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Palo Alto Networks Reports Fiscal Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2024 Financial Results

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Palo Alto Networks Reports Fiscal Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2024 Financial Results
  • Fiscal fourth quarter revenue grew 12% year over year to $2.2 billion. Fiscal year 2024 revenue grew 16% year over year to $8.0 billion.
  • Next-Generation Security ARR grew 43% year over year to $4.2 billion.
  • Remaining performance obligation grew 20% year over year to $12.7 billion.

SANTA CLARA, Calif., Aug. 19, 2024 /PRNewswire/ — Palo Alto Networks (NASDAQ: PANW), the global cybersecurity leader, announced today financial results for its fiscal fourth quarter and fiscal year ended July 31, 2024.

Total revenue for the fiscal fourth quarter 2024 grew 12% year over year to $2.2 billion, compared with total revenue of $2.0 billion for the fiscal fourth quarter 2023. GAAP net income for the fiscal fourth quarter 2024 was $357.7 million, or $1.01 per diluted share, compared with GAAP net income of $227.7 million, or $0.64 per diluted share, for the fiscal fourth quarter 2023.

Non-GAAP net income for the fiscal fourth quarter 2024 was $522.2 million, or $1.51 per diluted share, compared with non-GAAP net income of $482.5 million, or $1.44 per diluted share, for the fiscal fourth quarter 2023. A reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP information is contained in the tables below.

“We finished off the year with strong execution on our platformization strategy in Q4,” said Nikesh Arora, chairman and CEO of Palo Alto Networks. “As we look forward to fiscal year 2025 and beyond, we are focused on scaling our Next-Generation Security business through continued innovation and execution.”

“Our top-line strength showed through in our remaining performance obligation and Next-Generation Security ARR,” said Dipak Golechha, chief financial officer of Palo Alto Networks. “At the same time we successfully balanced profitable growth, as our non-GAAP operating margins increased by more than 300 basis points for the year with strong cash generation, marking one of the best years for Palo Alto Networks.”

Financial Outlook
Palo Alto Networks provides guidance based on current market conditions and expectations.

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For the fiscal first quarter 2025, we expect:

  • Total revenue in the range of $2.10 billion to $2.13 billion, representing year-over-year growth of between 12% and 13%.
  • Diluted non-GAAP net income per share in the range of $1.47 to $1.49, representing year-over-year growth of between 7% and 8%.

For the fiscal year 2025, we expect:

  • Total revenue in the range of $9.10 billion to $9.15 billion, representing year-over-year growth of between 13% and 14%.
  • Non-GAAP operating margin in the range of 27.5% to 28.0%.
  • Diluted non-GAAP net income per share in the range of $6.18 to $6.31, representing year-over-year growth of between 9% and 11%.
  • Adjusted free cash flow margin in the range of 37% to 38%.

The board of directors authorized an additional $500 million for share repurchases, increasing the remaining authorization for future share repurchases to $1 billion, expiring December 31, 2025.

Guidance takes into account the expected financial impact of the pending acquisition of IBM’s QRadar SaaS assets. Guidance for non-GAAP financial measures excludes share-based compensation-related charges, including share-based payroll tax expense, acquisition-related costs, amortization expense of acquired intangible assets, litigation-related charges, including legal settlements, restructuring and other costs, non-cash charges related to convertible notes, foreign currency gains (losses), and income tax and other tax adjustments related to our long-term non-GAAP effective tax rate, along with certain non-recurring expenses and certain non-recurring cash flows. We have not reconciled non-GAAP operating margin guidance to GAAP operating margin, diluted non-GAAP net income per share guidance to GAAP net income per diluted share or adjusted free cash flow margin guidance to GAAP net cash from operating activities because we do not provide guidance on GAAP operating margin, GAAP net income or net cash from operating activities and would not be able to present the various reconciling cash and non-cash items between GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures because certain items that impact these measures are uncertain or out of our control, or cannot be reasonably predicted, including share-based compensation expense, without unreasonable effort. The actual amounts of such reconciling items will have a significant impact on the company’s GAAP net income per diluted share and GAAP net cash from operating activities.

Earnings Call Information
Palo Alto Networks will host a video webcast for analysts and investors to discuss the company’s fiscal fourth quarter and fiscal year 2024 results as well as the outlook for its fiscal first quarter and fiscal year 2025 today at 4:30 p.m. Eastern time/1:30 p.m. Pacific time. Open to the public, investors may access the webcast, supplemental financial information and earnings slides from the “Investors” section of the company’s website at investors.paloaltonetworks.com. A replay will be available three hours after the conclusion of the webcast and archived for one year.

