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Trump could win Iowa but voters' second choice is absolutely critical

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Trump could win Iowa but voters' second choice is absolutely critical


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Politics rarely comes out as all the commentators expect and nowhere is this truer than in the Republican and Democratic primary processes that starts with the Iowa caucuses.

There should be no surprise, however, that former president Donald Trump will win the Iowa caucus – he has a commanding lead among the conservative electorate there and the process of a caucus benefits the activists who come out and organize for this multi-hour event of mass persuasion. He is scoring record leads in the Des Moines Register poll.

The big question is what is going to happen with the remaining Trump opponents and whether Iowa will shrink the field even further. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis started this primary season with all of the advantages of early momentum, a big electoral win in his home state, and great funding and yet seems to be limping to the finish line. 

If he finishes a strong second, he could revive his campaign; if he finishes third, I would expect him to drop out. He has both the most to win and the most to lose in this primary.

DESANTIS SHUTS DOWN RUMORS HE’LL DROP OUT OF 2024 RACE IF HE LOSES IN IOWA: ‘TOTALLY MADE UP’

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Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley has the most to win and little to lose here. She was never expected to do well in Iowa though she has been showing consistent momentum month after month. The polls place her in a close third place and that kind of finish would set her up for New Hampshire. If she finishes second instead, she would get a huge boost, especially if DeSantis drops out and either endorses her or refrains from siding with any of the candidates.

The big question is what is going to happen with the remaining Trump opponents and whether Iowa will shrink the field even further.

Remember that this is an arcane process but the rules have been changed this year so that it is more like a primary – people have to show up in the evening hours and possibly listen to some speeches but then they just vote by secret ballot – registered Republicans only, but people can switch their party registration if they want to become Republicans. 

As you may recall, last time the Iowa caucus became so advanced and computerized that no one could actually figure out the results and the whole thing was essentially called off. 

This time the Democrats have called off the Democratic caucus for real – it is part of their “threat to democracy” campaign which they seem to advance by eliminating actual democracy. 

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So, President Joe Biden can’t lose or win – or be challenged. There will be a Democratic caucus but only for party administrative matters, not presidential preferences. Instead, Democrats can request a form, get a mail in ballot and return it by March 5th, when it will be tallied. Seems that some want mail in votes to be easy for general elections but not for primaries, as these ballots are not mailed to all Democrats but only those who request them. 

HERE’S WHO KEY LAWMAKERS HAVE ALREADY ENDORSED FOR PRESIDENT AHEAD OF THE IOWA CAUCUSES

Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. left the Democratic party over the favoritism for the current president by the party establishment and Rep. Dean Philips is staying in, but the Biden team is busy eliminating him from as many caucuses and primaries as they can. 

Philips has been removed from the ballots in Florida and North Carolina even though he is not accused of leading an insurrection; they have put him on the Iowa mail-in caucus card along with Marianne Williamson – they just won’t get around to tabulating them until March. 

Vivek Ramaswamy and Chris Christie appear to have faded in the Iowa caucus and if the polls are right will face some difficult choices after the caucus is held. 

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Ramaswamy continues to predict a major upset but he seems to have been one of those firecracker candidates that burst upon the scene and then fade under scrutiny. 

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Christie never really caught on and has headlined that his campaign’s purpose is to defeat Donald Trump, which certainly does not seem to be happening in Iowa.

In general, the Iowa caucuses have not been great predictors for who wins on the Republican side. Mike Huckabee won in 2008; Ron Paul won in 2012; Ted Cruz won in 2016. 

Given this track record, it’s a little unclear why Republicans put so much effort into this caucus, but going first still sets a tone, and it has been especially important for who finishes second as that candidate has more often gone on to win.

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So far, Trump skipped all the GOP debates, but he knows the political power of a strong start and is hoping to dominate in Iowa and use this as proof that he is rip-roaring back despite his issues and legal peril. 

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He is showing up in Iowa and pressing the flesh now.  

It looks like he is likely to get his wish in Iowa but remember — even when we think we know what is going to happen, politics and especially primaries often confound us. 

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Zach Lahn projected to win Iowa GOP governor primary, upsetting Trump’s pick in a state Democrats hope to flip

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Zach Lahn projected to win Iowa GOP governor primary, upsetting Trump’s pick in a state Democrats hope to flip


Zach Lahn will win the Republican primary for Iowa governor, CBS News projects, overcoming a Trump-backed congressman and setting up a November contest against Democrat Rob Sand that could be one of this year’s most competitive gubernatorial races.

Lahn — a farmer and businessman who has touted his ties to the “Make America Healthy Again” movement — prevailed over a crowded GOP field on Tuesday. Sand, who serves as state auditor, ran for the Democratic nomination unopposed.

His victory bucks the recent winning streak of Trump-backed candidates and marks an upset over Rep. Randy Feenstra, who didn’t attend any primary debates and was viewed by many observers as a frontrunner. President Trump endorsed Feenstra last week, calling him “MAGA all the way,” and several top Iowa GOP figures backed him. 

Feenstra conceded late Tuesday night, saying in a speech surrounded by his family that the outcome “wasn’t what I wanted.” 

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Describing himself as a sixth-generation Iowan, Lahn owns a family farm and runs the agriculture, real estate and technology investment firm Homeplace Ventures. He previously worked for the conservative group Americans for Prosperity. He’s running on a populist-inflected platform that he branded “Iowa First” and has said he wants to boost local ownership of farmland, stem the flow of younger Iowans out of the state and address Iowa’s high cancer rate.

