This weekend brings us a meeting between ranked Big Ten rivals, one looking to earn its first conference win and another hoping to win a second league game, as No. 19 Illinois goes on the road to Happy Valley against No. 9 Penn State in college football’s Week 5 action on Saturday night. 

Illinois already boasts a road victory against a ranked Big Ten opponent after taking down Nebraska last week and defeating a then-ranked Kansas team a few weeks ago.

Penn State is perfect through 3 games and is coming off a 56-0 domination against Kent State, embarking on the first of an expected three Big Ten games against ranked opponents this season.

What can we expect in the matchup this weekend?

Let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Penn State and Illinois compare in this Big Ten football game under the lights.

As expected, the simulations are siding more with the home team this weekend.

SP+ predicts that Penn State will defeat Illinois by a projected score of 33 to 15 and will win the game by an expected 18.6 points.

The model gives the Nittany Lions a strong 88 percent chance of outright victory in the game.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 105-91-1 against the spread with a 53.6 win percentage.

Penn State is a 17.5 point favorite against Illinois, according to the lines at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the moneyline odds for Penn State -1200 and for Illinois at +720 to win outright.

And the book set the total at 47.5 points for the game.

If you’re using this projection to bet on the game, you should take …

Other analytical models also favor the Nittany Lions to take down the Fighting Illini.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Penn State is projected to win the game in the majority 86.3 percent of the computer’s updated simulations.

That leaves Illinois as the expected winner in the remaining 13.7 percent of sims.

Penn State is projected to be 16.9 points better than Illinois on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.

Penn State is second among Big Ten teams with a 59.2 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff and will win 10.2 games this season, according to the FPI’s metrics.

That model gives Illinois a 9.1 percent shot at the playoff and a win projection of 8 games.

When: Sat., Sept. 28
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET | 6:30 p.m. CT
TV: NBC network

More … Penn State vs. Illinois prediction: What the analytics say

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It’s not the White Out, but the energy Saturday night in and around Beaver Stadium is likely going to feel like a marquee home game.

This isn’t the kind of matchup many expected, myself included, when the schedule was released. No. 9 Penn State (3-0) has a homecoming game that suddenly features two ranked opponents. No. 19 Illinois (4-0) returns to the place where it last needed nine overtimes to beat the Nittany Lions in 2021.

Over time, Penn State and Illinois have given college football fans quite a few dramatic moments. Overcoming a 21-0 first quarter deficit added to the legacy of Penn State’s undefeated 1994 team, a group that will be honored on the field Saturday. There was also LaVar Arrington’s famous leap in 1999 that won’t soon be forgotten in State College or Champaign, Ill. Joe Paterno’s 409th career win, his last as Penn State’s head coach, came in a 10-7 win against the Illini in 2011.

Will Saturday night live up to some of the drama these teams have produced before? We’re certainly going to learn much more about this team. Here are three keys and a prediction.

How do Drew Allar, receivers handle Illinois’ man coverage?

This is the best test to date for Andy Kotelnicki’s offense. The Illini are 32nd nationally in total defense, surrendering an average of 292.3 yards per game. West Virginia, Penn State’s Week 1 opponent, is 102nd, while Bowling Green is 110th. Last week’s record-setting offensive performance against Kent State, in which Allar exited early in the third quarter with a 35-0 lead, was not a good barometer for much of anything.

Still, the Penn State offense has been as advertised this year, averaging 537.7 yards and 41.3 points per game. It’s been explosive, quick-strike and dynamic with lots of pre-snap motion and creativity. Penn State won’t march up and down the field all night against a Bret Bielema team. But, we should find out how this offense responds to a true test.

Can Penn State string together a long, sustained drive if it needs to? For all the strides this receiving corps has made, whether it’s been Harrison Wallace III, Omari Evans or tight end Tyler Warren, how does it stack up against better defensive backs?

Count James Franklin among those who are curious to learn more.

“Their secondary is really going to be a challenge for us,” Franklin said. “Our wide receivers have taken a really nice step and made some really good strides since last season, but we will be challenged.”

Do the wrinkles create pause?

Throughout nonconference play, Kotelnicki has shown countless creative wrinkles. Backup quarterback Beau Pribula has a role in every game. Warren, a tight end, has thrown a touchdown pass and taken a direct snap. Offensive lineman Vega Ioane could line up again as a lead blocker. There will be other options off many of these plays depending on how and when Kotelnicki uses them.

Illinois, like most opponents, can go back to Kansas’ film to see more of what Kotelnicki did prior to arriving at Penn State. How much time did Illinois’ defense spend this week trying to decipher all Penn State has shown and what it could show based off Kansas?