Forward-Looking Statements
This press release contains forward-looking statements that involve risks, uncertainties, and assumptions including statements regarding our platformization strategy and financial outlook for the fiscal first quarter 2025 and fiscal year 2025. In addition, the financial outlook for the fiscal first quarter 2025 and fiscal year 2025 assumes consummation of the pending acquisition of IBM’s QRadar SaaS assets during the fiscal first quarter of 2025, and reflects revenue contribution and ongoing expenses from such acquisition. There are a significant number of factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from forward-looking statements made in this press release, including: developments and changes in general market, political, economic, and business conditions; failure of our platformization product offerings; failure to achieve the expected benefits of our strategic partnerships and acquisitions; risks associated with managing our growth; risks associated with new product, subscription and support offerings, including our efforts to leverage AI; shifts in priorities or delays in the development or release of new offerings, or the failure to timely develop and achieve market acceptance of new products and subscriptions as well as existing product, subscription and support offerings; failure of our business strategies; rapidly evolving technological developments in the market for security products, subscriptions and support offerings; defects, errors, or vulnerabilities in our products, subscriptions or support offerings; our customers’ purchasing decisions and the length of sales cycles; our competition; our ability to attract and retain new customers; our ability to acquire and integrate other companies, products, or technologies in a successful manner; our debt repayment obligations; and our share repurchase program, which may not be fully consummated or enhance shareholder value, and any share repurchases which could affect the price of our common stock.

Additional risks and uncertainties that could affect our financial results are included under the captions “Risk Factors” and “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” in our Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q filed with the SEC on May 21, 2024, which is available on our website at investors.paloaltonetworks.com and on the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov. Additional information will also be set forth in other filings that we make with the SEC from time to time. All forward-looking statements in this press release are based on information available to us as of the date hereof, and we do not assume any obligation to update the forward-looking statements provided to reflect events that occur or circumstances that exist after the date on which they were made.

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Non-GAAP Financial Measures and Other Key Metrics
Palo Alto Networks has provided in this press release financial information that has not been prepared in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles in the United States (GAAP). The company uses these non-GAAP financial measures and other key metrics internally in analyzing its financial results and believes that the use of these non-GAAP financial measures and key metrics are helpful to investors as an additional tool to evaluate ongoing operating results and trends, and in comparing the company’s financial results with other companies in its industry, many of which present similar non-GAAP financial measures or key metrics.

The presentation of these non-GAAP financial measures and key metrics are not meant to be considered in isolation or as a substitute for comparable GAAP financial measures and should be read only in conjunction with the company’s consolidated financial statements prepared in accordance with GAAP. A reconciliation of the company’s historical non-GAAP financial measures to their most directly comparable GAAP measures has been provided in the financial statement tables included in this press release, and investors are encouraged to review these reconciliations.

Non-GAAP operating margin. Palo Alto Networks defines non-GAAP operating margin as non-GAAP operating income divided by total revenue. The company defines non-GAAP operating income as operating income plus share-based compensation-related charges, including share-based payroll tax expense, acquisition-related costs, amortization expense of acquired intangible assets, litigation-related charges, including legal settlements, and restructuring and other costs. The company believes that non-GAAP operating margin provides management and investors with greater visibility into the underlying performance of the company’s core business operating results.

Non-GAAP net income and net income per share, diluted. Palo Alto Networks defines non-GAAP net income as net income plus share-based compensation-related charges, including share-based payroll tax expense, acquisition-related costs, amortization expense of acquired intangible assets, litigation-related charges, including legal settlements, restructuring and other costs, and non-cash charges related to convertible notes. The company also excludes from non-GAAP net income foreign currency gains (losses) and tax adjustments related to our long-term non-GAAP effective tax rate in order to provide a complete picture of the company’s recurring core business operating results. The company defines non-GAAP net income per share, diluted, as non-GAAP net income divided by the weighted-average diluted shares outstanding, which includes the potentially dilutive effect of the company’s employee equity incentive plan awards and the company’s convertible senior notes outstanding and related warrants, after giving effect to the anti-dilutive impact of the company’s note hedge agreements, which reduces the potential economic dilution that otherwise would occur upon conversion of the company’s convertible senior notes. Under GAAP, the anti-dilutive impact of the note hedge is not reflected in diluted shares outstanding. The company considers these non-GAAP financial measures to be useful metrics for management and investors for the same reasons that it uses non-GAAP operating margin.

