Heading into Tuesday night’s first and potentially only presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, and Republican former President Donald Trump, the race couldn’t be tighter in Michigan.

Late last month, a Free Press poll showed Trump ahead by the slimmest of margins − 47% to 46% for Harris in a head-to-head matchup and well within the statewide survey’s plus or minus 4-percentage-point margin of error.

But you don’t have to take our word for it alone. Some polls have shown Harris ahead and others have had Trump leading in the race for the state’s 15 Electoral College votes which will help determine the winner of the Nov. 5 election. But virtually every poll done of Michigan since the Democratic National Convention ended last month has shown a razor-thin margin between the two, meaning the debate offers both a chance to attract some of the still undecided voters (that Free Press poll showed 7% undecided in the head-to-head matchup.)

For what it’s worth, nationally Harris appears to have a lead of anywhere from about 1% to 3% over Trump, but because of the way presidential elections are structured − with each state and Washington D.C. awarding a certain number of Electoral College votes, with 270 needed to become president − and most states’ results considered all but a foregone conclusion, in reality the outcome will come down to how voters in a handful of more evenly divided swing states, including Michigan, decide.

Here are the polling averages in Michigan according to several websites that track and aggregate polling data, as of Monday afternoon:

∎FiveThirtyEight.com: Harris 46.7% (+1.9), Trump 44.8%.

∎RealClearPolitics.com: Harris 48.3% (+1.2), Trump 47.1%.

∎270towin.com: Harris 47.4% (+2), Trump 45.4%.

They’re different, by the way, because each site has its own methodology for which polls they aggregate and over what period of time but they’re generally a good bit in line with each other in terms of what voter surveys are showing.

And in Michigan, what they’re showing is a spread that is decidedly in too-close-to-call territory, especially given Trump’s knack for outperforming the polls. In 2020, for instance, Democratic President Joe Biden beat Trump by 2.8 percentage points in Michigan on his way to winning nationally, but polls on average had Biden ahead by more than 4 points going into Election Day. Four years before that, Trump won Michigan by two-tenths of a percentage point, even though polls on average had Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton ahead by more than 3 points on Election Day.

It’s a very similar story across the other handful of states − Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia − that will likely decide the race. Here’s what those polling averages look like in those states as of Monday, as well as the number of electoral votes each has and how each voted four years ago:

Pennsylvania (19 EC votes, 2020 result: Biden 50%-48.8% +1.2)

∎FiveThirtyEight.com: Harris 46.5% (+0.7), Trump 45.8%.

∎RealClearPolitics.com: Harris 47.6% (tie), Trump 47.6%.

∎270towin.com: Harris 46.8% (tie), Trump 46.8%.

Wisconsin (10 EC votes, 2020 result: Biden 49.6%-48.9% +0.7)

∎FiveThirtyEight.com: Harris 47.7% (+2.8), Trump 44.9%.

∎RealClearPolitics.com: Harris 48.7% (+1.5), Trump 47.2%.

∎270towin.com: Harris 48.4% (+2.8), Trump 45.6%.

Arizona (11 EC votes, 2020 result: Biden 49.4%-49.1% +0.3)

∎FiveThirtyEight.com: Trump 46.1% (+0.4), Harris 45.7%.

∎RealClearPolitics.com: Trump 48.4% (+1.6), Harris 46.8%.

∎270towin.com: Trump 47.8% (+1.8), Harris 46%.

Nevada (6 EC votes, 2020 result: Biden 50.1%-47.7% +2.4)

∎FiveThirtyEight.com: Harris 46% (+0.5), Trump 45.5%.

∎RealClearPolitics.com: Harris 48% (+0.6), Trump 47.4%.

∎270towin.com: Harris 48.2% (+1.4), Trump 46.8%.

North Carolina (16 EC votes, 2020 result: Trump 50%-48.7% +1.3)

∎FiveThirtyEight.com: Trump 46.7% (+0.7), Harris 45.9%.

∎RealClearPolitics.com: Trump 47.9% (+0.7), Harris 47.2%.

∎270towin.com: Trump 47.5% (+0.5), Harris 47%.

Georgia (16 EC votes, 2020 result: Biden 49.5%-49.2% +0.3)

∎FiveThirtyEight.com: Harris 46.5% (+0.3), Trump 46.2%.

∎RealClearPolitics.com: Harris 48.3% (+0.1), Harris 48.2%.

