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I’m a Finance Expert: Here’s How Long It Will Take To Recover From Inflation If Trump Wins

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I’m a Finance Expert: Here’s How Long It Will Take To Recover From Inflation If Trump Wins

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Steep inflation has haunted Americans as our number one bogeyman over the last two and a half years.

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“We’ve experienced high inflation over the last three years because of how much money we flooded into our financial system as a response to the COVID-19 pandemic,” explains CFP and MBA Scott Sturgeon of Oread Wealth. “These include stimulus checks, PPP loans, quantitative easing and other pandemic-era policies that lingered too long. The more dollars there are pursuing the same goods and services, the more those goods and services will increase in price as a response.”

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Trump’s proposed policies prove a mixed bag for their impact on inflation. Some would likely reduce it, while others would exacerbate it. Consider the push and pull of each as you prognosticate future inflation rates.

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Deflationary Policies Under Trump

Sara Routhier, finance expert with FreeAdvice.com, sees a slow road ahead. “If Trump wins, it will most likely take two to three years to recover from the inflation we have seen over the last few years. If Harris wins the election, there is a good chance that inflation will continue to rise.”

Learn More: Trump Wants To Eliminate Income Taxes: How Would That Impact You If You Are Retired?

So which of Trump’s policies will help reduce inflation?

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Slower Immigration

“Trump’s tighter immigration policies should help reduce inflation,” observes Routhier. “The government would spend less on undocumented immigrants’ housing, medical expenses, and other assimilation costs.”

Reduced government spending isn’t the only reason why slower immigration would also slow inflation. Immigration fuels population growth, which in turn fuels economic growth through higher demand for goods and services. Inflation goes hand in hand with hot economic growth, so reducing population growth and consumer demand should tamp down on inflation.

Greater Domestic Energy Production

At rally after rally, Trump has promised to “drill baby drill” to increase domestic oil and gas production. Greater energy supply drives down energy prices, helping to reduce inflation.

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Melanie Musson, a finance expert with Clearsurance.com, points to lower US energy prices and fewer foreign imports. “If Trump is elected again, you can expect a shift away from foreign dependence, similar to his first presidency.”

Reduced Federal Spending (Maybe)

More government spending means more money flooding into the economy. Read: inflation.

Historically, Republican candidates have proposed slimmer government spending, which can help cut inflation. That said, Donald Trump is by no means a classical conservative.

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Trump’s first administration continued to spend more each year, outspending the Obama Administration in every year per The American Presidency Project.

You could make a case that a second Trump Administration would increase federal spending at a slower pace than a Harris Administration. But that argument rests on the “lesser of two evils” for exacerbating inflation, as opposed to a policy solution.

Trump Policies that Would Increase Inflation

Many of Trump’s policy proposals would increase inflation rather than continue taming it.

Pressuring Lower Interest Rates

Despite appointing Jerome Powell as the chair of the Federal Reserve, Donald Trump has been his fiercest critic. He told Fox Business earlier this year that he wouldn’t reappoint Powell, and accused him of being “political.”

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In fact, Trump has gone so far as claiming the power to fire a sitting Fed chair, as reported by The Hill. He has repeatedly campaigned this year on lowering interest rates — which of course fuels inflation.

“Higher interest rates have helped cool inflation by cooling down an overheated economy,” explains Sturgeon. And racing to slash interest rates too quickly can drive inflation rates right back up again.

Tariffs

It doesn’t take an economist to see that adding new taxes on imports makes those imported goods more expensive. Retailers don’t just eat those higher costs — they pass them on to consumers. “Broad tariffs typically raise prices for everyday goods,” explains Paul Tyler from annuity provider Zinnia.

Trump initially called for a 10% blanket tariff on all imports, which he has more recently raised to 20% as reported by CNBC. On Chinese imports, that rate would jump to 60%.

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That spells inflation on imports, for everyday consumers.

Tax Cuts

Tax cuts stimulate the economy by leaving consumers and companies more money to spend, grow, and hire.

To juice the economy, Trump has proposed extending the provisions from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 indefinitely, and reducing the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15% (see this analysis by the Tax Foundation).

Sometimes the economy does need stimulating. But when the economy is overstimulated — like it’s been for the last three years — that stimulus leads to inflation.

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Reduced Federal Regulation

Government regulation works like a throttle on the economy. When the government tightens regulation, it squeezes the flow of goods and services, while loosening regulation increases the flow.

Like reducing taxes, reducing regulation stimulates the economy, which is in turn inflationary.

Dana Miranda, Certified Educator in Personal Finance and author at Healthy Rich, sees regulation as a check on retailers raising prices. “Corporate price gouging can be a major factor in inflation, and it can be addressed with regulation by federal agencies. Harris has proposed regulatory and tax increases on corporations. Trump’s policies favor corporations and likely wouldn’t wrangle inflation any better than it is now.”

Final Thoughts

Each candidates’ policies would have a mixed effect on inflation. Don’t expect either candidate to wave a magic wand and make inflation disappear.

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Instead, expect a slow march back to 2% inflation — or a fast drop if the economy falls into recession.

Editor’s note on election coverage: GOBankingRates is nonpartisan and strives to cover all aspects of the economy objectively and present balanced reports on politically focused finance stories. You can find more coverage of this topic on GOBankingRates.com.

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This article originally appeared on GOBankingRates.com: I’m a Finance Expert: Here’s How Long It Will Take To Recover From Inflation If Trump Wins

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Africa’s climate finance rules are growing, but they’re weakly enforced – new research

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Africa’s climate finance rules are growing, but they’re weakly enforced – new research

Climate change is no longer just about melting ice or hotter summers. It is also a financial problem. Droughts, floods, storms and heatwaves damage crops, factories and infrastructure. At the same time, the global push to cut greenhouse gas emissions creates risks for countries that depend on oil, gas or coal.

