Finance
What to expect for sustainable finance in 2024
- Geopolitical changes are predicted to have a big impact on the growth of green finance in 2024 but, while some markets may experience a setback, others are predicted to grow
- In order to ramp up the volume of investments in green and other sustainable projects, transparency, scrutiny and accessibility remain paramount
- New and improved regulatory frameworks can help prevent greenwashing, and make the market more attractive for investors
2023 wasn’t exactly a stellar year for some segments of the sustainable finance market. According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance, global sustainable finance issuance volumes reached $1.3tn last year, down from $1.55tn in 2022 and down on the $1.8tn peak seen in 2021.
While green bond issuance saw an 11 per cent increase year on year in 2023, according to ING’s Sustainable Finance Pulse, sustainability-linked bond issuance fell 24 per cent and sustainability-linked loan issuance fell 55 per cent.
“It’s clear that the markets have seen two years of total volume decline and, at the start of the year, a lot of people were still quite positive that 2023 would bring growth — well, that didn’t happen and we’ve seen that reflected also in sustainability-linked products,” says Jacomijn Vels, global head of sustainable finance at ING.
ING attributes last year’s faltering demand for sustainable finance debt to investors reassessing the market, greenwashing concerns and the need for greater regulatory clarity. While demand for sustainable finance products remains strong, ING says investors and lenders will continue to seek out “higher quality” structures.
ING researchers forecast global ESG bond supply of €820bn this year, compared to an estimated €815bn for the end of last year, with 40 per cent of total issuance expected to be in euros.
However, Vels says it is not easy to predict where the sustainable finance markets will go in 2024. “American elections are more likely to be a negative than a positive for sustainable financing. The nearer you get to the elections, the more corporate clients are going to think about what the anti-ESG sentiment might do to issuing debt. That’s the region I’m most uncertain about.”
In the US, Donald Trump has added his voice to Republicans condemning ESG investment, which is expected to be a major election issue in the run-up to the presidential race later this year. The FT reported last year that at least 49 “anti-ESG” bills were introduced across the US and investors such as BlackRock have been accused of not honouring their fiduciary duty by applying ESG to their investment decisions.
Nick Robins, professor in practice for sustainable finance at the London School of Economics, says the ESG backlash, which succeeded, in part, in steering firms away from investing their funds in sustainable projects for fear it would deliver fewer returns, has had an impact in some regions more than others. “Within the financial realm, green finance is no more a sort of pure technical matter, but a highly politicised topic within the market, especially in jurisdictions like the US,” he says.
Underpinning the ESG backlash is this debate as to whether investment managers and other institutional investors are permitted or even required to consider ESG issues when discharging their duties to their end clients or beneficiaries. Many critics believe ESG investing goes against managers’ main duty, which is to make money for investors.
Robins says the US presidential elections bring a level of uncertainty in the direction the US will take with regards to regulation and whether local institutions still have the “courage” to continue making sustainability-linked investments.
Emerging economies a bright spot
However, there is positive growth momentum in other parts of the world. In the Asia-Pacific region, ING still expects to see healthy growth. Last year, the bank hired sustainable finance experts in Australia and South Korea with the view to growing its business in the area. “We’re seeing the traction start to come up in Apac,” says Vels, adding that Asia is a difficult region given the issues it faces in terms of the green transition.
Many Asian economies are still heavily reliant on fossil fuels and are not expected to transition as quickly to net zero as other regions such as Europe where regulation and investment is more aligned with ‘greening’ the economy.
This year, Robins foresees an increase in the volume of investments in so-called emerging economies. “2023 was the year in which sustainable finance and green finance really landed in India, and I believe that the trend will continue this year. Also in Brazil, which in many ways has been a real pioneer in these sectors of the market, we expect to see more growth in 2024.”
Transparency and accessibility
To meet the goals set out by the Paris Agreement, aimed at containing global warming to below a 1.5C rise since pre-industrial levels, companies across sectors need to scale up their efforts to decarbonise their business. Green finance plays an important role in the transition, but certain structures such as green loans haven’t always been as popular with investors compared to sustainability-linked loans.
Historically, green loans haven’t proliferated because a lot of borrowers didn’t want to be restricted in the use that they make of the proceeds, says Arash Mojabi, ING’s UK lead for sustainable finance. “They didn’t yet have the kind of financing identified to make it worth doing a separate green loan.”
Greater transparency on the requirements attached to green bonds and loans, and sustainability-linked loans, is fundamental to driving greater investor demand in the market.
Ingrid Holmes, executive director at the Green Finance Institute, says the emergence of green taxonomies, as well as transition plans, is introducing a level of scrutiny around green claims from clients and from financial institutions, which will drive up quality, but also build a better understanding of what actually needs to be financed.
“Banks have done a good job integrating climate into their risk management systems, but their focus now needs to shift to how to better create green deals, because the finance system is only going to be as green as the economy is,” she says.
