Iowa
Will ‘Iowa Silver’ give Trump a run for his money in the primary? Could Trump win a general?
Former President Trump’s commanding lead in polls can make him seem like the inevitable Republican nominee. Voters could also be forgiven for thinking a general election race with the same candidates will lead to the same outcome.
Still, there are a few real pathways for another Republican to take advantage of the primary calendar and give Trump a run for his money.
And while it’s possible Joe Biden will win another close general election, Democrats have good reason to be nervous about 2024, even if Trump is the nominee.
Our advice for a shrewd bettor: Take the odds and bet on the horse named “Iowa Silver,” and don’t believe the conventional wisdom that makes Trump a “sure loser.”
NEW POLL: TIGHT RACE BETWEEN TRUMP, BIDEN WITH RFK, CORNEL WEST INDEPENDENT BIDS THREATENING BOTH CANDIDATES
The most recent Fox poll has Trump at 46% support. (Sean Rayford)
Primaries: a Trump nomination is very likely but not a sure thing
Iowa Republicans are about 12 weeks away from their caucus, which is still the first stop on the road to the nomination.
The most recent Fox poll in that state has Trump at 46%, with a 31-point buffer between him and any of his rivals. If the caucus were held today, Trump would almost certainly win the most delegates.
But let’s state the obvious: Someone will finish second in Iowa. Yes, they say in the Olympics “silver may be silver, but it is still second.” But it could easily give that individual momentum to attract Republicans who are not sold on a third Trump nomination and are looking for a candidate to consolidate the field.
That person — “Iowa Silver” — then heads into an early primary calendar that might give the candidate an opportunity to turn the race into a challenge for the frontrunner.
- How the calendar could help “Iowa Silver”: Well, the New Hampshire primary is shortly thereafter. Republicans in the state are less supportive of Trump than Republicans nationally and, moreover, independents can vote in the New Hampshire primary. And the state is led by Gov. Chris Sununu, who has made his opposition to Trump known and is the scion of a state political dynasty known for its ability to bring voters to the polls. Sununu has made clear his interest in endorsing someone other than Trump. It might be hard to win a bet on who Iowa Silver will be, but you can be certain that Sununu will take a hard look at endorsing him or her.
- Additionally, the field will narrow: Expect candidates to start dropping out. As candidates exit the race, those remaining see higher levels of support.
- “Iowa Silver” will get increased media attention: The second-place candidate is, by default, the biggest threat to Trump, generating significant media attention, just as the greater public begins to focus on the race.
- …and more donor support: Many big donors are focused on trying to find the “Trump alternative.” Some have even tried to recruit other candidates into the field. Expect them to quickly start taking calls from Iowa Silver.
Yes, “Iowa Silver” is likely to be a distant second. That might matter, but on the other hand, New Hampshire voters have a history of giving the second-place Iowa finisher a solid look. In 1984, Senator Gary Hart came in second in Iowa with only 16.5% of Iowa caucus support, a distant second to former Vice President Walter Mondale, who got 49% of caucus attenders. Eight days later, Hart humiliated Mondale in the New Hampshire primary by almost 10 points.
If these factors play out, the leading alternative candidate will get more delegates than current polling suggests, and the overall race will be more competitive than the polling suggests.
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Still, once we reach Super Tuesday, the shape of the race will morph again, likely benefiting Trump. Many states that night award all delegates to the majority vote winner and/or require candidates to reach a high threshold to win any delegates. That makes it harder for a challenger to take down the frontrunner.
While Trump maintains a lead, polling shows Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis as the No. 2 presidential primary candidate. (Scott Olson)
So, for the overall race to become competitive, a leading alternative would need to emerge after Iowa (Jan. 15) and by Super Tuesday (March 4).
Today, polling points to Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley as the second-place candidate. Support for DeSantis has fallen, but he remains in second place in national — and Iowa — polls.
Haley is making gains, especially in New Hampshire, but also in Iowa.
Haley benefits more from the primary calendar since South Carolina is also an early state. She gets 18% there in the latest Fox survey, which is the most support of any non-Trump candidate in any recent national or state poll. It’s still an uphill climb because South Carolina is also a winner-take-all state, but she does have a hometown advantage.
Scott is also “all in” on the state.
This is just one scenario. Trump has a commanding polling lead. The most likely outcome is that he will win the nomination.
But keep your eye on the calendar and on whether “Iowa Silver” can take advantage of second place.
