Health
Is mpox the next COVID? Infectious disease experts address pandemic potential
As mpox (formerly monkeypox) has been declared a global public health emergency, some are wondering whether the virus poses the risk of a COVID-like pandemic.
The World Health Organization (WHO) officially declared the mpox outbreak a “public health emergency of international concern” on Aug. 14, based on a surge of cases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and multiple African countries.
As of Aug. 17, there were 545 reports of mpox cases since the outbreak was declared, 474 of which were confirmed, according to data from WHO.
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Symptoms include a sometimes painful rash on various parts of the body, fever, chills, exhaustion, muscle aches, headache, swollen lymph nodes and respiratory symptoms, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
There are two types of mpox: Clade 1 and Clade 2.
The World Health Organization officially declared the mpox outbreak a “public health emergency of international concern” on Aug. 14. (iStock)
Clade 2 was the strain that caused the 2022 global outbreak, the CDC noted. Survival rates for this type are more than 99.9%.
Clade 1, which is responsible for the current outbreak in the DRC and Africa, causes more severe illness and deaths.
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“Some outbreaks have killed up to 10% of the people who get sick, although more recent outbreaks have had lower death rates,” the CDC noted.
“The emergence of a new clade of mpox, its rapid spread in eastern DRC, and the reporting of cases in several neighboring countries are very worrying,” said WHO Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus when announcing the public health emergency.
“People are not going to catch mpox by being on the same bus or running into someone at the grocery store.”
“On top of outbreaks of other mpox clades in DRC and other countries in Africa, it’s clear that a coordinated international response is needed to stop these outbreaks and save lives.”
Is mpox the next COVID?
While health officials have expressed concern about the spread of a new strain of the potentially deadly virus, the consensus is that mpox is not likely to become a pandemic like COVID — primarily because it doesn’t spread in the same way.
“Certainly not,” said Dr. Daniel Kuritzkes, chief of infectious diseases at Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Boston, during a conversation with Fox News Digital.
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“What made COVID so contagious is that it is a respiratory virus spread by aerosols, so that even casual contact — being in the same room with someone for a reasonable period of time — meant you could catch [the virus]” from that person.
Another difference is that COVID is contagious starting from a day or so before someone develops symptoms, Kuritzkes pointed out.
Symptoms of mpox include a sometimes painful rash on various parts of the body, fever, chills, exhaustion, muscle aches, headache, swollen lymph nodes and respiratory symptoms. (iStock)
“By contrast, mpox requires close contact (skin-to-skin) for transmission in the vast majority of cases,” he said.
“Rarely, heavily contaminated material such as bedding can be infectious, but people are not going to catch mpox by being on the same bus or running into someone at the grocery store.”
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While mpox is far less contagious than COVID, it could potentially cause a “widely distributed epidemic” through sexual contact, according to Kuritzkes.
“HIV is now pandemic (found in all countries across the globe), but as high as the numbers are, it is not transmitted by casual contact,” he said. “The same is true of mpox.”
To prevent transmission of mpox, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends vaccination for men who are gay, bisexual or have sex with men, are age 18 or older, and have other specific risks. (PASCAL GUYOT/AFP via Getty Images)
Dr. Marc Siegel, senior medical analyst for Fox News and clinical professor of medicine at NYU Langone Medical Center, echoed that mpox is “not the new COVID.”
“It spreads via direct contact or sex, and kissing, and very close respiratory droplets, but not over longer distances by respiratory spread,” he told Fox News Digital.
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“Clade 1 is currently in DRC and neighboring African countries,” Siegel said.
“The U.S. has increased surveillance, including wastewater analysis, but there have been no cases [of Clade 1] found here yet.”
This undated image provided by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases shows a colorized transmission electron micrograph of mpox particles (red) found within an infected cell (blue), cultured in a laboratory at the NIAID Integrated Research Facility in Fort Detrick, Maryland. (NIAID via AP, File)
Dr. Brad Perkins, chief medical officer at Karius, a California life sciences company focused on saving lives from infectious diseases, reiterated that mpox is “considerably less infectious” for person-to-person spread than COVID-19.
“Mpox is primarily spread from person-to-person, usually through direct contact, including intimate contact — but on average, there are fewer people who become infected as a result of contact with a mpox case compared to COVID-19,” he told Fox News Digital.