Corporate investors may ask why they can’t just opt for a ‘plain vanilla’ loan, rather than having to undertake the effort needed for a sustainability-linked loan, which must be clearly tied to verifiable and robust key performance indicators.
However, Mojabi says that on the sustainability-linked side, clients have set 2030 targets, so it is about holding them accountable. “On the flip side, we’ve made a long-term commitment to be net zero by 2050, so our portfolios have to transition. We need to quickly understand who’s on that path with us, because the most disruptive thing would be to have to sell swathes of our portfolio to meet those targets.”
How is regulation impacting green finance?
In spite of the huge steps forward that have been made in green finance, the risk of greenwashing remains a concern for clients, financial institutions and regulators alike. Last year, the European parliament approved voluntary standards for companies wanting to use the “European green bond label”. As Sustainable Views reported, the standards require issuers to disclose “considerable information” on use of proceeds with at least 85 per cent of these being allocated to activities covered by the EU sustainable finance taxonomy.
Last year’s release of the sustainability-linked loan principles also helped the market by providing direction on what you should do to make sure you have ambitious and relevant KPIs, says Vels of ING. “It also provides the guidance that you need to have them [KPIs] checked and validated externally for all borrowers. That has actually helped in structuring sustainable loans.”
The introduction of regulations like the EU’s Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive should allow banks to more transparently engage with their clients on KPIs, she adds. “This transparency hopefully will also bring us more intelligence in terms of what capex [capital expenditure] is necessary for our clients to fund the transition. In the end, regulation will help us grow the market and, hopefully, also our clients in knowing where to invest.”
But Vels says regulation should not just be about disclosure, but also provide tools to stimulate investment in the transition. “My fear is that the regulation on the disclosure side will grow and we won’t get the stimulus next to it,” she says.
Finance
Economic jitters prompt Breckenridge Town Council to reconsider its financial outlook
Citing fears that an impending dry summer will further erode sales tax revenue, Breckenridge town officials requested another review of the town’s annual budget.
Following a financial report at a meeting Tuesday, March 10, council member Dick Carleton said he wanted to revisit financial projections for the remainder of the year, anticipating potentially more of an economic downturn than initially expected.
“I feel a need to be more conservative in our forecast,” Carleton said.
Carleton requested town finance staff return to a council meeting before the summer — when next year’s budgets must be approved — with five-year market projections that he believes would more accurately predict market trends. Carleton said both national and local economic trends worry him. He suggested the council consider further reducing town operational expenses and consider investing in projects that bolster sales tax revenue.
“I’m personally becoming increasingly concerned with the economy going forward nationally, as well as the resort and ski town economy locally,” Carleton said. “I’m becoming increasingly more uncomfortable with these numbers. … I feel a need to reduce expenses and create some room to invest more on the revenue side.”
Finance director Laurie Best said reports from January and February show Breckenridge’s 2026 revenue forecast remains in line with last year’s estimates.
“So far, two months in, I think we’re going to be okay, but I think there’s a lot of unknown,” Best said.
Best agreed to return to council again with five-year projections using that more recently collected data. She noted the town’s operational budget sits at around $35-36 million.
“It is important for us to talk about what’s in the operational expenses, because that’s our general fund budget, which is essentially what we run the town on.”
Carleton again suggested the council reconsider its upcoming operational budget as soon as possible. He said he feels a pressing need to ensure the town’s budget will allow it to remain competitive with other tourism and resort economies in the region. Given that this year’s historically warm winter has already hampered Colorado’s tourism industry, Carleton said the town should consider reconfiguring its upcoming budget to permit more investments in tourism and guest experiences.
“I’m feeling a great urgency to take a look at it,” Carleton said of the town’s upcoming annual budget.
“I think we need to make some investments in guest-facing capital expenditures,” he said. “We haven’t done a lot to increase the guest experience in years, and I’m afraid if we keep sitting back, we’re going to lose market share.”
Finance
Inside the data center financing boom — and the teams Wall Street is building to win it
Wall Street banks are racing to finance AI data centers, as deals swell into the tens of billions, forcing a rethink of how these projects are funded.
“If you can’t invest a billion dollars, we don’t even want to talk to you,” said Adam Lewis, a managing director at Citizens, a regional lender that has emerged as a key player in the sector. Just a few years ago, a $100 million financing was a milestone; today, it’s a rounding error.
For Lewis, that billion-dollar floor reflects the rising cost of land and electricity, which has pushed these projects beyond the limits of traditional commercial real estate loans and into the realm of large-scale infrastructure finance.
As deal values surge, banks are focused on seizing what could be Wall Street’s largest-ever financing opportunity. Over the past two years, lenders including Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan have formed integrated teams across disciplines to become fluent in the mechanics of how data centers are actually constructed.
Citigroup estimates the buildout could require $3 trillion by 2030, according to an internal memo sent in late February by leaders of the firm’s investment banking unit. In the memo, senior bankers from across investment banking, corporate banking, and financing said that Citi would establish a dedicated AI infrastructure group to break through internal silos and evaluate “all pockets of capital” as deals grow larger and more complex.