“I fear every day we are losing the Iowa we love,” Lahn said in his victory speech Tuesday, castigating out-of-state investors that he says “treat Iowa land like it’s a commodity instead of our inheritance.”

Lahn was endorsed last year by MAHA Action, a group founded by allies of Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and he picked up support from the late Charlie Kirk’s Turning Point Action last week. He was also endorsed by former Rep. Steve King, who was known for incendiary comments about race before Feenstra ousted him in a 2020 primary.

Three other candidates also ran: former Iowa Department of Administrative Services Director Adam Steen, state Rep. Eddie Andrews and former state Rep. Brad Sherman.

Lahn will now face Sand, a two-term state auditor who defeated a GOP incumbent in 2018 after working in the state attorney general’s office.

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Sand has focused his campaign on government accountability and faulted Republicans for the state’s economic issues, while pitching universal pre-K and criticizing a school voucher program introduced by GOP officials. He has also sought to cultivate a moderate image on social issues, as Republicans try to cast him as a liberal in centrist’s clothing.

In a campaign video late Tuesday, Sand said Republican voters are “welcome in this campaign,” adding that the state’s political system is “broken” and “all you would get with Zach Lahn it is more of the same.”

Once considered a swing state, Iowa has trended sharply red in recent years as Democrats increasingly struggle on rural Midwestern terrain. Mr. Trump won the state three times in a row, including by a 13-point margin in 2024, and GOP Gov. Kim Reynolds won reelection by 18 points four years ago. Iowa hasn’t elected a Democratic governor in two decades, and Sand is the only statewide elected Democrat, after he won reelection by fewer than 3,000 votes in 2022.

But Democrats are hopeful that a challenging political environment for Republicans, both nationally and in Iowa, could make them more competitive in the midwestern state. The Cook Political Report has rated the Iowa gubernatorial race a tossup, one of five states with that distinction this year, and the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics says the race leans red.

Reynolds — who has led the state since 2017 — has one of the lowest approval ratings of any governor nationwide. Iowa farmers also struggled last year after the trade war with China caused Beijing to cut American soybean imports, pushing down prices of one of Iowa’s most widely grown crops, and the war with Iran has caused a run-up in fuel and fertilizer prices.

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Reynolds declined to run for reelection this year, setting up Iowa’s first gubernatorial election without an incumbent in the race since 2006.

Lahn lent his campaign $2 million last year, but is heading into the general election at a fundraising disadvantage. His campaign had just over $700,000 on hand as of mid-May, compared to nearly $18.3 million for the Sand campaign. Sand’s wife runs a sizable food and health products company founded by her family called the Lauridsen Group, and the Democrat’s campaign coffers have been bolstered by millions in contributions from his in-laws.

Sand raised about $9.7 million between the start of the year and mid-May, just over $3 million of which came from members of his wife’s family. Lahn raised just under $1 million.

Beyond the governor’s race, Iowa also has an open Senate contest after Ernst declined to seek reelection, drawing interest from Democrats, though Republicans likely have a sizable edge. Democrats are also heavily targeting two of Iowa’s four House seats, including the 1st District, where incumbent GOP Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks won by fewer than 1,000 votes in 2024.

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Elections live updates: Key races to watch in California, Iowa, Montana and New Jersey primaries

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Elections live updates: Key races to watch in California, Iowa, Montana and New Jersey primaries


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In California, competition is fierce for the gubernatorial and Los Angeles mayoral nominations. Iowa, Montana and New Jersey have open U.S. Senate seats. In New Jersey, a silent congressman could lose his House seat.

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Iowa joins wave of states forcing porn sites to verify users’ ages

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Iowa joins wave of states forcing porn sites to verify users’ ages



Beginning July 1, Iowans must verify they are adults to access porn websites.

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Iowa will require porn websites to verify users are at least 18 under a new law signed by Gov. Kim Reynolds. 

The Hawkeye State joins at least 25 other states, including Kansas and Nebraska, in requiring age verification for adult content in an effort to prevent minors from accessing it. 

House File 864 is modeled after a Texas age verification law the U.S. Supreme Court upheld in a 6-3 decision in June. The measure will apply to websites or apps if at least one-third of their content is pornographic. 

Beginning July 1, the law will require the websites to verify a user’s age using government-issued identification, financial documents or other documents that are “reliable proxies for age.” Age verification may also be performed by third parties or through any “commercially reasonable and reliable method.” 

The law states websites and third parties “shall not retain, sell, lease or otherwise disseminate any identifying information of an individual subject to reasonable age verification unless retention or dissemination of the identifying information is required by law or a court order.” 

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It also requires third parties and websites to use “reasonable methods given the person’s scope of business to secure all data collected and transmitted” during the age verification process.  

Under the new law, Iowa’s attorney general can sue companies in violation of the law. Violators could face fines up to $1,000 for each time an individual accesses a site in violation of the law. Civil penalties for providers are capped at $10,000 per day.

Iowa Senate lawmakers unanimously approved the measure while the House advanced it 82-2.

Rapid Response Politics Reporter Maya Marchel Hoff can be reached at mmarchelHoff@usatodayco.com. You can find her on X (formerly Twitter) at @mmarchelhoff.

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