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Investors price in 4 rate cuts from Fed after Powell signals 'ample room' to move

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Investors price in 4 rate cuts from Fed after Powell signals 'ample room' to move

Investors solidified bets on how deeply the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said Friday the “time has come for policy to adjust.”

Powell noted the timing and pace of cuts will “depend on incoming data,” but markets quickly moved to fully price in four rate cuts of 0.25% by the end of 2024 on Friday morning after the Fed chair said the central bank has “ample room” to maneuver as policy enters its next phase.

“The current level of our policy rate gives us ample room to respond to any risks we may face, including the risk of unwelcome further weakening in labor market conditions,” Powell said.

Stocks rallied following Powell’s speech, with the S&P 500 (^GSPC) rising 1% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) gaining more than 1.3%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose about 1.1%, or more than 400 points, and the interest rate-sensitive Russell 2000 (^RUT) small-cap index soared, rising more than 2.5%.

Renaissance Macro head of Economics Neil Dutta highlighted in a note to clients that Powell didn’t use the word “gradual” when referring to rate cuts like some other Fed officials had in recent days.

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This, Dutta argued, suggests “Powell is not removing the optionality of doing large moves as policy adjusts.”

Markets appear to agree.

Though with only three Fed meetings left in 2024, the looming question remains when the Fed would cut rates by 0.50% in a single meeting to reach the current investor expectation of four interest rate cuts this year.

Bets that a larger move will come in September moved up marginally on Friday morning. Markets are pricing in a 34.5% chance the Fed cuts by 50 basis points by the end of its September meeting, up from a roughly 24% chance seen the day prior, per the CME’s FedWatch Tool.

Economists have argued further weakness in the labor market would be the likely prompt for a larger cut in September. The July jobs report showed the second-weakest monthly job additions since 2020 and the highest unemployment rate, 4.3%, in nearly three years.

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Powell addressed these developments on Friday, noting the cooling seen in the labor market is “unmistakeable” and that the downside risks to the central bank’s mandate for full employment have risen.

“It seems unlikely that the labor market will be a source of elevated inflationary pressures anytime soon,” Powell said. “We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions.”

Capital Economics’ deputy chief North America economist Stephen Brown wrote in a note to clients that a weak August jobs report, set for release on Sept. 6, would be a likely catalyst for the Fed to cut by more than 25 basis points at its next meeting.

“Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish tone at Jackson Hole [on Friday] and pledge to do ‘everything we can to support a strong labour market’ implies that a 50 bp cut could be on the table at the September meeting, although such a move might require a further rise in the unemployment rate in the August Employment Report, which we judge to be unlikely,” Brown wrote.

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Oxford Economics chief US economist Ryan Sweet agreed.

“The August employment report will determine whether the Fed cuts by 25 [basis points] or 50 [basis points] in September,” Sweet wrote.

The Fed’s next policy decision will be announced on Sept. 18.

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) during morning trading in New York on August 23, 2024. US Federal Reserve Chair Chair Jerome Powell said on August 23 that the

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) during morning trading in New York on August 23, 2024. (Photo by ANGELA WEISS / AFP) (Photo by ANGELA WEISS/AFP via Getty Images) (ANGELA WEISS via Getty Images)

Josh Schafer is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on X @_joshschafer.

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Finance

State aims to reclaim $850K from campaign finance vendor

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State aims to reclaim 0K from campaign finance vendor

OKLAHOMA CITY (KFOR) — The state is now looking to recoup around $850,000 from a company they said didn’t meet deadlines to create a campaign finance website.

It’s The Guardian and was supposed to be up and running in October, but that didn’t happen. The Guardian is the name of the state’s online campaign finance reporting system.

“They were unable to deliver a compliant system,” said Ethics Commission Executive Director Leeanne Bruce Boone during their meeting on Friday.

The company at the center of it all is RFD and Associates, based in Austin, Texas. They were hired in December 2024 to begin the project of creating The Guardian 2.0.

The previous company, according to the commission, was with Civix. However, problems arose between the state and that company, so they had to shift and find a new vendor.

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The commission appropriated around $2.2 million for the endeavor.

Months went by, and according to the commission’s timeline, deadlines were missed altogether.

Dates in June were missed, and in August, the company received a warning from the Ethics Commission. The Office of Management and Enterprise Services (OMES) had to get involved in October and conduct an independent technical assessment.

The October date was proposed by the company, but it wasn’t met. In November, a formal notice of system failures and vendor non-compliance was noted.

“None of the milestones were met,” said Bruce Boone during the meeting. “Extensive corrective steps over many months. Written warnings were sent.”

