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USC vs. Michigan score prediction by expert college football model

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USC vs. Michigan score prediction by expert college football model


Usually, we had to wait for a Rose Bowl to see USC and Michigan on the same field, but this is now a Big Ten regular season game thanks to the vagaries of conference realignment, as the No. 11 Trojans square off against the No. 18 Wolverines in college football’s Week 4 action on Saturday.

USC makes its Big Ten debut coming in strong, owning a big win against a ranked LSU team in the season opener and flattening Utah State in a 48-0 decision last weekend, ranking No. 7 nationally in passing output with quarterback Miller Moss at the helm.

Even the Trojans’ defense, an often-maligned unit that practically kept the team from the playoff two years ago, has performed better under coordinator D’Anton Lynn’s leadership, ranking 18th in FBS by allowing 10 points per game on average.

Defending national champion Michigan is looking to avoid falling to .500 in head coach Sherrone Moore’s first season, and has already made a change at quarterback, swapping Davis Warren for Alex Orji in an attempt to give the offense a jolt.

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Texas dominated the Wolverines in a 31-12 decision two weeks ago at the Big House, snapping UM’s 23-game home win streak, and now Michigan is hoping to avoid a second loss at home to a ranked opponent in the same season.

What can we expect from the matchup this weekend?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview for how USC and Michigan compare in this Week 4 college football game.

In contrast to most oddsmakers, the simulations are actually going with the home team here.

SP+ predicts that Michigan will defeat USC by a projected score of 30 to 26 and to win the game by an expected 3.9 points.

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The model is giving the Wolverines a 60 percent chance of victory over the Trojans.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 75-68 against the spread with a 52.4 win percentage.

USC is a 5.5 point favorite against Michigan, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook, which set the total at 44.5 points for the game.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for USC at -200 and for Michigan at +164 to win outright.

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If you’re using this projection to bet on the game, you should take …

Other analytical models take a different view of the game from the SP+ projections.

That includes College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and pick winners.

USC comes out as the expected winner in the majority 57.3 percent of the computer’s updated simulations.

That leaves Michigan as the projected victor in the remaining 42.7 percent of sims.

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The index forecasts that USC will be 2.9 points better than Michigan on the same field, not enough to cover this spread.

USC is fourth among Big Ten teams with a 35.7 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 9.1 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model predicts Michigan will win 6.9 games this year and has a 6.6 percent shot at the playoff.

When: Sat., Sept. 21
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET | 12:30 p.m. PT
TV: CBS network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks

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Indiana extends Big Ten streak to five as the Michigan women win for the first time since 2018

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Indiana extends Big Ten streak to five as the Michigan women win for the first time since 2018


The Indiana men didn’t just win, they secured a fifth straight conference championship, continuing a swimming and diving dynasty in Bloomington. Michigan’s women surged to the top of the league, capturing the title with authority and balance across the lineup.

Records fell left and right throughout the week as this year’s Big 10 championships featured some of the best performances in conference history in the pool.

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Here are the main takeaways from this year’s Big 10 swimming and diving championships:

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Indiana breaks away from Michigan to win fifth straight title

The Indiana men continued their dominance in the pool in 2026, extending their Big 10 dynasty.

From start to finish, the Hoosiers demonstrated experience and elite talent. Indiana won ten different events, including two relays and eight individual wins from six different athletes.

Indiana dominated the distance events this week, winning the 400-yd IM, the 500-yd freestyle, and 1,650-yd freestyle. Senior Zalan Sarkany won both distance freestyle events while freshman Josh Bey started off his Big 10 career with a win in the 400-yard IM.

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Owen McDonald was the second highest scorer in the meet behind Michigan senior Tyler Ray, who was named Big 10 Swimmer of the Championships. The senior won the Big 10 title in the 100-yd backstroke and 200-yd IM.

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Senior Kai Van Westering and junior Dylan Smiley closed on the week with wins on the last night of competition for the Hoosiers. Van Westering grabbed the win in the 200-yd backstroke and Dylan Smiley won the 100-yd freestyle before leading Indiana to a win in the 400-yd freestyle relay to close out the meet.

Beyond individual stars, the Hoosiers stacked swims in the top eight of each event, showcasing balance across not only distance, but sprint and mid-distance events as well. Indiana’s performance combined consistency and poise, placing swimmers in the establishing control from the first event individual event to the final relay.

The win marks Indiana’s 32nd Big 10 title overall, which is second all time behind Michigan. Head coach Ray Looze won his ninth men’s Big Ten title, moving him into the top five all time in conference history.