Next-Generation Security ARR. Palo Alto Networks defines Next-Generation Security ARR as the annualized allocated revenue of all active contracts as of the final day of the reporting period for Prisma and Cortex offerings inclusive of the VM-Series and related services, and certain cloud-delivered security services. The company considers Next-Generation Security ARR to be a useful metric for management and investors to evaluate the performance of the company because Next-Generation Security is where the company has focused its innovation and the company expects its overall revenue to be disproportionately driven by this Next-Generation Security portfolio. Because Next-Generation Security ARR does not have the effect of providing a numerical measure that is different from any comparable GAAP measure, the company does not consider it a non-GAAP measure.

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Investors are cautioned that there are a number of limitations associated with the use of non-GAAP financial measures and key metrics as analytical tools. Many of the adjustments to the company’s GAAP financial measures reflect the exclusion of items that are recurring and will be reflected in the company’s financial results for the foreseeable future, such as share-based compensation, which is an important part of Palo Alto Networks employees’ compensation and impacts their performance. Furthermore, these non-GAAP financial measures are not based on any standardized methodology prescribed by GAAP, and the components that Palo Alto Networks excludes in its calculation of non-GAAP financial measures may differ from the components that its peer companies exclude when they report their non-GAAP results of operations. Palo Alto Networks compensates for these limitations by providing specific information regarding the GAAP amounts excluded from these non-GAAP financial measures. In the future, the company may also exclude non-recurring expenses and other expenses that do not reflect the company’s core business operating results.

About Palo Alto Networks
Palo Alto Networks is the global cybersecurity leader, committed to making each day safer than the one before with industry-leading, AI-powered solutions in network security, cloud security and security operations. Powered by Precision AI, our technologies deliver precise threat detection and swift response, minimizing false positives and enhancing security effectiveness. Our platformization approach integrates diverse security solutions into a unified, scalable platform, streamlining management and providing operational efficiencies with comprehensive protection. From defending network perimeters to safeguarding cloud environments and ensuring rapid incident response, Palo Alto Networks empowers businesses to achieve Zero Trust security and confidently embrace digital transformation in an ever-evolving threat landscape. This unwavering commitment to security and innovation makes us the cybersecurity partner of choice.

At Palo Alto Networks, we’re committed to bringing together the very best people in service of our mission, so we’re also proud to be the cybersecurity workplace of choice, recognized among Newsweek’s Most Loved Workplaces (2021-2024), with a score of 100 on the Disability Equality Index (2024, 2023, 2022), and HRC Best Places for LGBTQ+ Equality (2022). For more information, visit www.paloaltonetworks.com.

Palo Alto Networks, the Palo Alto Networks logo, and Precision AI are trademarks of Palo Alto Networks, Inc. in the United States and in jurisdictions throughout the world. All other trademarks, trade names, or service marks used or mentioned herein belong to their respective owners. Any unreleased services or features (and any services or features not generally available to customers) referenced in this or other press releases or public statements are not currently available (or are not yet generally available to customers) and may not be delivered when expected or at all. Customers who purchase Palo Alto Networks applications should make their purchase decisions based on services and features currently generally available.

Palo Alto Networks, Inc.

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Preliminary Condensed Consolidated Statements of Operations

(In millions, except per share data)

(Unaudited)










Three Months Ended


Year Ended

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July 31,


July 31,


2024


2023


2024

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2023

Revenue:








Product

$             480.5


$             507.4

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$          1,603.3


$          1,578.4

Subscription and support

1,709.0


1,445.9

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6,424.2


5,314.3

Total revenue

2,189.5


1,953.3

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8,027.5


6,892.7

Cost of revenue:








Product

104.7

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104.3


348.2


418.3

Subscription and support

469.0

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402.5


1,711.0


1,491.4

Total cost of revenue

573.7

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506.8


2,059.2


1,909.7

Total gross profit

1,615.8

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1,446.5


5,968.3


4,983.0

Operating expenses:








Research and development

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494.8


414.4


1,809.4


1,604.0

Sales and marketing

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742.3


664.0


2,794.5


2,544.0

General and administrative

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140.3


114.6


680.5


447.7

Total operating expenses

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1,377.4


1,193.0


5,284.4


4,595.7

Operating income

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238.4


253.5


683.9


387.3

Interest expense

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(0.3)


(5.7)


(8.3)


(27.2)

Other income, net

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80.9


68.7


312.7


206.2

Income before income taxes

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319.0


316.5


988.3


566.3

Provision for (benefit from) income taxes

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(38.7)


88.8


(1,589.3)


126.6

Net income

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$             357.7


$             227.7


$          2,577.6


$             439.7









Net income per share, basic

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$               1.10


$               0.74


$               8.07


$               1.45

Net income per share, diluted

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$               1.01


$               0.64


$               7.28


$               1.28









Weighted-average shares used to compute net income per share, basic

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324.4


306.9


319.2


303.2

Weighted-average shares used to compute net income per share, diluted

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353.9


354.5


354.0


342.3

Palo Alto Networks, Inc.

