Expect a progressive tax, higher education spending and a Bears stadium to be high on the agenda for Illinois state lawmakers.

Taxpayers have reason to worry as the second half of the 104th Illinois General Assembly begins on Jan. 13.

Typically, lawmakers file and pass fewer bills in the second year of the regular session. But based on the chaotic end to the 2025 regular session and the active veto session, lawmakers are likely to make some costly moves.

Issues to watch: a progressive tax, higher education spending, Tier 2 pensions, data centers, energy and a Chicago Bears stadium.

Issues to watch in 2026

While fewer bills are expected to make it to Pritzker’s desk in 2026, those that could impact taxpayers the most involve a progressive tax, higher education spending, Tier 2 pensions, data centers, energy and a Chicago Bears stadium.

Progressive tax

Illinois has always had a flat income tax. Yet in 2020, lawmakers attempted to amend the state constitution to permit a graduated-rate structure. That amendment would give lawmakers great power to start taxing retirees and raise rates on family farms and small businesses. Illinoisans rejected the amendment resoundingly.

Despite that clear signal from voters, lawmakers filed another bill in 2025 that would have started the amendment process. If passed by voters, that amendment would eliminate Illinois’ constitutional protection that requires when taxes are hiked, they be hiked on everyone so everyone can hold state lawmakers accountable. The bill died, but relentless lawmakers are trying again with a new bill filed during veto session that would let them divide and conquer taxpayers, one income group at a time.

Higher education spending

Illinois was ranked No. 1 for spending per student on higher education in 2024, paying more than double the national average because of declining enrollment, poorly structured finances, growing pension payments and bloated administration. Lawmakers must take a strategic, statewide approach to how it nurtures young people after high school by fixing university funding and broadening workforce training.

Tier 2 pensions

At the end of veto session, a bill increasing Tier 2 pension benefits was passed out of the Illinois House Executive Committee. Projected to cost the state $52.7 billion, the bill would make sweeping changes for pension systems across the state, increasing benefits for Illinois’ Tier 2 retirees hired after 2010.  Government unions are expected to push for boosted benefits during the new session.

Data centers, energy

Despite lifting the 40-year moratorium on nuclear energy at the end of veto session, “Illinois is running out of power.”

Gov. J.B. Pritzker has been touting a clean energy bill that was signed into law in 2021. But his mandate to eliminate coal and natural gas generation of electricity by 2050 may not be feasible. Natural gas and coal plants might be needed to fuel data centers.

While lifting the nuclear moratorium was a win for reliability and innovation, more state control and added regulations risk undoing those gains. Illinois should embrace policies that make energy cheaper, cleaner and more dependable through competition and regulatory restraint, not deeper political control.

Chicago Bears stadium

The Chicago Bears purchased the former Arlington Park Racetrack in 2023 for $197.2 million. Nearly three years later, the dream of a new stadium is elusive.

Needing state support to develop a new stadium the Bears’ lease at Solider Field expires in 2033, but it can be broken with a penalty.

A 2025 bill would have required teams to win at least 50% of their games in the past 3-in-5 seasons if they want taxpayer funds for a new stadium or to renovate an existing one.

Now, Bears President and CEO Kevin Warren has announced the team’s need to “expand our search and critically evaluate opportunities throughout the wider Chicagoland region, including Northwest Indiana” citing “no legislative partnership” and a desire for a “world-class stadium.” With that, Illinoisans can expect more political wrangling over a stadium in 2026.

Lawmakers historically pass fewer bills in the second half of session

The Illinois General Assembly operates on two-year sessions. Based on data going back to 2003, lawmakers tend to file and pass fewer bills in the second year.

On average, there have been 6,364 bills filed in the regular session of the first year compared to 3,445 bills filed in regular session of the second year. The trend is similar for how many bills are passed in the first year versus the second.

The first year of a legislative session sees an average of 633 bills passed by both chambers, while the second year sees an average of 451 bills passed.

With elections in November following the second year of session, state lawmakers are more likely to be judged for their actions and more cautious with the bills they file and approve. All Illinois House members and 39 of the 59 Illinois Senate seats will be decided by voters Nov. 3.

Based on two decades worth of trends, Pritzker should expect to see fewer than 400 bills cross his desk in 2026.

But with everything from public pensions to sports stadiums on the agenda for lawmakers this spring, the second half of the 104th Illinois General Assembly could get explosive in Springfield and expensive for taxpayers.

SPRINGFIELD, Ill. (WLS) — Illinois House Speaker Emanuel “Chris” Welch is pushing for a new tax on millionaires as the General Assembly gets ready to return to work in Springfield next week.

It comes as lawmakers face a $2.2 billion budget deficit.

ABC7 Chicago is now streaming 24/7. Click here to watch

This is an election year budget: So, if Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson was hoping for state approval for some progressive tax ideas he’s floated, he might have to wait another year.

But state lawmakers appear ready to ask the wealthy to pay more.

“Nothing new, we’ve done it before,” the Democratic speaker said.

Welch, in a recent interview, was seemingly unfazed by the $2 billion deficit.

“Tomorrow is my five-year anniversary as speaker of the House. And I think every year, in January, going into the start of session, we’ve been faced with a deficit,” Welch said.

This session, the focus will be on affordability. It’s something that Democrats and Republicans define differently.

“In the veto session, passing that transit reform bill was historic. If that’s not an affordability bill, I don’t know what is,” Welch said.

“Under him, over the last five years, our budget, it’s gone from $40 billion to $55 billion. So, I don’t really know what affordability means to me. One thing that it cannot mean, and I don’t think it will mean in a campaign year, is increase in taxes,” House Republican Leader state Rep. Tony McCombie said.

Speaker Welch suggested Mayor Johnson’s hopes for state approval for progressive taxes, such as one on professional services, may go nowhere.

“We’re going to put those things through the hopper like we would any other idea. I don’t know if there’s an appetite for anything right now,” Welch said.

A tax surcharge on incomes over a million dollars, modeled after Massachusetts, which Forbes reports saw a windfall of $5.7 billion during the first two years, is possible, he said.

“I have been a very big believer that the wealthy should pay more, that they should pay their fair share, and I think a surcharge tax on millionaires is an easy way to do it,” Welch said.

“You know, I think it’d just be another thing to make us unfriendly to folks that have assets and resources to come here and want to build and grow their businesses,” McCombie said.

As for the Bears, Welch said he’d be open to state infrastructure help at the Arlington Heights property, but that’s about it.

“When it comes to the Bears. I don’t know if folks want us to make that a top priority,” Welch said.

Welch said some of the focus this session will be to address rising home insurance rates and property taxes.

And while he says Mayor Johnson and his team have gotten better at communicating with legislative leaders, he said they should not wait until April or May to make their requests.