These pressures can destabilise entire financial systems, especially in regions already facing economic fragility. Africa is a prime example.

Although the continent contributes less than 5% of global carbon emissions, it is among the most vulnerable. In Mozambique, repeated cyclones have destroyed homes, roads and farms, forcing banks and insurers to absorb heavy losses. Kenya has experienced severe droughts that hurt agriculture, reducing farmers’ ability to repay loans. In north Africa, heatwaves strain electricity grids and increase water scarcity.

These physical risks are compounded by “transition risks”, like declining revenues from fossil fuel exports or higher borrowing costs as investors worry about climate instability. Together, they make climate governance through financial policies both urgent and complex. Without these policies, financial systems risk being caught off guard by climate shocks and the transition away from fossil fuels.

This is where climate-related financial policies come in. They provide the tools for banks, insurers and regulators to manage risks, support investment in greener sectors and strengthen financial stability.

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Regulators and banks across Africa have started to adopt climate-related financial policies. These range from rules that require banks to consider climate risks, to disclosure standards, green lending guidelines, and green bond frameworks. These tools are being tested in several countries. But their scope and enforcement vary widely across the continent.

My research compiles the first continent-wide database of climate-related financial policies in Africa and examines how differences in these policies – and in how binding they are – affect financial stability and the ability to mobilise private investment for green projects.

A new study I conducted reviewed more than two decades of policies (2000–2025) across African countries. It found stark differences.

South Africa has developed the most comprehensive framework, with policies across all categories. Kenya and Morocco are also active, particularly in disclosure and risk-management rules. In contrast, many countries in central and west Africa have introduced only a few voluntary measures.

Why does this matter? Voluntary rules can help raise awareness and encourage change, but on their own they often do not go far enough. Binding measures, on the other hand, tend to create stronger incentives and steadier progress. So far, however, most African climate-related financial policies remain voluntary. This leaves climate risk as something to consider rather than a firm requirement.

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Uneven landscape

In Africa, the 2015 Paris Agreement marked a clear turning point. Around that time, policy activity increased noticeably, suggesting that international agreements and standards could help create momentum and visibility for climate action. The expansion of climate-related financial policies was also shaped by domestic priorities and by pressure from international investors and development partners.

But since the late 2010s, progress has slowed. Limited resources, overlapping institutional responsibilities and fragmented coordination have made it difficult to sustain the earlier pace of reform.

Looking across the continent, four broad patterns have emerged.

A few countries, such as South Africa, have developed comprehensive frameworks. These include:

  • disclosure rules (requirements for banks and companies to report how climate risks affect them)

  • stress tests (simulations of extreme climate or transition scenarios to see whether banks would remain resilient).

Others, including Kenya and Morocco, are steadily expanding their policy mix, even if institutional capacity is still developing.

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Some, such as Nigeria and Egypt, are moderately active, with a focus on disclosure rules and green bonds. (Those are bonds whose proceeds are earmarked to finance environmentally friendly projects such as renewable energy, clean transport or climate-resilient infrastructure.)

Finally, many countries in central and west Africa have introduced only a limited number of measures, often voluntary in nature.

This uneven landscape has important consequences.

The net effect

In fossil fuel-dependent economies such as South Africa, Egypt and Algeria, the shift away from coal, oil and gas could generate significant transition risks. These include:

  • financial instability, for example when asset values in carbon-intensive sectors fall sharply or credit exposures deteriorate

  • stranded assets, where fossil fuel infrastructure and reserves lose their economic value before the end of their expected life because they can no longer be used or are no longer profitable under stricter climate policies.

Addressing these challenges may require policies that combine investment in new, low-carbon sectors with targeted support for affected workers, communities and households.

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Climate finance affects people directly. When droughts lead to loan defaults, local banks are strained. Insurance companies facing repeated payouts after floods may raise premiums. Pension funds invested in fossil fuels risk devaluations as these assets lose value. Climate-related financial policies therefore matter not only for regulators and markets, but also for jobs, savings, and everyday livelihoods.

At the same time, there are opportunities.

Firstly, expanding access to green bonds and sustainability-linked loans can channel private finance into renewable energy, clean transport, or resilient infrastructure.

Secondly, stronger disclosure rules can improve transparency and investor confidence.

Thirdly, regional harmonisation through common reporting standards, for example, would reduce fragmentation. This would make it easier for Africa to attract global climate finance.

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Looking ahead

International forums such as the UN climate conferences (COP) and the G20 have helped to push this agenda forward, mainly by setting expectations rather than hard rules. These initiatives create pressure and guidance. But they remain soft law. Turning them into binding, enforceable rules still depends on decisions taken by national regulators and governments.

International partners such as the African Development Bank and the African Union could support coordination by promoting continental standards that define what counts as a green investment. Donors and multilateral lenders may also provide technical expertise and financial support to countries with weaker systems, helping them move from voluntary guidelines toward more enforceable rules.

South Africa, already a regional leader, could share its experience with stress testing and green finance frameworks.

Africa also has the potential to position itself as a hub for renewable energy and sustainable finance. With vast solar and wind resources, expanding urban centres, and an increasingly digital financial sector, the continent could leapfrog towards a greener future if investment and regulation advance together.

Success stories in Kenya’s sustainable banking practices and Morocco’s renewable energy expansion show that progress is possible when financial systems adapt.

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What happens next will matter greatly. By expanding and enforcing climate-related financial rules, Africa can reduce its vulnerability to climate shocks while unlocking opportunities in green finance and renewable energy.

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