• Michigan State will play Auburn in the NCAA tournament South region final on Sunday in Atlanta.
• The winner of the game will advance to the Final Four in the NCAA men’s basketball tournament.

Scouting Michigan State basketball vs. Auburn

Breaking down Sunday’s South region final between No. 2-seed Michigan State basketball and 1-seed Auburn:

Matchup: Michigan State (30-6) vs. Auburn (31-5).

Fast facts: 5:05 p.m. Sunday; State Farm Arena, Atlanta.

TV: CBS.

At stake: Winner advances to the Final Four in San Antonio to face West region winner (1-seed Florida or 3-seed Texas Tech) in national semifinals on April 5.

THE PICKS: Michigan State vs Auburn predictions in March Madness for Elite 8 game

About MSU

Location: East Lansing.

Coach: Tom Izzo (30 seasons at MSU, 737-301 career).

School NCAA tournament record: 76-36 in 37 appearances.

Past 10 games: 9-1.

Scoring leaders: Jaden Akins, 12.8 points per game, Jase Richardson 12.2, Tre Holloman 9.3.

Rebounding leaders: Jaxon Kohler 7.4 rebounds per game, Carson Cooper 5.3, Szymon Zapala 4.

Assist leaders: Jeremy Fears Jr. 5.5 assists per game, Holloman 3.8, Richardson 1.9.

3-point leaders: Richardson 42%, Fears 34.2%, Holloman 34%, Kohler 34%.

BIG TEN’S BEST: With Final Four in sight again, sole spotlight on Tom Izzo, Michigan State in Elite Eight

The buzz: After entering the season unranked and with tepid outside expectations, the Spartans blew away league competition to win Izzo’s record-tying 11th Big Ten regular-season championship. MSU is in its 11th Elite Eight under Izzo after putting together three hard-fought victories to get there — eventually pulling away from pesky 15-seed Bryant by 25 points in the opening round, then grinding out an eight-point win over 10-seed New Mexico in Cleveland. No game, however, might have been more grueling than the Spartans’ Sweet 16 win Friday night in Atlanta, as the Spartans didn’t get their first lead until more than 32 minutes in against Mississippi before getting enough stops and some key baskets and free throws for a 73-70 victory over the 6-seeded Rebels. It came with more strong play from Richardson, who scored 20 points for the sixth time his freshman season. However, MSU continues to see an uptick in production from sophomore forward Coen Carr, who had 15 points in his starting debut, and another strong floor game from redshirt freshman point guard Jeremy Fears Jr. (four points, six assists).

The Spartans went 19-for-22 on free throws after struggling down the stretch and in the first two rounds, drawing 20 fouls and making all 10 of their attempts at the line in the final 7:50. They are 19th nationally at 77.8% by averaging 17.5 free throws (13th) while attempting 22.5 per game (32nd). MSU also held Ole Miss to 9-for-27 from 3-point range, and Izzo’s defense holds opponents to just 28% from the arc, which is second in the nation. Expect a fresh Zapala, after sitting out the tough matchup against the quicker, undersized Rebels, to log more minutes against Auburn after the Spartans were outrebounded (33-29) on Friday.

About Auburn

Location: Auburn, Alabama.

Coach: Bruce Pearl (231-124 in 11 seasons at Auburn, 693-269 in 30 seasons overall).

School NCAA tournament record: 22-12 in 13 appearances.

Past 10 games: 7-3.

Scoring leaders: Johni Broome 18.5 points per game, Chad Baker-Mazara 12.3, Tahaad Pettiford 11.8, Miles Kelly 11.5, Denver Jones 11.

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Rebounding leaders: Broome 10.8 rebounds per game, Dylan Cardwell 4.9, Chaney Johnson 4.9.

Assist leaders: Pettiford 2.9 assists per game, Broome 2.9, Baker-Mazara 2.6, Jones 2.6.

3-point leaders: Jones 42.4%, Kelly 38.6%, Baker-Mazara 37.9%, Pettiford 37.6%.

