Rep. Bill Foster, an Illinois Democrat, agreed to three debates in his primary election race against Qasim Rashid, an insurgent progressive. Foster later dropped out of the other two debates, citing conflicting events. The first and only time Foster appeared alongside Rashid, the decadelong incumbent left halfway through the candidate forum, claiming he had another obligation.

Rashid said Foster is reluctant to defend his own record. Among other issues, the incumbent had criticized Israel’s war against Palestinians in Gaza but stopped short of calling for a ceasefire. Protesters were at the forum to express their displeasure with Foster and Rep. Sean Casten, a Democrat from a neighboring district, who also attended, for refusing to call for a ceasefire.

“Fundamentally, they realize that he wants them to vote for a record that even he isn’t willing to defend.”

“Voters are upset,” Rashid told The Intercept, said of Foster’s refusal to debate. “Fundamentally, they realize that he wants them to vote for a record that even he isn’t willing to defend.”

The March 19 Democratic primary in the suburbs and rural towns northwest of Chicago could become another congressional race where Israel plays an outsized role. Rashid is running on a broader progressive platform — hitting Foster for being out of touch with Democrats in the district and his acceptance of money from corporate PACs, fossil fuel companies, and the health insurance and pharmaceutical industries — but the ceasefire debate looms large.

Observers anticipate that Israel issues will attract outside money from lobbying groups like the American Israel Public Affairs Committee that are preparing to spend record amounts to defend Democrats that toe their line. And Foster had already amassed support from pro-Israel donors: One of his top contributors this cycle is the private equality group Apollo Global Management, whose CEO Marc Rowan helped orchestrate the ousting of the president and board chair at the University of Pennsylvania over Israel’s war on Gaza. (Foster’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment.)

Pro-Israel groups have worked to oust other Democrats in Illinois who opposed unconditional U.S. military support for Israel, including Rep. Delia Ramirez and former Rep. Marie Newman. AIPAC joined conservative Democrats to defeat Newman’s 2018 congressional campaign. Newman won election in 2020 but become a target of pro-Israel groups again last cycle and lost her reelection campaign.

Newman, who is supporting Rashid’s campaign, told The Intercept that the threat of spending from groups like AIPAC and its ally, Democratic Majority for Israel, is scaring incumbents into submission and deepening schisms within the Democratic Party.

“In the last 3 months I’ve talked to several MOCs” — members of Congress — “who live in absolute fear of AIPAC and DMFI working against them or primarying them,” Newman said by text. “More than anything else I’m deeply concerned about how AIPAC, Democratic Majority for Israel (DMFI) and their 20 affiliate PACs are putting a huge wedge in the Democratic Party, particularly in the House.”

AIPAC Waiting in the Wings

For decades, AIPAC played an influential role in Middle Eastern policy by sending its legions to lobby members of Congress in their offices and only organizing campaign donations informally among members. In recent years, however, the group transformed its spending on congressional elections with the launch of a new super PAC in the last election cycle.

The direct influence on money in politics has exacerbated partisan rifts that have emerged around Israel and AIPAC. Democratic voters, for their part, are shifting away from AIPAC’s uncompromising positions on the Israeli–Palestinian conflict — especially as a majority of Americans came to support the ceasefire that AIPAC opposes.

Amid the current flare-up of violence, even some more centrist Democrats have found themselves unable to stay in lockstep with AIPAC, which frowns on virtually all criticism of Israel. In Illinois’s 11th Congressional District, for instance, Rashid acknowledged that Foster has also been a vocal critic of Israel. With the death toll in Gaza mounting, Foster has expressed concern about Benjamin Netanyahu’s military strategy and said there was a “special place in hell” for the prime minister, but stopped short of calling for a ceasefire.

Foster’s record, Rashid said, is more notable for the things he has not done. He voted for two measures expressing support for Israel, but neither of them mentioned Palestinians killed by Israeli forces. Foster is not a co-sponsor of the ceasefire resolution introduced in October nor a resolution introduced by another Illinois Democrat, Ramirez, that honored a 6-year-old boy, Wadee Alfayoumi, who was killed in Plainfield in an alleged hate crime during the first week of Israel’s war on Gaza.

Foster criticizes Israel’s actions, Rashid said, but won’t take the steps necessary to end the bloodshed in Gaza — namely supporting a ceasefire.

“The big difference between he and I is not on a question of whether international law is being violated. We both agree with that,” Rashid said. “The difference is that I have the integrity to say it and demand action.”

Foster has long had support from J Street, a pro-Israel advocacy group that positions itself as a liberal alternative to AIPAC. Until this week, J Street had resisted pressure, both internal and external, to call for a ceasefire, even threatening to pull endorsements from members who did so. The group announced support for a “negotiated stop” to violence in Gaza on Monday.

J Street said in a statement to The Intercept that it’s proud to endorse Foster again this year. Foster has “been a champion for pro-Israel, pro-peace, pro-democracy values on Capitol Hill since his election in 2008,” J Street spokesperson Tali DeGroot told The Intercept, pointing to his support for the now-defunct 2015 Iran nuclear deal, which was supported by J Street but opposed by AIPAC, the Israeli government, and a clutch of hawkish Democrats.

“We’ve seen the polling. Eighty percent of Democrats want a ceasefire.”

Rashid’s campaign has been careful to tread lightly on the Israel question while pushing unequivocally for a ceasefire. His approach has been to focus on ending the humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip and tap into majority support for a ceasefire among Democratic voters. “We’ve seen the polling. Eighty percent of Democrats want a ceasefire,” Rashid said. “Even a majority of Republicans and Independents want a ceasefire. For us, this is basic integrity.”

Foster has been in office for a decade and faced few challengers in recent years. Foster’s last opponent in the 2020 Democratic primary, Rachel Ventura, received 41 percent of the vote.

Rashid works at a Chicago law firm and grew up in the area, which he recently returned to. In 2020, he ran as the Democratic candidate in the general election for Virginia’s 1st Congressional District and lost to Republican Rep. Robert Wittman.

Rashid raised $305,000 in the third quarter of 2023 — $10,000 more than Foster — and had $114,000 cash on hand. Foster has $1.3 million cash on hand and $1 million in debts, according to filings with the Federal Election Commission. Rashid said his campaign had received more than 10,000 individual contributions. In the Democratic primary, a large cash intervention by AIPAC or one of its allies could play a major part.

Rashid, for his part, said he was ready for the challenges: “I have immense confidence in voters that they’re sick and tired of the mudslinging and the negativity and these outside lobbyist organizations meddling in our races.”