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Reconciliation of GAAP to Non-GAAP Financial Measures

(In millions, except per share amounts)

(Unaudited)


Three Months Ended


Year Ended

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July 31,


July 31,


2024


2023


2024

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2023









GAAP operating income

$          238.4


$          253.5


$          683.9

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$          387.3

Share-based compensation-related charges

287.1


274.1


1,161.7

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1,145.1

Acquisition-related costs(1)

3.5



13.6

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19.5

Amortization expense of acquired intangible assets

33.7


24.7


119.0

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103.1

Litigation-related charges(2)

25.6


1.7


211.5

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7.1

Restructuring and other costs(3)



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(2.2)

Non-GAAP operating income

$          588.3


$          554.0


$      2,189.7

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$      1,659.9

Non-GAAP operating margin

26.9 %


28.4 %


27.3 %

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24.1 %









GAAP net income

$          357.7


$          227.7


$      2,577.6

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$          439.7

Share-based compensation-related charges

287.1


274.1


1,161.7

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1,145.1

Acquisition-related costs(1)

3.5



13.6

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19.5

Amortization expense of acquired intangible assets

33.7


24.7


119.0

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103.1

Litigation-related charges(2)

25.6


1.7


211.5

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7.1

Restructuring and other costs(3)



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(2.2)

Non-cash charges related to convertible notes(4)

0.6


1.5


3.5

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6.8

Foreign currency loss associated with non-GAAP adjustments



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0.5

Income tax and other tax adjustments(5)

(186.0)


(47.2)


(2,138.8)

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(279.6)

Non-GAAP net income

$          522.2


$          482.5


$      1,948.1

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$      1,440.0









GAAP net income per share, diluted

$            1.01


$            0.64


$            7.28

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$            1.28

Share-based compensation-related charges

0.85


0.86


3.44

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3.59

Acquisition-related costs(1)

0.01


0.00


0.04

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0.06

Amortization expense of acquired intangible assets

0.10


0.07


0.34

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0.30

Litigation-related charges(2)

0.07


0.00


0.60

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0.02

Restructuring and other costs(3)

0.00


0.00


0.00

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(0.01)

Non-cash charges related to convertible notes(4)

0.00


0.00


0.01

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0.02

Foreign currency loss associated with non-GAAP adjustments

0.00


0.00


0.00

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0.00

Income tax and other tax adjustments(5)

(0.53)


(0.13)


(6.04)

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(0.82)

Non-GAAP net income per share, diluted

$            1.51


$            1.44


$            5.67

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$            4.44









GAAP weighted-average shares used to compute net income per share, diluted

353.9


354.5


354.0

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342.3

Weighted-average anti-dilutive impact of note hedge agreements

(7.4)


(19.3)


(10.4)

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(17.9)

Non-GAAP weighted-average shares used to compute net income per share, diluted

346.5


335.2


343.6

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324.4



(1)

Consists of acquisition transaction costs, share-based compensation related to the cash settlement of certain equity awards, and costs to terminate certain employment, operating lease, and other contracts of the acquired companies.

(2)

Consists of the amortization of intellectual property licenses and covenant not to sue. During the three months and fiscal year ended July 31, 2024, it also includes a legal contingency charge and a litigation settlement charge.

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(3)

Consists of adjustments to restructuring and other costs.

(4)

Consists of non-cash interest expense for amortization of debt issuance costs related to the company’s convertible senior notes.

(5)

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Consists of income tax adjustments related to our long-term non-GAAP effective tax rate. During fiscal year 2024, it included a tax benefit from a release of our valuation allowance on U.S. federal, U.S. states other than California, and United Kingdom deferred tax assets. During fiscal year 2023, it included tax benefits from releases of tax reserves related to uncertain tax positions resulting from tax settlements.

Palo Alto Networks, Inc.

