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Trump could win Iowa but voters' second choice is absolutely critical

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Trump could win Iowa but voters' second choice is absolutely critical


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Politics rarely comes out as all the commentators expect and nowhere is this truer than in the Republican and Democratic primary processes that starts with the Iowa caucuses.

There should be no surprise, however, that former president Donald Trump will win the Iowa caucus – he has a commanding lead among the conservative electorate there and the process of a caucus benefits the activists who come out and organize for this multi-hour event of mass persuasion. He is scoring record leads in the Des Moines Register poll.

The big question is what is going to happen with the remaining Trump opponents and whether Iowa will shrink the field even further. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis started this primary season with all of the advantages of early momentum, a big electoral win in his home state, and great funding and yet seems to be limping to the finish line. 

If he finishes a strong second, he could revive his campaign; if he finishes third, I would expect him to drop out. He has both the most to win and the most to lose in this primary.

DESANTIS SHUTS DOWN RUMORS HE’LL DROP OUT OF 2024 RACE IF HE LOSES IN IOWA: ‘TOTALLY MADE UP’

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Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley has the most to win and little to lose here. She was never expected to do well in Iowa though she has been showing consistent momentum month after month. The polls place her in a close third place and that kind of finish would set her up for New Hampshire. If she finishes second instead, she would get a huge boost, especially if DeSantis drops out and either endorses her or refrains from siding with any of the candidates.

The big question is what is going to happen with the remaining Trump opponents and whether Iowa will shrink the field even further.

Remember that this is an arcane process but the rules have been changed this year so that it is more like a primary – people have to show up in the evening hours and possibly listen to some speeches but then they just vote by secret ballot – registered Republicans only, but people can switch their party registration if they want to become Republicans. 

As you may recall, last time the Iowa caucus became so advanced and computerized that no one could actually figure out the results and the whole thing was essentially called off. 

This time the Democrats have called off the Democratic caucus for real – it is part of their “threat to democracy” campaign which they seem to advance by eliminating actual democracy. 

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So, President Joe Biden can’t lose or win – or be challenged. There will be a Democratic caucus but only for party administrative matters, not presidential preferences. Instead, Democrats can request a form, get a mail in ballot and return it by March 5th, when it will be tallied. Seems that some want mail in votes to be easy for general elections but not for primaries, as these ballots are not mailed to all Democrats but only those who request them. 

HERE’S WHO KEY LAWMAKERS HAVE ALREADY ENDORSED FOR PRESIDENT AHEAD OF THE IOWA CAUCUSES

Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. left the Democratic party over the favoritism for the current president by the party establishment and Rep. Dean Philips is staying in, but the Biden team is busy eliminating him from as many caucuses and primaries as they can. 

Philips has been removed from the ballots in Florida and North Carolina even though he is not accused of leading an insurrection; they have put him on the Iowa mail-in caucus card along with Marianne Williamson – they just won’t get around to tabulating them until March. 

Vivek Ramaswamy and Chris Christie appear to have faded in the Iowa caucus and if the polls are right will face some difficult choices after the caucus is held. 

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Ramaswamy continues to predict a major upset but he seems to have been one of those firecracker candidates that burst upon the scene and then fade under scrutiny. 

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Christie never really caught on and has headlined that his campaign’s purpose is to defeat Donald Trump, which certainly does not seem to be happening in Iowa.

In general, the Iowa caucuses have not been great predictors for who wins on the Republican side. Mike Huckabee won in 2008; Ron Paul won in 2012; Ted Cruz won in 2016. 

Given this track record, it’s a little unclear why Republicans put so much effort into this caucus, but going first still sets a tone, and it has been especially important for who finishes second as that candidate has more often gone on to win.

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So far, Trump skipped all the GOP debates, but he knows the political power of a strong start and is hoping to dominate in Iowa and use this as proof that he is rip-roaring back despite his issues and legal peril. 

