The Philadelphia Phillies (51-26) visit the Detroit Tigers (36-41) on Monday for the start of a 3-game series at Comerica Park. First pitch is slated for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Phillies vs. Tigers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Phillies won 3-0 in 2023
Philadelphia is on the road after a 4-2 homestand. Despite owning the top winning percentage in MLB (.662), the Phillies are just 1-4 in their last 5 road games.
Detroit is continuing a homestand that opened with the Tigers taking 2 of 3 from the Chicago White Sox over the weekend. The Bengals have struggled offensively of late; before scoring 11 runs in a Sunday triumph, they have slogged their way to a .597 OPS over the previous 15 games.
Phillies at Tigers projected starters
RHP Aaron Nola vs. RHP Casey Mize
Nola (8-3, 3.54 ERA) is making his 16th start. He has authored a 1.06 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 in 94 IP.
- Last outing: No-decision, 6 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 4-3 win vs. San Diego Padres Tuesday
- Career vs. Tigers: 2-0, 1.40 ERA (25 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 18 H, 8 BB, 31 K in 4 starts
- Has benefited from a .246 batting average on balls in play (.219 BABIP against inning-leadoff batters)
Mize (1-5, 4.43 ERA) is lined up for his 15th start. He has a 1.45 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 6.0 K/9 in 69 IP.
- Last outing: Loss, 4 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 3 K in 2-1 loss at Atlanta Braves Tuesday
- Has never faced the Phillies
- Has pitched fewer than 6 innings in 5 of his last 6 outings
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Phillies at Tigers odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Sunday at 12:01 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Phillies -175 (bet $175 to win $100) | Tigers +145 (bet $100 to win $145)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (-105) | Tigers +1.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Phillies at Tigers picks and predictions
Prediction
Tigers 5, Phillies 4
Moneyline
Mize, who owns a 3.26 ERA at home, has been hurt around the margins and figures to be under-bet. Nola’s numbers swing the either way. And he faltered badly in his last road turn and the 5-day rest interval has not always agreed with him in the later years of his career.
A shaky-of-late Detroit offense has been undone, in part, by a .262 batting average on balls in play in the month of June.
The Tigers are the lesser club, but they are 8-6 over their last 14 games and the tag here offers some underdog value. BACK DETROIT (+145).
Run line/Against the spread
The Over has a lean here, but the weather forecast calls for an inward breeze and the total is relatively low. A Detroit +1.5 play would be worth looking into if the price got near -105. Otherwise, AVOID and shoot for the outright plus-money return.
Over/Under
The Under cashed in 2 of 3 series meetings a year ago and is 4-1 across the last 5 Philly-Detroit games.
But the Phils can bang the ball around and the Tigers offense figures as undervalued by just a bit. The OVER 8 (-115) is worth consideration on a partial-unit basis.
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