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Ohio State vs. Michigan State football prediction: What the analytics say

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Ohio State vs. Michigan State football prediction: What the analytics say


Big Ten football returns to the gridiron this weekend as No. 3 Ohio State embarks on its first road trip against Michigan State in Saturday night’s Week 5 action.

Ohio State has run through its non-conference schedule with expected ease, outscoring opponents 157 to 20 and posting the nation’s No. 4 scoring offense with 52.3 points per game.

Michigan State already has a win in Big Ten play after beating Maryland two weeks ago, but is coming off a close loss to Boston College and sits 93rd in FBS in scoring offense.

Looking ahead to this week’s matchup, let’s check out the latest college football predictions from the Football Power Index computer prediction model.

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The model simulates every NCAA college football game 20,000 times and uses key analytics from both teams to predict outcomes based on a projected scoring margin per game.

As expected, the Buckeyes are a big favorite this week, according to the models.

Ohio State comes out as the projected winner in the overwhelming 92.8 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations.

That leaves the Spartans as the expected winner in the remaining 7.2 percent of sims.

Ohio State is projected to be 23.2 points better than Michigan State on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the models.

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If so, that wouldn’t be enough for the Buckeyes to cover the spread.

That’s because Ohio State is a 24 point favorite against Michigan State, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

The book lists the total at 48.5 points for the game.

FanDuel set the moneyline odds for Ohio State at -3000 and for Michigan State at +1300 to win outright.

Most bettors currently project the Buckeyes will handle the Spartans easily in the B1G opener.

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That includes 58 percent of bets that currently suggest Ohio State will win the game and cover the spread.

The remaining 42 percent of wagers expect Michigan State will either win in an upset, or, more likely, keep the game within the 24 point line.

Ohio State is projected to defeat Michigan State by an implied score of 36 to 12, resulting in a push and the game hitting the under.

The Buckeyes are first among Big Ten teams with a 78.6 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 11.1 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

Michigan State will win 5.7 games and has a 0.3 percent shot at the 12-team playoff.

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Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Teams are ranked not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.

First-place votes in parentheses

  1. Texas (44)
  2. Georgia (13)
  3. Ohio State (5)
  4. Alabama
  5. Tennessee
  6. Ole Miss
  7. Miami
  8. Oregon
  9. Penn State
  10. Utah
  11. Missouri
  12. Michigan
  13. USC
  14. LSU
  15. Louisville
  16. Notre Dame
  17. Clemson
  18. Iowa State
  19. Illinois
  20. Oklahoma State
  21. Oklahoma
  22. BYU
  23. Kansas State
  24. Texas A&M
  25. Boise State

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks



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Woman accused of driving at the bottom of an Oakland County ski hill near guests

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Woman accused of driving at the bottom of an Oakland County ski hill near guests



A 58-year-old woman is accused of driving a vehicle at the bottom of a ski hill near skiers and snowboarders in White Lake Township, Michigan, the Oakland County Prosecutor’s Office said Saturday.

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Prosecutors allege the Bingham Farms, Michigan, woman drove near guests of Alpine Valley Ski Area, including children, on Tuesday. 

According to the prosecutor’s office, witnesses said they saw the woman smoking what appeared to be marijuana before the incident and wearing ski boots while driving. Officers attempting to perform sobriety tests reported that she “exhibited poor balance, slurred speech, and open hostility.”

Online court records show the woman is charged with operating while impaired for the third time. If convicted, she faces up to five years in prison, a maximum fine of $5,000 and “mandatory vehicle immobilization” for one to three years, the prosecutor’s office said.

“This defendant endangered children with her irresponsible actions,” Oakland County Prosecutor Karen McDonald said in a written statement. “There is no excuse to drive impaired, even once. If you’ve had too much to drink or are under the influence of marijuana or other drugs, call a friend, call an Uber, just don’t drive.”

The woman is scheduled to appear at a probable cause conference on March 12.

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First Film to Depict a Robot Discovered in Michigan

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First Film to Depict a Robot Discovered in Michigan


A long-lost silent film that’s believed to be the first depiction of a robot in motion pictures was rediscovered in Michigan. And it’s a great reminder for film history fans that you shouldn’t give up hope just because a film has been deemed lost.

The film, titled “Gugusse and the Automaton,” is just 45 seconds long and was created in 1897 by French film pioneer Georges Méliès. It shows a magician named Gugusse turning a large crank to control Pierrot Automate, a child-sized robot. The robot grows bigger and bigger until it’s an adult.

Once full size, the robot does a little dance before hitting Gugusse over the head with a stick. Gugusse brings the robot down from his pedestal and then shows him what’s what.

