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How AI and crypto are shaping the future of finance

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How AI and crypto are shaping the future of finance

Over the last three years, the crypto space has undergone massive upheavals. Alongside the boosting from stimulus packages in 2021, venture capital (VC) firms had invested $33 billion in crypto and blockchain startups.

The following year, the Federal Reserve triggered a domino of crypto bankruptcies with its interest rate hiking cycle, starting from the Terra (LUNA) crash and culminating in the FTX Ponzi scheme collapse.

The promise of DeFi lost its luster, not helped by over $3 billion lost in DeFi hacks during 2023. The ongoing Bitcoin bull run shows the lack of altcoin confidence as the so-called Altcoin Season is yet to manifest.

In June 2023, BlackRock’s head of strategic partnerships, Joseph Chalom, noted that DeFi’s institutional adoption is “many, many, many years away”. However, there is a case to be made that the emerging AI narrative can fuse with blockchain technology and its applications.

Taking in lessons from the previous cycle, what would that AI-crypto landscape look like?

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Laying the AI Foundation with Crypto Composability

Looking back, it is safe to say that “DeFi” was subsumed by companies on top of tokenized layers, such as Celsius Network or BlockFi, rendering DeFi into CeFi. These companies successfully drove crypto adoption as such, only to end up sullying the very word “crypto”.

A renewed DeFi v2 should then focus on a superior user experience that doesn’t spark the demand for centralized companies to make it so. Most importantly, DeFi security must be fortified. The most promising solution in that direction is the zero-knowledge Ethereum Virtual Machine – zkEVM.

By abstracting chain transactions via zero-knowledge proofs (ZKPs), zkEVM increases network throughput and reduces gas costs. On top of that, zkEVM simplifies the user experience by facilitating alternative token payments for gas fees. In other words, zkEVM-like solutions pave the road to scalability needed for AI applications.

AI applications inherently involve high volumes of data, making it a potential bottleneck for blockchain networks. With this obstacle ahead, Polygon zkEVM makes it possible to generate AI artwork via the Midjourney image generator. In this process, the results could be tokenized as NFTs with low fees.

Building further on smart contracts of other kinds, the crypto space has laid the groundwork for AI with composability and permissionless access. Combined, this creates an autonomous and efficient infrastructure for financial markets. As every piece of market action can be disassembled into smart contracts, composability brings innovation across three composability layers:

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  • Morphological – components communicating between DeFi protocols, creating new meta-features.
  • Atomic – ability for each smart contract to function independently or in conjunction with other protocols’ smart contracts.
  • Syntactic – ability for protocols to communicate based on standardized protocols. 

In practice, this translates to Lego DeFi bricks. For instance, Compound (COMP) allows users to supply liquidity into smart contract pools. This is one of DeFi’s revolutionary pillars as users no longer require someone’s permission to either loan or borrow. With smart contracts acting as liquidity pools, borrowers can tap into them by providing collateral. 

Liquidity providers gain cTokens in return as interest. If the supplied token is USDC, the yielding one will be cUSDC. However these tokens can be integrated across the DeFi board into all protocols compatible with the ERC-20 standard.

In other words, composability creates opportunities for the multiplicity of yields, so that no smart contract is left idle. The problem is, how to efficiently handle this rise in complexity? This is where AI comes into play.

Amplifying Efficiency with AI

When thinking of artificial intelligence (AI), the main feature that comes to mind is superhuman processing. Financial markets have long ago become too complex for human minds to handle. Instead, humans have come to rely on predictive algorithms, automation and personalization.

In TradFi, this typically translates to robo advisors prompting users on their needs and risk tolerances. A robo advisor would then generate a profile to manage the user’s portfolio. In the blockchain composability arena, such AI algorithms would gain much greater flexibility to siphon yields.

By reading the market conditions on the fly as they access transparent smart contracts, AI agents have the potential to reduce market inefficiencies, reduce human error, and increase market coordination. The latter already exists in the form of automated market makers (AMMs) that deliver asset price discovery.

