Several analysts on Wall Street see a clear winner emerging from President Donald Trump’s new auto tariff policy: Tesla.

Trump announced on Wednesday that all cars not made in the U.S. would be slapped with a 25% tariff beginning next week. The news sent shares of major American car producers in diverging directions in Thursday’s trading as Wall Street analyzed who would be most and least hurt by the policy change.

So far, multiple analysts see Elon Musk’s electric vehicle giant as a relative beneficiary given its domestic production. The stock rose more than 5%.

Put simply: “Tesla wins, Detroit bleeds,” wrote Bernstein analyst Daniel Roeska in a Thursday note to clients.

Roeska called Tesla the “clear structural winner” of the policy, adding that it has a localized market share and is “better insulated” from trade risk. On the other hand, he said Ford and General Motors could see declines of up to 30% in earnings before interest and taxes this year.

“For everyone else, this is a margin reset and real drag on near-term earnings power,” he said of companies besides Tesla.

UBS analyst Joseph Spak noted both Tesla and competitor Rivian could “fare better” with 100% of production in the U.S. Rivian shares also were nearly 5% higher Thursday.

But for others in the industry, Spak said there will “clearly be some pain” as tariffs take effect.

TD Cowen analyst Itay Michaeli said Tesla’s substantial domestic sourcing helps make the company a “relative winner.” This is especially true for Tesla’s Model Y, which competes in the midsize crossover segment, a category that will now see close to half of all vehicles hit with levies. Presumably, a portion of the tariffs is likely to be passed on to consumers, making these vehicles more pricey.

Despite Thursday’s gains, Tesla shares have tumbled around 30% this year. Some of the declines have been attributed to political backlash against Musk, who is a key aid to Trump and acts as the face of the president’s government efficiency initiative.

As Tesla shares declined, Trump said earlier this month that he would purchase a Tesla in a show of support for Musk.

But Trump said the billionaire entrepreneur did not advise on auto tariffs because of a potential conflict of interest. Musk posted on his social media platform X that his company was not immune to effects from the policy.

“Important to note that Tesla is NOT unscathed here,” Musk wrote. “The tariff impact on Tesla is still significant.”

Still, Wall Street expects Tesla stock to rebound ahead, with most analysts polled by LSEG having a buy rating and an average price target suggesting about 18% in upside.

TD Cowen’s Michaeli called Trump’s announcement “close to the worst case outcome” compared with recent expectations for the policy.

He expects a “significant” initial impact to the Detroit Big Three. Based on policy as it is currently understood, he said Ford should be the least exposed in the group, while Stellantis may be the most exposed.

UBS’ Spak said to expect automakers to raise prices as a result. For Ford and General Motors, he estimated the average price tag could rise between $4,000 and $5,000 if 100% of the cost increase is mitigated.

Analysts pointed out that not every legacy automaker would be hit equally. Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu, for instance, listed Ford alongside Tesla in the “most shielded” bucket.

There are also some points of disagreement on which firms would feel the most pressure. Despite Michaeli saying Stellantis would be most exposed, Bernstein’s Roeska said the company should show “relative resilience” compared with other Detroit Big Three carmakers.

Ford’s stock declined 3%, while GM shares shed nearly 8%. Stellantis stock fell more than 2%.

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