Former President Donald Trump has branded top Iowa pollster Ann Selzer a “Trump-hater”, and described her weekend poll, which put Vice President Kamala Harris ahead of him by 3 points, as “suppression”.

The Republican nominee said that the poll, which showed Harris leading in the Hawkeye state despite Trump winning it last election, should be “illegal”, claiming it was designed to suppress the Republican vote on Election Day.

The poll showed Harris leading Trump by 3 percent in Iowa, giving the Democrat some much-needed momentum in the Midwest as the election comes to a close. The poll, conducted between October 28-31, found that 47 percent of likely voters would choose the vice president if the election were held on the day they were surveyed, while 44 percent of voters said they would choose Trump.

Several of Selzer’s polls have been accurate historically, with correct predictions in the 2008, 2012, and 2016 elections.

However, that didn’t stop Donald Trump from rejecting the numbers, saying on Truth Social over the weekend that the poll was run by “a Trump hater who called it totally wrong the last time.” In 2020, Selzer predicted Trump would win Iowa with 48 percent to President Joe Biden’s 41 percent with the final result turning out at 53.1 percent to 44.9 percent.

At a campaign rally in Pennsylvania on Sunday, Trump referenced the poll in his speech, saying: “It’s called suppression. They suppress, and it actually should be illegal.”

The Trump campaign doubled down on these statements, releasing a memo that read: “On Saturday, top Democrats appear to have received early access to an absurd outlier poll of Iowa conducted by The Des Moines Register.

“Not to be outdone, The New York Times arrived right on cue with another set of polling data being used to drive a voter suppression narrative against President Trump’s supporters.

“Some in the media are choosing to amplify a mad dash to dampen and diminish voter enthusiasm. It has not worked. Our voters are like President Trump: they fight.”

In a statement responding to backlash over the surprising numbers, which indicates a potential Harris landslide, Selzer told Newsweek: “These are the kinds of comments seen for virtually any poll, including mine. The Des Moines Register includes a methodology statement with each story they publish.

“It’s the same methodology used to show Trump winning Iowa in the final polls in 2016 and 2020. It would not be in my best interest, or that of my clients—The Des Moines Register and Mediacom—to conjure fake numbers.”

Newsweek contacted The Des Moines Register for a response to the comments via email.

Other polling released over the weekend showed conflicting news, with Harris receiving a boost in the Midwest in the final Sienna College/New York Times poll, which put her ahead in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and North Carolina, and Trump getting solid numbers in the final Morning Consult poll, which put him in the lead for Georgia and Arizona.

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A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole.

The early action Monday has been in currencies as the dollar took a knock from a new poll in Iowa showing Democratic presidential contender Kamala Harris leading Republican Donald Trump. That was enough to see the dollar down 0.9% on the yen and 0.6% on the euro, while the trade-sensitive Aussie bounced 0.8%.

Analysts tend to assume Trump’s policies on immigration, tariffs and tax cuts would put a lot more upward pressure on the U.S. dollar and yields, than a Harris victory.

Of particular note was the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll which surprised everyone by showing Harris up 3 points on Trump in the state, a major shift from a few weeks ago. This poll has a very good track record and is considered a bellwether for votes across the swing states.

“Since last week, Harris is seeing a boost in the polls, highlighted by the Selzer Poll of Iowa where some are using as a proxy for performance among the Blue Wall battleground states (Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin),” JPMorgan said in a note.

Betting site PredictIT showed Harris at 53 cents to Trump on 51 cents – what investors are willing to wager for a chance to win $1 – compared to 42 cents to 61 cents just a week ago.

The average of opinion polls is still too close to call and it’s quite possible the result of the vote may not be known on Wednesday. In 2020, for instance, Pennsylvania was not called until the Saturday after the election. There could also be court challenges to results which might drag on for weeks.

Markets assume the Federal Reserve will go ahead and cut rates on Thursday no matter the outcome, with futures implying a 98% chance of 25 basis points. They are also pricing an 80% probability of another quarter point in December, though that could easily change depending on who becomes president-elect.

The Bank of England is also expected to cut by a quarter point on Thursday, while the Riksbank is seen easing by 50 basis points. Norges Bank and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) are seen on hold this week.

The other market mover on Monday was oil, which bounced 1.4% or so after OPEC+ said on Sunday it would delay a planned December output hike by one month. This was the second time it has extended a 2.2 million bpd cut and only goes to show how worried they are about global demand.

Asia in particular has been weak with crude imports in the first 10 months of the year down 200,000 bpd from the same period in 2023, according to LSEG data.

Key developments that could influence markets on Monday:

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The Iowa pollster who surprised pundits and politicians alike over the weekend with a poll showing Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump in the state said the poll was indicative of a modern reality: abortion has rallied Democrats.

J. Ann Selzer, whose pre-election polls have long predicted the eventual result in Iowa, said on MSNBC‘s The Weekend that she didn’t have “as much data as we might like about why this is happening,” referring to the Des Moines Register poll that showed Harris leading Trump by 3 percentage points. However, she said, the data was consistent with the reporting the paper’s political reporters pursued throughout the election.

“Our consensus from the reporters who work this beat is that the abortion ban went into effect this past summer,” Selzer said, according to the Daily Mail. “I think it has gotten people interested in voting.”

Selzer, who has been described as the “best pollster in politics,” acknowledged that voters could swing toward Trump on Election Day, but she had personally seen less Trump signs than in 2020.

The poll was widely derided by Republicans, chief among them Trump. “All polls, except for one heavily skewed toward the Democrats by a Trump hater who called it totally wrong the last time, have me up, BY A LOT,” Trump posted on Truth Social. “I LOVE THE FARMERS, AND THEY LOVE ME.”

An Emerson College poll did show Trump up by 10 points in Iowa, and a New York Times/Siena poll showed the two deadlocked across various swing states, signifying a historically close election—with a potential for a number of surprises.