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He is showing up in Iowa and pressing the flesh now.  

It looks like he is likely to get his wish in Iowa but remember — even when we think we know what is going to happen, politics and especially primaries often confound us. 

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM MARK PENN

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Univ. of Iowa students practice life-saving skills through realistic medical simulations

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Univ. of Iowa students practice life-saving skills through realistic medical simulations


IOWA CITY, Iowa (KCRG) – Some students at the University of Iowa are getting hands-on medical experience before the spring semester officially begins — and they’re doing it inside a mobile simulation lab.

Wednesday, Simulation in Motion-Iowa (SIM-IA) brought its high-tech training truck to the university’s main hospital campus during what’s known as “transitions week,” just days before physician assistant students head out on clinical rotations.

Instead of practicing on classmates, students worked through simulated emergency scenarios using lifelike mannequins designed to closely mimic real patients. The mannequins can breathe, blink, sweat, and even go into cardiac arrest — giving students a realistic first taste of what they’ll soon face in hospitals and clinics.

“So they have pulses like you and I, they have lung sounds, breath tones, so they get to practice their patient assessments — their head-to-toes, what they think is wrong with that patient, determine what treatments they’re going to offer and do,” said Lisa Lenz, a Simulation in Motion-Iowa instructor.

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Lenz controls the mannequins’ movements and symptoms behind the scenes, adjusting each scenario based on how students respond in real time.

“We can kind of assess and watch and make sure they’re doing the skills that we would expect them to do, we then get to change and flow through our scenario,” Lenz said. “So we start out with a healthy patient, maybe something like chest pains and continue through states of either progression or decline.”

Faculty members say the goal is to help students bridge the gap between classroom learning and real patient care — especially with clinical rotations beginning soon.

“This is now putting book work to the clinical practice,” said Jeremy Nelson, a clinical assistant professor in the university’s Department of PA Studies and Services. “We’re getting them ready to go out to various scenarios.”

Nelson says repetition is key, especially since some medical emergencies are rare while others are unpredictable.

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“They may see them 10 times on rotation, they may see them once,” Nelson said. “This gives them that ‘first touch’ so when they do see it they have a better chance of learning more and being engaged and practicing.”

The spring semester at the University of Iowa officially begins January 20 for those students. Faculty say experiences like this help boost confidence and reduce anxiety before students ever step into a real emergency situation.



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To Save An Endangered Prairie Fish, Dried-up Iowa Wetlands Get New Life – Inside Climate News

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To Save An Endangered Prairie Fish, Dried-up Iowa Wetlands Get New Life – Inside Climate News


The minnow U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service ecologists pulled from the shallow moat was a puny thing, with a flare of orange rimming its fins and a dark band of scales running the full length of its inch-and-a-half body. 

“Finally,” thought Kathy Law, as she peered at the little fish. In the summer sun, it glinted metallic.

Topeka shiners once thrived in small and medium streams across the Great Plains. But for several decades, the fish have been hard to find. 

For three summers, Law, a farmer and attorney, had watched expectantly as water, native plants and then wildlife returned to five restored oxbow wetlands on her family farm in Iowa’s Carroll County.

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In 2021, the Fish and Wildlife Service and the Iowa Soybean Association excavated the U-shaped ponds on the property, former river meanders cut off from the main channel of Purgatory Creek and filled in with decades of soil erosion. 

The project cost tens of thousands of dollars, paid for by federal, state and private grants. It had all been for the silver minnow she now held.

The expansion of agriculture across the Midwest has blotted out many of the slow-moving, off-channel prairie streams that Topeka shiners favor. In their place, manually drained cropland and artificially straightened rivers have taken over.

In 1998, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service listed the Topeka shiner as a federally endangered species, threatened by “habitat destruction, degradation, modification, and fragmentation.” 

