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Grading College Football Playoff sleepers … from Indiana to Illinois

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Grading College Football Playoff sleepers … from Indiana to Illinois


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  • Indiana Hoosiers are a College Football Playoff contender, and that’s no joke. Go ahead, Google it.
  • In the floplympics, Mike Norvell leads Lincoln Riley and Hugh Freeze.
  • When evaluating playoff sleepers, Indiana and SMU stand out a bit ahead of the rest.

Coach “Google Me” saw a spike in search traffic Saturday afternoon.

Indiana’s 56-7 destruction of Nebraska sparked more college football observers to familiarize themselves with Curt Cignetti, the first-year coach of the Hoosiers who’s full of bravado, with the résumé to back it up.

“There was a national perception that Nebraska had a pretty legit defense on a national scale,” Cignetti said after the romp. “So, that will open eyes, OK?”

Consider me wide-eyed.

The Hoosiers are among seven undefeated Power Four teams, and although their 7-0 record comes as a surprise to many, it doesn’t to Cignetti, who boldly declared this after Indiana hired him: “It’s pretty simple. I win. Google me.”

More than halfway through Cignetti’s first season in Bloomington, the prospect of his Hoosiers qualifying for the College Football Playoff generates some Google buzz.

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Indiana’s playoff hopes are real, for three reasons:

1. The schedule breaks nicely. The Hoosiers won’t play fellow the Big Ten’s other undefeated teams, Oregon and Penn State, during the regular season. Just one ranked opponent, Ohio State, lurks on Indiana’s schedule. The Hoosiers represents the Big Ten’s best chance at a fourth playoff qualifier, and an 11-1 record might entice the CFP committee, as long as Indiana doesn’t get demolished by the Buckeyes.

2. The Hoosiers aren’t just winning. They’re blowing out their competition. So, true, this win against No. 25 Nebraska registers as their best win, but the selection committee shouldn’t ignore an average margin of victory of 35 points.

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3. No obvious weakness cripples Indiana, and veteran quarterback Kurtis Rourke registers as a trump card.

Cignetti disproved the notion that fans must wait patiently for years while a program turnaround creeps forward. In this microwave era, Cignetti flipped the roster by adding 31 transfers, third-most in the nation. Rourke, an Ohio transfer, ranked as a premier prize, though he is expected to miss next week’s game against Washington due to a hand injury.

Cignetti’s transfer haul included several quality players who followed him off James Madison’s team that finished 11-2 last season.

If you haven’t by now, go ahead and Google Cignetti. You’ll see he’s never had a losing record in 14 seasons as a coach, across Division II, FCS and FBS. He’s coached three programs into their respective division’s playoff. His career winning percentage checks in at .783, and he’s not content with Indiana being a cute October story before fading into basketball season.

“I’m not going to let (players) get complacent, or the coaches either,” Cignetti said. “I was a maniac in the fourth quarter of this game, a maniac.”

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In this case, I think being a maniac is a good thing. I’ll Google it, to be sure.

MISERY INDEX: Oklahoma tops most miserable fanbase after Week 8

HIGHS AND LOWS: Georgia, Alabama headline Week 8 winners and losers

What’s the status of Indiana and some playoff sleepers? Here’s the “Topp Rope” view:

Evaluating College Football Playoff sleeper teams

Indiana (7-0): Indiana’s schedule could backfire if the bubble overcrowds. The Hoosiers didn’t play a Power Four nonconference opponent. Games against Western Illinois, Charlotte and Florida International anchor their strength of schedule. Nonetheless, when evaluating sleeper teams for the playoff, Indiana’s offensive and defense balance and litany of blowout victories make the Hoosiers a … Real contender.

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Southern Methodist (6-1): The Mustangs lost by three points to Brigham Young, but that’s not a dealbreaker considering the Cougars are undefeated and might win the Big 12. SMU should be favored its remaining games, opening a pathway to the ACC championship game. Real contender

Pittsburgh (6-0): Like Indiana, Pitt is made vulnerable to snub because of a soft strength of schedule. Unlike Indiana, the Panthers win in white-knuckle fashion. Three wins came by four points or fewer. Credit the grit, but brace for the second-half wobble against a stiffening schedule that includes SMU and Clemson. Longshot contender.