The buzz: Despite stumbling into the tournament in losing three of its last four (to NCAA squads Texas A&M, Alabama and Tennessee), the Tigers still earned the overall No. 1 seed and blew through 16-seed Alabama State by 20 and 9-seed Creighton by 12 in Lexington, Kentucky, before eliminating 5-seed Michigan on Friday night, 78-65. Broome, a 6-10 senior forward, had 16 rebounds against the Wolverines, including nine on the offensive glass, but went just 9-for-21 in getting his 22 points as Auburn shot just 39.4% overall and went 8-for-28 from 3-point range. According to kenpom.com, the Tigers have the nation’s third-most efficient offense and eighth-most efficient defense, with their 83.6 points scored 12th nationally and their 29.6% 3-point defense 11th-best. Auburn’s 9.4 turnovers per game ranks 12th in the country, but U-M forced Pearl’s team into 15 on Friday. Pettiford is the catalyst of the Tigers’ offense, a 6-1 freshman from New Jersey who was a McDonald’s All-American a year ago and whose attacking style and slight frame is a little reminiscent of former MSU combo guard Tyson Walker. Containing his quickness off the dribble, play-making ability and left-handed outside shooting will be equally as critical for the Spartans’ defense Sunday as it is to mix-and-match big bodies against Broome. Meantime, the Tigers’ complementary players all can score and present another long-armed defensive problem for MSU’s perimeter players.

Chris Solari’s March Madness prediction for Michigan State basketball vs. Auburn

Don’t be fooled by the offensive capabilities of these two teams, both Izzo and Pearl know the key in this will be defending each other at an elite level. For the Spartans, that means alternating their bigs on Broome and their guards on Pettiford to keep them confused and force the rest of the Tigers’ eight-man rotation to play above their averages. Auburn can get sloppy, but MSU also must continue to play through their own mistakes and keep it close into the second half, where Izzo’s adjustments and his players’ sheer will to win send the Spartans back to his ninth Final Four, and first since 2019. The pick: MSU 68, Auburn 66.

Contact Chris Solari: csolari@freepress.com. Follow him @chrissolari.

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ATLANTA — As the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA tournament, Auburn is, not surprisingly, a minus-4.5-point favorite against Michigan State in their Elite Eight matchup Sunday, according to ESPN BET.

But Auburn coach Bruce Pearl doesn’t believe the odds tell the true story of the game, suggesting Michigan State and its historically successful program should be the real favorite.

“Most of our guys are guys that were mid-majors or junior college or Division II,” Pearl said Saturday. “I’m not going to let Michigan State play the underdog card even though we’re a No. 1 seed and they’re a No. 2 seed. No, they’re Michigan State. They’re Kansas. They’re Duke. They’re North Carolina and we’re Auburn.

“We know our place. We know what we’re trying to go up against, and we know the uphill battle that it is when you play against a Hall of Fame coach and, obviously, a legendary program.”

Pearl also cited the number of McDonald’s All-Americans on their respective rosters as a factor in his position on the Spartans. Michigan State’s Xavier Booker and Jeremy Fears Jr. both played in the 2023 installment of the game, while Tahaad Pettiford is the only McDonald’s All-American on Auburn. He also noted Tom Izzo’s perfect record (10-0) against SEC teams in the NCAA tournament.

Izzo, however, doesn’t seem to agree. He said he and Pearl have been friends for years but he never gets caught up in the odds because anything can happen to a team, regardless of its seeding.

“I’ve been through so many of these, I’ve been a 2-seed that’s been beaten by a 15-seed,” Izzo said. “I’ve been a 1-seed that hasn’t gotten out of the first weekend, so I don’t buy any of that stuff, but if it makes them feel better, I’ll be the favorite. I’m cool with that. Whatever they want me to be, I’ll be.”

This season, Pearl’s team was ranked No. 1 for nearly three months after a 90-day stretch that featured just one loss. Pearl earned SEC coach of the year honors, Johni Broome was named SEC player of the year and three other Auburn players were honored by the league, too.

