INDIANAPOLIS – Just two days stand between the Indiana Pacers and their offseason-defining date. May 10 is the 2026 NBA Draft lottery, and the Pacers have a 52.1% chance of keeping their first-round draft pick.

If the lottery places the Pacers top selection inside the first four slots, Indiana will keep that draft pick. If it falls to fifth or sixth, the only other possible outcomes, it will be sent to the Los Angeles Clippers as a part of the trade that netted the Pacers center Ivica Zubac.

“We were trying to protect our upside at the top of the draft mostly,” Pacers general manager Chad Buchanan said of the trade and draft pick protections in February. The Pacers would also have kept the first rounder if it landed between 10 and 30, but that became irrelevant after the Pacers ended the season poorly.

Now, the team has roughly a coin flip chance to hang on to their high draft selection this season. They have an offseason plan for any draft lottery outcome, but a top pick would be preferred. Any direction the Pacers go this summer will be determined by their lottery fate.

Buchanan had much more to say about the Pacers offseason during a recent interview on The Ride with JMV on 107.5 The Fan in Indianapolis. “When we made the trade, we knew there was risk involved just as there is in any other trade. But with the draft pick involved, you’ve got to look at the finances of the situation and the scenario where you keep the pick, the scenario where we lose the pick. We felt that both scenarios provided opportunities to help our team be better next year,” he said. The Pacers eyes toward championship contention right now made the trade worth it, even with the draft-related risk. “We feel like we have a team [that]… We’re in that [Contention] mix when we’re healthy.”

What will the Pacers do to stay contenders?

Buchanan admitted that while long-term thinking is generally prudent, the Pacers have a window right now with Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam on the roster. They want to go for it. Losing the top-four pick would hurt, but there are other opportunities for the team to get better.

“Should we lose the pick, there’s other opportunities to improve our team through free agency. We still have trades. We gain a pick that we can use in the future for a trade. We felt like there’s a way to improve our team either way with whatever the ping pong balls, however they fall for us. We’re not putting all of our eggs into one basket, that ‘Hey, if we don’t keep this pick, it’s doom and gloom,’ [thinking], because it’s not,” Buchanan said. “Because there’s other windows and other doors that open with that opportunity. If we do get the pick, obviously it’s a great opportunity to add a young player to this team. The core of it comes down to, Ivica [Zubac] is a great player. We’ve been a big believer, a big fan of him for a long time. This team has shown that it’s capable of doing some really special things, and we were missing a starting center that we felt could keep us in that mix.”

Buchanan and Pacers head coach Rick Carlisle have discussed the two directions the Pacers offseason could take. One is more draft focused, with the team’s major addition obviously being a top-four pick in that case. The other way Indiana could go is into free agency. That’s far more likely if they lose their first-round selection. They could use various salary cap exceptions to add talent in that reality, though the roster would still be expensive and near the luxury tax or first apron.

But if the team isn’t providing lip service about their belief that they have a contention window right now, they shouldn’t care as much about those spending barriers. Rather, they should be focused on adding to the team, and in particular replacing some key roles they’ve lost in the last few seasons.

While the Pacers core remains intact, some of their better reserves have either taken deals elsewhere or been traded across the last few seasons. Zubac replaced Myles Turner, but since the Pacers first made the Eastern Conference Finals in 2023-24, they’ve also lost the likes of Jalen Smith, Isaiah Jackson, Bennedict Mathurin, Doug McDermott, and Thomas Bryant. Along the way, most of those departures made sense for one reason or another – Jackson and Mathurin were traded as matching salary for Zubac, as an example. But the Pacers depth, a superpower in recent campaigns, has slowly dripped away.

That influences their needs in the offseason. “Can I say health? Does that count as a need?” Buchanan joked when asked about what the Pacers need next season. To his point: The Pacers had the second-most games lost due to injury and the most salary lost in player absences.

In terms of actual roster needs, Buchanan identified a few. The departure of Mathurin created a big hole for the team’s second unit, and they have some other questions to answer.

“I think one thing this season revealed for us is the need for some scoring off our bench… Probably from the wing position. Losing (Mathurin), you lose some of that. But I think this team, we have some depth. We still have some holes to fill,” Buchanan began. Some of the projected top-four picks in the upcoming draft could fill that role, as could a free agent acquired using some of the Mid-Level Exception.

Most of the Pacers rotation seems fairly set. Their starting five from the 2025 NBA Finals – minus Turner, plus Zubac – seems fairly set. T.J. McConnell and Obi Toppin have obvious roles off the bench. A draft pick could be in the mix, as could one or both of Ben Sheppard and Jarace Walker.

On the interior, Jay Huff currently projects to be the Pacers backup center. Buchanan did mention that position as a possible spot to look at in the offseason.

“I think you look at maybe the five position, do we have a backup center we feel comfortable with? We had (Huff) and (Micah Potter), both had good moments this year. Do we feel good about that position?” Buchanan wondered. Huff’s production given his contract is solid, and he’s never played with Haliburton. But his first season in Indiana was certainly up and down.

Buchanan also mused about the depth of the wing position on his roster, a natural thought with Johnny Furphy injured and Kobe Brown entering free agency. He also mentioned reserve point guard as a possible need – the Pacers cycled through many players in that role during the 2025-26 campaign.

Some of the team’s needs may be filled by internal candidates. And they won’t have a ton of spending power in the offseason. But they will look to make improvements as contenders, and they’ll explore every avenue to make it happen. Including, yes, trading their first-round pick if the right opportunity appears.

“You’ve got to consider everything. If you have a pick up there, you’re looking at obviously who are the players on the board to pick from,” Buchanan began. “But if we can find another player or multiple assets that help us with this team to try to compete for a championship, we’re going to consider everything on that.”

While there will be top-end stability for the Pacers, the offseason could come with changes to the rotation. How those changes look will be determined at Sunday’s draft lottery.