Army (7-0): Army’s option offense is a beautiful sight. To have hope of a playoff bid, Army needs to beat Notre Dame, win out, and a two-loss team winning the Mountain West would assist the cause. Of note, the Army-Navy game on Dec. 14 won’t count toward playoff determination. That presents as a sticky wicket for the playoff committee. Would it risk placing Army or Navy into the playoff, knowing that either could lose the following week and soil the committee’s selection? Longshot contender.

Navy (6-0): Sound fundamentals, roster retention and player development still resonate. Behold Army and Navy. Everything I wrote about Army is also true of Navy. The Midshipmen need to beat Notre Dame, run the table, and root for a two-loss Mountain West champion. Longshot contender.

Illinois (6-1): Bret Bielema’s return to the Big Ten has been “borderline erotic,” as he would say. The formula Bielema used to success at Wisconsin also resonates at Illinois. The Illini join Indiana as basketball schools with a playoff prayer. The trouble for Illinois is it drew a tougher schedule than Indiana, and the Illini are a 21½-point Saturday underdog at Oregon. And a loss effectively eliminates Illinois, making the Illini … The ultimate longshot.

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Battle for the bottom 

Alabama fans ready to punt Kalen DeBoer back to Washington, take solace: At least the Tide didn’t hire Mike Norvell. And at least you’re not Auburn. 

With five games to go, Norvell’s Florida State Seminoles (1-6) already wrapped up the gold for biggest flop. Fresh off a 13-1 season, the ‘Noles checked out of the penthouse and into the outhouse.

In the stall next to them is Southern California (3-4). That the Trojans lost to Penn State was no disaster, but they also own losses to Michigan, Maryland and Minnesota. M-M-Mercy.

Lincoln Riley avoided the SEC by jettisoning Oklahoma for USC, but he’s found the Big Ten to be too tough. Perhaps he should relegate back to the Big 12. If you can’t cut it L.A., try Waco, Texas. 

Monstrous, cost-prohibitive buyouts protect Norvell and Riley.

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That’s not true of Hugh Freeze, who eyes the bronze in bust battle royale.

Auburn (2-5) keeps finding ways to lose. The latest: Missouri marched 95 yards to steal a 21-17 victory. Freeze’s $20-plus million buyout is a fraction what it would cost either Florida State or USC to make a coaching change, and Auburn has a firm stomach for buyouts.

A 2025 recruiting class that ranks No. 5 nationally by 247sports gives Freeze the thinnest layer of cover. In a time when boosters influence recruiting as much as the coach, are some pledged blue-chippers enough to save a beleaguered coach?

Ask me again next month when we what Auburn’s record is and whether that recruiting class slipped.

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Three and out

1. Georgia’s 30-15 upset of Texas boosted the SEC’s quest to horde the most playoff bids. Texas had been the conference’s last remaining undefeated team, and even after defeat, the Longhorns enjoy a navigable path to the playoff, while Georgia solidified its footing. Unless the bubble clears significantly, five bids for any conference feels almost out of reach, but the result in Austin increased the SEC’s chance for four bids.

2. Coaches will do almost anything to gain an advantage, so how long until a coach reflects on Saturday’s situation at Missouri and begins campaigning for a hospital to be built next to the stadium? Missouri quarterback Brady Cook made a midgame hospital trip during the Tigers’ win against Auburn for an MRI on his injured ankle. University Hospital is just across the street from Faurot Field. Cook had time to get evaluated and return to engineer a fourth-quarter comeback. “No. 1 characteristic of an elite quarterback is toughness,” Missouri coach Eliah Drinkwitz said, “and that guy’s got it written all over him.” And a relevant characteristic of any hospital is its proximity to you.