Gugusse hits the robot over the head with a gigantic mallet, each swing making the mechanical man a little smaller until he’s back to his child-like size. Another swing makes the robot a small doll and then it’s just one more mallet slap before the robot disappears completely.

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With that, the film is over.

It’s a short film with a goofy, slapstick premise. But it’s also an artifact that can be interpreted similarly to so much robot-focused media that would come later in the 20th century. The robot harms a human, the human needs to destroy the robot.

We see anti-robot stories pop up especially during difficult economic times, like the 1930s and 1970s, something I’ve written about before at length. And if you’re wondering whether there were hard economic times in France during the 1890s, there certainly were—in the form of a double dip recession, no less.

But putting aside the potential message of the film (and the risk of taking it too seriously as a sign of broader social frustrations), the story of how this film was rediscovered is fascinating.

Bill McFarland of Grand Rapids, Michigan, drove a box of films that belonged to his great-grandfather to the Library of Congress’s National Audio-Visual Conservation Center in Culpeper, Virginia so that experts could take a look at what he had.

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McFarland’s great-grandfather was a man named William Delisle Frisbee who had worked jobs as a school teacher and a potato farmer in Pennsylvania, according to a blog post from the Library of Congress. But he also worked nights as a “traveling showman,” according to the Library.

“He drove his horse and buggy from town to town to dazzle the locals with a projector and some of the world’s first moving pictures,” the Library explains. “He set up shop in a local schoolroom, church, lodge or civic auditorium and showed magic lantern slides and short films with music from a newfangled phonograph. It was shocking.”

Frisbee died in 1937 and two trunks of his possessions were passed on through generations until they made their way to McFarland, who was unable to screen the movies from himself because of their condition.

The Library posted a video to Instagram talking about their acquisition of the film and how remarkable it is that such an old film was found. It’s estimated that as much as 90% of films made before 1930 are lost to history.

Other films in the trunks included another Méliès film from 1900 titled “The Fat and Lean Wrestling Match,” fragments of a Thomas Edison movie called “The Burning Stable.” Library technicians scanned the films in 4K to preserve them for future generations.

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The word “robot” wasn’t coined until 1920 for the Czech play R.U.R. by Karel Capek. But visions of artificial men date back centuries. And it’s incredible to see a robot from the 1890s depicted on film for the first time. Even if it’s just 45 seconds long.

Don’t give up hope if you’re longing to watch some movie that’s believed to be completely lost. You never know what someone may have in a dusty old trunk in Michigan.





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Michigan rolls past Illinois to win Big Ten title outright, boosting No. 1 seed hopes

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Michigan rolls past Illinois to win Big Ten title outright, boosting No. 1 seed hopes


Kylan Boswell (4) scored 15 points for the Illini but Yaxel Lendeborg (23) scored 16 in Michigan’s win. Geoff Stellfox / Getty Images

Michigan has left no doubt about Big Ten superiority — the No. 3 Wolverines’ 84-70 romp Friday at No. 10 Illinois gives them an outright conference championship with two regular-season games remaining.

The win gives Michigan its first outright title since 2021, and it’s another top-shelf win that gives Michigan (27-2, 17-1 Big Ten) a boost in its pursuit of the NCAA Tournament’s No. 1 seed. This matters for the Wolverines because they would be lined up for a potential Final Four matchup with the No. 4 seed rather than either of the two teams that are also in contention for No. 1 — Duke, which beat Michigan last week to gain the inside track, and Arizona.

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Friday’s lone meeting of the regular season between two purported national contenders left Michigan looking much the part, and Illinois looking a tier lower. This was domination, a comfortable second half for a Michigan team that led by as many as 21.

Michigan sophomore big man Morez Johnson Jr., who transferred from Illinois in the offseason, heard a lot of jeers from fans at State Farm Center and responded with 19 points and 11 rebounds. Big man Aday Mara also scored 19. Yaxel Lendeborg, the star of Michigan’s jumbo frontcourt, had 16 points and seven rebounds.

That interior helped the Wolverines to a 42-32 edge in points in the paint and 22 second-chance points. Keaton Wagler had 23 points to lead Illinois (22-7, 13-5), which projected as a No. 2 seed in Tuesday’s Bracket Watch but has lost two straight games and four of six. The Illini are trending in the wrong direction and potentially heading to the three-line.

The No. 1 seed also gets to choose its tournament path, and Michigan has requested Philadelphia as its first-weekend site. Otherwise, the Wolverines will likely be placed in Buffalo, which is closer to Ann Arbor.

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Connections: Sports Edition

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