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Woman accused of driving at the bottom of an Oakland County ski hill near guests

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Woman accused of driving at the bottom of an Oakland County ski hill near guests



A 58-year-old woman is accused of driving a vehicle at the bottom of a ski hill near skiers and snowboarders in White Lake Township, Michigan, the Oakland County Prosecutor’s Office said Saturday.

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Prosecutors allege the Bingham Farms, Michigan, woman drove near guests of Alpine Valley Ski Area, including children, on Tuesday. 

According to the prosecutor’s office, witnesses said they saw the woman smoking what appeared to be marijuana before the incident and wearing ski boots while driving. Officers attempting to perform sobriety tests reported that she “exhibited poor balance, slurred speech, and open hostility.”

Online court records show the woman is charged with operating while impaired for the third time. If convicted, she faces up to five years in prison, a maximum fine of $5,000 and “mandatory vehicle immobilization” for one to three years, the prosecutor’s office said.

“This defendant endangered children with her irresponsible actions,” Oakland County Prosecutor Karen McDonald said in a written statement. “There is no excuse to drive impaired, even once. If you’ve had too much to drink or are under the influence of marijuana or other drugs, call a friend, call an Uber, just don’t drive.”

The woman is scheduled to appear at a probable cause conference on March 12.

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First Film to Depict a Robot Discovered in Michigan

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First Film to Depict a Robot Discovered in Michigan


A long-lost silent film that’s believed to be the first depiction of a robot in motion pictures was rediscovered in Michigan. And it’s a great reminder for film history fans that you shouldn’t give up hope just because a film has been deemed lost.

The film, titled “Gugusse and the Automaton,” is just 45 seconds long and was created in 1897 by French film pioneer Georges Méliès. It shows a magician named Gugusse turning a large crank to control Pierrot Automate, a child-sized robot. The robot grows bigger and bigger until it’s an adult.

Once full size, the robot does a little dance before hitting Gugusse over the head with a stick. Gugusse brings the robot down from his pedestal and then shows him what’s what.

Gugusse hits the robot over the head with a gigantic mallet, each swing making the mechanical man a little smaller until he’s back to his child-like size. Another swing makes the robot a small doll and then it’s just one more mallet slap before the robot disappears completely.

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With that, the film is over.

It’s a short film with a goofy, slapstick premise. But it’s also an artifact that can be interpreted similarly to so much robot-focused media that would come later in the 20th century. The robot harms a human, the human needs to destroy the robot.

We see anti-robot stories pop up especially during difficult economic times, like the 1930s and 1970s, something I’ve written about before at length. And if you’re wondering whether there were hard economic times in France during the 1890s, there certainly were—in the form of a double dip recession, no less.

But putting aside the potential message of the film (and the risk of taking it too seriously as a sign of broader social frustrations), the story of how this film was rediscovered is fascinating.

Bill McFarland of Grand Rapids, Michigan, drove a box of films that belonged to his great-grandfather to the Library of Congress’s National Audio-Visual Conservation Center in Culpeper, Virginia so that experts could take a look at what he had.

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McFarland’s great-grandfather was a man named William Delisle Frisbee who had worked jobs as a school teacher and a potato farmer in Pennsylvania, according to a blog post from the Library of Congress. But he also worked nights as a “traveling showman,” according to the Library.

“He drove his horse and buggy from town to town to dazzle the locals with a projector and some of the world’s first moving pictures,” the Library explains. “He set up shop in a local schoolroom, church, lodge or civic auditorium and showed magic lantern slides and short films with music from a newfangled phonograph. It was shocking.”

Frisbee died in 1937 and two trunks of his possessions were passed on through generations until they made their way to McFarland, who was unable to screen the movies from himself because of their condition.

The Library posted a video to Instagram talking about their acquisition of the film and how remarkable it is that such an old film was found. It’s estimated that as much as 90% of films made before 1930 are lost to history.

Other films in the trunks included another Méliès film from 1900 titled “The Fat and Lean Wrestling Match,” fragments of a Thomas Edison movie called “The Burning Stable.” Library technicians scanned the films in 4K to preserve them for future generations.

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The word “robot” wasn’t coined until 1920 for the Czech play R.U.R. by Karel Capek. But visions of artificial men date back centuries. And it’s incredible to see a robot from the 1890s depicted on film for the first time. Even if it’s just 45 seconds long.

Don’t give up hope if you’re longing to watch some movie that’s believed to be completely lost. You never know what someone may have in a dusty old trunk in Michigan.





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