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By analyzing order flows, liquidity and volatility in real-time, AI agents are ideally suited to optimize liquidity supply and even prevent DeFi flash loan exploits by coordinating between DeFi platforms and limiting transaction sizes. 

Inevitably, as AI agents increase market efficiency through real-time market monitoring and machine learning, new prediction markets could emerge as liquidity deepens. The job of humans would then be to set bots to arbitrate against other bots.

At $42.5 billion across 2,500 equity rounds in 2023, AI investments have already outpaced the crypto peak of 2021. But which AI-crypto projects showcase the trend?

Spotlight on AI-Crypto Innovators

Since the launch of ChatGPT by OpenAI in November 2022, AI has been an attention grabber. The attention previously reserved for memecoins became diverted into AI advancements in reasoning, art generation, coding and most recently, text-to-video generation via Sora.

Across these fields of human interest, they all rely on the scaling of data centers. Unlike crypto tokens, which are smart contracts, AI tokens are the base blocks of text that the AI agent disassembles into relationship units. Depending on the attunement of each AI model, these tokens represent contextual windows for the relationships between concepts.

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For each user prompt, it is challenging to allow maximum processing capacity. When the AI model breaks the text into tokens, the output relies on the token size. In turn, the token size determines the quality of the generated content, whatever it may be.

Obviously, the larger the token size, the larger the potential for an AI model to consider the greater number of concepts when generating content. Given such inherent limitations, AI tokens naturally fit blockchain tech.

Just as Web3 gaming tokenizes in-game assets for decentralized ownership, tradeable currency and reward incentives, the same can be done with AI. Case in point, Fetch.AI (FET) is an open-access protocol to connect Autonomous Economic Agents, via the Open Economic Framework to the Fetch Smart Ledger.

The FET token aims to monetize network transactions, pay for AI model deployment, reward network participants and pay for other services. And just as people connect with DeFi services via wallets, they can connect with Fetch.AI’s agentverse with a Fetch Wallet to take advantage of deployed AI protocols.

For instance, one of the many AI agents currently in beta agentverse is PDF Summarization Agent.

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As a prospective pathway to democratizing AI agent access and deployment, FET token has gained 300% value since the beginning of the year. According to Market Research Future, AI agents market is forecasted to grow to $110.42 billion by 2032 from $6.03 billion 2023. This represents a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 43.80%.

Ultimately, we are likely to see an ecosystem of AI agents interacting with DeFi protocols and other services that would benefit from automating real-time decisions. This may expand to AI agents aiding self-driving EVs or even helping execute delicate surgeries and patient care. Pediatric surgeon Dr. Danielle Walsh at the University of Kentucky College of Medicine in Lexington said:

“A patient who wakes up at 1:00 in the morning 2 days after a surgical operation can contact the chatbot to ask, ‘I’m having this symptom, is this normal?’”

In medical diagnostics, Massachusetts-based Lantheus Holdings (LNTH) had already deployed its PYLARIFY AI imaging agent for early prostate cancer detection. With AI-crypto projects like Fetch.AI, many such services could be tokenized to full extent.

The Road Ahead: Challenges and Opportunities

Ahead of AI integration, blockchain platforms face the same problem – institutional adoption. Do smaller protocols have a chance to penetrate the mainstream, or is this reserved for institutions?

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DeFi may have paved the way for tokenized financial markets, but big players are likelier to instill public confidence.

For instance, the Canton Network, which is supported by Big Bank and Big Tech, may supplant smaller DeFi fish. Eventually, the convenience of same-day bank transfers could be seamlessly integrated into blockchain networks. This is especially pertinent given that Microsoft is powering the Canton Network with Azure cloud while developing AI products.

At the same time, plenty of users would prefer to stay within open-access ecosystems, riding the value appreciation of AI-crypto tokens. Moreover, crypto protocols don’t have to be directly geared toward AI agent deployment. Case in point, The Graph (GRT) could be used for AI apps as a blockchain data indexing service.

Based on this speculation, this “Google of Blockchain” has gained a 103% boost year-to-date. One of the most prospective crypto projects aiding AI could be Injective Protocol (INJ). As it “injects” AI algorithms into aforementioned DeFi market actions, Injective aims to simplify and automate complex DeFi operations.