A Fish and Wildlife Service biologist holds a handful of endangered Topeka shiners. Credit: Kimberly Emerson/USFWS
A Fish and Wildlife Service biologist holds a handful of endangered Topeka shiners. Credit: Kimberly Emerson/USFWS

But concerted efforts to restore habitats where the endangered minnow might once again thrive have led to the restoration of hundreds of oxbow lakes across Iowa.

A network of federal, state, non-profit, and agricultural trade agencies has teamed up to excavate the former wetlands at little-to-no cost to landowners. Nearly two decades since beginning restoration efforts, they’ve learned that the abandoned river meanders don’t just create habitats for a recovering Topeka shiner population, they also effectively wash out the agricultural pollutants that plague Iowa’s waterways. 

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“It really is a success story,” said Karen Wilke, associate director of freshwater at The Nature Conservancy in Iowa. “Now we’re not just doing it for Topeka shiner, but we’re doing it for water quality as well.” 

Over centuries, meandering rivers and streams fold in on themselves like ribbon candy. Insistent currents erode their banks, redrawing riverbeds into ever-tighter sinusoidal waves. 

Chasing the path of least resistance, the current eventually cuts off U-shaped oxbow channels, leaving curving lakes where water flows more slowly, if at all. 

Oxbows are naturally occurring features in the Iowa landscape, but they became more abundant as agriculture brought drastic, manmade transformations to the state’s hydrology, explained Clay Pierce, a former scientist in the U.S. Geological Survey’s Iowa Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit at Iowa State University. He spent the last decade of his career studying Topeka shiner habitats and recovery efforts.

Before European settlement, wetlands covered approximately 11 percent of Iowa. Their still or slow-moving waters provided habitats for a variety of fish, reptiles and amphibians, including the diminutive, silvery Topeka Shiner. Today, over 95 percent of those wetlands have been drained and converted to farmable land. 

“It’s like one of the wonders of the world, how they changed the Iowa landscape,” said Pierce.

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Tile lines, underground drainage systems used to lower the water table in and around fields, transformed the state’s slow-moving wetlands into faster, fuller streams that intensified natural riverbank erosion and the creation of oxbow lakes, Pierce explained.

And as industrialized agriculture rerouted the state’s waters and accelerated oxbow formation, farming practices also exacerbated soil erosion, leading to the drying out of those oxbows.

Tillage, a soil management practice that reached peak popularity in the mid-20th century, left fertile topsoil exposed to the elements and readily carried off fields. Trillions of tons of U.S. topsoil are estimated to have been lost to erosion to date, settling in nearby waterways.

Erosion-mitigating farming strategies, including no-till or low-till agriculture and the planting of cover crops, have become more widely adopted, but many former oxbows in Iowa are still filled with sediment.

The former oxbows look like apostrophe-shaped scars in the earth, said Wilke, at The Nature Conservancy in Iowa. Her team has mapped out tens of thousands of oxbows across the state that are candidates for restoration. 

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In rainy years, these patches of land are prone to flooding, as though remembering a past life. Those on farmland are largely unusable—too concave and wet to support a decent yield.

As the slow-moving and standing waters favored by the Topeka shiner all but disappeared from Iowa, so did the fish.

Once common across Minnesota, South Dakota, Iowa, Nebraska, Missouri, and Kansas, documented populations of the fish were reduced to an estimated 20 percent of their original geographic range by the turn of the 21st century, said Pierce. 

Before the onset of industrial agriculture, shiners were found in streams that flowed out of large, slow-moving wetland areas. But those wetland complexes are gone, converted to millions of acres of cropland.

Despite their endangered status, the tiny minnows are shockingly rugged, able to withstand both the broiling summers and frigid winters of the Great Plains, said Pierce. They’re also better equipped to survive in the low-oxygen conditions of shallow waters where few other fish can thrive. That resilience bodes well for their survival in restored wetland habitats.

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“We can’t replace all the large, expansive wetland complexes that were here. It wouldn’t be economically or even politically possible to do that. But we can build more oxbows or encourage the ones that are there to function as habitats,” said Pierce.

