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‘Worst kind of setup for the Fed’: What Wall Street is saying about the central bank’s next rate decision

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‘Worst kind of setup for the Fed’: What Wall Street is saying about the central bank’s next rate decision

Weak labor market data overshadowed a sticky inflation print last week, keeping investor expectations intact that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its policy meeting on Wednesday.

Government data released Thursday showed that consumer prices rose 0.4% in August from the previous month, an uptick from July’s 0.2% increase. Meanwhile, separate data showed weekly jobless claims rising to 263,000 — the highest in nearly four years, up from a revised 236,000 the prior week.

The Fed weighs its dual mandate of full employment and price stability when deciding whether to change interest rates. Given the dynamic of a slowing jobs market coupled with sticky price increases, Wall Street strategists told Yahoo Finance that the Fed has a complicated decision ahead.

“It’s the worst kind of setup for the Fed,” Claudia Sahm, New Century Advisors chief economist and former Federal Reserve Board economist, told Yahoo Finance. “They will not be cutting because we have good news on inflation. They’ll be cutting because we have bad news on employment.”

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a press conference after the central bank’s July meeting. The central bank is widely expected to cut interest rates next week. (Reuters/Jonathan Ernst/File Photo) · Reuters / Reuters

Sahm expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points during its two-day meeting this week. She noted, though, that inflation is “still too firm.”

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Other strategists agreed: “Inflation is still elevated. It’s been elevated, and it’s moving in the wrong direction right now,” Collin Martin, fixed income strategist at Schwab Center for Financial Research, told Yahoo Finance.

Sticky inflation may keep the Fed cautious after September, RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas said.

“Yes, you’re going to get your rate cut out there in trading land,” Brusuelas told Yahoo Finance. “But I have to tell you, the underlying tenor of the data doesn’t suggest that it’s a lock that you’re going to get three rate cuts before the end of the year.”

Read more: How jobs, inflation, and the Fed are all related

As of Friday, investors were pricing in a 76% probability of three rate cuts this year, according to the CME FedWatch, as the labor market shows increasing cracks.

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Thursday’s jobless claims data was the latest to underscore the slowdown. A sweeping jobs revision released earlier this week showed the US employed 911,000 fewer people between April 2024 and March 2025 than originally reported.

Still, the slowdown doesn’t appear to be pushing the economy over a cliff.

“We’re not getting this hard landing like collapse in the job market,” Economic Cycle Research Institute co-founder Lakshman Achuthan said. “This could get rough at some point … but it’s not yet.”

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3 stocks to watch in 2026

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3 stocks to watch in 2026
Looking to add some new stocks to your portfolio? Gibbens Capital president and chief investment officer Mark Gibbens has three suggestions. Find out what they are in the video above. To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Market Domination.
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Hong Kong to boost tech and finance services integration amid AI boom: Paul Chan

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Hong Kong to boost tech and finance services integration amid AI boom: Paul Chan

Hong Kong’s finance chief has pledged to further integrate financial services with technology innovation to foster a thriving ecosystem, following a surge in investor interest in artificial intelligence-related stocks during the first trading day of the year.

Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po on Sunday also emphasised Hong Kong’s role as an international capital market in fuelling the growth of frontier mainland Chinese tech firms with the city’s funding and liquidity.

“We welcome these enterprises to list and raise capital in Hong Kong and also encourage them to settle in the city to establish research and development (R&D) centres, transform their research outcomes, and set up advanced manufacturing facilities,” Chan said on his weekly blog.

“We support them in establishing regional or international headquarters in Hong Kong to reach international markets and strategically expand across Southeast Asia and the globe.”

The Hang Seng Index kicked off 2026 with a bang, surging over 700 points – a 2.8 per cent jump that marked its strongest opening since 2013.

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Innovation and technology giants spearheaded the rally, with the Hang Seng Tech Index soaring 4 per cent as investor appetite for AI-related stocks reached a fever pitch.

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Financial resolutions for the New Year to help you make the most of your money

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Financial resolutions for the New Year to help you make the most of your money

It’s the time of year where optimism is running high. We don’t need to be the person we were last year, we can be a shiny new version of ourselves, who is good with money and on track in every corner of our finances. Sadly, our positive outlook doesn’t always last, but with 63% of people making financial resolutions this year, it’s a chance to turn things around.

The key is to make the right resolutions, so here are a few tips to help you make the most of your money in 2026.

The problems that you know about already will spring to mind first.

Research by Hargreaves Lansdown revealed that renters, for example, are the most likely to say they want to spend less – and 23% of them said this was one of their resolutions for 2026. We know rental incomes are more stretched than any others, and on average they have £39 left at the end of the month, so it’s easy to see why they want to cut back.

However, they also struggle in all sorts of areas of their finances. So, for example, fewer than a third are on track with their pension. However, only 11% of them say they want to boost their pension this year.

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Read more: The cost of staying loyal to your high street bank

It shows that your first resolution should always be to get a better picture of your overall finances – including using a pensions calculator to see whether you’re on track for retirement.

It’s only when you have a full picture that you can see what you need to prioritise.

With 63% of people making financial resolutions this year, it’s a chance to turn things around. · Mint Images via Getty Images

Drawing up a budget is boring, and it may not feel like you’re achieving anything, but, like digging the foundations of a building, if you want to build something robust you can’t skip this step.

Make a list of everything coming in and everything you’re spending. Your current account app and the apps of the companies you pay bills to will have the details you need, and a budgeting app makes it easy to plug all the details in.

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From there, consider where you can cut back to free up a chunk of money every month to fund your resolutions.

Younger people, aged 18-34, are particularly likely to fall into this trap. The research showed that 40% wanted to save more, 22% to get on top of their finances, 21% to spend less, 19% to pay more into investments, 19% to start investing, 15% to pay off debts and 14% to put more into their pension.

Given that at the start of your career, money tends to be tighter anyway, there’s a real risk that by trying to do so much, you might fall short on all fronts.

It helps to set yourself one realistic goal at a time.

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