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‘Worst kind of setup for the Fed’: What Wall Street is saying about the central bank’s next rate decision

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‘Worst kind of setup for the Fed’: What Wall Street is saying about the central bank’s next rate decision

Weak labor market data overshadowed a sticky inflation print last week, keeping investor expectations intact that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its policy meeting on Wednesday.

Government data released Thursday showed that consumer prices rose 0.4% in August from the previous month, an uptick from July’s 0.2% increase. Meanwhile, separate data showed weekly jobless claims rising to 263,000 — the highest in nearly four years, up from a revised 236,000 the prior week.

The Fed weighs its dual mandate of full employment and price stability when deciding whether to change interest rates. Given the dynamic of a slowing jobs market coupled with sticky price increases, Wall Street strategists told Yahoo Finance that the Fed has a complicated decision ahead.

“It’s the worst kind of setup for the Fed,” Claudia Sahm, New Century Advisors chief economist and former Federal Reserve Board economist, told Yahoo Finance. “They will not be cutting because we have good news on inflation. They’ll be cutting because we have bad news on employment.”

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a press conference after the central bank’s July meeting. The central bank is widely expected to cut interest rates next week. (Reuters/Jonathan Ernst/File Photo) · Reuters / Reuters

Sahm expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points during its two-day meeting this week. She noted, though, that inflation is “still too firm.”

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Other strategists agreed: “Inflation is still elevated. It’s been elevated, and it’s moving in the wrong direction right now,” Collin Martin, fixed income strategist at Schwab Center for Financial Research, told Yahoo Finance.

Sticky inflation may keep the Fed cautious after September, RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas said.

“Yes, you’re going to get your rate cut out there in trading land,” Brusuelas told Yahoo Finance. “But I have to tell you, the underlying tenor of the data doesn’t suggest that it’s a lock that you’re going to get three rate cuts before the end of the year.”

Read more: How jobs, inflation, and the Fed are all related

As of Friday, investors were pricing in a 76% probability of three rate cuts this year, according to the CME FedWatch, as the labor market shows increasing cracks.

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Thursday’s jobless claims data was the latest to underscore the slowdown. A sweeping jobs revision released earlier this week showed the US employed 911,000 fewer people between April 2024 and March 2025 than originally reported.

Still, the slowdown doesn’t appear to be pushing the economy over a cliff.

“We’re not getting this hard landing like collapse in the job market,” Economic Cycle Research Institute co-founder Lakshman Achuthan said. “This could get rough at some point … but it’s not yet.”

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Stamford Finance Students Wow Judges, Take Home Trophy in Regional CFA Competition – UConn Today

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Stamford Finance Students Wow Judges, Take Home Trophy in Regional CFA Competition – UConn Today

A tenacious team of finance majors, who sacrificed most of their winter break to prepare for the CFA Institute Research Challenge, took first place in that regional competition last week.

Students Hunter Baillargeon, Dylan Fischetto, Richard Opper, Philip Ochocinski and Rushit Chauhan were tasked with researching and analyzing a major utility company, and then producing a 10-page report about whether to buy, hold, or sell its stock. They chose to sell.

One of the CFA judges said both the team’s report and presentation were among the best he had seen in many years.

“As a team, we were thrilled our hard work paid off and our many hours of work allowed us to achieve what we did,’’ Baillargeon said. “What we accomplished couldn’t have been done without working with such a cohesive and collective unit.’’

“From a technical perspective, I realize how valuable true analysis is and the importance of looking where others don’t for a differentiated approach,’’ Baillargeon said.

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The first round of competition featured 24 college teams from the Stamford-Hartford-Providence region. The Stamford team, composed of seniors all of whom all participate in UConn’s Student Managed Fund program, received its first-place award Feb. 26 in a ceremony in Hartford. The team will advance to the East Coast competition later this month.

Stamford Finance Program is Robust

“The Stamford team’s advancement in this competition reflects not only the students’ exceptional talent and work ethic, but also the rigor and applied focus of the UConn finance curriculum,’’ said professor Yiming Qian, head of the Finance Department.

“Our Stamford campus hosts approximately 200 financial management majors. The Stamford program is a vital part of the School and continues to demonstrate outstanding strength,” she said.

Professors Steve Wilson and Jeff Bianchi, who combined have 75 years of experience in the investment industry, were the team’s advisers and were supported by academic director Katherine Pancak.

Wilson said the task of analyzing a utility is particularly complex because of the company’s structure and the regulatory environment in which it operates.

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“I believe the Stamford team stood out because of the depth of their research, and willingness to take a bold stand, including the decision to ‘go out on a limb’ and recommend selling the stock,’’ he said. “They didn’t ‘play it safe.’’’

“This clean-sweep was a true team effort. They were tireless throughout, and sleepless too often, but they never wavered from their desire to always dig deeper and uncover any information that would strengthen our investment case,’’ he said. “What a phenomenal job they did!’’

