Finance
This week in Bidenomics: Uh-oh, reflation
Is the dragon slain? Or just wounded?
Inflation has been the scourge of the economy for the last three years. It spiked from a benign 1.4% when President Biden took office in 2021 to a searing 9% some 18 months later. The Federal Reserve took aim with speedy interest rate hikes, and it seemed to work. By September, inflation was down to 2.4%, almost in the normal zone.
Then, an upward blip. The latest data shows inflation ticked back up to 2.6% in October. That could be a spot on the X-ray that turns out to be nothing. Or it could signal that inflation is making a comeback, which would scramble the outlook for interest rates, financial markets, and the policies of the incoming Trump administration.
The inflation uptick in October wasn’t a fluke based on hurricanes or other one-time anomalies. Most important goods and services categories rose, including food, energy, rent, and vehicles. This came one month after the Fed basically declared victory over inflation. In September, the Fed reversed monetary policy and started cutting interest rates, signaling that the time had come to worry more about keeping growth humming than about getting prices down.
The Fed is staying the course for now. It cut short-term rates again on Nov. 14 and may do so again at its next policy meeting in December. But the odds of more rate cuts are dropping, with policymakers waiting for more lab results in the form of forthcoming inflation data.
“Inflation might soon be front-page news again,” Capital Economics announced in a Nov. 13 analysis. The forecasting firm argues that the currently inflationary trend is OK, but the future outlook is more worrisome — in large part because of what Donald Trump plans to do once he takes office next January.
At least two elements of Trump’s agenda are inflationary: new tariffs on imports and the mass deportation of undocumented migrants. Tariffs are taxes that raise the cost of imported goods directly. Deporting migrants would reduce the size of the labor force, especially targeting lower-wage workers. Replacing them with workers who might demand higher pay — or with costly machines — would raise costs one way or another, with producers passing as much as they could on to consumers.
A third inflation concern is Trump’s desire to cut taxes further, which can have a stimulus effect by putting more money in people’s pockets, boosting spending and demand and sometimes leading to higher prices.
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“Given all that President-elect Trump has promised to do quickly — such as hike tariffs, cut taxes further and slash immigration — one can easily foresee a re-acceleration of inflation next year,” Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist at Economic Outlook Group, wrote on Nov. 13. “The Federal Reserve is now in a real quandary.”
Finance
How gas prices, oil imports could be hit by Trump tariffs
President Donald Trump is set to impose tariffs on oil (CL=F, BZ=F) imports from Canada and Mexico starting February 1, potentially raising US gasoline (RB=F) prices by $0.40 to $0.70 per gallon.
Yahoo Finance senior business reporter Ines Ferré explains that analysts are closely watching whether oil will be exempt from the tariffs, underlining that energy giants Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) are already struggling with low refining profits.
Independent refiner Valero (VLO) predicts a 10% drop in oil refinery throughput capacity if tariffs are enacted.
To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Wealth here.
This post was written by Josh Lynch
Finance
Raymond James Financial Inc (RJF) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Record Revenues and …
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Net Revenue: Record $3.54 billion for the first fiscal quarter.
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Net Income: $599 million available to common shareholders.
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Earnings Per Share (EPS): Record $2.86 per diluted share.
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Adjusted Net Income: $614 million or $2.93 per diluted share, excluding acquisition-related expenses.
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Return on Common Equity: Annualized 20.4%.
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Adjusted Return on Tangible Common Equity: Annualized 24.6%.
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Client Assets Under Administration: Increased 14% year over year to $1.56 trillion.
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Private Client Group Assets: Record $877 billion.
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Financial Assets Under Management: Nearly unchanged at $244 billion.
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Domestic Net New Assets: $14 billion, representing a 4% annualized growth rate.
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Recruitment: Financial advisers with $318 million of trailing 12-month production and $51 billion of client assets recruited over the past 12 months.
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Cash Sweep and Enhanced Savings Balances: $59.7 billion, a 3% increase over the previous quarter.
