125 pounds: No. 7 Drake Ayala vs. No. 2 Braeden Davis

The Penn State vs. Iowa duals have a solid history of starting at 125 pounds, and if this dual does indeed start with the lightweights, fireworks will begin early. Penn State true freshman Braeden Davis has been one of the breakout stars of the year at 125 pounds, holding an undefeated 14-0 record that pushed him into the No. 2 spot in the country. 

Two weeks ago, Davis took down Michigan’s No. 6 Michael DeAugustino 5-1, and this win is even more relevant and notable ahead of the Iowa match given that Iowa’s No. 7 Drake Ayala just dropped to DeAugustino in sudden victory in Iowa’s 24-11 loss to Michigan. Transitive properties don’t always work in wrestling, and they certainly haven’t been predictive at 125 pounds this year, but Davis’ win is significant as he preps for the sophomore Hawkeye. 

133 pounds: No. 20 Cullan Schriever vs. No. 6 Aaron Nagao

Unlike Davis, Penn State All-American Aaron Nagao will not come into his bout against Iowa undefeated after dropping to Ryan Crookham earlier this semester and more recently taking losses to Dylan Ragusin and Nic Bouzakis, but Nagao is still the favorite at 133 pounds in this matchup. He’s battle-tested and tough, and he’ll be looking for bonus against whoever Iowa sends on the mat. 

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The Hawks currently have Cullan Schriever listed in the probables, and he’s been the guy for Iowa against Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern and Michigan. Schriever’s only two losses so far this season have come against Ragusin and Nebraska’s Jacob Van Dee, though he did finish behind teammate Brody Teske at the Solider Salute. Teske, meanwhile, bumped up to 141 pounds for the Illinois and Northwestern duals but is not listed in the probables now the Real Woods is back. Iowa’s depth will be a factor later in the lineup as well, as the Hawks have talented backup options at a number of weights, but stopping the Nittany Lions will still be unlikely, even with multiple national qualifier-caliber guys at several weights. 

141 pounds: No. 2 Real Woods vs. No. 1 Beau Bartlett

For the second week in a row, the biggest match for the Nittany Lions will be at 141 pounds. Last weekend, Penn State’s No. 2 Beau Bartlett topped Ohio State’s No. 3 Jesse Mendez in a high-profile top-five matchup in sudden victory, and now Bartlett will once again have a notable test in No. 2 Real Woods. Bartlett, however, will come into this meeting with all the momentum. He slid into the No. 1 spot nationally after Woods lost by major to Michigan’s Sergio Lemley last weekend, and now Bartlett will have the chance to defend that spot in enemy territory. 

A defensive and positionally-sound wrestler, Bartlett competes smart. Woods’ style is slightly different, with the Hawkeye typically showcasing a more aggressive and fast-paced approach, though that pace has slowed recently with Woods wrestling more strategic matches. Carver-Hawkeye is where Woods would like to reclaim his top spot, so look for him to come off the whistle hard and work for a turn. His path to victory will likely require back points. 

149 pounds: No. 12 Caleb Rathjen vs. No. 10 Tyler Kasak

Many of these Penn State vs. Iowa matches feature familiar storylines: a top-ranked wrestler vs. an All-American or a breakout transfer vs. a veteran. The athletes are known, the expectations are more universal. None of those things are present at 149 pounds. 

Penn State will come into this match with the advantage, as the Nittany Lions are expected to field No. 10 Tyler Kasak, a true freshman who has put together a stellar season after stepping in for All-American Shayne Van Ness after Van Ness’ injury. Kasak’s only loss this year came against teammate Beau Bartlett at 141 pounds, and he’s fresh off a win against All-American Dylan D’Emilio of Ohio State, looking ready to roll. 

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Iowa’s Caleb Rathjen, a third-year Hawkeye but first-year starter, has been solid too and is improving as the season progresses. He’s 9-3 on the year with his best wins coming against teammate Victor Voinovich at the Soldier Salute to earn the starting spot. This will be a match between two first-year starters, meaning anything could happen, but the result of this match will have key Big Ten tournament seeding implications.

157 pounds: No. 5 Jared Franek vs. No. 1 Levi Haines

This is a winnable match for Iowa’s Jared Franek, but he’s going to need to wrestle sharp, even sharper than he did against Michigan’s Will Lewan. If Iowa wants to stay in this weight, the Hawks are going to need some magic from Franek. 

Levi Haines, a 2023 NCAA finalist, is 11-0 on the year with a 63+% bonus rate. Franek, meanwhile, is 13-2 with his only losses coming against Michigan’s Lewan and Minnesota’s Michael Blockhus, both of which were decided by one point.

For Franek to stay in this battle, he’s going to need to slow down Haines and keep the match defensive. 

165 pounds: No. 6 Mikey Caliendo vs. No. 7 Mitchell Mesenbrink

There’s a chance Penn State shuts out the Hawkeyes, but, much like fellow North Dakota State All-American transfer Jared Franek, Mikey Caliendo has the potential to help stop that result. He’ll even come into this bout with the rankings advantage, though Penn State’s Mitchell Mesenbrink is likely still considered the favorite in this 165-pound bout. Mesenbrink, a California Baptist transfer, has quickly become a Penn State fan favorite this year as he continues to work his way up the rankings with statement wins. The middleweight redshirt freshman is 15-0 on the year with 80% bonus, but his recent wins over All-American Cameron Amine, Caleb Fish and Bryce Hepner are really what have shown Mesenbrink’s potential as a title contender. 