Competition in Hong Kong Is Ultimate Goal

The Stamford team will compete against Loyola, Canisius, Sacred Heart; Seton Hall, Villanova, St. Michaels, Western New England, University of Maine, Fordham and Penn State next. In total, some 8,000 students are expected to participate in various competitions worldwide, culminating in a championship round in Hong Kong in May.

Wilson said the financial industry is always welcoming of new talent. And when one of the judges told him that the Stamford team produced some of the best work that he’d seen in years, Wilson felt tremendous pride for the students.

“Finance is an open playing field. In investments, the best idea wins,’’ he said.

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Baillargeon said he will always appreciate the whole team’s dedication.

“What I’ll remember most is the help of our advisers and our cohesive, close-knit team where everyone pulled their weight,’’ Baillargeon said. “We put in long hours, did a tremendous amount of research, and collaborated well together. I hope when I enter the workforce I get to work with a team as committed as this one is.’’

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Board Advances Motion to Address LAHSA’s Failure to Pay Service Providers – Supervisor Lindsey P. Horvath

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Board Advances Motion to Address LAHSA’s Failure to Pay Service Providers – Supervisor Lindsey P. Horvath



Board Advances Motion to Address LAHSA’s Failure to Pay Service Providers – Supervisor Lindsey P. Horvath
















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Board Advances Motion to Address LAHSA’s Failure to Pay Service Providers


Board Advances Motion to Address LAHSA’s Failure to Pay Service Providers


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Supervisor Lindsey P. Horvath







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How “impact accounting” can integrate sustainability with finance

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How “impact accounting” can integrate sustainability with finance

Around three years ago, Charles Giancarlo, CEO of data platform Pure Storage, came back from Davos and asked his sustainability team to look into an idea he’d encountered at the meeting: Impact accounting, a method for integrating emissions and other externalities into company balance sheets. 

The idea had been slowly picking up adherents in Europe for around a decade, but Pure Storage, which rebranded this month to Everpure, would go on to become the first U.S. company to join the Value Balancing Alliance (VBA), a group of 30 or so companies developing the approach. Trellis checked in last week with Everpure and the VBA for an update.

How does impact accounting work?

At the heart of the approach are a set of “valuation factors,” developed by third-party experts, that are used to convert activity data for emissions, water use, air pollution and other externalities into dollar figures that can be integrated into balance sheets. In the case of emissions, for example, the VBA uses $220 per ton of carbon dioxide equivalent, a figure based on the estimated social impact of rising greenhouse gases levels. 

At Everpure, one long-term goal is to have cost centers be aware of the dollar impact of relevant externalities. After an initial focus on identifying and collecting the most material data, the team is now rolling out a dashboard containing several years of impact accounting numbers.

“It’s catered to different personas,” explained Adrienne Uphoff, Everpure’s ESG regulations and impact accounting manager. Finance was an initial use case, with product managers also on the roadmap. “You can compare it to financial numbers to really understand the impact intensity.”

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What value does the approach bring?

“The essence of impact accounting is that you’re translating all these different metrics in the sustainability space into the language the decision makers understand,” said Christian Heller, the VBA’s CEO. “Everyone understands what you’re talking about, and you get a sense of the magnitude of your impact and the risks and opportunities.”

This has allowed Everpure to calculate what Uphoff called the “environmental costs of goods sold” and to estimate the impact of circular strategies, such as refurbishing hardware. The analysis reveals “impact savings across the full value chain across five different environmental topics all in a single dollar unit,” she said. 

Analyses like that can then be shared with customers and used to distinguish Everpure from competitors. “The long-term winners in this space are going to be those that can perform against sustainability goals,” said Kathy Mulvany, Everpure’s global head of sustainability. “Impact accounting gives us a way to bring comparability, so companies can understand how they’re truly stacking up.”

What does it take to implement impact accounting?

A great deal of technical work goes into creating valuation factors, but the system is designed so that outside experts create the numbers and hand them to sustainability professionals for use. Still, not every company will have the in-house environmental data that is also needed. Many companies have been collecting emissions data for five years or more, for example, but detailed datasets for water use are less common.

Internal teams also need to be familiar with the concepts. “One of the key learnings from our impact accounting implementation is that the socialization curve is longer than you expect,” said Uphoff. “Attaching monetary values on externalities introduces new metrics and mental models, and that can naturally make people a little nervous at first. It takes time and dialogue for teams to build confidence in how to interpret this new lens on performance.” 

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What’s next?

In the early days of impact accounting, companies and consultancies worked independently on different methodologies. Now that work is coalescing, said Heller. The International Standards Organization will start work on a standard this summer, he added, and the VBA is having conversations with the IFRS Foundation, which creates international financial reporting standards.

The approach may also be integrated into mandatory disclosure standards. Heller noted that the European Union’s Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive mentions the potential benefits of companies putting a dollar figure on some environmental impacts. “It’s the next evolutionary step of any kind of sustainability disclosure regulations,” he said.

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