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Trump could win Iowa but voters' second choice is absolutely critical

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Trump could win Iowa but voters' second choice is absolutely critical


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Politics rarely comes out as all the commentators expect and nowhere is this truer than in the Republican and Democratic primary processes that starts with the Iowa caucuses.

There should be no surprise, however, that former president Donald Trump will win the Iowa caucus – he has a commanding lead among the conservative electorate there and the process of a caucus benefits the activists who come out and organize for this multi-hour event of mass persuasion. He is scoring record leads in the Des Moines Register poll.

The big question is what is going to happen with the remaining Trump opponents and whether Iowa will shrink the field even further. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis started this primary season with all of the advantages of early momentum, a big electoral win in his home state, and great funding and yet seems to be limping to the finish line. 

If he finishes a strong second, he could revive his campaign; if he finishes third, I would expect him to drop out. He has both the most to win and the most to lose in this primary.

DESANTIS SHUTS DOWN RUMORS HE’LL DROP OUT OF 2024 RACE IF HE LOSES IN IOWA: ‘TOTALLY MADE UP’

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Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley has the most to win and little to lose here. She was never expected to do well in Iowa though she has been showing consistent momentum month after month. The polls place her in a close third place and that kind of finish would set her up for New Hampshire. If she finishes second instead, she would get a huge boost, especially if DeSantis drops out and either endorses her or refrains from siding with any of the candidates.

The big question is what is going to happen with the remaining Trump opponents and whether Iowa will shrink the field even further.

Remember that this is an arcane process but the rules have been changed this year so that it is more like a primary – people have to show up in the evening hours and possibly listen to some speeches but then they just vote by secret ballot – registered Republicans only, but people can switch their party registration if they want to become Republicans. 

As you may recall, last time the Iowa caucus became so advanced and computerized that no one could actually figure out the results and the whole thing was essentially called off. 

This time the Democrats have called off the Democratic caucus for real – it is part of their “threat to democracy” campaign which they seem to advance by eliminating actual democracy. 

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So, President Joe Biden can’t lose or win – or be challenged. There will be a Democratic caucus but only for party administrative matters, not presidential preferences. Instead, Democrats can request a form, get a mail in ballot and return it by March 5th, when it will be tallied. Seems that some want mail in votes to be easy for general elections but not for primaries, as these ballots are not mailed to all Democrats but only those who request them. 

HERE’S WHO KEY LAWMAKERS HAVE ALREADY ENDORSED FOR PRESIDENT AHEAD OF THE IOWA CAUCUSES

Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. left the Democratic party over the favoritism for the current president by the party establishment and Rep. Dean Philips is staying in, but the Biden team is busy eliminating him from as many caucuses and primaries as they can. 

Philips has been removed from the ballots in Florida and North Carolina even though he is not accused of leading an insurrection; they have put him on the Iowa mail-in caucus card along with Marianne Williamson – they just won’t get around to tabulating them until March. 

Vivek Ramaswamy and Chris Christie appear to have faded in the Iowa caucus and if the polls are right will face some difficult choices after the caucus is held. 

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Ramaswamy continues to predict a major upset but he seems to have been one of those firecracker candidates that burst upon the scene and then fade under scrutiny. 

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Christie never really caught on and has headlined that his campaign’s purpose is to defeat Donald Trump, which certainly does not seem to be happening in Iowa.

In general, the Iowa caucuses have not been great predictors for who wins on the Republican side. Mike Huckabee won in 2008; Ron Paul won in 2012; Ted Cruz won in 2016. 

Given this track record, it’s a little unclear why Republicans put so much effort into this caucus, but going first still sets a tone, and it has been especially important for who finishes second as that candidate has more often gone on to win.

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So far, Trump skipped all the GOP debates, but he knows the political power of a strong start and is hoping to dominate in Iowa and use this as proof that he is rip-roaring back despite his issues and legal peril. 

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He is showing up in Iowa and pressing the flesh now.  

It looks like he is likely to get his wish in Iowa but remember — even when we think we know what is going to happen, politics and especially primaries often confound us. 

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM MARK PENN

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Iowa City Regina baseball finds winning formula under new leadership

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Iowa City Regina baseball finds winning formula under new leadership


IOWA CITY, Iowa — Mark Roering returned to Iowa City Regina 30 years after serving as an assistant coach, and in just two seasons, he has transformed the Regals into one of Class 2A’s most dangerous teams.

“I was a senior in college. I just had finished playing baseball myself and was doing high school in the summers. Had one of those magical seasons here losing in the state finals,” Roering said. “I was just ready for something new.”

Prior to being hired at Iowa City Regina in 2024, Roering coached nine seasons at Dowling Catholic, where he helped the Maroons reach the state tournament six times. Regina was below .500 in three of the four seasons before his arrival. His first season at the helm, Regina went 22-6.

“I think the biggest difference is practice. Everybody is so much more locked in. Really that just comes from him. He gets on us everyday, he has to make the drive and hour and a half every day so we want to give that back to him for all the time and effort he’s put into us,” junior Trey Streb said.