While Kotelnicki is willing to use his creativity at any point on the field, Penn State has scored on 13 of 14 trips to the red zone this season. Twelve of those trips have resulted in touchdowns. Doing anything to slow down defensive end Gabe Jacas will be key. Jacas forced two fumbles this season to go along with four tackles for loss and two sacks.

What’s the next gear for this Penn State defense?

Abdul Carter and Dani Dennis-Sutton each recorded a sack against Kent State, their first of the season. They haven’t stuffed the stat sheet like most expected during nonconference games. Franklin insists it’s the style Bowling Green and Kent State played: Get the ball out quickly and limit the opportunities for two two talented edge rushers to go to work.

All of that changes now. Quarterback Luke Altmyer has completed 71.4 percent of passes and has yet to throw an interception this season. Altmyer has passed for 862 yards and had a rush of 15 yards or more in three of four games. Illinois is 82nd in total offense, and if Penn State can force it to have to play from behind, then these defensive ends should have plenty of opportunities to generate a pass rush.

This is as well rested of a Penn State defensive line as one can expect. No defensive lineman played more than 19 snaps and no starter played more than 23 snaps last week against Kent State.

Keep in mind

Penn State still has to work toward a long-term solution at safety without starter KJ Winston. Winston is dealing with a long-term injury, and there’s been no indication if or when he could potentially return. Ideally, freshman Dejuan Lane eventually slides into the starting spot opposite Zakee Wheatley. That solution would allow Jaylen Reed to play the lion position where he’s thrived. Per TruMedia, Lane played 22 snaps against Kent State. How much will they put on the freshman’s plate in conference play?

“I’m thankful for the 7:30 game. I know that sounds silly, but with some of the young guys that we’re playing, we need every minute we can in preparation,” Franklin said.

Don’t forget about

Tom Allen’s new spot. The defensive coordinator called the Kent State game from upstairs. Typically, Allen had been on the sideline while safeties coach Anthony Poindexter was in the booth. The swapped places last week. Franklin was non-committal about the game-day change being permanent, but it seems like the switch was made after communication issues popped up in the first half against Bowling Green.

Playoff implications

A win against a ranked opponent would certainly bolster the College Football Playoff resume. At this point, that’s what it’s all about. There’s certainly some temptation to think a few weeks down the road when Penn State plays No. 13 USC, but until then, this is a solid measuring stick, especially for Allar and the offense.

Player we’ll be talking about Sunday

Running back Nick Singleton has amassed 314 rushing yards and three total touchdowns through three games. Illinois’ 35th-ranked run defense will be a test, but as Bielema also pointed out, this is the best offensive line his team has seen.

Prediction

This one reminds me of the Iowa game last year. It was a night game, the Hawkeyes were ranked 24th at the time, and yet it never was close. Penn State’s offense had arguably its best showing of the season, and the defense was superb. A similar script could unfold Saturday night under the lights.

Penn State 30, Illinois 13

 (Photo of Omari Evans: Scott Taetsch / Getty Images)

From tacos to burritos to quesabirria, customers can’t stop raving about El Tragon Taqueria in Chicago’s Lincoln Park neighborhood, and said the secret is out.

“I was not surprised at all,” customer Zachary Weil said. “I know that it’s very high quality, family run restaurant obviously it’s like the best tacos so we’re here like once a week.”

“It is phenomenal I come here for the quesabirria tacos,” customer Mike Lee said. “They’re just so great, they’re sweet, they’re savory, they’re spicy.”

The taco joint is located in the parking lot of a Mobil gas station near Halsted and Division and opened its doors three years ago.

“We usually get the bistec tacos or the chicken torta,” customer Sarah Siddiqui said. “Everything on the menu is pretty amazing.”

The owner from Mexico, who spent 30 years in the restaurant industry in the city, found out Wednesday morning that they were named the “Best Taco Spot” in Illinois in a Yelp list.

“We’re in a gas station, so I think the first instinct that people have is ‘Oh, this is a gas station, so oh they must not be good,’” owner Gerardo Madrigal said.

Yelp said the rankings are based on reviews mentioning relevant keywords and then ranking those spots using several factors, including the total volume between January 2019 and July 2024.

“I couldn’t believe it,” he said. “Someone texted me in the morning, I thought it was a joke.”

With a small staff, he wanted to bring a taste of his hometown to Chicago. He said everything is made fresh and from scratch and that good seasoning and consistency is key to a good taco.

“I don’t know what to say there are so many good places in the city, but I mean it’s an honor,” Madrigal said. “We’re just trying to keep it simple and natural,” he said. “If you see in this picture, it’s just taco places in my hometown—just basic, I’m not trying to invent the taco again.”

He knows his place has come a long way from when they first opened with barely any customers. He said he is grateful to his loyal customers for spreading the word and for the new recognition.

“We’re humbled,” he said. “We’re humbled.”