CLEVELAND–– There are eight spots remaining in the Sweet 16, and one of those spots will be taken by either No. 2 Alabama or No. 7 Saint Mary’s when the two teams meet Sunday evening in Cleveland.

Alabama is trying to reach its third straight Sweet 16 while Saint Mary’s is looking to get there for the first time since 2010. Here are three things to watch for that might determine who gets there:

A lot has been made about the contrasting tempos of these two teams. Because of the slow pace the Gaels play at, it’s really challenging for a team to score a lot of points; however, the Crimson Tide has been the No. 1 scoring offense in college basketball this season at over 91 points per game.

Saint Mary’s has now allowed an opponent to score more than 80 points all season while Alabama has only fallen short of that marker four times and is 1-3 in games when scoring less than 80 points.

The number alone won’t determine who wins or loses this game, but if Alabama is able to reach that marker it will likely signify that the Crimson Tide was able to play more at the pace it wanted with a better chance of winning.

Alabama lost the rebounding battle in Round 1 to Robert Morris, a team that was much smaller physically and less athletic than the Crimson Tide. Robert Morris finished with 16 offensive rebounds.

Saint Mary’s has more size and is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country, averaging almost 14 per game. Alabama can’t afford to let the Gaels steal extra possessions by grabbing offensive rebounds.

If Alabama isn’t able to crash the defensive glass well, it will also prevent the team from getting the ball out quickly and moving up the floor in transition to play at the tempo it would prefer. Rebounding will be crucial for Alabama’s success.

The Crimson Tide made just six 3-point shots against Robert Morris. Alabama has proven it can win without shooting well from beyond the arc, but it sure does help.

Alabama’s primary 3-point shooters–– Mark Sears, Chris Youngblood and Aden Holloway–– combined to go 3 of 15 in the opening round game. Head coach Nate Oats wants to see all of those guys get going.

With the pace Saint Mary’s wants to play at, Alabama can make things really difficult on the Gaels if it starts getting in rhythm from deep.

No. 2 seed Michigan State pulled away from No. 15 seed Bryant to set up a second round matchup against No. 10 seed New Mexico, who pulled the minor upset in the first round against No. 7 seed New Mexico. 

We have a high level guard matchup between Donovan Dent of New Mexico and Michigan State freshman Jase Richardson with a spot in the Sweet 16 on the line. Can the Lobos continue its run in the NCAA Tournament on Sunday night? 

Here’s our betting preview for this one. 

Spread

Moneyline

Total: 147.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

New Mexico

Donovan Dent: The Mountain West Player of the Year had a slow start against Marquette, but made plenty of clutch plays to secure the victory on Friday night. The eighth highest scorer in the country at nearly 21 points per game, Dent also averages more than six assists as he will look to out-duel the Spartans on Sunday. 

Michigan State

Jase Richardson: The freshman has continued to take on more of a role as the season continued, and he had a strong showing in his NCAA Tournament, scoring 15 points with three rebounds and two assists. Can the dynamic guard continue to improve with each passing game?

These two teams profile similar to one another, paced by elite defense and a knack for dominating the rebounding battle. 

Both clubs are far more potent on offense when in transition, but that is what each defense does a phenomenal job at, forcing teams to operate in the halfcourt. We saw New Mexico limit Marquette’s ability to run in the first round victory, and I can see the group doing a similar job in this one as Michigan State has been a middling shooting group all season. 

The Spartans are 150th in the country in effective field goal percentage, but have done an excellent job on the glass all year long, ranking second nationally in rebounding percentage. However, the Lobos are sturdy on the glass as well, 53rd nationally, and exceptional on the defensive glass, 19th in defensive rebounding rate. 

Neither team is a strong three-point shooting group, and both want to force the issue inside, New Mexico is 163rd in three-point percentage while Michigan State is 316th. So, both teams try to get to the rim, but both defenses profile as elite interior outfits on that side of the ball. 

All of this is to say, I believe that each team is forced to play in the half court and struggle to find its shots, keeping this game under the total after both did the same in the first round. 

PICK: UNDER 147.5 (-110, Available at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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CLEVELAND –– Alabama men’s basketball is known for its lightning-quick pace. So much so that the Crimson Tide’s 78.8 possessions per game is the most in the nation.

This fast play-style has helped Alabama to create the No. 1 scoring offense (91.1 points per game) in college basketball, which has led to a placement as the 2-seed in the East Region of the NCAA Tournament.

The Tide survived a 90-81 scare against 15-seed Robert Morris in Cleveland on Thursday afternoon and will face 7-seed Saint Mary’s in the same Rocket Arena on Sunday.

While Alabama aims for as many possessions as possible, the exact opposite could be said about the Gaels. Saint Mary’s ranks 358th out of 364 in this category with 65.5 possessions per game. This has worked in their favor defensively as Saint Mary’s 60.5 points allowed per game is the fourth-best mark in the country.

“When we play these slower teams, it’s not really an adjustment, to be honest with you. I mean, we’re going to try to push the pace,” Alabama head coach Nate Oats said. “We just can’t let them get multiple shots on multiple possessions.

“We can’t get frustrated with their slow pace. I mean we may be lucky to get over 70 possessions. We’ve had multiple games this year where it’s been 80 possession games in 40 minutes. They’re comfortable playing closer to 60 possessions in the game sometimes. They’re a low-possession team, they’re very methodical, they’re very deliberate, and they’re very good at what they do. What they do, they do really well.”

Part of the reason for the Crimson Tide’s survival against Robert Morris was due to the Colonials winning 19-5 in the offensive rebounding battle. Alabama has a chance to redeem itself against the Gaels, but it will be extremely difficult as Saint Mary’s 13.9 offensive rebounds per game is good for No. 11 in the country.

This is how Alabama plans to counter Saint Mary’s slow pace.

“The emphasis is going to be on rebounding,” Oats said. “Some teams will be afraid to get in a running match with us…but they’re not. They send their three, four and five every single time, pretty much no matter what. So if we can defensive rebound, we can get some run-outs on these guys. So it’s not as if we’ve got to prepare. We just got to rebound, and we know it.”

“They’re not complicated in that they don’t run 50 different sets. They’re complicated in that they’re extremely good, and it’s hard to take them out of what they do. So they’re simplified, but good at what they do, and it’s going to take some toughness. You know, if we come in soft, we’re going to have a chance to win this game.”

Oats also emphasized that forcing tough shots will be crucial to Alabama’s success. In other words, continuing the Crimson Tide’s fast pace on offense won’t be Oats’ top priority as as keeping the Gaels on their toes will be higher on the totem pole.

Alabama forward Grant Nelson and guard Chris Youngblood are both aiming for as many possessions as possible but are also holding up Oats’ core values ahead of Sunday.

“Yeah, they obviously play a lot slower than us, so I feel like they’re going to try to slow the game down,” Nelson said. “But we saw yesterday at the beginning of the game when they played Vandy, where Vandy pushed the pace early and they got off to a good start. So we’re going to, obviously, try to play our game of basketball and push the pace on them.”

“It’s way easier to play fast when you’re getting stops, so the key is focus on getting stops and make sure we take care of the glass because they’re a great offensive rebounding team,” Youngblood said. “So the key is getting stops and taking care of the glass, and it’s easier to play fast where you’re playing off stops.”