General election: A Biden vs. Trump rematch could be highly competitive, and Trump could win
If there is a rematch between Biden and Trump, it won’t necessarily lead to the same outcome as the 2020 election.
GOP candidate Nikki Haley (Joshua Comins)
Biden eked out a victory in that race. The average margin in the three closest states — Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin — was about 14,000 votes. Had he lost all three, there would have been a tie in the electoral college, and a loss in those same states today would have meant losing the election outright (thanks to electoral college reapportionment).
This gives the incumbent very little wiggle room in 2024.
Head-to-head polling averages put support for Trump and Biden at about 45 points each. That is mostly a base party vote. In other words, voters who will always support the Democratic or Republican candidate.
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That leaves roughly 10 points of undecided vote. Where those voters go will depend on the issues, many of which are unique to 2024. Some examples:
Dem fears:
- Biden is four years older, and voters have noticed. This also puts a spotlight on the relatively unpopular Harris.
- Voters are giving low marks to Biden on the economy and immigration.
- Support for aid to Ukraine is falling, and, especially in light of the current war between Israel and Hamas, there is likely to be a debate on U.S. involvement in both wars, especially Ukraine
- Donald Trump has proven he can turn out rural and exurban voters, who can be decisive in the battleground states of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin
Voters are giving low marks to President Biden on the economy and immigration. (Chip Somodevilla)
GOP fears:
- Trump has not appeared on a ballot since 2020; he is now under multiple indictments for his post-election actions and may have to appear in a televised criminal trial in Georgia before the next election.
- Abortion is a liability, especially in Arizona, where a constitutional measure is likely to appear on the ballot.
A non-Trump nomination would be a game changer. It would likely reduce turnout for both parties. It could also put more moderate voters in play for the GOP.
There are many other unknowns. The threat of war, impact of the Trump trials or a Biden health scare are top of mind.
All of this could add up to a vastly different outcome in 2024, ranging from a comfortable Biden victory to a highly competitive race that Trump wins.
Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. recently announced he would be launching an independent run for president after initially jumping into the Democratic race. (Hans Gutknecht)
Role of third parties
There are three nascent third-party efforts. Based on polling and their messaging, we have some idea of who these candidates appeal to:
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- Robert F Kennedy Jr.’s anti-vaccine and generally anti-elite message is most likely to resonate with right-leaning libertarians and independents who would prefer not to vote for Trump. That’s why, in a recent Suffolk/USA Today poll, his 13% of support comes from voters who by 2-1 say they would otherwise support the probable GOP nominee.
- Cornel West, a progressive philosopher and political activist, is fighting for a sliver of far-left vote. He would pull some votes from Biden, but at 4% total support in the same Suffolk poll, he appears to be less of a liability to Biden than RFK is to Trump.
- No Labels is targeting moderates and could pick off some of the suburban voters who got Biden over the line in 2020. Much of it depends on the candidate.
Iowa State quarterback Rocco Becht believes the Cyclones have yet to hit their peak during their best start in 86 years.
Carson Hansen rushed for three scores, Becht threw a touchdown pass and No. 11 Iowa State beat West Virginia 28-16 on Saturday night.
The Cyclones (6-0, 3-0 Big 12) opened the season with six wins for the first time since 1938.
“I feel like we haven’t even played our best game yet as a whole — special teams, defense, and offense,” Becht said. The goal is “finding ways to get better each and every single week, and our mindset is just 0-0 and trying to win that next game.”
Iowa State forged a first-place tie in the league with BYU and idle Texas Tech.
The Cyclones broke open a close game by scoring two touchdowns after intercepting West Virginia’s Garrett Greene in the second half.
Becht found Eli Green on passes of 12 and 34 yards on consecutive plays to set up the Cyclones at the West Virginia 17. A third-down holding call on West Virginia cornerback Ayden Garnes gave Iowa State first-and-goal at the 3, and Hansen scored on the next play for a 21-10 lead early in the fourth quarter.
Jontez Williams made his third interception of the season on West Virginia’s next drive, and Iowa State took over at the Mountaineers’ 34. Hansen ran for 20 yards on the ensuing drive, capped by his 2-yard scoring run for a 28-10 lead with 4:42 left.
Hansen, a sophomore who also scored on an 11-yard run in the second quarter, finished with 96 rushing yards, one shy of the career high he set last week against Baylor. He ran for a total of 67 yards during an injury-filled freshman season.