Preliminary Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets

(In millions)



July 31, 2024

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July 31, 2023


(unaudited)



Assets




Current assets:




Cash and cash equivalents

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$          1,535.2


$          1,135.3

Short-term investments

1,043.6


1,254.7

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Accounts receivable, net

2,618.6


2,463.2

Short-term financing receivables, net

725.9

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388.8

Short-term deferred contract costs

369.0


339.2

Prepaid expenses and other current assets

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557.4


466.8

Total current assets

6,849.7


6,048.0

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Property and equipment, net

361.1


354.5

Operating lease right-of-use assets

385.9

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263.3

Long-term investments

4,173.2


3,047.9

Long-term financing receivables, net

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1,182.1


653.3

Long-term deferred contract costs

562.0


547.1

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Goodwill

3,350.1


2,926.8

Intangible assets, net

374.9

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315.4

Deferred tax assets

2,399.0


23.1

Other assets

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352.9


321.7

Total assets

$        19,990.9


$        14,501.1

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Liabilities and stockholders’ equity




Current liabilities:




Accounts payable

$             116.3


$             132.3

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Accrued compensation

554.7


548.3

Accrued and other liabilities

506.7

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390.8

Deferred revenue

5,541.1


4,674.6

Convertible senior notes, net

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963.9


1,991.5

Total current liabilities

7,682.7


7,737.5

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Long-term deferred revenue

5,939.4


4,621.8

Deferred tax liabilities

387.7

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28.1

Long-term operating lease liabilities

380.5


279.2

Other long-term liabilities

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430.9


86.1

Total liabilities

14,821.2


12,752.7

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Stockholders’ equity:




Preferred stock


Common stock and additional paid-in capital

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3,821.1


3,019.0

Accumulated other comprehensive loss

(1.6)


(43.2)

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Retained earnings (accumulated deficit)

1,350.2


(1,227.4)

Total stockholders’ equity

5,169.7

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1,748.4

Total liabilities and stockholders’ equity

$        19,990.9


$        14,501.1

SOURCE Palo Alto Networks, Inc.

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Finance

Morgan Stanley has a blunt message on S&P 500

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Morgan Stanley has a blunt message on S&P 500

Most investors still feel like the market is fragile. Morgan Stanley thinks it is further along than they realize.

In his Sunday Start note dated April 12, Morgan Stanley equity strategist Michael Wilson argued that the S&P 500 was in the process of carving out a low after hitting the bottom of the firm’s targeted correction range of 6,300 to 6,500. The bank has consistently maintained that this is a correction within a new bull market, not the start of a bear market.

“As always, the market trades in advance of the headlines. Investors should do the same,” Wilson wrote.

The correction began last October, Wilson noted. Since then, the S&P 500’s forward price-to-earnings ratio has declined 18% from its peak.

That kind of P/E compression typically accompanies a recession or an actively tightening Federal Reserve. Morgan Stanley’s base case includes neither.

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More Wall Street

Beneath the surface, more than half of the stocks in the Russell 3000 have dropped 20% or more from their 52-week highs. Wilson does not see that as a sign of complacency. He sees it as a market that has appropriately discounted the risks.

The key supporting argument is earnings. Price damage for the S&P 500 has been contained to less than 10% because earnings growth is moving in the opposite direction from valuations. Falling multiples alongside improving earnings growth is, in Wilson’s framing, the signature of a bull market correction rather than a bear market.

Wilson addressed the comparisons being drawn to previous oil shocks directly. In those prior cycles, he noted, earnings were already deteriorating or falling sharply when energy prices spiked.

Today, earnings are accelerating from already high levels. The median company is growing earnings per share in the double digits, the fastest pace since 2021.

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Tax refunds are running more than 10% higher this year, which Wilson cited as additional context for why the oil move feels more contained in practice than in headlines.

On other risks, Wilson argued that both private credit and AI disruption appear better understood by markets, with many affected stocks already down 40% or more.

On private credit specifically, he cited colleague Vishy Tirupattur’s view that risks are material but not systemic, and that tightening in private credit could ultimately drive business back toward traditional lenders.

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The Impact of Financial Advisors Since the Uptick in Policy Risk – Center for Retirement Research

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The Impact of Financial Advisors Since the Uptick in Policy Risk – Center for Retirement Research

The brief’s key findings are:

  • Our recent survey research found that older investors are more concerned about their financial future due to greater uncertainty over federal policy.
  • This new analysis explores whether financial advisors can help them cope.
  • Advisors are broadly more optimistic than investors on the economy and on how policy actions might impact financial security.
  • But on the specifics, advisors express concern over Social Security, Medicare, federal debt, and inflation, with many urging precautionary actions.
  • This ambivalence may help explain why advisors have no significant impact on their clients’ views on the future or investment strategy.