Who is most at risk?
“While mpox can affect anyone, data has shown that men who have sex with men are disproportionately impacted, with a notable disease burden among Black and Hispanic men,” Perkins noted.
“This highlights the importance of early recognition and diagnosis, in addition to awareness and targeted vaccination of those who are at highest risk.”
“While mpox can affect anyone, data has shown that men who have sex with men are disproportionately impacted.”
As with other viral infections, those who are immunocompromised or very young are at the greatest risk of severe infection, according to Kuritzkes.
“For mpox, the main concern is for people with HIV who are not currently receiving effective antiretroviral therapy,” he added.
Patients wait outside the consultation room of an mpox treatment center in the Democratic Republic of Congo, on Aug. 16, 2024. Health Minister Samuel-Roger Kamba said in a video message that the country “has recorded 15,664 potential cases and 548 deaths since the beginning of the year,” with all 26 provinces affected. (Getty Images)
Even after the infection has cleared, survivors can face long-term effects and complications, Perkins warned.
“Conditions like vision impairment, encephalitis and scarring have been reported,” he told Fox News Digital.
“We need deeper research into characterizing and addressing these long-term sequelae.”
To prevent transmission of mpox, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommends vaccination for men who are gay, bisexual or have sex with men, are age 18 or older, and have other specific risks.
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Those risks include new diagnoses of sexually transmitted diseases and a recent history of multiple sex partners, among others.
“Second, and most obviously, would be to avoid close contact with people who have mpox lesions,” said Kuritzkes.
Doctors take samples from a patient at an mpox treatment center in the Democratic Republic of Congo, on Aug. 16, 2024. (Getty Images)
“The big issue is getting the vaccine to the people who need it in Central and West Africa to end the current outbreak.”
The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) has sent 50,000 doses of the JYNNEOS mpox vaccine to DRC, Siegel noted — “but there is still a worldwide shortage of this vaccine, which will prove crucial to stop the spread, especially if the outbreak widens.”
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In addition to the current vaccines and antiviral treatments that are available, Perkins stressed the need for new innovations in mpox diagnostics, therapeutics and preventive measures.
Over the two and a half years following the 2022 rollout of the 988 national suicide prevention hotline, the rate of suicides among young people in the United States dropped 11 percent below projections, decreasing most sharply in states with a higher volume of answered 988 calls, a new study has found.
The findings, published today as a research letter in JAMA, compared suicide deaths from July 2022 to December 2024 with sophisticated mathematical projections that were based on historical trends. This yielded good news, with 4,372 fewer suicides of adolescents and young adults, ages 15 to 34, than had been projected.
To ensure that the decline was related to the use of the hotline, researchers at Harvard Medical School teased out the trends in states with high and low usage of the hotline. The findings were striking: The 10 states with the largest increases in 988 calls experienced an 18.2 percent reduction in observed suicides compared with expected suicides; in the 10 states with the lowest uptake, the reduction was smaller, 10.6 percent.
The results suggest that the government’s investment in the 988 rollout has translated into “a measurable reduction of deaths,” said Dr. Vishal Patel, a resident physician at Brigham and Women’s Hospital and one of the authors of the study.
“What our study has added,” he said, “is evidence for the deeper benefit of the program, and that is, that at the population level, among young people at least, suicide mortality is lower than it would have been without the program.”
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He added, “The implication of that is that sustained funding for this program matters.”
The United States rolled out the three-digit hotline with bipartisan support in July 2022, replacing a 10-digit hotline number, and augmented it with a $1.5 billion investment in crisis center capacity. Since its inception, the service has fielded more than 25 million contacts, according to the Department of Health and Human Services. The agency has asked Congress for $534.6 million to fund the program for 2027.
Last summer, the Trump administration terminated one element of the hotline, the Press 3 option for L.G.B.T.Q.+ callers. The Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration said that the Press 3 option was being discontinued because it had exhausted its funding from Congress and that the hotline would “focus on serving all help seekers.”
But advocacy groups and policymakers protested the decision, and in testimony before the Senate on Tuesday, the health secretary, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., said his agency was planning to restore the Press 3 option.