“For him to consistently play the way he has the last couple of weeks, it’s awesome to watch,” Becht said.
West Virginia (3-3, 2-1) was held to 148 rushing yards against the league’s top defense after amassing 389 yards on the ground a week ago at Oklahoma State. The Mountaineers were hurt by several high snaps that threw off their timing and runs parallel to the line of scrimmage that lost yardage.
“In the second half, when it was winning time, we didn’t win,” said West Virginia coach Neal Brown. “We struggled to get into a rhythm.”
Becht completed 18 of 26 passes for 265 yards, including a 60-yard scoring toss to Jaylin Noel in blown coverage in the second quarter.
Becht’s father, Anthony, was honored on the field after the first quarter for his induction into the West Virginia Sports Hall of Fame. He played tight end for the Mountaineers from 1996-99 and 11 seasons in the NFL.
“You couldn’t ask for a greater night for his family,” Iowa State coach Matt Campbell said.
Rocco Becht said he wished he could have been there with his dad, “but I had bigger things going on trying to win this game.”
Jahiem White had an 8-yard scoring run and a 10-yard TD catch for West Virginia. Greene finished 18 of 32 for 206 yards.
Iowa State: The Cyclones answered the challenge on both sides of the ball in winning their seventh straight road game. Becht played smart and efficient, and the nation’s sixth-best scoring defense was stout again.
West Virginia: The Mountaineers many too many mistakes at key times and now have lost eight consecutive games to ranked opponents.
Iowa State might have a tough time moving up when the AP poll comes out on Sunday. The Cyclones were tied at No. 11 with Notre Dame, which beat Stanford 49-7.
Iowa State: Hosts UCF on Saturday night.
West Virginia: Hosts No. 18 Kansas State on Saturday night.
___ Get alerts on the latest AP Top 25 poll throughout the season. Sign up here. AP college football: https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-football-poll and https://apnews.com/hub/college-football
Iowa
Iowa football isn’t always pretty, but because of Kirk Ferentz, it has punched above its weight class
IOWA CITY, Iowa — In unseasonably warm air and beneath a blueish haze over Kinnick Stadium, Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz took a moment to himself with two minutes left and his team wrapping up a 40-16 win against Washington.
Ferentz stood apart from his team on the sideline with his headset on as his offense huddled during the media timeout. On the video board, his picture appeared. Public address announcer Mark Abbott relayed that Ferentz was about to win his 200th game as Iowa’s head coach, passing Amos Alonzo Stagg for second in Big Ten history. The crowd stood and applauded, and Ferentz acknowledged them with a wave.
GO DEEPER
Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz earns 200th career win as Big Ten coach
Tight end Luke Lachey gave him a hug, as did running back Kaleb Johnson. Backup quarterback Marco Lainez III shook his hand. With 33 seconds left, Ferentz walked to the TigerHawk at midfield, shook hands with Washington counterpart Jedd Fisch and completed an interview with Fox Sports. More subdued than emotional, Ferentz jogged off the playing surface, up the tunnel and into Iowa’s locker room where his players welcomed him with a water bottle shower.
Sunshine and 70-degree days — literally or figuratively — rarely have followed Ferentz into October in his coaching career, so the picturesque autumn setting was abnormal for college football’s longest-tenured coach. However, how Ferentz and the Hawkeyes responded to a 35-7 loss to Ohio State last week went entirely by script.
There are two defining characteristics through the highs and lows of Ferentz’s 26 years at Iowa: One, his players trust him and believe in him. The other truth is, no football coach — thus, no program — responds better to adversity than Ferentz and his Hawkeyes.
Ferentz’s entire career has revolved around continual improvement. And Iowa has gone very far following Ferentz’s ethos.
“He’s the same person every day,” said left tackle Mason Richman, who is in his fifth season. “He brings the same exact energies. You know exactly what to expect from him, no matter what the scoreboard says.”
Iowa rarely recruits five-star players and mostly signs three-star prospects. Only once in his career did Iowa finish in the top 15 in national recruiting, and that was in 2005. The Hawkeyes are a low-offer program because they heavily research character in recruiting. They want high achievers with good grades who were team captains in multiple sports. To Ferentz and his staff, those players invest themselves and improve others.