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At the Friday meeting, the commission voted to cut the contract with the company, and a contract with the previous one was then sent out.

“Terminate the contract and proceed with legal action,” said Bruce Boone.

Bruce Boone said that in total $850,000 was actually spent throughout this process on RFD. The new contract with Civix, she said, is estimated to cost over $230,000 and should last for three years. The effort is needed ahead of the 2026 election.

Now the commission has decided to bring in the Attorney General’s Office to see if they can get the money back.

“I take very seriously my role to ensure that taxpayer dollars are spent fairly and appropriately,” AG Drummond said in a statement. “My office stands ready to take legal action to recover damages, hold those responsible accountable, and work with the Ethics Commission to ensure the public has a reliable means to access campaign finance reports.”

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News 4 attempted to get a statement out of the Chief Operating Officer of RFD and Associates, who had been in the meeting but quickly left after the commission voted.

“No comment,” said COO Scott Glover.

What would you say to taxpayers about that?

In response, he said, “I don’t agree with the ethics commission’s decision. That’s all I have to say.”

The Guardian had been delayed by several months, but the commission did respond appropriately and timely manner to requests made for documents.

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The Guardian was back online Friday afternoon.

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One.funding and MV Commercial launch MV Asset Finance

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One.funding and MV Commercial launch MV Asset Finance

One.funding has partnered with UK-based MV Commercial to introduce MV Asset Finance, which offers an alternative method for MV Commercial’s customers to secure finance, according to a LinkedIn post.

In developing MV Asset Finance, representatives from One.funding worked closely with MV Commercial’s team to better understand business priorities and the requirements of their customer base.

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According to the post, the service aims to remove friction, ensure complete transparency, and enable a seamless process from initial engagement to completion by integrating support within MV Commercial’s operations and presenting it under their brand.

MV Commercial supplies fleet solutions for vehicles within the UK.

The company’s offerings include trucks, trailers, and light commercial vehicles that are available for sale, rental, or contract hire.

Its current rental and Ready to Go fleets consist of 2,000 specialist trucks, vans, and trailers across various depots in Airdrie, Grantham, Livingston, Oxford, Haydock, and London Luton.

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One.funding CEO Lee Schofield said: “At One.funding, we’ve 20 years of experience in building point-of-sale finance that fits naturally into how businesses sell. MV Asset Finance shows what’s possible when that experience is embedded into the MV Commercial journey, making it easier for their customers to keep moving and keep growing.”

A recent example involved AMK Plant & Tipper Hire, which added a DAF FAD XD450 Construction eight-by-four tipper truck to its fleet, the company’s first DAF tipper purchase.

The transaction was finalised in three weeks; MV Commercial supplied the vehicle while financing was arranged through the newly launched MV Asset Finance framework.

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RFSD board approves financial assurances, reviews annual audit

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RFSD board approves financial assurances, reviews annual audit

The Roaring Fork School District Board of Education approved its annual financial accreditation assurances and reviewed the district’s 2024-25 audited financial statements during its meeting on Wednesday, according to a district news release.

The audit, presented by McMahan and Associates, found the district’s overall financial position to be stable and identified areas for continued improvement in internal controls and financial processes. The district’s General Fund balance remains above minimum levels required by board policy.

Chief Financial Officer Christy Chicoine said the audit reflects progress following prior concerns identified in earlier reviews.



“We have made significant improvements compared to the prior year’s audit as a Finance Department, and I am grateful for the finance team’s commitment towards those improvements as demonstrated in this audit,” Chicoine said. “While we still have work to do to continue to sustain and enhance the district’s fiscal management, the audit report indicates we are clearly headed in the right direction.”

Superintendent Anna Cole said the findings validate work undertaken over the past two years to rebuild internal systems and improve transparency.

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“Over the past two years, our teams have worked diligently and transparently to rebuild internal financial systems that left the district at risk,” Cole said. “The outcomes of this audit are evidence that we are on track.”

Cole said the timing of the audit is significant as the district begins developing its budget for the 2026-27 school year and faces mounting external pressures.

“We couldn’t have stabilized internal systems at a better time,” she said. “As we begin the budgeting process for the 26/27 school year, we face external challenges like declining enrollment, instability of state and federal funding, and a rising cost of living that is outpacing staff and teacher salaries. This audit is an important confirmation that our finances are in order as we prepare to navigate oncoming challenges.”

Board President Lindsay DeFrates said the board is better positioned to plan ahead following the audit’s conclusions.

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“We are grateful for the leadership of Chief Chicoine and the hard work of the district finance and human resources teams,” DeFrates said. “We are now in a much better place financially and will move forward with clarity, transparency and accountability, able to better navigate the challenges to come.”

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