Introduction 

Planning for retirement has always been hard, because people face numerous risks – including outliving their money (longevity risk), investment losses (market risk), unexpected health expenses (health risk), and the erosive impact of rapidly rising prices (inflation risk). Further complicating such planning are possible shifts in the public policy environment: changes to social insurance programs can undermine the foundations of a retirement plan; changes to the tax system can scramble a household’s finances; and a ballooning government debt can increase interest rates and slow the economy. The level of policy risk seems to have increased dramatically since the start of 2025, so the question is how the recent uptick may be affecting the decisions and behavior of near-retirees and retirees. 

This brief is the second of two drawn from a recent study on the potential impact of policy risk on planning for retirement.1 The first addressed that question by combining a summary of the academic literature on the nature and effects of policy risk with a new survey of the changes in the views and actions of near-retiree and retiree investors since the start of 2025. This second brief adds the results of a companion survey of financial advisors, which provides information about what advisors are thinking regarding the uptick of policy risk in 2025 and what advice they are providing their older clients.

The discussion proceeds as follows. For background, the first section provides the major findings from the first brief. The literature review establishes that increased policy risk both harms the economy and burdens individuals. And the survey of near retirees and retirees indicates that older Americans are keenly aware of the increase in policy uncertainty and are taking defensive responses. The second section describes the 2025 Survey of Financial Advisors and presents the results. The final section concludes that, while older investors are worried and taking steps, financial advisors are ambivalent. This group retains a generally positive view of the economy despite recent developments, yet harbors some specific concerns. This ambivalence may explain why advisors have no impact on their clients’ views on the financial future or on investment decisions.  

Policy Uncertainty and Response of Households  

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To be clear, “policy risk” is not about policy change, per se, but rather about the unpredictability of future policy. Even without any change to current policy, for example, a tight and polarized election forces households to consider a wider range of policies than if the election outcome were certain or the policy positions of the candidates were similar. 

Major Findings from the Literature

Researchers have used an array of techniques to measure the level of policy risk and its impact. The most common approach is textual analysis of media coverage for terms associated with policy risk.2 But other approaches include looking at the impact of actual variability in policy parameters, estimating the impact of tight elections, and using surveys to gauge household perceptions of policy uncertainty and their likely responses.  

The effects of policy uncertainty on the economy are broadly negative. In terms of the macroeconomy, uncertainty depresses economic activity, increases stock-market volatility, and reduces returns.3 Similarly, unemployment is found to rise in the face of greater uncertainty, while consumption and investment tend to fall.4    

For those approaching retirement and retirees, the most salient risks are related to Social Security, Medicare, and fiscal policy (e.g., the federal debt and tariffs). In terms of Social Security, the big question is how policymakers will address the projected exhaustion of assets in the retirement trust fund in 2033  – raise payroll taxes by 4 percent, cut benefits by 23 percent, or some combination of the two. With regard to Medicare, while its finances are generally structurally sound, the issue is whether policymakers will continue to tolerate the program’s growing costs, which create an ever-increasing drain on federal revenues, or cut the program by raising either premiums or copayments. In terms of the ballooning federal debt, the risks are rapidly rising interest rates on Treasury securities, which cascade through to other forms of borrowing, and/or a major increase in taxes or a decline in spending.

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As individuals take precautionary steps to protect themselves against policy risks, studies have shown that scaring people to take actions that they would not have taken in a stable environment has real costs. In the context of fixing Social Security, for example, researchers have found that individuals would be willing to forgo as much as 6 percent of expected benefits or 2.5 months of earnings to resolve the uncertainty.5 

Results from the 2025 Retirement Investor Survey

The survey of near-retirees and retirees was conducted by Greenwald Research between July 7 and July 31, 2025. The sample consisted of 1,443 individuals ages 45-79 with over $100,000 in investable assets.

Throughout 2025, policy changed in drastic ways, and long-term trends in Medicare and Social Security financing have become more concerning. New deficits added to the already huge federal debt, and tariffs became a major source of anxiety. Not surprisingly, survey respondents have dramatically increased their consumption of media on these issues (see Figure 1).

It should therefore come as no surprise that near-retirees and retirees in the 2025 survey expressed concern about the direction and unpredictability of federal policy. Investors’ concerns for their financial future mounted (39 percent say concern increased versus 15 percent who say it decreased), while their confidence that federal policy will benefit Americans declined (61 percent decreased versus 26 percent increased, see Figure 2).