At the base layer of the AI-crypto intersection could be Allora Network, using its zero-knowledge machine learning (zkML) and federated learning to build AI apps for augmented DeFi experience.

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If the rollout of these open apps is successful, institutional networks such as Canton would have diminished appeal. This dynamic will largely depend on regulatory agencies, which are yet to materialize rules even for the crypto space.

Conclusion

AI is poised to make data more intelligible, actionable and pertinent to a specific user. On the other hand, blockchain technology formalized and decentralized the logic of human action into self-executing smart contracts.

When the two spheres meet, we get AI agents with a renewed purpose. A new generation of tokenized robo-advisors that take full advantage of DeFi composability. And as AI agents explore new possibilities, new markets will emerge.

From predictive analysis to injecting liquidity into on-chain markets, AI agents are ready to craft a hyper-financialized future where, starting from Bitcoin itself, humans will encounter plenty of building blocks to capitalize on.

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Finance

Sen. Whitehouse: Climate change could crash the financial system

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Sen. Whitehouse: Climate change could crash the financial system

The Hill reported earlier this month on how opaque decisions within the insurance industry were laying the groundwork for where Americans will live as the planet heats.  

 

But the risk goes beyond that, many experts warn: The complex interrelationships between insurance, mortgage lending and the broader financial system have made climate change “an emerging risk to financial stability,” according to the 2023 report by the Financial Stability Oversight Committee. 

 

Senate Budget Committee Chair Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) has been a principal voice warning of the financial risks spilling over as climate change impacts the insurance industry.  

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Sen. Whitehouse sat down with The Hill to discuss why he worries climate change poses risk to the global financial system and the role of the Senate in addressing it. 

 
Q: Some experts warn about the potential of Great Recession-style systemic risk from climate insurance — but others argue that, however serious that risk might be, it’s fundamentally a regional issue, restricted to places like Florida. Which side of that do you come down on? 

 
Whitehouse: There are very significant indicators and it’s going to be big, national, and even global. A number of studies show a very high risk to the world economy from calamities — and insurance is at the heart of that.  

 
The Florida insurance market is more or less circling the drain right now in the way in which Freddie Mac’s chief economist predicted: that with the danger of sea level rise and coastal storm activity, coastal properties become increasingly expensive to insure and then they become uninsurable. 

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And once they become uninsurable, they become unmortgageable. And once buyers can’t get mortgages for those properties, the values crash — because you’ll now only have cash buyers on the demand side.  

 
And that was predicted by Freddie Mac to produce a systemic nationwide economic shock, akin to or greater than the [2008] mortgage meltdown. 

 
Q: So to push back on that a bit, the mortgage industry would say, even if the Florida coast becomes uninsurable, it’s still a regional problem — however serious it might be. 

Whitehouse. The problem with that is that the sea levels and storm risk aren’t just increasing in Florida.  

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You’re seeing it through South Texas. You’re seeing it in the Louisiana and Atlantic coast. Florida is getting first and worst because it has so much coast and a sketchy insurance market. But Florida would just be the leading edge of a problem that would hit coasts all around the United States.  

 
And you now have [flooding’s] evil twin, wildfire risk. Once you get away from the coast and out particularly to the west and to areas where wildfire risk is no longer either temporally or geographically predictable. 

 
Q: For the Senate Budget Committee — what legislative intervention could help defray some of that risk?  

Whitehouse: I mean, obviously, solving the climate problem would put a huge amount of this risk out under better control.  

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When we’re looking at federal debt, a third of it — a whole third — was produced by unexpected shocks, like [the mortgage crisis of] 2008, and by COVID.  

 
And there’s every reason to believe that the shock of an insurance and property values crash from coastal and wildfire risk would be worse than those. 
 

The thing about these climate [risks], is that unlike 2008 — where there’s panic and economic crash, the bottom falls out of markets, but then the values return. [But] if the underlying risk is that the property is going to be underwater, or that the house is going to burn four or five times during the course of a 30-year mortgage, then that [risk] that doesn’t go away. So there isn’t a rebound.  
 