Dr. Patel said his group had become curious about measuring the program’s effectiveness after Press 3 was eliminated. While call volume and satisfaction surveys suggested that 988 was succeeding, he said, the harder question was, “Did the creation of this 988 program, the transition from the old hotline to this hotline, actually move the needle on suicide mortality?”
Experts said it was difficult to tease out the beneficial effect of 988 from other things that changed in 2022, the year that the new hotline was created. Around that time, suicide prevention programs were being introduced in schools, in faith communities and on social media, but more important, the pandemic was ending.
“We were finally out of this crazy time, and there was a sense of optimism and hope,” said Jonathan B. Singer, a professor of social work at Loyola University Chicago and a co-author of “Suicide in Schools.” He called the downward trend in youth suicides “encouraging, but it is tempered by the fact that we don’t have a good explanation as to why.”
The authors acknowledged that their findings could not account for the influence of social and economic changes, changes in mental health services or public awareness about services.
But they did make comparisons to exclude other possible explanations. The authors looked for similar effects among American adults over 65, who are less likely to use the hotline. In that group, there was a reduction in suicides that exceeded expectations, but it was smaller, at just 4.5 percent.
To ensure the decline in suicides did not reflect a general improvement in young-adult mortality, the researchers tracked cancer deaths, and found there was no change. They also looked at the rates of suicide among young people in England, where no change had been made to the national crisis line in that time period; they found no reduction in youth suicides there.
Hannah Wesolowski, chief advocacy officer for the National Alliance on Mental Illness, said she was persuaded that the hotline had contributed to the improvement in suicide rates, in part because it did not appear among English youths or in older Americans.
“To me, that really helps hone in that this might really be the differentiator,” she said. “We are seeing potentially a pretty significant decline in suicides among young people. For public policy, this is strong evidence to double down on that we are doing.”
Emily Hilliard, a senior press secretary at the Department of Health and Human Services, said H.H.S. and SAMHSA are “committed to ensuring that all Americans have access” the 988 line, which she said “clearly provides lifesaving support, helping millions of people every year.”
If you are having thoughts of suicide, call or text 988 to reach the 988 Suicide and Crisis Lifeline or go to SpeakingOfSuicide.com/resources for a list of additional resources.
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A highly contagious digestive virus is surging across the U.S., experts warn.
Rotavirus, a double-stranded RNA virus, causes acute gastroenteritis — inflammation of the stomach and intestines — which can lead to severe diarrhea, vomiting, fever and stomach pain.
The virus primarily affects infants and young children, but there have also been outbreaks in elderly populations, such as nursing homes.
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Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows that in the week ending April 4, out of 2,329 rotavirus tests, 7.3% were positive for the infection. Last year’s highest infection rate was 6.77% as of the week ending April 19.
Rotavirus, a double-stranded RNA virus, causes acute gastroenteritis — inflammation of the stomach and intestines — which can lead to severe diarrhea, vomiting, fever and stomach pain. (iStock)
“We’re seeing a lot of rotavirus in the wastewater right now,” Dr. Marc Siegel, Fox News senior medical analyst, confirmed to Fox News Digital. “Testing for rotavirus is way down, but the percentage of positive tests is up.”
While the virus typically peaks in the spring, it is not currently slowing down, he noted.
Why cases may be rising
Patricia Pinto-Garcia, M.D., a medical editor at GoodRx who is based in California, said there are several possible reasons for the rotavirus spike.
“Vaccine rates are down overall among young children, as they decreased during COVID,” she told Fox News Digital. “This means there’s a growing number of infants and young children who are vulnerable to infection.”
The rotavirus vaccine series must be completed by the time a child is 8 months old, she noted.
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As a result of the declining vaccinations, herd immunity isn’t protecting vulnerable children, according to Pinto-Garcia. “Children who haven’t finished the vaccine series yet, are too young to get vaccinated, or can’t get the vaccine due to medical illness are more likely to get exposed to the illness because other children aren’t vaccinated,” she said.
Siegel noted that before the vaccine became available, rotavirus resulted in 55,000 to 70,000 in the U.S. per year.