Following the Topeka shiner’s federal endangerment listing, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) focused its efforts on preserving remnant populations in the North Raccoon River watershed, which runs through intensely cultivated cropland in western Iowa.

Though the Service initially attempted to engineer habitats within creeks, diverting currents with boulders and excavating deeper pools, they more often than not found shiners in oxbow lakes set back from the main channel and occupying private property. 

Oxbow lakes became, and remain, central to the Topeka shiner recovery plan.

In the early 2000s, USFWS worked with The Nature Conservancy of Iowa, which served as “boots on the ground,” finding funding sources, connecting with landowners, and overseeing the restorations, said Wilke. By 2008, the agencies had restored nearly twenty former oxbows in the Racoon River watershed.

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The impact of restorations on local wildlife populations was immediately evident, said Wilke. Topeka shiners began returning to the landscape, but so did countless other species.

Research conducted by The Nature Conservancy documented 57 fish species and 81 bird species using the newly restored oxbow habitats. “Turtles, mussels, frogs, river otters, beavers, you name it,” said Wilke. “I think all the species are hungry to have this habitat come back, hungry to have more water on the landscape.”

In 2011, the Iowa Soybean Association came on board, joining forces to restore more oxbows in the Boone River watershed in north-central Iowa. With its connections to farmers across Iowa, the trade association for soybean producers brought new momentum to the project, said Wilkes.

Unlike other states with vast swaths of public land, over 97 percent of Iowa’s land is privately owned. This means that the majority of former oxbows are on private land where restoration hinges on buy-in from the owners. The Iowa Soybean Association held powerful sway with those property owners.

The organizations collaborating with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service make up the Iowa Topeka Shiner Recovery Partnership and provide both technical support and a diverse array of private funding, in addition to the suite of state and federal grants used to cover restoration costs. 

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Though each acre of wetland costs approximately $20,000 to excavate, not a single cent comes from landowners, said Wilke.

For Kathy Law, that was a huge selling point in her decision to restore the five oxbows on her family farm. “We didn’t have to spend any money on it. And they took care of everything,” she said. “I think that’s the neat part of it. It shows we can do things that don’t cost us any money, and try to make a difference.”

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To date, more than 200 oxbows have been restored in the state of Iowa. Though far from a complete comeback, Topeka shiner populations seem to be on the rise.

In 2016 and 2017, Pierce and his students at Iowa State University collected the endangered minnows in 60 percent of the Iowa watersheds they’d historically inhabited, a significant rebound from only 32 percent in 2010 and 2011.

In 2019, Pierce published an article documenting the status of Topeka shiners in Iowa.

“I think the picture is brighter, and I firmly believe that oxbows are part of that story,” said Pierce. “It’s an ‘if you build it, they will come’ sort of thing.”

Sampling by the Nature Conservancy in Iowa has also turned up Topeka shiners in the majority of restored oxbows. 

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In fact, the minnows may not be classified as “endangered” for much longer. In the 5-year status review for the Topeka shiner, completed by USFWS in 2021, federal wildlife officials recommended that the fish be downlisted to “threatened.”

The surge in oxbow restorations hasn’t only served the Topeka shiner, participants in the recovery partnership are quick to point out.

Fish biologists from the La Crosse Fish and Wildlife Conservation Office survey for endangered Topeka shiners using a seine net in a recently restored oxbow in Iowa. Credit: Cristina Dahl/USFWSFish biologists from the La Crosse Fish and Wildlife Conservation Office survey for endangered Topeka shiners using a seine net in a recently restored oxbow in Iowa. Credit: Cristina Dahl/USFWS
Fish biologists from the La Crosse Fish and Wildlife Conservation Office survey for endangered Topeka shiners using a seine net in a recently restored oxbow in Iowa. Credit: Cristina Dahl/USFWS

The restored wetlands are also powerful water-quality tools, helping remove nitrogen runoff from tile lines that drain much of Iowa’s farmland before it can pollute major waterways.

