a rear window of her home after responding to a nonemergency call reporting that Jefferson’s front door was open. Aaron Dean, the former officer, was convicted of manslaughter and sentenced to nearly 12 years in prison.

In 2018, a white Dallas police officer fatally shot Botham Jean, who was unarmed, after mistaking his apartment for her own. Amber Guyger, the former officer, was convicted of murder and was sentenced to 10 years in prison.

Crump has represented families in each case as part of his effort to force accountability for the killings of Black people at the hands of police. Crump also has represented relatives of Earl Moore, a Springfield man who died after he was strapped face down on a stretcher in December 2022. Two emergency medical professionals face murder charges in that case.

The Detroit Tigers have been one of the most talked about teams in baseball over the last couple of weeks.

While they have started to play better on the field, the majority of attention is on who they might be shipping out ahead of the 2024 MLB trade deadline next week.

While those rumors have been swirling aggressively, there is another piece of major news to report about the franchise.

Unfortunately, the Tigers have had to make a move to place their young star outfielder Riley Greene on the injured list heading into the weekend with a strained right hamstring. There has been no expected timetable given to for his potential return to the field.

In a corresponding move, Detroit has decided to recall utilityman Ryan Vilade from Triple-A affiliate Toledo.

So far during the 2024 season, Greene has been a massive bright spot for the Tigers. He has played in 101 games, batting .264/.357/.485 to go along with 17 home runs and 51 RBI. That production will be missed.

Hopefully, this isn’t an injury that will last long-term. Detroit needs their young rising star back on the field. He is quickly turning into the centerpiece of the lineup for the future.

All of that being said, the Tigers will now turn their attention to the moves they’re going to make ahead of the deadline. Names like Jack Flaherty, Mark Canha, and even Tarik Skubal are making their rounds through the rumors.

Only time will tell what they choose to do at the deadline, but for now they’re simply hoping for a quick recovery and return to the diamond from Greene.