“I feel like we recruit the type of the right type of guys,” Iowa linebacker Jay Higgins said. “We just don’t have selfish guys in the locker room. So when you have good guys who understand what a team should look like, and then you also have a good leader, it’s easy to stand together. I just think this team, this program, anytime there’s adversity, we only get closer.”
Those types of players are built to handle challenges, and Iowa continues to have the right coach to navigate them through it. The examples in Ferentz’s era abound.
• In 2016, the Hawkeyes gave up 599 yards in a 41-14 massacre at eventual Big Ten champion Penn State. As a three-touchdown home underdog to No. 2 Michigan the following week, Iowa bounced back with a stunning 14-13 upset.
• Sitting at the midpoint of the 2008 season, Iowa was 15-16 over 2 1/2 seasons. Ferentz never wavered, and neither did his team. The Hawkeyes won their final four games to end that season, and then their first nine in 2009. They finished with their highest final ranking (No. 7) since 1960.
• In 2014, Iowa continued a slope of mediocrity by losing all four rivalry trophy games and finishing 7-6. The next year, dubbed “New Kirk,” Ferentz switched practices from afternoon to morning and became much more open in the public. The players responded in 2015 with a spirit of togetherness, leading to a school-record 12 wins. From that year onward, Iowa ranks tied for 10th among power-conference teams in victories.
• Two years ago, Iowa’s offense was among the nation’s worst in every category. After a 7-3 season-opening win against South Dakota State in which the Hawkeyes scored on two safeties and a field goal, linebacker Jack Campbell shot down any question that dealt with division. Campbell’s attitude set the tone for that season and it carried over to 2023, in which Iowa’s offense posted the Big Ten’s worst statistical numbers in nearly 40 years. Yet there was no sniping, let alone dissension. The team eventually claimed the Big Ten West Division crown.
• In 2004, Iowa started 2-2, including a 44-7 loss at Arizona State. Despite losing four scholarship running backs to injury, the Hawkeyes held it together with defense mixed with an occasional highlight-reel play. The Hawkeyes won their final eight games, claimed a share of the Big Ten title and won the Capital One Bowl with a 56-yard touchdown pass on the game’s final play.
That 2004 team was honored Saturday before the second quarter to rousing applause. One of its stars, defensive tackle Jonathan Babineaux, was Iowa’s honorary captain on Saturday. It was a team molded by adversity, and it charted an unconventional path of success. It even took a safety midway through the fourth quarter against Penn State in a 6-4 win. Ferentz gave the eulogy at his father’s funeral in Pittsburgh the day before that game.
Most teams would have crumbled in any of those situations, but Iowa never did.
Why? Ferentz.
“It’s definitely his leadership,” Higgins said. “He truly only cares about the guys in the locker room. When you’ve got a guy like that thinking you’re able to respond, it’s nice. He’s not gonna freak out. Doesn’t matter what the headline is. He’s not gonna come to the meeting room and read off the headlines. He keeps his voice, and we all respond off him. If he’s calm and he knows that we need to respond after a bad game or a tough situation, we’re all going to follow that.”
None of those anecdotes mean Ferentz is perfect. Far from it. Critiques are plentiful about his son, Brian, running his offense for seven years, especially when the final three were so rough. Brian remained in place until university president Barbara Wilson and athletic director Beth Goetz stepped in and dismissed him following the 2023 season. Other complaints about Ferentz’s game-day decision making are fair.
And in 2020, dozens of former players accused the program of racial insensitivity and bias, which was confirmed through an independent investigation. Instead of resisting necessary changes or stepping down, Ferentz opted for a new course. He accepted responsibility and sought counsel from former players, relieved longtime strength coach Chris Doyle and extended a leadership council to include more voices. Many arbitrary rules such as not using X or wearing hoodies in the football complex were vacated. Although some feel the changes didn’t go far enough — while others believed they went too far — there’s no doubt the program has become more welcoming to all players. Its attrition rate is among the lowest in the Big Ten, and it has won the third most games in the Big Ten since that season.
With Ferentz’s guidance, Iowa has punched well above its weight class.
Its recruiting rankings are closer to those of Illinois and Purdue than Michigan and Penn State, yet the Hawkeyes’ results are closer to the latter. Iowa finds ways to win where its peers fall short. It’s not always pretty and perhaps it won’t ever win the ultimate prize. But that Iowa remains anywhere near the College Football Playoff rankings most years is a credit to Ferentz.
