Will Tigers trade Tarik Skubal before free agency? MLB insider speaks
USA TODAY Sports baseball insider Bob Nightengale joins “Days of Roar” podcast to answer several questions about Detroit Tigers left-hander Tarik Skubal, who can become a free agent after the 2026 season.
The Detroit Tigers and left-hander Tarik Skubal did not agree to terms on a one-year contract for the 2026 season before the 8 p.m. deadline Thursday, Jan. 8, to exchange salary figures in the arbitration process.
Skubal filed at $32 million; the Tigers filed at $19 million.
It’s a difference of $13 million.
An arbitration panel will review the case during a hearing scheduled for late January or early to mid-February. The arbitrators must determine whether Skubal is worth more or less than the $25.5 million midpoint. If he’s worth more, they will select his $32 million proposal; if less, they will select the Tigers’ $19 million proposal. The panel isn’t allowed to choose a salary in between $19 million and $32 million.
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The Tigers operate as a file-and-trial club in salary arbitration under president of baseball operations Scott Harris, meaning there won’t be further negotiations with Skubal regarding a one-year contract. A multi-year contract could still be negotiated, but it’s highly unlikely.
Skubal – represented by agent Scott Boras – reaches free agency after the 2026 season. The 29-year-old is positioned to become the first pitcher in MLB history to receive a $400 million contract.
If the two sides were to reach an agreement before a hearing, it would likely be a one-year contract with a player option, thus maintaining Skubal’s path to free agency in the 2026-27 offseason.
The reigning back-to-back American League Cy Young winner was projected by MLB Trade Rumors to receive $17.8 million in his third and final year of salary arbitration. He previously earned $2.65 million in 2024, then $10.15 million in 2025.
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Why couldn’t the Tigers and Skubal agree on a salary for 2026?
The arbitration case for Skubal is unusually complex, thanks to a rarely used provision highlighted by ESPN’s Jeff Passan. Because Skubal has more than five years of MLB service time, he isn’t limited to comparing himself only to past arbitration-eligible players. Instead, he can compare himself to any player in baseball.
Those unique rights allow Skubal – who has five years, 114 days of service time – to point to MLB’s highest-paid pitchers (such as Max Scherzer’s $43.3 million per year from 2022-24 or Zack Wheeler’s $42 million per year from 2025-27), arguing that his elite performance warrants a salary in that range – not in the $17.8 million range, as projected by MLB Trade Rumors.
That’s what pushed the Tigers and Skubal to an arbitration hearing.
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The current record for the largest one-year arbitration contract belongs to outfielder Juan Soto, who agreed to $31 million with the New York Yankees for the 2024 season.
If Skubal wins the arbitration hearing, he will surpass Soto and claim the new record with his proposed $32 million salary. If Skubal loses, then he will earn the $19 million salary proposed by the Tigers.
There are two other arbitration records on the line.
The highest-paid arbitration-eligible pitcher belongs to right-hander David Price, who earned $19.75 million with the Tigers in 2015 – his fourth year in the arbitration process as a Super Two qualifier. The largest raise for an arbitration-eligible pitcher belongs to right-hander Jacob deGrom, who surged from $7.4 million to $17 million – an increase of $9.6 million – with the New York Mets in 2019.
Those records for pitchers will belong to Skubal – but only if his proposed $32 million salary is selected by the arbitration panel. He will fall just short of the records if the panel selects the Tigers’ proposed $19 million.
Skubal is the best pitcher in baseball.
More notably, he is on a Hall of Fame trajectory.
In 2025, Skubal registered a 2.21 ERA with 33 walks (4.4% walk rate) and 241 strikeouts (32.2% strikeout rate) across 195⅓ innings in 31 starts. He made the All-Star Game for the second time in his six-year MLB career.
Skubal became the first back-to-back AL Cy Young winner since right-hander Pedro Martínez in 1999-2000, leading the AL with a 2.39 ERA in 2024 and a 2.21 ERA in 2025.
The Tigers haven’t been to an arbitration hearing since right-hander Michael Fulmer in 2019.
Fulmer lost the case, receiving the Tigers’ proposed $2.8 million salary rather than his requested $3.4 million. Before that hearing, the Tigers hadn’t participated in an arbitration hearing since 2001 – and the Tigers haven’t lost a case since 2000.
Contact Evan Petzold at epetzold@freepress.com or follow him @EvanPetzold.
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