That’s what makes it so dangerous. 

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How to fix the finance flows that are pushing our planet to the brink

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How to fix the finance flows that are pushing our planet to the brink

Comment: Commercial banks are financing a huge amount of fossil-fuel and industrial agriculture activities in the Global South – they must turn off the tap

Teresa Anderson is global lead on climate justice for ActionAid International.

Last month, from Bangladesh to Kenya to Washington DC, over 40,000 activists in nearly 20 countries hit the streets calling on banks, governments and financial institutions to “#FixTheFinance” pushing the planet to the brink. 

It’s clear that we can’t address the climate crisis unless we fix the finance flows that are failing the planet. When we know that we have hardly any time left to avoid runaway climate breakdown, it’s absurd that so much of the world’s money is still being poured into fuelling climate change, while barely any is going to the solutions. 

Let’s face it – the climate crisis is really about money, and our choices to use it and make it in really stupid ways.  

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G7 offers tepid response to appeal for “bolder” climate action

Many of the world’s most powerful private banks are holding their Annual General Meetings over the next weeks. Banks like Barclays, HSBC and Citibank are pumping billions into fossil fuel expansion, knowing full well that their decisions directly lead to climate chaos and devastating local pollution, particularly for communities in Africa, Asia and Latin America. At their AGMs they will undoubtedly celebrate their profits, self-congratulate on miniscule policy tweaks, and try to ignore the clamour of climate criticism.   

ActionAid research last year showed that these banks are financing an astonishing amount of fossil-fuel and industrial agriculture activities in the Global South, causing land grabs, deforestation, water and soil pollution and loss of livelihoods – all compounding the injustice to communities also getting routinely hit by droughts, floods and cyclones thanks to climate change.  

HSBC, for example, is the largest European financer of fossil fuels and agribusiness in the Global South. Barclays is the largest European bank financier to fossil fuels around the world. And Citibank is the largest US financier of fossil fuels in the Global South. The banks have so much power, and so much culpability, much more than most people realise. But they want us to forget the fact that they are working hand in hand with, and profiting from, the industries that are wrecking the planet.  

The banks can actually turn off the taps. They can end the finance flows that are fuelling the climate crisis. So to avert catastrophic climate change, the fossil-financing banks must start saying no to the corporations destroying the planet.  

But it’s not only private finance that is flawed – public funds are being misused as well. Governments are using far more of their public funds to provide subsidies or tax breaks for fossil fuels and industrial agriculture corporations, than they are for climate action. This is ridiculous – it’s hurting the planet, and its hurting people.  

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Public funds instead need to be redirected towards just transitions that address climate change and inequality.  

There is growing appetite for climate action. But this just isn’t yet matched by willingness to pay for it. Or even to stop profiting from climate destruction. 

COP29 finance goal

This year’s COP29 climate talks will be a critical test of rich countries’ commitment to securing a liveable planet. The world’s poorest countries are already bearing the spiralling costs of a warming planet. So far they have only received begrudging, tokenistic pennies from the rich polluting countries to help them cope. The offer of loans instead of grants in the name of climate finance is just rubbing salt into the wounds. 

If we want to unleash climate action on a scale to save the planet, rich countries at COP29 will need to agree a far more ambitious new climate finance goal based on grants, not loans. 

Because if we want to save our planet, we will actually need to cover the costs. 

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Tensions rise over who will contribute to new climate finance goal

Last month the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank held their Spring meetings in Washington DC. These institutions are powerful symbols of the planet’s dysfunctional finance systems which urgently need fixing. The World Bank is financing fossil fuels yet being extremely secretive about it. The IMF is pushing climate-devastated countries deeper into debt that often requires further fossil extraction for repayment.

Even as they brand themselves as responsible channels for climate finance, the world’s most powerful financial institutions are pushing our planet to the brink. Their stated aim to get “bigger and better” really amounts to all-out push to get “bigger” but only token tweaks to get “better”.  The Spring meetings ended with business-as-usual backslapping. But if they were taking climate change and its consequences seriously, at the very least, the IMF and World Bank would stop financing fossil fuels and cancel the debts that are pushing climate-vulnerable countries into a vicious cycle.  

