• Kansas experienced a harsher winter than predicted by the Old Farmer’s Almanac.
• The Almanac predicted below-average snowfall, but Topeka has already exceeded its average snowfall for the season.
• The heavy snowfall and low temperatures in Kansas this winter contradict the Almanac’s forecast of a “temperate uneventful winter.”

Kansas has seen low temperatures, heavy snowfall, icy streets, school and government closures, and more this winter.

In September, we reported that the Old Farmer’s Almanac predicted a warmer than normal winter throughout the area, “with the coldest months occurring during late January and early and late February for Kansas and the Heartland region.”

So, is it safe to say the Old Farmer’s Almanac warned Kansans of the extreme winter?

How does The Old Farmer’s Almanac make its weather predictions?

Since its first edition in 1792, the Old Farmer’s Almanac compares “solar patterns and historical weather conditions with current solar activity” to make long-term predictions. It’s taken into account “a weak La Nina phase of the ENSO (El Nino/Southern Oscillation), USA Today reported.

“Like all forecasters, we have not yet gained sufficient insight into the mysteries of the universe to predict the weather with total accuracy, though our results are often very close to our traditional claim of 80%,” it says.

Was the Old Farmer’s Almanac accurate about winter in Kansas?

It depends on your point of view whether the almanac is always accurate.

But weather forecasters typically pooh-pooh the almanac’s predictions. A University of Illinois study from 2010, cited by Popular Mechanics in an October 2022 story, found the Old Farmer’s Almanac only about 52% accurate over the years, “which is essentially random chance,” USA Today reported.

This winter, the Old Farmer’s Almanac forecast, in general predicted, “a temperate uneventful winter,” — that’s something Kansan’s might not agree with.

But, the U.S. was hit in January with a major winter storm followed by an Arctic blast of below-average temperatures across the country. Then, a “once-in-a-generation weather event” hit the South and set snowfall records from Texas to Florida.

Topeka is seeing above-average snowfall this cold weather season, as the National Weather Service records showed the 4 inches of snow that fell in late February. That most current snowfall brought the city’s total for the year to 24.6 inches.

The capital city seen its third snowiest day on record in early January with 14 inches of snow. Even higher snowfall, totaling as much as 18 inches, recorded in parts of Pottawatomie, Nemaha, Marshall, Riley and Brown counties.

More: How much snow Topeka and northeast Kansas has gotten by noon Wednesday

The Farmer’s Almanac winter predictions for Kansas and the Heartland region included snowfall and precipitation would be below average. With the most snow falling when temperatures are coldest in “late January as well as early and late February.”

Though Kansas did see snowfall through those periods, snow first arrived in early January, despite the almanac’s “late January” prediction. Kansans might also not agree with the Almanac that snowfall was “below average” this season.