The Houston Texans will square off with the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 16 of the NFL season at Arrowhead Stadium on Saturday at 1 p.m. EST. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have yet to score 30 points in a game this season, and with a predicted score of 23-20, our data model thinks that streak will remain intact. However, our experts believe the oddsmaker have gotten overly aggressive with the total: our best bet for today is Over 41.5 points (-115).

In anticipation of this late-season AFC clash, the data analysts at Dimers.com have simulated the game 10,000 times, and then compared these results to current NFL betting odds to inform the data-driven betting preview provided to you below.

This preview includes Dimers’ best bets and predicted scoreline for Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs. To unlock Dimers’ full suite of data-driven betting insights, which includes daily props, trends, and parlays, sign up for Dimers Pro with promo code SYRACUSE10, which will save you 10% off your first subscription payment.

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Texans vs. Chiefs betting preview

Utilize the interactive widget below to discover the current spread, over/under, and moneyline betting odds and probabilities for the Texans-Chiefs game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.

This prediction and best bet for Saturday’s NFL matchup between the Texans and Chiefs is from Dimers.com, a trusted source for sports betting predictions.

Check out all the important details on today’s game, as well as the best odds sourced from the top sportsbooks in the country.

Game details

Key information on the Texans vs. Chiefs matchup, including where the game is and what time it kicks off.

• Teams: Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs
• Date: Saturday, December 21, 2024
• Kickoff: 1 p.m. EST
• Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
• NFL standings: Current NFL division standings
• NFL injuries: Check the latest updates to the official NFL injury report

Odds

The latest and best odds for the NFL battle between the Texans and Chiefs.

• Spread: Texans +3.5 (-115), Chiefs -3.5 (-102)
• Moneyline: Texans +160, Chiefs -180
• Total: Over/Under 41.5 (-115/-105)

The odds and lines presented here are the best available from selected sports betting sites at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Expert prediction: Texans vs. Chiefs

Utilizing state-of-the-art data analysis and advanced algorithms, the experts at Dimers have performed 10,000 simulations of Saturday’s Texans vs. Chiefs game.

According to Dimers’ famous predictive analytics model, the Chiefs are more likely to beat the Texans at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. This prediction is based on the model giving the Chiefs a 63% chance of winning the game.

Elsewhere on the betting board, Dimers predicts that the bookies have gotten it right and the Texans and Chiefs each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 41.5 points has a 56% chance of going over.

As always, these predictions and probabilities are correct at the time of publication but are subject to change.

Texans vs. Chiefs best bet

Our top pick for the Texans vs. Chiefs Week 16 NFL game is to bet on Over 41.5 points (-115).

This betting advice is formulated through detailed simulations and valuable wagering intelligence, designed to deliver you the best possible plays.

Score prediction for Texans vs. Chiefs

Dimers’ projected final score for the Houston vs. Kansas City game on Saturday has the Chiefs winning 23-20.

This expert prediction is based on each team’s average score following 10,000 game simulations, offering a glimpse into the potential outcome.

NFL player props: Saturday

NFL player props are an exciting way to wager on Saturday’s game without necessarily betting on its outcome.

This article features the most likely first and anytime touchdown scorers for the Texans and Chiefs, along with projected player stats.

Houston Texans

First touchdown scorer predictions

• Joe Mixon: 14.4% probability
• Nico Collins: 10.6% probability
• Tank Dell: 6.6% probability

Anytime touchdown predictions

• Joe Mixon: 53.3% probability
• Nico Collins: 41.6% probability
• Tank Dell: 28.4% probability

Projected box score leaders

• QB passing yards: C.J. Stroud, 270 yards
• Receiving yards: Nico Collins, 86 yards
• Rushing yards: Joe Mixon, 73 yards

Kansas City Chiefs

First touchdown scorer predictions

• Isiah Pacheco: 8.2% probability
• DeAndre Hopkins: 7.3% probability
• Xavier Worthy: 6.7% probability

