Iowa
Trump could win Iowa but voters' second choice is absolutely critical
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Politics rarely comes out as all the commentators expect and nowhere is this truer than in the Republican and Democratic primary processes that starts with the Iowa caucuses.
There should be no surprise, however, that former president Donald Trump will win the Iowa caucus – he has a commanding lead among the conservative electorate there and the process of a caucus benefits the activists who come out and organize for this multi-hour event of mass persuasion. He is scoring record leads in the Des Moines Register poll.
The big question is what is going to happen with the remaining Trump opponents and whether Iowa will shrink the field even further. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis started this primary season with all of the advantages of early momentum, a big electoral win in his home state, and great funding and yet seems to be limping to the finish line.
If he finishes a strong second, he could revive his campaign; if he finishes third, I would expect him to drop out. He has both the most to win and the most to lose in this primary.
DESANTIS SHUTS DOWN RUMORS HE’LL DROP OUT OF 2024 RACE IF HE LOSES IN IOWA: ‘TOTALLY MADE UP’
Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley has the most to win and little to lose here. She was never expected to do well in Iowa though she has been showing consistent momentum month after month. The polls place her in a close third place and that kind of finish would set her up for New Hampshire. If she finishes second instead, she would get a huge boost, especially if DeSantis drops out and either endorses her or refrains from siding with any of the candidates.
The big question is what is going to happen with the remaining Trump opponents and whether Iowa will shrink the field even further.
Remember that this is an arcane process but the rules have been changed this year so that it is more like a primary – people have to show up in the evening hours and possibly listen to some speeches but then they just vote by secret ballot – registered Republicans only, but people can switch their party registration if they want to become Republicans.
As you may recall, last time the Iowa caucus became so advanced and computerized that no one could actually figure out the results and the whole thing was essentially called off.
This time the Democrats have called off the Democratic caucus for real – it is part of their “threat to democracy” campaign which they seem to advance by eliminating actual democracy.
So, President Joe Biden can’t lose or win – or be challenged. There will be a Democratic caucus but only for party administrative matters, not presidential preferences. Instead, Democrats can request a form, get a mail in ballot and return it by March 5th, when it will be tallied. Seems that some want mail in votes to be easy for general elections but not for primaries, as these ballots are not mailed to all Democrats but only those who request them.
HERE’S WHO KEY LAWMAKERS HAVE ALREADY ENDORSED FOR PRESIDENT AHEAD OF THE IOWA CAUCUSES
Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. left the Democratic party over the favoritism for the current president by the party establishment and Rep. Dean Philips is staying in, but the Biden team is busy eliminating him from as many caucuses and primaries as they can.
Philips has been removed from the ballots in Florida and North Carolina even though he is not accused of leading an insurrection; they have put him on the Iowa mail-in caucus card along with Marianne Williamson – they just won’t get around to tabulating them until March.
Vivek Ramaswamy and Chris Christie appear to have faded in the Iowa caucus and if the polls are right will face some difficult choices after the caucus is held.
Ramaswamy continues to predict a major upset but he seems to have been one of those firecracker candidates that burst upon the scene and then fade under scrutiny.
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Christie never really caught on and has headlined that his campaign’s purpose is to defeat Donald Trump, which certainly does not seem to be happening in Iowa.
In general, the Iowa caucuses have not been great predictors for who wins on the Republican side. Mike Huckabee won in 2008; Ron Paul won in 2012; Ted Cruz won in 2016.
Given this track record, it’s a little unclear why Republicans put so much effort into this caucus, but going first still sets a tone, and it has been especially important for who finishes second as that candidate has more often gone on to win.
So far, Trump skipped all the GOP debates, but he knows the political power of a strong start and is hoping to dominate in Iowa and use this as proof that he is rip-roaring back despite his issues and legal peril.
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He is showing up in Iowa and pressing the flesh now.
It looks like he is likely to get his wish in Iowa but remember — even when we think we know what is going to happen, politics and especially primaries often confound us.
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Iowa
The ‘What Ifs’ of 2025-26 for Iowa State athletics | Hines
Iowa State football coach Jimmy Rogers assesses the Cyclones’ spring
Iowa State football coach Jimmy Rogers assesses the Cyclones’ spring
Spring commencement arrives at Iowa State this weekend, with a whole new generation of Cyclones set to get their diplomas and move on to the next things in their lives.
The options and choices will set their path for, potentially, the years and decades ahead.
Which got me thinking about the choices and circumstances of this school year that came for Iowa State athletics. There were no shortages of inflection points at which, it seems, programs and an entire athletics department pivoted to new directions.
Let’s explore.
What if Iowa State had hired Taylor Mouser as head football coach?
This seems to be the most discussed “Sliding Doors” moment for Iowa State football fans regarding head coach Matt Campbell’s departure to Penn State. And with good reason. It’s the most obvious, could have had the most immediate impact on the program and would have been largely seen as a continuation of the most successful run in school history.
Would promoting the Iowa State offensive coordinator, though, have been the right move?
If you assume a best-case scenario in which some of the star Cyclone players on offense – think Rocco Becht, Ben Brahmer, Carson Hansen, etc. – stay at Iowa State and a bulk of the coaching staff does as well, there are still likely defections that weaken the roster. Nothing like we saw back in December, but, still, there would be holes – and Campbell’s shoes – to fill by a first-time head coach taking over for a legend.
The calculation, as I see it, has to be – does the Year 1 continuity and relative stability gained by hiring Mouser provide for better long-term results than hiring Jimmy Rogers, who has the benefit of head-coaching experience?
It certainly would have made the fan base feel better back in December, but would it have positioned Iowa State to have better results in 2027 and beyond?
