Holt called the fiscal note “an embarrassment to the Department of Corrections” and “an agenda masquerading as math.”

“It is clear, in my judgment, that because they did not like the legislation they went all out and extreme to create a fiscal note that cannot be taken seriously in its assumptions,” he said. “It assumes that nothing will change, that there will be no deterrent factor and that the numbers will continue as usual.”

Black Iowans would be disproportionately impacted by the law

The Legislative Services Agency analysis says the bill “may disproportionately impact Black individuals if trends remain constant.”

Of the 29,438 people convicted in fiscal year 2025 of felonies and aggravated misdemeanors that constitute a level one offense under the bill, the agency said about 70% were White, 22% were Black and 9% were other races.

Iowa’s overall population is 83% White, 4% Black and 13% other races, the agency said.

It’s not clear how the bill’s impact would change to account for the House amendment removing some crimes from counting towards the three strikes.

“Expanding three-strike laws will intensify disparities — and that’s what this statement shows — by mandating longer sentences, limiting judicial discretion,” Wilburn said. “We already have a habitual offender statute. We already have one in place. We have a 10-year low in recidivism in our correctional system.”

Rep. Angel Ramirez, D-Cedar Rapids, said California’s three strikes law, passed in the 1990s, worsened racial disparities, and “Iowa is about to repeat the same mistake.”

“I urge every member here, do not pass legislation that our own minority impact statement tells us will deepen inequality in our state,” Ramirez said.

Holt said minority communities in Iowa are impacted by crime and that the legislation “will make citizens of all colors safer.”

And he said the minority impact statement “tells only one side of the story, doesn’t it? It tells the criminal’s story. What about the victim’s story?”

“What about the mother who will continue to tuck her kids in at night and read them Bible stories because she never became the next victim of a violent career criminal?” he said. “Where is that data point in the minority impact statement?”

House lawmakers also approved separate legislation that would increase Iowa’s statewide bond schedule, Senate File 2399.

That bill passed on a vote of 74-19.

Iowans could see more information on judges’ rulings

Iowans would have access to more information about judges’ rulings ahead of the state’s judicial retention elections under a separate measure, House File 2719, which passed on a 73-19 vote.

The Iowa secretary of state’s office would be required to publish information including:

• The percentage of cases in which the judge set a bond amount lower than the state’s bond schedule
• The frequency that the judge releases someone on their own recognizance for a violent offense compared to a nonviolent offense
• The frequency that the judge’s final sentence is lower than statutory recommendations or a prosecutor’s recommendations
• The number of times the judge issues a deferred judgement, deferred sentence or suspended sentence
• The number of times the judge’s rulings are reversed on appeal due to abuse of discretion or error of law
• The average time it takes the judge to rule on a motion or case
• The number of cases the judge has resolved compared to the number of cases on the judge’s docket

The data would have to be displayed with a five-year trend line beginning five years after the bill takes effect.

The Secretary of State’s Office would also be required to maintain a searchable database of all judicial opinions and orders for the judge’s current term and the preceding six years. The decisions would be redacted when appropriate.

And judges would have the opportunity to write a 2,000-word personal statement on their judicial philosophy or data trends present in their rulings.

Stephen Gruber-Miller covers the Iowa Statehouse and politics for the Register. He can be reached by email at sgrubermil@registermedia.com or by phone at 515-284-8169. Follow him on X at @sgrubermiller.