“Vaccine rates are down overall among young children, as they decreased during COVID,” a doctor told Fox News Digital. “This means there’s a growing number of infants and young children who are vulnerable to infection.” (iStock)
“I am concerned that the vaccination rate has been declining over the past seven years and is continuing to decline in the current climate of vaccine skepticism,” he said.
Surveillance methods are also much better than they used to be, Pinto-Garcia noted, which means public health experts are able to pick up and track cases better than ever before.
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“But we see that rotavirus-related healthcare visits are also up, so improved detection is not the only reason we are seeing this spike,” she said.
The COVID pandemic also disrupted the pattern of infections, according to Pinto-Garcia, so it’s “tricky” to compare the current levels against older cycles.
“It’s possible that what we are seeing is still some post-pandemic rebound, but it’s unlikely that this year’s pattern is fully explained by just this factor,” she added.
Transmission and risk
Dr. Zachary Hoy, a pediatric infectious disease specialist at Pediatrix Medical Group based in Nashville, Tennessee, often sees young patients with rotavirus.
“Rotavirus is spread via the fecal-oral route, meaning that a person comes into contact with virus droplets from contact with other children or adults, or from contact with objects such as toys that have been contaminated with the virus from someone who is sick,” he told Fox News Digital. “This can lead to outbreaks, especially at schools where many young children share the same toys.”
“It’s possible that what we are seeing is still some post-pandemic rebound, but it’s unlikely that this year’s pattern is fully explained by just this factor.”
Rotavirus is associated with many dehydration cases in the hospital due to the degree of diarrhea, according to Hoy.
In some severe cases, the virus can lead to seizures due to electrolyte imbalances from dehydration and loss of electrolytes in the stool.
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“Younger children do not have the reserves that older children and adults have, so they can become more dehydrated quicker and develop more severe electrolyte imbalances, leading to more severe infections,” Hoy said.
“Patients with problems with their immune systems or on medications that can decrease their immune systems can have more severe and prolonged infections, too.”
Treatment and care
Because rotavirus is a viral infection, antibiotics are not effective against it. There is no specific antiviral treatment for the condition, with doctors typically recommending supportive care.
“The mainstay of treatment is hospitalization for rehydration via intravenous (IV) fluids,” Hoy told Fox News Digital. “Sometimes it can take up to two to three days of IV fluids to help get patients rehydrated.”
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Blood draws are often necessary to evaluate patients’ electrolyte levels, such as sodium, potassium, calcium and magnesium, according to the doctor.
“If these electrolyte levels are significantly low, sometimes patients need special IV solutions or individual electrolyte medications,” he added.
“The mainstay of treatment is hospitalization for rehydration via intravenous (IV) fluids,” a doctor told Fox News Digital. (iStock)
Dr. Daniel Park, medical director of the Pediatric Emergency Department at UNC Health in Chapel Hill, North Carolina, noted that most children recover with supportive care, but parents should seek medical attention if a child shows signs of dehydration. Those include decreased urination, lethargy or inability to keep fluids down.
“While rare, rotavirus can be life-threatening in vulnerable populations, especially very young infants or children with underlying medical conditions,” Park told Fox News Digital.
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Prevention strategies
Given the lack of antiviral medications for rotavirus, doctors emphasize the importance of prevention, primarily the vaccine.
There are two rotavirus vaccines – Rotateq (a three-dose series) and Rotarix (a two-dose series). They are given starting at age 2 months as oral drops, not injections, according to Hoy.
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“It’s important to get the rotavirus vaccines on schedule, because these younger infants are at greatest risk if they get rotavirus,” he advised.
Other recommended prevention methods include handwashing with soap and water.
Every day we’re faced with a zillion small choices: Go to sleep early, or watch one more episode of that Netflix drama. Call an old friend to catch up, or cruise social media. Of course, no single action will guarantee a long, healthy life or doom you to an early grave. But those little daily decisions do add up, and over the long term they can make a difference when it comes to both your longevity and your health span, the amount of life spent in relatively good health.
Scroll through this theoretical “day in the life” and select the option that best fits your typical day. Not every situation will apply perfectly, but think about which choice you’d be most likely to make. This isn’t a formal scientific assessment. The goal here isn’t to assign you a “good” or “bad” score, but to help you understand the central factors that shape the way we age and how long we live.
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