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Bank Loans: Grew 3% to a record $47.2 billion.
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Private Client Group Pretax Income: $462 million on record net revenue of $2.55 billion.
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Capital Markets Net Revenue: $480 million with a pretax income of $74 million.
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Asset Management Pretax Income: Record $125 million on record net revenues of $294 million.
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Bank Segment Net Revenue: $425 million with a pretax income of $118 million.
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Compensation Expense: $2.27 billion with a total compensation ratio of 64.2%.
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Non-Compensation Expenses: $516 million, a 5% sequential decrease.
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Pretax Margin: 21.2% with an adjusted pretax margin of 21.7%.
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Total Assets: $82.3 billion, a 1% sequential decline.
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Effective Tax Rate: 19.9% for the quarter.
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Dividend Increase: 11% to $0.50 per share.
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Stock Repurchase Authorization: Up to $1.5 billion.
Release Date: January 29, 2025
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
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Raymond James Financial Inc (NYSE:RJF) achieved record net revenues of $3.54 billion for the first fiscal quarter, showcasing the strength of its diverse and complementary businesses.
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The firm reported a strong annualized return on common equity of 20.4% and an annualized adjusted return on tangible common equity of 24.6%.
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Total client assets under administration increased 14% year over year to $1.56 trillion, indicating robust growth in client assets.
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The Private Client Group generated pretax income of $462 million on record quarterly net revenue of $2.55 billion, driven by higher PCG assets under administration.
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Raymond James Financial Inc (NYSE:RJF) has a strong recruiting pipeline, with financial advisers bringing approximately $318 million of trailing 12-month production and $51 billion of client assets to the firm over the past year.
Finance
Voya Financial declares common and preferred stock dividends
NEW YORK, January 30, 2025–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Voya Financial, Inc. (NYSE: VOYA) announced today that its board of directors has declared a common stock dividend of $0.45 per share for the first quarter of 2025. The common stock dividend is payable on March 27, 2025, to shareholders of record as of Feb. 25, 2025.
Additionally, Voya’s board declared a semi-annual dividend of $38.79 per share on the company’s Series A 7.758% fixed-rate reset non-cumulative preferred stock (the “Series A Preferred Stock”). The board also declared a quarterly dividend of $13.3750 per share on the company’s Series B 5.35% fixed-rate reset non-cumulative preferred stock (the “Series B Preferred Stock”), equivalent to $0.334375 per depositary share, each of which represents a 1/40th ownership interest in a share of Series B Preferred Stock. The first quarter preferred stock dividends are payable on March 17, 2025, to shareholders of record as of Feb. 25, 2025.
About Voya Financial®
Voya Financial, Inc. (NYSE: VOYA) is a leading health, wealth and investment company with approximately 9,000 employees who are focused on achieving Voya’s aspirational vision: “Clearing your path to financial confidence and a more fulfilling life.” Through products, solutions and technologies, Voya helps its 15.2 million individual, workplace and institutional clients become well planned, well invested and well protected. Benefitfocus, a Voya company and a leading benefits administration provider, extends the reach of Voya’s workplace benefits and savings offerings by engaging directly with over 12 million employees in the U.S. Certified as a “Great Place to Work” by the Great Place to Work® Institute, Voya is purpose-driven and committed to conducting business in a way that is economically, ethically, socially and environmentally responsible. Voya has earned recognition as: one of the World’s Most Ethical Companies® by Ethisphere; a member of the Bloomberg Gender-Equality Index; and a “Best Place to Work for Disability Inclusion” on the Disability Equality Index. For more information, visit voya.com. Follow Voya Financial on Facebook, LinkedIn and Instagram.
VOYA-IR VOYA-CF
View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250130274359/en/
Contacts
Media Contact:
Donna Sullivan
(860) 580-2980
Donna.Sullivan@voya.com
Investor Contact:
Mei Ni Chu
(212) 309-8999
IR@voya.com
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