Will blossom of reform bear fruit? Spring Meetings leave too much to do

All of these finance flows need fixing. At the moment, the global financial system is better designed to escalate – rather than address – climate change, vulnerability and inequality. The activists, youth and frontline communities who filled the streets last month hope that their calls to stop financing destruction will be heard in the boardrooms and conferences on the other side of the world. 

They say that money talks. This is the year that the climate movement is going to make sure it listens.  

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Sagar Doshi of Nuvama recommends buying these three stocks tomorrow

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Sagar Doshi of Nuvama recommends buying these three stocks tomorrow

Stock Market News: The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, began the financial year 2024-2025 on a positive note. Both the frontline indices gained over a percent in the month of April.

On Tuesday, the domestic equity indices succumbed to fag-end selloff and ended lower for the day. The benchmark Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty hit their record high on April 30.

The Sensex ended 188.50 points, or 0.25%, lower at 74,482.78, while the Nifty 50 settled 38.55 points, or 0.17%, lower at 22,604.85.

Investors now watch out for the US Federal Reserve meeting outcome for further clues on interest rate cuts. 

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The Indian stock market is closed on Wednesday, May 1, on account of Maharashtra Day.

Read here: Share market holidays 2024: Is Indian stock market closed on 1st May?

Nifty 50 Outlook by Sagar Doshi

Nifty hit a fresh all time high on the last trading day of calendar month – April 2024 ending with MTD gains of 1.24%. A huge round of short covering was seen on index futures from the FII desk, where they cut the short position from 99,000 to less than half of 45,000 contracts. 

Initial targets of 22,700+ have been complete and Nifty could consolidate between 22,550 and 22,800 for this truncated week. Any breakdown below 22,550 is likely to allow further negative views on the index. For now a range bound view is likely to play out for the week to come while broader markets are likely to steal the show on the buying front, said Sagar Doshi, Senior Vice President- Research, Nuvama Professional Clients Group.

Also Read: April Market Review: Nifty 50 soars for 3rd straight month, gains 1.2%; metal index top performer

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Bank Nifty Outlook

Bank Nifty dropped close to 750 points from its intraday highs in the last hour of trade on Tuesday, negating its outperformance of this week over the Nifty. Yesterday’s price action suggests that an underperformance of Bank Nifty over the Nifty is likely to continue for the next couple of trading sessions which is likely to drag the index lower towards 48,600 odd, Doshi said.

Erosion of futures premium in the start of fresh derivative series is also suggesting some cool off on long positions for the index. Bank Nifty has also completed its Fibonacci Extension targets of 49,800 and faced rejection from the same. All of these point towards an underperformance for the coming week on the index, he added.

Also Read: Stocks to buy or sell: Sumeet Bagadia recommends 5 breakout stocks for tomorrow

Top Stock Recommendations by Sagar Doshi

On top stock recommendations, Sagar Doshi has recommended three stocks for tomorrow – L&T Finance, Prestige Estates Projects and Lupin.

L&T Finance | BUY | Stop Loss: 161.00 | Target: 179.00

L&T Finance shares witnessed a change in trend early 2023 as the stock gave a breakout from the trendline active since the all-time high. Since then, all swing breakouts have resulted in a favorable trade. L&T Finance stock has also been an outperformer in the sector. A swing breakout with a rise in volumes indicates the reinforcement of bullish momentum.  

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Prestige Estates Projects | Buy | Stop Loss: 1,330 | Target: 1,475

Prestige Estates Projects shares have registered a fresh all time high close for itself. Momentum indicator has also crossed its previous swing high indicating bullish momentum in the stock.   

Lupin | Buy | Stop Loss: 1,587.00 | Target: 1,760

Lupin share price ended its 1 month consolidation as prices closed above 1,640 for the first time since mid-March. A positive cross over in momentum indicator affirms this bullish swing is likely to continue further.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.

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Published: 01 May 2024, 08:08 AM IST

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