Finance
Uncertainty about rate cuts leaves stock market vulnerable to sharp swings | Finance & Commerce
NEW YORK — For more than a year, the U.S. stock market went in mostly one direction, up, and in mostly one manner, quietly. A bonanza around artificial-intelligence technology helped drive Big Tech stocks higher, while other areas of the market held up amid rising hopes for coming cuts to interest rates by the Federal Reserve.
Last month the S&P 500 suffered its worst one-day loss since 2022. A measure of fear among investors in U.S. stocks also hit 19.4, its highest level since a blip above 21 in April, the last time waves caused a ripple in the placid market’s surface. It averaged 15.9 from the start of 2023 until July.
Some of the turbulence came on fears that profit reports for Big Tech stocks won’t be able to clear the immensely high expectations set for them after their prices surged so high.
It also was a result of a stock market finally shifting to a “show me” phase, now that cuts to interest rates seem imminent, according to Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.
Instead of rising simply on hopes that the Fed will cut its main interest rate from the highest level in two decades, stocks will now move based in part on the pace and size of those potential cuts. The nearly unanimous expectation among traders is that the Fed will begin cutting in September.
If the Fed’s rate-cutting campaign proves slower or less deep than traders expect, investors could be disappointed. The risk for that is high, given forecasts by many traders that the Fed will cut its main interest rate by 1.50 percentage points over the next year. That’s much faster than the quarterly cuts to rates that Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle was predicting recently, for example.
The Fed has been holding its federal funds rate at a range of 5.25% to 5.50% for roughly a year.
Inflation could prove more resistant to dropping back to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target than many investors expect, which could force the Fed to cut rates more slowly. Only a few months ago several discouraging reports on inflation raised doubts about whether any cuts to rates would arrive in 2024.
Central banks around the world are also making moves, such as the Bank of Japan’s upward bias on rates while other central banks going the opposite way. That’s not to mention possible swings for the market that could arise because of the upcoming U.S. election.
“Bouts of volatility like we’ve seen are a defining feature of the new macro and market regime, we think,” say Jean Boivin and other strategists at BlackRock Investment Institute.
Finance
Banks Could Favor A Higher XRP Price, Finance Expert Says
XRP has continued to trade lower as crypto prices weaken across the board, with the total market shedding more than $1.3 trillion since October.
During the past three months, XRP has dropped more than 30%, keeping pressure on sentiment even as some commentators argue the token’s purpose goes far beyond short-term price moves.
Retail Vs. Institutional Viewpoint
According to health and finance commentator Dr. Camila Stevenson, much of the debate around XRP misses how large financial players judge settlement tools.
Everyday traders tend to focus on charts and quick exits. Banks do not. They look at whether a system can handle stress, move large sums, and keep working when conditions worsen. Stevenson compared it to infrastructure testing, where strength and capacity matter more than the initial cost.
XRP Was Built For Flows
Based on reports from her recent video discussion, XRP was structured to act as a bridge for moving value, not as a speculative chip. With a fixed supply, the token cannot expand in quantity to meet higher transaction demand.
Stevenson said that leaves price as the only way to support larger volumes. Analyst XFinanceBull echoed this view, encouraging market watchers to think in terms of flows rather than daily price action. Price Alone Does Not Prove Use
Even so, market behavior still plays a major role. XRP trades in open markets, and speculation continues to influence price direction.
A higher price may improve efficiency, but it does not guarantee adoption. Stevenson pointed out that many institutions position through custodians, OTC desks, and private agreements.
These transactions often happen quietly and may not show up as sharp moves on public charts. Sudden spikes during positioning, she warned, would suggest instability rather than healthy use. Why Higher Price Helps
Stevenson argued that banks moving billions would rather use fewer units that each represent more value. Fewer tokens can mean simpler settlement and less risk of slippage during busy periods.
Large financial systems tend to fail when money cannot move or when settlement slows, not when prices fall. In that context, a higher XRP price could support smoother transfers if volumes rise enough to test the system.Market Reality Remains Mixed
Despite the theory, clear proof of large-scale institutional demand remains limited. Regulation, liquidity depth, and reliable access still shape whether banks commit real volume.
XRP’s 33% slide over recent months shows how quickly sentiment can shift, even as long-term use cases are debated. The idea that banks prefer a higher XRP price rests on future scale, not current trading patterns.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Finance
Crunch Fitness, Petland could get a new neighbor at Pensacola Square
The Pensacola Square shopping plaza, which includes businesses such as Hobby Lobby, Books-A-Million and Crunch Fitness, may be getting a new tenant.