For Michigan State, Jase Richardson has matured into a projected lottery pick in ESPN’s latest 2025 NBA mock draft, but the Spartans did not have a player on the all-Big Ten first or second teams this season.

Still, Izzo said his focus is not on any comparison between the two programs because his team matters most at this stage.

“The game will be won by the players, not the bettors, not the media, not even the coaches,” Izzo added. “The game will be won by the players who play the game.”

Pearl and Izzo have history against one another.

Pearl cited his recent wins over Big Ten teams as the result of the collective edge in “athleticism” the SEC has had over the Big Ten in recent years. But the last time he faced Izzo in the Elite Eight, he left with a loss. He said he still blames himself for Tennessee’s 70-69 loss to Michigan State in 2010 because of the way he handled the final seconds of the game. On Sunday, he said he’ll have the same concerns he had about Michigan State 15 years ago.

“They’ve always been as athletic as anybody in the backcourt,” Pearl said. “Michigan State has elite athletes in the backcourt. Therefore, like my athletes, they guard. They can score in multiple ways. Then, his front lines are always big, strong, physical. They play really hard.”

Izzo didn’t recall every detail from that 2010 Elite Eight game against Tennessee that capped his 5-seed Michigan State team’s run to the Final Four that year. He said he’s only focused on his current group, which will have its hands full against Auburn, one of the most experienced teams in the field.

“In fact, [Pearl’s] team is very mature,” Izzo said. “I won’t say old. I prefer that people call me mature instead of old, so I’ll do the same thing for their 23- and 24-year-olds.”

There was no bigger storyline going into Auburn’s Sweet 16 game against Michigan than the frontcourt battle.

Both teams like to play with two traditional centers, something rarely seen in modern college basketball. Michigan’s frontcourt of Danny Wolf and Vladislav Goldin was slightly bigger than Auburn’s pairing of Johni Broome and Dylan Cardwell.

Despite that, Auburn dominated the glass, grabbing 19 offensive rebounds, which helped the Tigers pull out a 78-65 win.

Those rebounds were especially important as Auburn’s offense struggled to find any flow or efficiency early in the game. The Tigers shot 32.4% from the field in the first half and turned the ball over 10 times.

However, Auburn outrebounded Michigan 29-17 and went into the break with nine second chance points compared to Michigan’s two. It continued in the second half has Auburn finished the game with 21 second chance points.

When Cardwell, Auburn’s starting center, was asked in the locker room after the game how Auburn gained such an advantage on the glass, his answer was as candid as it gets.

“I have no idea,” Cardwell said. “The grace of God? I don’t know.”

Cardwell said it was mentioned briefly on Auburn’s scouting report that Michigan might not be a great defensive rebounding team, but its size would still make it hard for Auburn to dominate on the glass the way it did.

Michigan came into the game ranking near the middle of Division I in defensive rebound percentage, but Auburn did a good job most of the game of keeping the Wolverines off the offensive glass too.

Michigan rebounded 26% of its misses Friday night, seven points lower than its season average.

“We have the best frontline in the country,” Broome said after the game. “We take pride in each matchup that we go against and we’re gonna bring it every night.”

Cardwell and Broome both suggested that the advantage on the glass came from Auburn’s will and effort more than anything schematic or overcomplicated.

“I would say that we wanted it more. This team, overall, we’re in the last year of college. The biggest thing we say in the team room and the locker room is we want to leave the court with no regrets,” Cardwell said. “Now, we can’t control our shots. We can’t control our free throws. We can’t control our layups. We can’t control a lot of things. But we can control our effort and energy.”

The rebounding advantage helped guarantee Auburn’s seniors at least one more game together, and the next one will be with a Final Four berth on the line.

Auburn’s Elite Eight game against Michigan State is scheduled to tip off at 4:05 p.m. Sunday. The game will be televised on CBS.

Peter Rauterkus covers Auburn sports for AL.com. You can follow him on X at @peter_rauterkus or email him at prauterkus@al.com