3. My latest “Topp Rope” playoff projection: Georgia (SEC), Ohio State (Big Ten), Clemson (ACC), Brigham Young (Big 12), Boise State (Group of Five), plus at-large selections Texas, Texas A&M, Tennessee, Oregon, Penn State, Notre Dame, Miami. Next up: Iowa State, LSU, Indiana, SMU, Kansas State.

Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network’s national college football columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on Twitter @btoppmeyer.

The “Topp Rope” is his football column published throughout the USA TODAY Network.

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Subscribe to read all of his columns.





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Indiana

Light showers are likely for Christmas | Dec. 25, 2024

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Light showers are likely for Christmas | Dec. 25, 2024


INDIANAPOLIS (WISH) — Merry Christmas! Gray skies and showers will be the main story in central Indiana today with warmer weather and more rain chances this weekend.

TODAY: Light on/off showers are likely for Christmas. There are some patchy spots of fog this morning. High temperatures in the mid-40s which is slightly above average.

TONIGHT: On/off rain likely early on. Rainfall totals from Wednesday morning through early Wednesday night will generally be between 0.1″ and 0.5″. Cloudy skies remain. Low temperatures in the low 40s.

TOMORROW: Another gloomy day with mostly cloudy to cloudy skies and the chance of drizzle. High temperatures in the low 50s.

7-DAY FORECAST: Our next system is on the way late Friday into the weekend bringing waves of rain chances and warmer weather. Above-average temperatures will continue all the way through the end of 2024.



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Todd’s Take: Wishes For Peace In The World Of Indiana Athletics

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Todd’s Take: Wishes For Peace In The World Of Indiana Athletics


BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – Christmas songs. You know ‘em. You love some of ‘em. You dislike some of ‘em, too.

I’m no different. I have a soft spot for “Do They Know It’s Christmas?” – a sort of touchstone for people my age. (I’m bending over backward to avoid using the term “Gen X,” a generational generalization I detest with a passion, but I digress.)

The lyrics to “Do They Know It’s Christmas?” are condescending and paternalistic in hindsight, but the purpose and sentiment of the song was genuine, and it represented a time for people my age (I was 13 when it was released) where the world seemed to be striving to be a better place.

And where else are you going to hear Simon Le Bon, Bono and Sting sing together on the same record?

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On the other hand? As much as I like Paul McCartney, if I never heard “Wonderful Christmastime” and its world’s most annoying synths ever again, I would be a happy man.

Then there’s some songs where you can separate the lyrics from the song itself. “Let There Be Peace On Earth” falls into that category.

Despite what the internet may tell you – no, Vince Gill did not originate the song – when I’ve heard “Let There Be Peace On Earth” over the years, I’ve always been left cold. It fits into that sappy category I tend to avoid. It also seemed to be a favorite of music classes when I was in school, so I automatically think of it as being sung by a high-pitched children’s choir – not my thing.

However, I do like the message in the chorus. “Let there be peace on Earth … and let it begin with me.” Sappy or not, that’s a fine way to live.

And also a good way to create a theme for this column. The internet is filled with so much negativity, so I thought I’d give the criticism a break and try to find peace for the people in the world I populate – Indiana and Big Ten athletics.

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No snark, no surprise attacks, honest wishes on a day where people should set the acrimony aside. So here goes.

Indiana football coach Curt Cignetti – Now is not the right time with rosters being rebuilt and such, but when things slow down, I wish you the peace of a sense of accomplishment. Sit down in that recliner of yours and appreciate that you coached the greatest season in Indiana history.

Indiana football fans – Find the recliner – real or metaphorical – of your own choice and find peace in how satisfying the ride was in 2024. The impossible became possible in 2024. It was a helluva journey, wasn’t it?

Indiana men’s basketball coach Mike Woodson – The peace that comes from consistency. The peace that would come from a win over a ranked team. The peace that would come from winning a road game in Big Ten play. The peace that would come from anything that takes away the perception that the Hoosiers are spinning their wheels.