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Bar graph showing the Changes in Investors’ Outlook for Their Well-Being since Start of 2025

These older investors have already reacted to this unpredictability in several ways (see Figure 3). For example, 21 percent of the unretired respondents in the sample have decided to postpone their retirements. And, on the financial side, 28 percent of the entire group have increased the amount in their emergency fund, and 33 percent have shifted to more conservative investments.  

Bar graph showing the Actions Taken by Investors since Start
of 2025

In short, the evidence shows that older Americans are keenly aware of the increase in policy uncertainty and are taking defensive responses.

How Do Financial Advisors Differ from Investors and What Role Can They Play?

One group that could help older Americans cope with the heightened level of policy uncertainty is their financial advisors. To find out what advisors are thinking and what advice they are offering, the second survey interviewed 400 financial professionals. Each professional was required to have at least 75 clients, at least three years of experience at their current firm, and to manage over $30 million in assets. Furthermore, at least 40 percent of their clients must be 50 or older, and at least half their income must be derived from financial products or planning. These advisors represented a cross section of firms, including broker-dealers, registered investment advisors, insurance companies, banks, and full-service financial services firms.

The advisor survey reveals a different view of the retirement landscape and its susceptibility to policy risk than the investor survey, but also a nuanced one. On the one hand, advisors have a much rosier view of the economy in general. In particular, while 53 percent of near-retirees and retirees say the economy deteriorated between 2024 and early 2025 and only 26 percent say it improved, the numbers for advisors are nearly flipped, with 47 percent saying the state of the economy improved and only 25 percent saying it weakened (see Figure 4). 

Bar graph showing the Changes in Advisors’ and Investors’
Assessments of the Economy since Start of 2025

And while investors say the government’s future actions will weaken their financial security by a nearly two-to-one margin (47 percent versus 24 percent, see Figure 5), the views of advisors are again very different. Only 31 percent of advisors believe the government will weaken their clients’ finances, while 36 percent believe government actions will be positive.

Bar graph showing the Changes in Advisors’ and Investors’
Assessment of How Government Actions Would Affect Their Financial Security since Start of 2025

On the other hand, even advisors seem to be recommending greater caution in response to the turbulent environment in 2025. In particular, 22 percent have recommended that their clients increase emergency savings since the beginning of 2025, as opposed to 3 percent recommending a decrease (75 percent recommend no change, see Figure 6). And the amount of attention advisors pay to political and policy issues has also increased since 2024 – 54 percent say they pay more attention to these topics than last year, as compared with 5 percent saying the opposite. Advisors’ level of concern about their own clients’ financial future also reveals their general unease: 28 percent say they are more concerned about their clients’ financial future in 2025 versus 2024, while only 9 percent say they are less concerned.

Bar graph showing the Changes in Advisors’ Views since Start of 2025

The advisors’ positive outlook for retirement is also somewhat contradicted by their concern regarding specific policy risks. Figure 7 shows that advisors are worried or very worried about a variety of risks. In fact, 63 percent report being worried about a major decline in the stock market, 65 percent are worried about a cut in Social Security benefits, and 79 percent about high inflation. Figure 7 also shows investor responses where the questions were similar to those for advisors. Notably, clients rank these risks quite similarly, but are almost uniformly more worried in absolute levels. Interestingly, both investors and advisors consider the federal debt to be the most concerning of the different topics.

Bar graph showing the Percentage of Advisors and Investors Worried about Various Risks

The underlying pessimism of advisors beneath their overall positive sheen has some specific implications. While the vast majority of advisors either do not recommend a retirement age to their clients or did not change their recommendations between 2024 and 2025, 11 percent advised a later retirement age. Only 1 percent shifted in favor of earlier retirement (see Figure 8). 

Bar graph showing the Changes in Advisors’ Suggested Retirement Age since Start of 2025

Moreover, the vast majority of advisors have recommended that their clients take precautionary actions in light of anticipated policy changes (see Figure 9). In particular, 21 percent have suggested cutting back spending; 49 percent have suggested changes to investments; 43 percent have suggested acquiring financial products to hedge investment losses; and 42 percent have suggested reallocation of resources, such as Roth conversions, based on the projection of higher future taxes. Only 21 percent have not recommended any of the above actions.

Bar graph showing the Percentage of Advisors Recommending Each Action since Start of 2025

Of those advisors who recommended changes in investment strategies in 2025 relative to 2024, most suggested a more conservative allocation. Twenty-five percent chose that option, relative to 18 percent who recommended a more aggressive strategy (with 21 percent suggesting a mix and 36 percent suggesting no change; see Figure 10).