“I appreciate him how much this program means to him,” Richman said. “When you get an appreciation like that, you’re less stressed out. With him at the helm, this place has a really special place in my heart and the hearts of many across the entire state.”
(Top photo of Kirk Ferentz: Matthew Holst / Getty Images)
Iowa
What channel is Iowa State vs. West Virginia game tonight (10/12/24)? FREE LIVE STREAM, Time, TV, Channel for college football, Week 7
The No. 11 Iowa State Cyclones, led by quarterback Rocco Becht, face the West Virginia Mountaineers, led by quarterback Garrett Greene on Saturday, Oct. 12, 2024 (10/12/24) at Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium in Morgantown, W. Va.
How to watch: Fans can watch the game for free via a trial of DirecTV Stream or fuboTV. You can also watch via a subscription to Sling TV.
Here’s what you need to know:
What: NCAA Football, Week 7
Who: Iowa State vs. West Virginia
When: Saturday, Oct. 12, 2024
Where: Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium
Time: 8 p.m. ET
TV: FOX
Live stream: fuboTV (free trial), DirecTV Stream (free trial)
***
Here are the best streaming options for college football this season:
Fubo TV (free trial): fuboTV carries ESPN, FOX, ABC, NBC and CBS.
DirecTV Stream (free trial): DirecTV Stream carries ESPN, FOX, NBC and CBS.
Sling TV ($25 off the first month)– Sling TV carries ESPN, FOX, ABC and NBC.
ESPN+($9.99 a month): ESPN+ carries college football games each weekend for only $9.99 a month. These games are exclusive to the platform.
Peacock TV ($5.99 a month): Peacock will simulstream all of NBC Sports’ college football games airing on the NBC broadcast network this season, including Big Ten Saturday Night. Peacock will also stream Notre Dame home games. Certain games will be streamed exclusively on Peacock this year as well.
Paramount+ (free trial): Paramount Plus will live stream college football games airing on CBS this year.
***
Here’s a preview capsule via the Associated Press:
No. 11 Iowa State (5-0, 2-0 Big 12) at West Virginia (3-2, 2-0), Saturday, 8 p.m. ET (Fox)
BetMGM College Football Odds: Iowa State by 3.
Series record: West Virginia leads 6-5.
WHAT’S AT STAKE?
Iowa State is off to its best start since 1980, and a win would make them 6-0 for the first time since 1938. The Cyclones are looking to extend their road winning streak to seven games. West Virginia is going after its third straight win after a 1-2 start. Iowa State and West Virginia are 2-0 in conference play. One of them will forge a first-place tie with idle Texas Tech.
KEY MATCHUP
Iowa State’s defense vs. West Virginia QB Garrett Greene. Of the dual-threat quarterbacks the Cyclones have faced so far, Greene could be the best. He had runs of 39, 15 and 10 yards against Oklahoma State last week and is averaging 5.4 yards per carry and 59 yards per game. Run defense hasn’t been a strength for the Cyclones, who hope to force Greene to try to beat them through the air. Iowa State has the Big 12’s top defense, allowing just 10 points and 272 yards per game.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Iowa State: LB Kooper Ebel has led or co-led the team in tackles in three straight games. He made just three tackles in eight games as a freshman last year. He added 15 pounds to get up to 240 on his 6-foot-4 frame and has made at least six stops in all five games. Last week he had eight tackles and a quarterback hurry against Baylor.
West Virginia: RB Jahiem White. The sophomore ran for a season-high 158 yards in the lopsided win at Oklahoma State and the Mountaineers compiled 389 on the ground. White hopes to be back on track after being limited to 94 yards combined against No. 4 Penn State, No. 22 Pittsburgh and Kansas.
FACTS & FIGURES
Anthony Becht, a tight end for the Mountaineers from 1996 to 1999, will be honored during the game for his induction into the West Virginia Sports Hall of Fame. His son, Rocco, is Iowa State’s quarterback. … The Cyclones have won 12 straight when scoring at least 30 points. They’ve scored at least 30 in the last five meetings with WVU. … ISU had nine plays of 20 or more yards against Baylor last week, tied for the most by a Power Four team against a conference opponent this season. … The Cyclones’ defense gets better as the game progresses. They’re allowing an average of 4.0 points and 112 yards in the second halves. … West Virginia will wear all-black uniforms in honor of the state’s coal mining industry.
(The Associated Press contributed to this report)
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