The roster almost certainly would have been “better” in 2026 if Iowa State retained Mouser, but would that have created a more solid foundation for the future or just delayed decay?
This “What If” becomes a lot less intricate and interesting if Rogers just wins a ton this fall and going forward.
What if Penn State had been able to hire Kalani Sitake as its football coach?
I think this is the most interesting question on the list.
By reports, Penn State was on the verge of hiring Sitake from BYU when the Cougars’ boosters – led by the Crumbl Cookie fortune – banded together to put together a financial package to keep Sitake in Provo.
What if they hadn’t, though?
Sitake goes to Penn State, and Dec. 5, 2025, is an uneventful day in Iowa State history rather than one of its most feverish.
But … what happens a few weeks later when Sherrone Moore is fired at Michigan?
Rather than plucking 66-year-old Kyle Whittingham from Utah/forced retirement, do the Wolverines try to make a Michigan Man out of an Ohioan? Does Campbell inherit the seat of Bo Schembechler?
And, for the sake of this thought exercise, if Campbell did move to Ann Arbor, does the timing of that decision change athletics director Jamie Pollard’s options and calculus about Iowa State’s opening? Is Jimmy Rogers still available? Or would he have taken a different opening or opted not to leave Pullman at that later date? Is Mouser the answer in this scenario?
Or is the Buckeye State distaste for the state Up North too much and Campbell returns for Year 11 at Iowa State?
Addy Brown on what went wrong in Iowa State’s loss to Syracuse
Iowa State’s Addy Brown talks about her team’s struggles in a loss to Syracuse in the NCAA Tournament.
What if Addy Brown doesn’t get hurt?
Iowa State women’s basketball was 14-0 on Jan. 4 when it played Baylor in Waco, and the season felt sure to realize the potential that was clear before it started with one of coach Bill Fennelly’s best rosters.
The Cyclones, though, returned home with their first loss and with Addy Brown sidelined with a back injury.
Four more losses in a row followed, and when Brown returned to the floor after six weeks, the Cyclones’ season was floundering.
They salvaged an NCAA Tournament bid, but a first-round exit gave way to a roster collapse with nine players – including Brown and superstar Audi Crooks – leaving via the transfer portal, putting Fennelly’s tenure and future under fire.
If Brown doesn’t get hurt – or just isn’t out as long – does that change the trajectory of the season? The offseason? And what the eventual end of Fennelly’s Iowa State career looks like?
What if Joshua Jefferson doesn’t roll his ankle?
The most recent “What If” I think is also the most straightforward.
If Jefferson’s ankle doesn’t roll in the early minutes of Iowa State’s first-round NCAA Tournament blowout win over Tennessee State, I think the Cyclones get a long second weekend in Chicago, but the Final Four drought probably remains intact.
Jefferson’s rebounding and offensive impact are, I think, enough to give the Cyclones the edge against Tennessee, but Michigan, the Cyclones’ would-be Elite Eight opponent, was just a juggernaut.
I’m not sure even a full-strength Iowa State team would have had more than a puncher’s chance. The Wolverines were just one of the best college basketball teams we’ve seen over the last few decades.
Iowa State columnist Travis Hines has covered the Cyclones for the Des Moines Register and Ames Tribune since 2012. Contact him at thines@amestrib.com or (515) 284-8000. Follow him on X at @TravisHines21.
Iowa
Top Iowa High School Football Prospect Makes His Decision
One of the top Iowa high school football prospects in the state has made his college decision official.
Iowa City Regina High School senior-to-be Tate Wallace has announced he has verbally committed to the University of Minnesota in the Big Ten Conference. Wallace picked the Golden Gophers and head coach PJ Fleck over a finalists Notre Dame, Nebraska, Arizona, Arizona State and Wisconsin.
Wallace narrowed down his list of schools to six at the end of April before making his final decision.
Iowa City Regina Football Standout Tate Wallace Ranked As No. 2 Overall Prospect In Iowa High School Football
The 6-foot-2, 226-pound linebacker is considered the No. 2 overall prospect in the state of Iowa for high school football, and is the No. 21 linebacker in the Class of 2027, according to 247Sports.
In the 247Sports Composite rankings, Wallace is No. 2 in Iowa high school football, No. 29 at linebacker and No. 359 for the Class of 2027.
Along With Minnesota, Tate Wallace Currently Holds Offers From Schools Such As Arizona, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Notre Dame, Tennessee, Iowa State
Wallace currently holds 16 total offers including from the previously mentioned Minnesota, Notre Dame, Nebraska, Arizona, Arizona State, Wisconsin, Iowa State, Kansas State, Purdue, Tennessee, West Virginia, Eastern Michigan, Miami (Ohio), Toledo, UNLV, North Dakota and North Dakota State.
As a junior, Wallace registered almost 50 tackles on defense, with 29 of them being counted as solo stops. He had 18 tackles for loss, 8.5 quarterback sacks and forced two fumbles, as Iowa City Regina advanced to the state championship game of the Iowa High School Athletic Association State Football Championships.
Future Minnesota Golden Gopher Has Been Key Two-Way Starter For Regals
Wallace also hauled in 40 passes for 611 yards with 10 receiving touchdowns on offense for the Regals. As a two-way player for Iowa City Regina during his sophomore season, Wallace had 27.5 tackles, including 16 solo stops, four tackles for loss and a quarterback sack, adding 51 receptions for 752 yards and eight touchdowns.
Back in March, Wallace announced seven spring visits to Notre Dame, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Arizona, Kansas State and Arizona State. He also visited Tennessee this past fall, taking in an SEC contest with the Volunteers.
Along with his success on the football field, Wallace helped lead the Regals to the Iowa High School Athletic Association Boys State Basketball Tournament this past winter. He earned High School on SI all-state honors in the process.
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