∎270towin.com: Harris 47% (tie), Trump 47%.

Contact Todd Spangler: tspangler@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter@tsspangler.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will be on the ballot in Michigan, the state’s highest court ruled Monday, despite Kennedy pushing to have his name removed after he ended his independent presidential campaign and endorsed former President Donald Trump.

The state Supreme Court court said in its majority opinion that Kennedy “has not shown an entitlement to this extraordinary relief” after seeking to have his name removed from the ballot, reversing a Michigan appeals court decision to take him off the ballot Friday after an appeal from the Michigan secretary of state.

Kennedy had qualified for the battleground state’s ballot after being nominated by the Natural Law Party, a minor party with ballot access in Michigan. In a concurring opinion, Michigan Supreme Court Justice Elizabeth Welch cited Natural Law Party chair Doug Dern’s opposition to Kennedy’s withdrawal four months after his party nominated Kennedy as part of her basis for concluding Kennedy did not have a “clear right” to be removed from the state’s ballot.

The decision undercuts Kennedy’s hope to push his supporters toward Trump after he endorsed the former president last month. Kennedy has been attempting to remove his name from battleground states as part of a strategy to maximize the Republican nominee’s support in places that could determine the outcome of the election. Last week, he told his supporters to back Trump “no matter what state you live in.”

While Kennedy’s support was in single digits when he dropped out of the presidential race last month, those voters could prove consequential to the outcome of closely contested states like Michigan. In a CNN poll released last week of likely voters in Michigan, Kennedy received 4% support despite having suspended his campaign. In that same poll, Vice President Kamala Harris led in Michigan with 48% over Trump’s 43%.

Kennedy has seen some success in his effort to be removed from the ballot in battleground states, with the North Carolina Supreme Court ruling in his favor Monday.

The Michigan ruling settles a hard-fought legal effort by Kennedy to remove his name from the state ballot, after initially losing a Michigan Court of Claims decision. He then appealed to the Michigan Court of Appeals, which ruled in his favor to remove him from the ballot Friday before that decision was overturned on Monday.

A spokesperson for Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson praised the state Supreme Court’s quick ruling in a statement, saying, “Clerks can now move forward with the ballot printing process to ensure absentee ballots will be delivered to voters by the federal deadlines.”

Absentee voting in Michigan is scheduled to start September 26, although ballots for overseas and military voters are required to go out by September 21.

This story has been updated with additional details.

Ethan Cohen contributed to this report.

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LANSING, Mich. (AP) — The Michigan Supreme Court ruled Monday that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will remain on the state’s November presidential ballot, ending Kennedy’s efforts to withdraw his name to help support former President Donald Trump.

Kennedy suspended his third-party presidential campaign and endorsed Trump in August. He sued Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, a Democrat, on Aug. 30 in an attempt to remove his name from the ballot so as not to siphon votes away from Trump, who won Michigan by about 10,000 votes in 2016.

Monday’s decision reverses an intermediate-level Court of Appeals ruling made Friday. It ensures that Kennedy’s name will appear on voters’ ballots in the valuable battleground state despite his withdrawal from the race.

The court said in a brief order that Kennedy “has not shown an entitlement to this extraordinary relief, and we reverse.”

“This plainly has nothing to do with ballot or election integrity,” Kennedy’s attorney, Aaron Siri, said in a written statement. “The aim is precisely the opposite — to have unwitting Michigan voters throw away their votes on a withdrawn candidate.”

Angela Benander, spokesperson for Benson’s office, said the department is grateful for the high court’s “swift response.”

“Clerks can now move forward with the ballot printing process to ensure absentee ballots will be delivered to voters by the federal deadlines,” Benander said in a written statement.

Kennedy is attempting to withdraw his name from states where the presidential race will be close in November. He had scored a legal victory in North Carolina and suffered a setback in Wisconsin Friday.

Justices nominated by Democrats currently hold a 4-3 majority on the Michigan Supreme Court. The order was unsigned and two Republican-nominated justices wrote a dissenting opinion.

“We can only hope that the Secretary’s misguided action — now sanctioned with the imprimatur of this Court — will not have national implications,” the dissenting justices wrote.

Kennedy was nominated for president by the Natural Law Party in Michigan. Benson had previously cited a state law saying candidates who are nominated and accept a minor party’s nomination “shall not be permitted to withdraw.”