Anytime touchdown predictions

• Isiah Pacheco: 34.1% probability
• DeAndre Hopkins: 30.0% probability
• Travis Kelce: 28.7% probability

Projected box score leaders

• QB passing yards: Patrick Mahomes, 274 yards
• Receiving yards: Travis Kelce, 64 yards
• Rushing yards: Isiah Pacheco, 51 yards

NFL Week 16: Texans vs. Chiefs

Get ready for Saturday’s matchup between the Texans and Chiefs in Week 16 of the NFL season at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, which is scheduled to start at 1 p.m. EST. We emphasize that all of the NFL best bets and NFL predictions on this page are based on 10,000 data-driven simulations of the Texans vs. Chiefs matchup, and they are accurate at the time of publication. They aim to assist you make more informed choices when placing bets at online sportsbooks.

Please note that when engaging in online betting, it is important to exercise responsible gambling practices and consult reputable sources for the latest and most accurate information.

The Kansas State football team added another commitment on Friday.

West Georgia safety Mar’Quavious Moss announced he will continue his career with the Wildcats. He has two years of eligibility left.

KLIEMAN TALKS RUTGERS

Kansas State coach Chris Klieman almost visibly exhaled a sigh of relief when asked about Rate Bowl preparation.

With so much talk about recruiting and the transfer portal, Klieman finally had the opportunity to rave about facing a team like the Scarlet Knights.

“Greg Schiano is a phenomenal football coach, so much respect for him,” Klieman said. “I have not had the chance to meet him yet. I’m excited about that just because of the respect I have for him. They’re gonna be disciplined, they’re gonna be physical, they’re not gonna beat themselves. I’m sure they’re gonna be going through some of the same things, whether it’s injuries, trying to play some young guys, to maybe a guy deciding if he’s going to the NFL. That makes it a little bit difficult to prep, but our guys are really excited to be able to play a Big Ten school.”

GIDDENS, PARISH OUT

Running back DJ Giddens and defensive back Jacob Parrish have officially played their last collegiate games.

Klieman confirmed Friday they will not play against Rutgers.

“Those are the only two, I think, outside the portal that aren’t playing,” Klieman said.

Parrish and Giddens have declared for the 2025 NFL Draft. Giddens is projected to be selected in the second or third round, while Parrish is likely a Day 3 acquisition.

Shandel Richardson is the publisher of Kansas State Wildcats On SI. He can be reached at shandelrich@gmail.com

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Kansas State has landed another player out of the transfer portal. West Georgia safety Mar’Quavious Moss has committed to K-State.

The announcement from Moss comes shortly after an official visit to Kansas State. His visit took place December 14th and he has been one of many prospects in Manhattan in the past few weeks. Moss has had a busy visit schedule as he has visited Georgia Tech, Tulane, Virginia and Houston in addition to K-State. Nebraska was involved late and got the last visit, which forced Moss to push his commitment back a day.

A tip of the hat goes to the Wildcats defensive coordinator and safeties coach Joe Klanderman. Kansas State was the first school to offer Moss when he entered the transfer portal and made him a major priority. K-State also had the advantage of Moss previously playing at Dodge City Community College for one season and has a connection to West Georgia on the Wildcats staff as Assistant Director of On Campus Recruiting Riley Galpin spent the last two years at West Georgia.

The true sophomore safety had a productive first season at West Georgia. He totaled 56 tackles with nine being tackles for a loss and 4.5 sacks along with four pass breakups and a forced fumble. His work around the line of scrimmage likely will have him playing the ‘Jack’ safety role in Manhattan.

According to the On3 Industry Ranking (a combination of all four recruiting services), Moss is the No. 120 player in the transfer portal. He is also the No. 9 safety in the transfer portal as well as the No. 6 safety among players still available.

Moss is the No. 27 player added to the Wildcats roster in the 2025 recruiting class and is the third transfer added. The West Point, Georgia native will come to Kansas State with two seasons of eligibility remaining. He also has a redshirt available.