Bar graph showing the Percentage of Advisors Recommending Changing Investment Strategies since Start of 2025

When asked about their personal investments, 29 percent of advisors say that the importance of protecting their assets has increased since 2024, while only 4 percent say that the need to protect assets has become less important, with 66 percent saying their views have not changed (see Figure 11).

Bar graph showing the Percentage of Advisors Saying that Protecting Their Own Investments Has Changed in Importance Since Start of 2025

Overall, the pattern of responses from advisors paints a picture of frothy optimism at a high level, coupled with fundamental concern about the implications of policy on financial security. When asked in any great detail about specific policies or about the appropriate posture to strike between conservative and aggressive investment behavior, the advisors generally display an increased preference for safety as opposed to chasing returns. Putting on a brave face despite underlying concerns may be a response to clients’ need for reassurance.

The ambivalence in advisors’ views may help explain why they do not appear to have much impact on their clients. Regression results show that the correlations between having a financial advisor, on the one hand, and the change in investors’ concern for either their investments or their financial future, on the other, are statistically insignificant in both cases (see Figure 12).

Bar graph showing the Relationship Between Having a
Financial Advisor and Investors’ Change in Views Since Start of 2025

Conclusion

While policy uncertainty has been much studied, big questions remain about the impact of the apparent dramatic uptick in policy risk. Our first brief on this topic showed that near-retiree and retiree investors have grown significantly more concerned about their financial well-being since the start of 2025. Even for this sample of relatively wealthy households, the potential for substantial cuts in Social Security was the major concern. In response to these risks, a meaningful share of these groups have taken steps to protect themselves, such as increasing their emergency fund and moving to more conservative investments, and those still working have delayed their retirement date.    

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One resource that could help older Americans cope with the heightened level of policy uncertainty is their financial advisors. Advisors, however, seem conflicted. They are generally optimistic about the economy overall, with 47 percent saying they think that the economy is stronger since the start of 2025, and only 25 percent reporting they think it is weaker. On the other hand, advisors express concern about a broad array of developments, and most of those recommending changes for their clients suggest cautious actions, such as delaying retirement or moving to more conservative investments. The ambivalence in advisors’ views may help explain why they do not appear to have much impact on their clients’ confidence. The correlations between having a financial advisor, on the one hand, and the change in investors’ concern for either their investments or their financial future, on the other, are statistically insignificant in both cases.

References

Alexopolous, Michelle and Jon Cohen. 2015. “The Power of Print: Uncertainty Shocks, Markets, and the Economy.” International Review of Economics & Finance 40: 8-28.

Baker, Scott R., Nichola Bloom, and Steven J. Davis. 2016. “Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 131(4): 1593-1636.

Boudoukh, Jacob, Ronen Feldman, Shimon Kogan, and Matthew Richardson. 2013. “Which News Moves Stock Prices? A Textual Analysis.” Working Paper 18725. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.

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Fernandez-Villaverde, Jesus, Pablo Guerron-Quintana, Keith Kuester, and Juan Rubio-Ramirez. 2015. “Fiscal Volatility Shocks and Economic Activity.” American Economic Review 105(11): 3352-3384.

Leduc, Sylvain and Zheng Liu. 2016. “Uncertainty Shocks are Aggregate Demand Shocks.” Journal of Monetary Economics 82: 20-35.

Luttmer, Erzo F.P. and Andrew A. Samwick. 2018. “The Welfare Cost of Perceived Policy Uncertainty: Evidence from Social Security.” American Economic Review 108(2): 275-307.

Munnell, Alicia H. and Gal Wettstein. 2026. “How Policy Risks Affect Retirement Planning.” Special Report. Chestnut Hill, MA: Center for Retirement Research at Boston College.

Shoven, John B., Sita Slavov, and John G. Watson. 2021. “How Does Social Security Reform Indecision Affect Younger Cohorts?” Working Paper 28850. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.

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Benin's finance minister Wadagni wins presidential election with 94% landslide

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Benin's finance minister Wadagni wins presidential election with 94% landslide
Benin’s ​Finance Minister ‌Romuald Wadagni ​secured ​a landslide victory ⁠in ​the West ​African nation’s April 12 ​presidential ​election, garnering over ‌94% ⁠of votes, provisional ​results ​from ⁠the electoral ​commission ​showed ⁠on Monday.
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