The Illinois Legislature’s Fee on Authorities Forecasting and Accountability launched its newest month-to-month fiscal report final week. The report claimed the state remains to be on monitor to match the fee’s revised November estimate of a $4.1 billion income enhance for the present fiscal yr.

Income had initially been projected to fall from the earlier fiscal yr. And far of the just lately projected enhance is believed to be a one-time occasion and has thus far been handled as such.

However income projections have develop into so unreliably squirrelly that teams which depend on state funding are beginning to push to get their justifiable share of what they see as a fast-growing pie.

Check out Medicaid, an all the time sophisticated and costly subject that may develop into rather more so within the coming months.

Greater than 300,000 Illinoisans threat shedding Medicaid protection on the finish of March. There are those that imagine that a lot of these of us are already again on employer well being care protection (or ought to be). States haven’t been required to conduct redeterminations on Medicaid recipients through the pandemic, and that course of will restart quickly.

Whereas the state may get monetary savings with fewer Medicaid recipients, states are additionally shedding a part of their federal Medicaid matching {dollars} that had been elevated through the pandemic. The federal authorities has elevated matching charges throughout previous financial downturns, but it surely’s by no means straightforward to regulate to a lower, notably when states have acquired a lot additional for thus lengthy.

Hospitals had been hit laborious by the pandemic. They misplaced the power to supply revenue-producing companies through the closures, and the lethal viral waves that adopted decimated their workforce, with sickness, deaths and burnout.

When that federal Medicaid match falls, hospitals will undoubtedly really feel a fair better pinch. Hospital closures are already a nationwide downside, and it may get even worse because the monetary stress will increase.

Previously, hospitals had been pushed to extend their self-assessments, which injected extra money into the Medicaid system and produced extra matching federal funds. However hospitals say the state is cash-flush sufficient to supply extra money by itself.

And, like I famous above, there’s little or no belief in price range projections. If the projection is flat or much less, it’ll be met with widespread skepticism. And lots of are actually eyeing the state’s new $1 billion wet day fund.

However the issues don’t finish there. The state has allowed out-of-state and retired nurses to observe right here through the pandemic, and people emergency guidelines will disappear in Could, when the governor’s pandemic government orders expire.

The Illinois Hospital Affiliation estimates 15,000 of these nurses are working right here proper now, a lot of whom are well-paid touring nurses. Whereas the journey nurses are straining hospital budgets, the workforce scenario is such that the sudden lack of that many nurses may shock your complete system and create enormous further prices.

The hospitals have been making an attempt for years to enroll the state in an interstate nursing compact to permit non-Illinois nurses to observe right here, however that has all the time been thwarted by unions.

The governor has already stated he needs to enormously increase preschool and baby care packages and make school tuition “free for each working-class household.” All of that may value cash, and hospitals are only one group that can be pounding on the door.

Hospitals are the most important employers in most downstate and even some suburban legislative districts. And even when they aren’t the most important employers, their boards are often populated with probably the most influential enterprise leaders within the area. It’s very laborious to disregard them.

In the meantime, after forcefully opposing a graduated revenue tax in 2020, the Civic Committee of the Industrial Membership of Chicago is now proposing a 10-year, private and company state revenue tax “surcharge” of 0.5% and 0.7%, respectively, no matter revenue.

Not one of the $2.9 billion raised by the tax hike may very well be spent on social companies or different price range priorities. As a substitute, all the cash can be despatched to the pension funds and the wet day fund.

The group additionally says the state ought to implement principally unspecified “value disciplines” to assist pay for the plan. It suggests an instance of slicing company spending by 2-3% as a begin. It additionally suggests eliminating the property tax on belongings above $4 million, the present state set off. They need to’ve left that one out as a result of it’s a nasty look, to say the least.

Widening the income base whereas narrowing the spending base makes fiscal sense on paper. However the report ignores the many years of all-too-real state underfunding of companies for folks with dire wants.

Wealthy Miller additionally publishes Capitol Fax, a each day political e-newsletter, and CapitolFax.com.

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