The sheer scale of the AI buildout is beginning to exhaust the cash reserves of the world’s largest tech giants. While hyperscalers cannot afford to fall behind in the infrastructure race, the costs have become too great to carry on their own balance sheets. To Fred Turpin, the global chair of investment banking at JPMorgan, this represents the “largest investment cycle in the history of capitalism.”
To bridge that gap, Turpin helped organize a firmwide working group that pairs technology and energy experts with bankers versed in private capital markets. The approach allows the bank to jump-start projects using its own balance sheet before connecting them to “long-term” capital from sovereign wealth funds, pension funds, and dedicated infrastructure investors looking for stable, generational returns.
Integrated teams
To put together the unprecedented amount of money to build AI infrastructure, bankers are drawing on multiple sources of capital, from bank loans and bonds to private credit and institutional investors, often assembled into a single structure from the outset.
At Goldman Sachs, the shift has taken shape inside its Capital Solutions Group, a unit formed last year to bring together origination, structuring, and capital distribution as deal sizes and complexity have grown. The group pulls in bankers from across investment-grade and high-yield debt, infrastructure and real estate financing, and equity capital markets, allowing the firm to consider multiple financing options at once.
“We’re elbow to elbow with the bankers that cover sponsors so that we can ensure a direct line between our origination efforts and distribution efforts to financial sponsors,” said John Greenwood, a partner who serves as global head of the infrastructure and real asset finance group within Capital Solutions.
Goldman Sachs
At Morgan Stanley, Richard Myers and William Graham, two top investment bankers, are members of a data-center-focused task force launched in 2024. Last year, Myers and his team arranged a $2.6 billion financing for CoreWeave that used Nvidia chips as collateral. They later pioneered a first-of-its-kind $27 billion bond deal for a joint venture between Meta and Blue Owl. That work increasingly requires bringing together specialists from across the bank — from power and project finance to real estate — to arrange multiple sources of capital.
And Graham, the firm’s global cohead of leveraged finance, has led a $3.2 billion senior secured note offering for TeraWulf and a $2.35 billion raise for Applied Digital — two specialized infrastructure firms that have pivoted from crypto mining to hosting the high-density power loads required for AI.
New vocabulary
Unlike traditional corporate financings, data centers sit at the intersection of real estate, energy, and technology, which means bankers have to weigh not just financial risk — but whether a project can actually be built, powered, and brought online as planned. Bankers said they’ve had to become fluent in a new language — the lexicon behind how these massive projects are built.
“We can read electrical diagrams and mechanical diagrams and understand land use permits and power configurations,” said Lewis, the managing director at Citizens, whose team of more than 30 bankers focuses on advising, structuring, and financing data center projects. Bankers are now required to understand what could delay or derail a project, and to give investors confidence that it will actually come online as planned.
“Most of us just assume it happens magically in some ephemeral thing called the cloud,” said Scott Wilcoxen, who leads digital infrastructure investment banking at JPMorgan. “But physically, what that actually means is there is effectively an unbroken physical connection between individual users and the data sources.”
This technical knowledge is ever more important as bankers say projects are increasingly constrained by limits on power, equipment, and labor. But those constraints don’t appear to be cooling demand, raising questions about how far the buildout can stretch — and what it will take to sustain it.
Goldman’s Greenwood noted that in a recent meeting with a client, someone in the room used a surprising adjective: “terrestrial.”
“I was in a meeting last week, and they were talking about terrestrial data centers,” he said, suggesting the next frontier could be “on the bottom of the sea, or in space.”
Finance
Financing Innovations in Climate Mobility
The accelerating impacts of climate change on human mobility demand coordinated action across sectors. Despite some progress, last year’s sharp cuts to development, humanitarian, climate, and migration funding for developing countries have worsened many scenarios. Donor nations and private sector investors must step up — but what does meaningful and innovative investment in climate mobility look like?
How can donor support be better used to back fit‑for‑purpose measures across the “spectrum of climate mobility”, prevent displacement where possible, strengthen the resilience of those who stay, and enable safe, dignified, and voluntary mobility when needed? How can investment protect well‑being, reduce risk, and transform climate mobility into an opportunity for more resilient, equitable societies?
Join Carnegie’s Sustainability, Climate, and Geopolitics program for a panel discussion moderated by Alejandro Martin Rodriguez featuring Hon. Senator Dr. Joyelle Clarke, Dilpreet Sidhu, and Vel Gnanendran, bringing together climate, mobility, and finance experts, as well as national and city government leaders, to discuss the role that innovative financing can play in promoting climate mobility solutions that can improve the resilience and adaptation capabilities of societies. More speakers will be announced soon.
Lunch will be served from 12:00pm – 12:30 pm. The panel will take place from 12:30 pm – 2:o0 pm.
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