“We’re able to intercept that tile into these wetlands before that water gets into the river, and we’re finding that it removes 62 percent, on average, of the farm chemicals, the nitrate, that comes in from that tile,” said Wilke.

Based on those findings, Iowa’s Nutrient Reduction Strategy added oxbow restorations as a nutrient-reducing practice in 2019. Introduced in 2014 to address the high volume of agricultural nutrients exiting Iowa’s waterways, the strategy promotes voluntary conservation measures for farmers looking to minimize nutrient loss from their fields and allocates state funds to those practices.

The Iowa Department of Agriculture and Land Stewardship now covers 100 percent of the costs of oxbow restorations that will receive water from a tile line.

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Unlike other nutrient-reduction practices the state funds, such as saturated buffers and bio-reactors, oxbows are both natural and long-lasting, said Wilke. “You do it, and it’s done. And then you just let nature take over and do its thing.”

The water quality benefits of oxbow restorations have brought a new group of landowners on board, said Grace Yi, habitat systems manager at Practical Farmers of Iowa, the most recent member of the Iowa Topeka Shiner Recovery Partnership.

“That’s what makes oxbows really great. They have a lot of different benefits and angles that you can approach farmers and landowners with,” said Yi.

Some of those benefits, “you can’t really put a price tag on,” like a more beautiful property or, as one farmer told Yi, time spent catching frogs with his grandson.

For Kathy Law, oxbow restorations have returned her family’s farm to a state she remembers from her early days there.

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Kathy and David Law stand next to a restored oxbow on their farm in Carroll County, Iowa. Credit: Courtesy of Kathy LawKathy and David Law stand next to a restored oxbow on their farm in Carroll County, Iowa. Credit: Courtesy of Kathy Law
Kathy and David Law stand next to a restored oxbow on their farm in Carroll County, Iowa. Credit: Courtesy of Kathy Law

Mallards now paddle through the still waters. Off the muddy banks, fat tadpoles whip their golf-ball-sized bodies beneath fallen leaves. 

If Law encountered the Topeka shiner during childhood fishing expeditions on the farm, she doesn’t remember it. But the oxbows stir at something in her memory.

“I remember there were little creeks, little streams going through here. We hadn’t had those for forever.” 

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Pat McAfee praises Audi Crooks, plays hype song for Iowa State star

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Pat McAfee praises Audi Crooks, plays hype song for Iowa State star


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Audi Crooks and Iowa State women’s basketball are officially sweeping the nation.

On Tuesday’s edition of “The Pat McAfee Show” on ESPN, the Cyclones’ star and NCAA women’s basketball scoring leader garnered significant praise from the former-NFL-punter-turned-media-personality.

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“I’m a huge fan of the way she operates. Huge fan,” McAfee said. “She just gets buckets. That’s literally all she does.

“Did I know anything about Iowa State’s women’s basketball team ever? Nope. But Audi Crooks highlights pop up on my (algorithm), and I say, ‘Boys, immediately, I’m making a song, we’re making a highlight,’ because people are trying to take shots at Audi right now.”

The song and video McAfee referenced was posted on his social media and played on his show before his monologue about Crooks. It features a stylish edit of Crooks points accompanied by what appears to be an AI-generated song with the chorus of, “You’re about to get cooked, by Audi Crooks.”

The “shots” at Crooks that McAfee mentioned refer to a TikTok posted by ESPN with the caption, “Baylor exposed Audi Crooks on defense,” which came in ISU’s first loss of the season on Jan. 4.

Audi Crooks stats

  • 2025-26 season (14 games): 29.1 points (NCAA leader), 6.7 rebounds, 71% shooting
  • 2024-25 season: 23.4 points, 7.5 rebounds, 60.5% shooting
  • 2023-24 season: 19.2 points, 7.8 rebounds, 57.7% shooting



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