Indiana men’s basketball fans – Peace in the form of a team that can demonstrate it can hang with the best of the Big Ten Conference. That’s an achievable goal given that the Big Ten doesn’t have a dominant team, but something the Hoosiers haven’t proven they can consistently provide yet. Until they can, that peace is hard to come by.

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Indiana women’s basketball coach Teri Moren – The peace that comes from good health – in every respect. The Hoosiers should be as close to full strength as they have been in nearly a month when Big Ten action resumes Saturday when Wisconsin visits.

Indiana season ticket holders – The peace of a nice Christmas bonus. The price of success in football is quite literal, as I’m sure your bills have already told you. The days of cheap tickets and parking for football disappeared mid-season. Supporting the Hoosiers has never been harder on the bottom line.

Indiana crazies – I just want you to have peace … period, that’s it, just peace, if only just for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. The seemingly bottomless desire for a segment of fans to top themselves in the self-flagellating “we suck” or “so-and-so sucks” department is depressing, irritating and droningly repetitive. Much like the soldiers in the first year of World War I who stopped shooting at each other to meet in no man’s land to express Christmas wishes, all I ask is to give it a rest in the spirit of Christmas. Then resume fire afterward if you must.

Indiana athletic director Scott Dolson – I wish Dolson the peace of a college athletics landscape that stabilizes in the near future. The House settlement should create some ground rules to help make this happen – assuming the settlement is approved by the courts. Dolson is well-paid to sort these matters out, but instability isn’t good for anyone.

Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti – Same wish of peace that was expressed for Dolson, but also, the peace of having a Big Ten team crowned a football national champion in mid-January. It would be the second in a row for the league, and I’ll admit selfishness here as I just want it for the purposes of silly, tribalistic regional pride.

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Big Ten Network – The peace of some good games during basketball season. Maybe? Just a few? It’s looking as if it might take a low win total to contend in the Big Ten as no team is dominant. Mediocre league? Your mileage may vary, but then again, the Big Ten Network always grants itself the peace of spinning it to make it look good regardless. So perhaps the wish for peace is better placed with us, not them.

I wish you and your loved ones peace as well. Merry Christmas everyone!



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Indiana turns to transfer portal again, lands Cal QB, Maryland RB

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Indiana turns to transfer portal again, lands Cal QB, Maryland RB


A notable transfer class helped Indiana win 11 games for the first time in school history and make a surprise appearance in the college football playoff this season.

It appears coach Curt Cignetti is attempting to recreate that magic in 2025, landing a pair of notable offensive weapons through the portal ahead of Christmas.

On Monday, the Hoosiers landed Maryland running back Roman Hemby, who rushed for 607 yards and six touchdowns this year and has 2,347 yards and 22 touchdowns on the ground in his career.

He has led the Terps in rushing in each of the last three seasons while earning All-Big Ten Honorable Mention honors twice and being named a Freshman All-American.

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Henby will compete with senior Kaelon Black and UAB transfer Lee Beebe Jr. for snaps in the spring.

The Hoosiers got more good news on Tuesday, landing Cal quarterback Fernando Mendoza via the transfer portal, 247 Sports reported.

The 6-foot-5, 225-pound signal-caller has made 19 starts with the Golden Bears over the last two seasons, completing 66 percent of his passes for 4,712 yards with 30 touchdowns and 16 interceptions.

He has also rushed for 197 yards and four touchdowns during his time in Berkeley.

He is the older brother of IU true freshman quarterback Alberto Mendoza. His arrival in Bloomington is huge for the team that needs to replace Kurtis Rourke.

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Georgia, Missouri, and UCLA were the other schools that were aggressively pursuing Mendoza, according to 247 Sports.

Mendoza will be the favorite to start at QB next season after top backup Tayven Jackson entered the transfer portal this week.

Indiana lost to Notre Dame in the first round of the first 12-team playoff on Dec. 20. The Hoosiers open the 2025 season against Old Dominion on Aug. 30.



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