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Caliendo is certainly someone Iowa expects to end up on the podium, so getting an opportunity to measure up against Mesenbrink is a good thing, regardless of the result. 

174 pounds: No. 7 Patrick Kennedy vs. No. 1 Carter Starocci

The Nittany Lions are elite from top to bottom, but it’s the upperweights where Penn State really shines. Three of the four last Penn State wrestlers in the lineup are ranked No. 1 in the country, so the Hawks are going to need to either win some of the lightweight matches or play a little gamesmanship with the lineup to stay competitive here in the back half of the dual. 

Iowa has No. 7 Patrick Kennedy listed as the probable starter for the Hawks at 174 pounds, and Kennedy has shown he can compete. He’s taken just three losses this year, one to teammate Mikey Caliendo down at 165 pounds, one to Nick Incontrera early in the season and one last weekend to Shane Griffith by bonus. The Griffith loss was not a Kennedy’s best performance, but he’s had moments this year where he looked strong, competitive and impressive at weight, most notably in his 5-1 win over No. 8 Edmond Ruth of Illinois. 

Penn State’s Carter Starocci, though, is going to take the mat against Kennedy in Iowa City looking for bonus. He’s ruthless and competitive, demolishing nearly everyone in his path. Ohio State’s Rocco Welsh held Starocci to a decision last weekend in State College, and Starocci no doubt wants to quiet any speculation that he might be beatable. After all, this is a guy who said after the NCAA press conference that his mindset when wrestling an opposing guy is to “drag him in deep waters and feel his soul leave of his body and just keep coming after him…That kind of gets me going. I like that feeling.”

Starocci is a self-described “straight killer.” Look for him to come out hard and attack for points through the final whistle. Kennedy’s task of fending off those shots will a be a tough one. 

184 pounds: Aiden Riggins vs. No. 6 Bernie Truax

Iowa doesn’t have to use Kennedy at 174 pounds, though, and the Hawks don’t have to use probable starter Aiden Riggins at 184 pounds. They can be creative. Against Iowa State, Iowa slated Kennedy in at 174 pounds and bumped up true freshman Gabe Arnold to 184 pounds. Kennedy beat Iowa State’s No. 19 MJ Gaitan in that dual, and Arnold beat No. 8 Feldkamp. Arnold has several duals left in which he can compete attached for the Hawks without burning his redshirt, and this would not be a bad dual to field the freshman, as whoever Iowa elects to wrestle will have a shot against three-time All-American Bernie Truax. 

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Truax, a Cal Poly transfer, is 8-2 on the year with a loss to All-American Trey Munoz and a loss by fall last weekend to Ryder Rogotzke of Ohio State. Aiden Riggins, meanwhile is 7-8, though he is coming off two wins against Northwestern and Michigan. Can Riggins beat Truax? Anything can happen, certainly, but Arnold’s resume this year suggests he’d be a better matchup, though Arnold did say on The Bader Show earlier this year that he does not expect to bump up to 184 pounds again. Given that comment, and given Iowa’s probables, there’s a high likelihood that Riggins gets the nod, suggesting that this could be another bonus opportunity for Penn State simply based on Truax’s history. 

197 pounds: No. 11 Zach Glazier vs. No. 1 Aaron Brooks

At the start of the season, this match between Aaron Brooks and Zach Glazier may not have gotten a lot of hype. And certainly Brooks is still a large favorite. But, Glazier deserves some credit here. 

In his fifth year in the Iowa program, Glazier finally earned his starting spot. He’s now 14-0 with 78+% bonus, and he has wins over Big Ten champion Silas Allred (by bonus) and two wins over No. 20 Garrett Joles. He’s looked like every bit of an All-American. 

These are the matches you want#Hawkeyes pic.twitter.com/0lV3WKiDI1

— Iowa Hawkeye Wrestling (@Hawks_Wrestling) February 7, 2024

Brooks, though, is a three-time champ and someone who could quickly put an end to Glazier’s undefeated streak. Nine of Brooks’ ten matches this year have ended early, either by fall or tech fall, and this one could follow the same pattern. This is an important match for Glazier though because he hasn’t had a test like this all season. Staying competitive with Brooks and working to keep the match to a decision could give him great experience heading into the postseason.

Plus, Carver is known for its magic. How might Glazier be able to maximize this moment? 

285 pounds: No. 29 Bradley Hill vs. No. 1 Greg Kerkvliet

Much like 197 pounds, the edge here belongs to Penn State in a significant way. Nittany Lion junior Greg Kerkvliet is 9-0 with wins over No. 6 Lucas Davison, No. 7 Nick Feldman, No. 9 Nathan Taylor, No. 15 Owen Trephan, No. 24 Boone McDermott. He’s a favorite to win a national title this year and contribute to what could be one of the best programs in NCAA history. 

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Iowa’s Bradley Hill will have a tough time here, but Hill isn’t someone to scoff at. The Hawkeye starter is 11-4 with solid performances in his victories against four-time national qualifier Cole Urbas and Nebraska’s Nash Hutmacher. Iowa also has options here and could send out true freshman Ben Kueter, but, regardless of which Hawkeye takes the mat, fending off Kerkvliet may be difficult. 

Iowa will want to do everything it can to have some momentum and some points on the board going into these last four weights. No team has scored more than ten points against the Nittany Lions so far this year, so that’s the first bar to clear as Iowa chases the biggest upset of the season.