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‘Worst kind of setup for the Fed’: What Wall Street is saying about the central bank’s next rate decision

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‘Worst kind of setup for the Fed’: What Wall Street is saying about the central bank’s next rate decision

Weak labor market data overshadowed a sticky inflation print last week, keeping investor expectations intact that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its policy meeting on Wednesday.

Government data released Thursday showed that consumer prices rose 0.4% in August from the previous month, an uptick from July’s 0.2% increase. Meanwhile, separate data showed weekly jobless claims rising to 263,000 — the highest in nearly four years, up from a revised 236,000 the prior week.

The Fed weighs its dual mandate of full employment and price stability when deciding whether to change interest rates. Given the dynamic of a slowing jobs market coupled with sticky price increases, Wall Street strategists told Yahoo Finance that the Fed has a complicated decision ahead.

“It’s the worst kind of setup for the Fed,” Claudia Sahm, New Century Advisors chief economist and former Federal Reserve Board economist, told Yahoo Finance. “They will not be cutting because we have good news on inflation. They’ll be cutting because we have bad news on employment.”

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a press conference after the central bank’s July meeting. The central bank is widely expected to cut interest rates next week. (Reuters/Jonathan Ernst/File Photo) · Reuters / Reuters

Sahm expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points during its two-day meeting this week. She noted, though, that inflation is “still too firm.”

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Other strategists agreed: “Inflation is still elevated. It’s been elevated, and it’s moving in the wrong direction right now,” Collin Martin, fixed income strategist at Schwab Center for Financial Research, told Yahoo Finance.

Sticky inflation may keep the Fed cautious after September, RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas said.

“Yes, you’re going to get your rate cut out there in trading land,” Brusuelas told Yahoo Finance. “But I have to tell you, the underlying tenor of the data doesn’t suggest that it’s a lock that you’re going to get three rate cuts before the end of the year.”

Read more: How jobs, inflation, and the Fed are all related

As of Friday, investors were pricing in a 76% probability of three rate cuts this year, according to the CME FedWatch, as the labor market shows increasing cracks.

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Thursday’s jobless claims data was the latest to underscore the slowdown. A sweeping jobs revision released earlier this week showed the US employed 911,000 fewer people between April 2024 and March 2025 than originally reported.

Still, the slowdown doesn’t appear to be pushing the economy over a cliff.

“We’re not getting this hard landing like collapse in the job market,” Economic Cycle Research Institute co-founder Lakshman Achuthan said. “This could get rough at some point … but it’s not yet.”

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Promising UK Penny Stocks To Watch In January 2026

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Promising UK Penny Stocks To Watch In January 2026
The UK market has recently faced challenges, with the FTSE 100 index experiencing declines due to weak trade data from China, highlighting global economic interdependencies. Despite these broader market pressures, investors may find intriguing opportunities in penny stocks—smaller or newer companies that can offer a mix of affordability and growth potential. While the term ‘penny stocks’ might seem outdated, their potential remains significant for those seeking financial strength and…
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Why Chime Financial Stock Was Music to Investor Ears in December | The Motley Fool

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Why Chime Financial Stock Was Music to Investor Ears in December | The Motley Fool

The company appears to be effectively serving its often-overlooked customer base.

The holiday month brought fintech Chime Financial (CHYM 3.13%) one of the best gifts a stock can receive — a substantial bump higher in price. Across December, Chime’s shares rose by more than 19%, lifted by a set of factors that included a recommendation upgrade from a prominent bank and a positive research note by an analyst who’s now tracking the company.

Good as gold

The bullish tone was set by that upgrade, which was made before market open on Dec. 1 by Goldman Sachs pundit Will Nance. According to his new evaluation, Chime stock is now a buy, up from Nance’s previous tag of neutral. The new price target is $27 per share.

Image source: Getty Images.

According to reports, the analyst’s move is based on the company’s new Chime Card, an innovative credit product that represents an evolution of the secured credit card (i.e., plastic that must be backed by a user’s actual funds).

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In Nance’s estimation, as a next-generation credit product, the Chime Card should earn more “take” (i.e., fees derived from use) and thus higher revenue and profitability for the company than many anticipate. The prognosticator wrote that “attach” rates — i.e., Chime customer uptake — could also be notably above current expectations.

On Dec. 11, a new Chime bull emerged. This is B. Riley analyst Hal Goetsch, who initiated coverage of the company’s stock with a buy recommendation. This was accompanied by a price target of $35 per share, which is well higher than even Nance’s very optimistic assessment.

Goetsch waxed bullish about Chime’s high growth potential, according to reports. He opined that the company is doing well servicing its target segment of customers traditionally shunned by established banks due to poor credit histories, among other perceived flaws. It has also cleverly partnered with lenders and other financial services providers to offer attractive products such as the Chime Card.

Chime Financial Stock Quote

Today’s Change

(-3.13%) $-0.87

Current Price

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$26.95

Executive shifts

Finally, Chime promoted no less than three of its executives to new positions. It announced in the middle of the month that former chief operating officer Mark Troughton had been named president, and Janelle Sallenave replaced him as chief operating officer (from chief experience officer). Vineet Mehra, meanwhile, became chief growth officer; previously, he was chief marketing officer.

All three appointments, announced in the middle of the month, were effective immediately.

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As the year came to a close, it was apparent that the company had executives who were eager to keep contributing to its success. That, combined with those bullish analyst notes and the somewhat under-the-radar success story that the Chime Card appears to be, makes this fintech’s stock well worth watching. This is one of the more innovative young businesses in the financial sector at present.

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Mis-Sold Car Finance Explained: What UK Drivers Should Know

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Mis-Sold Car Finance Explained: What UK Drivers Should Know
Car finance is now one of the most popular ways in which drivers purchase their vehicles in the UK. RICHMOND PARK, BOURNEMOUTH / ACCESS Newswire / January 5, 2026 / In particular, Personal Contract Purchase (PCP) and Hire Purchase (HP) agreements …
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