Alabama-based loan agency Regional Finance is looking to open its first Florida branch at unit 117 of Pensacola Square.
Regional Finance has over 350 branch locations across 19 U.S. states at this time, including Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi and North Carolina, and they provide a range of services to their clients, ranging from personal and auto repair loans to furniture, appliance and travel loans.
They submitted an application to the city in order to conduct alterations on the space, which is located next to Petland inside the plaza, and the plans are still under review by city officials at the time of writing.
moved onto a new chapter with the addition of national gym franchise Crunch Fitness, which is bringing flocks of people into the southern half of the plaza since it opened off North Davis Highway.
Plans submitted to the city of Pensacola show it could get a new tenant soon. However, this addition may not appeal to as many potential customers as its neighbors.
Regional Finance has over 350 branch locations across 19 U.S. states at this time, including Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi and North Carolina, and they provide a range of services to their clients, ranging from personal and auto repair loans to furniture, appliance and travel loans.
If the plans for their first Florida branch are approved, the loan agency will join a plaza with multiple popular businesses, including Hobby Lobby, Beall’s and Petland, that still has room to grow.
Trader Joe’s even showed interest in leasing a space inside the plaza at one point, according to a showcase of the property by Cushman & Wakefield.
Crunch Fitness, a gym that signed a 15-year lease for its space, is has help revitalizing interest in Pensacola Square, along with recent additions like Fuji Sushi & Grill & Hotspot as well as incoming tenants like Concentra.
Concentra, one of the top occupational health services providers in the U.S., will open inside the former home of Rainbow clothing.
While the address for the project is 6235 N. Davis Hwy, the alterations won’t be carried out on the Hobby Lobby and Books-A-Million chunk of the plaza.
That section was purchased last year for $7 million by Destiny Worship Center, a not-for-profit corporation based in Destin with locations in Crestview, Freeport, Fort Walton Beach and Panama City Beach but none in Pensacola, sparking concern that the businesses would be replaced by a new church.
Rob Bell, senior advisor and asset manager for Bellcore Commercial, who represented Destiny Worship Center in the sale, emphasized this week that it’s still unlikely Hobby Lobby will leave the plaza anytime soon because they still hold a long-term lease inside the building.
Finance
State aims to reclaim $850K from campaign finance vendor
OKLAHOMA CITY (KFOR) — The state is now looking to recoup around $850,000 from a company they said didn’t meet deadlines to create a campaign finance website.
It’s The Guardian and was supposed to be up and running in October, but that didn’t happen. The Guardian is the name of the state’s online campaign finance reporting system.
“They were unable to deliver a compliant system,” said Ethics Commission Executive Director Leeanne Bruce Boone during their meeting on Friday.
The company at the center of it all is RFD and Associates, based in Austin, Texas. They were hired in December 2024 to begin the project of creating The Guardian 2.0.
The previous company, according to the commission, was with Civix. However, problems arose between the state and that company, so they had to shift and find a new vendor.
The commission appropriated around $2.2 million for the endeavor.
Months went by, and according to the commission’s timeline, deadlines were missed altogether.
Dates in June were missed, and in August, the company received a warning from the Ethics Commission. The Office of Management and Enterprise Services (OMES) had to get involved in October and conduct an independent technical assessment.
The October date was proposed by the company, but it wasn’t met. In November, a formal notice of system failures and vendor non-compliance was noted.
“None of the milestones were met,” said Bruce Boone during the meeting. “Extensive corrective steps over many months. Written warnings were sent.”
At the Friday meeting, the commission voted to cut the contract with the company, and a contract with the previous one was then sent out.
“Terminate the contract and proceed with legal action,” said Bruce Boone.
Bruce Boone said that in total $850,000 was actually spent throughout this process on RFD. The new contract with Civix, she said, is estimated to cost over $230,000 and should last for three years. The effort is needed ahead of the 2026 election.
Now the commission has decided to bring in the Attorney General’s Office to see if they can get the money back.
“I take very seriously my role to ensure that taxpayer dollars are spent fairly and appropriately,” AG Drummond said in a statement. “My office stands ready to take legal action to recover damages, hold those responsible accountable, and work with the Ethics Commission to ensure the public has a reliable means to access campaign finance reports.”
News 4 attempted to get a statement out of the Chief Operating Officer of RFD and Associates, who had been in the meeting but quickly left after the commission voted.
“No comment,” said COO Scott Glover.
What would you say to taxpayers about that?
In response, he said, “I don’t agree with the ethics commission’s decision. That’s all I have to say.”
The Guardian had been delayed by several months, but the commission did respond appropriately and timely manner to requests made for documents.
The Guardian was back online Friday afternoon.
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