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Streb also described Roering as a very emotional coach who cares deeply about the team and winning.

The Regals’ bats have become a significant threat. Regina ranks fifth in the state and second in Class 2A with a .379 batting average and has the fourth fewest strikeouts among state teams.

“It’s like nothing I’ve ever experienced and it’s been super competitive and it’s nice to be with people who want to win and will do whatever it takes to win,” senior Emmett Burke said.

The team already sits at 20 wins with eight regular season games remaining.

Roering said the transformation comes when players start believing they can win in any situation.

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“Winning is contagious just like losing is contagious,” Roering said. “Kids they start believing and it gets really dangerous you know that they can win no matter what situation they’re in.”

The turnaround has positioned the Regals to make a postseason run. With only one senior on the roster, the team could remain a threat next season.

“No matter what, we’re going to fight and we’re not going to roll over. We’re going to do what we need to do to win,” Burke said.

“We’re big competitors. We don’t accept defeat and I think that’s one of my favorite parts about this team,” Streb added.

Copyright 2026 KCRG. All rights reserved.

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Iowa City residents face higher water bills in July

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Iowa City residents face higher water bills in July


IOWA CITY, Iowa (KCRG) -Water and wastewater utility rates in Iowa City will increase starting July 1, following a city council decision on May 19.

The water utility rate will increase by 3%, while the wastewater rate will increase by 5%.

The increases are part of a funding model to help recover the costs of providing water and wastewater services to Iowa City residents.

The new rates will take effect in tandem with Iowa City’s 2027 fiscal year and apply to customers served by the Iowa City Water Division and the Iowa City Wastewater Division.

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The city said the rate adjustment supports its continued provision of safe and reliable water service.

To learn more about the city’s utilities, visit their website.

Copyright 2026 KCRG. All rights reserved.



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New Iowa program aims to remove barriers to family support

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New Iowa program aims to remove barriers to family support


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Thrive Iowa, a new initiative from the Iowa Department of Health and Human Services, has officially launched in a number of counties across the state with the goal of helping struggling Iowa families connect with local resources and build a network of support in their community.

On June 23, Warren County celebrated its own program site launch as one of eight initial sites. Other counties that are celebrating their own site launches are Cass, Lee, Black Hawk, Webster, Buena Vista, Fayette and Clayton. A site is officially launched once it has enrolled a minimum of 20 participants, Iowa HHS Director of Communications Danielle Sample said in a statement.

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The eight sites serve 11 counties in total, with services also available in Henry, Madison, and Van Buren counties, according to the Thrive Iowa website.

What is Thrive Iowa?

The initiative is focused on serving families, such as parents, caretakers, and pregnant individuals, according to the program’s website. To be eligible to receive help from the program, families must be living in Iowa, be a U.S. citizen or legal resident, and have an income at or below 200% of the federal poverty level.

The 2026 federal guidelines consider a family of four to be at the 200% threshold if they make $66,000 or less annually.

The program also outlines 13 core areas of well-being where it offers support. These include housing, recovery, employment, transportation, education, mental health, physical health, safety, dental, financial stability, food, child care and legal assistance.

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The overall goal of the program is to reduce barriers to accessing support for families by doing the work of finding the right organization to meet their needs for them. Instead of having to reach out to multiple sources, a family can visit the program’s HopeHub, a case management system, to create a free account and receive a referral. Once referred, the individual is connected with a Thrive Navigator who will create a personalized plan and build local connections to assist the family.

Thrive Iowa is modeled after Restore Hope, an Arkansas-based nonprofit that began in 2015 to reduce the number of individuals in incarceration and the foster care system through community-based approaches. In addition to Iowa, this model is also used in Tennessee and Canada, according to the organization’s website.

The Iowa program plans to expand to other counties in the near future, Sample said. In July, Iowa HHS will begin onboarding more participating organizations and counties, expanding the program to serve 22 counties.

Warren County launch pledges to take families from crisis to careers

At the Warren County launch, the county’s initiative coordinator, Sarah Downard, was joined by Iowa State Rep. Brooke Boden, Ben Segebart, senior pastor at Indianola Freedom Fellowship Church, Sue Wilson, executive director of WeLIFT Job Search Center in Indianola, and Paul Chapman, executive director of Restore Hope.

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Downard said the Warren County site is currently serving over 20 families.

To a room of around 75 community members and local organizations at The Hive event venue in Indianola, the five speakers emphasized the importance of the mission behind Thrive Iowa, which is collective impact and helping build strong communities through supporting the families that live there.

The group also invited the whole room to sign the site’s declaration of participation in the program, which stated the goals of the program and a pledge to work together to help take families from crisis to career.

“When families are struggling, we feel the impact everywhere,” Boden said. “We see this in our schools, our health care systems, our workplace, and our communities.”

Isabelle Foland is a communities reporter for the Register. Reach her at ifoland@registermedia.com.

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