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Deficits boost U.S. debt but also inflate corporate profits and stocks, so reducing red ink could trigger a financial crisis, analysts warn | Fortune

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Deficits boost U.S. debt but also inflate corporate profits and stocks, so reducing red ink could trigger a financial crisis, analysts warn | Fortune

Massive budget deficits have sent U.S. debt soaring past $38 trillion, but they have also become the primary driver of corporate profits and stock valuations, according to Research Affiliates.

In a recent note, Chris Brightman, who is a partner, senior advisor, and board member at the firm, and Alex Pickard, senior vice president for research, traced the historical trend between the deficit and how earnings are recycled to inflate asset prices.

“In the financialized U.S. economy, each dollar of deficit spending may flow into a dollar of corporate profit,” they wrote.

Annual budget deficits have reached $2 trillion, with debt-servicing costs alone hitting $1 trillion. As federal spending exceeds revenue by wider margins, the Treasury Department must issue greater volumes of bonds.

Much of the money the government raises by selling debt goes into consumers’ pockets, primarily via entitlement payments, which eventually boost profits, according to Research Affiliates.

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But for decades, companies largely didn’t invest those profits to expand their capacity. Due to intense global competition, especially from China, returns from U.S domestic production were kept low. And even the money that is invested wound up replacing depreciated capacity rather than expanding it.

As a result, companies returned much of their capital to shareholders in the form of buybacks and dividends, which were plowed back into financial markets, often in price-insensitive passive funds that inflate valuations, the report argued.

“Mandated to remain fully invested, these funds then recycle the inflows to purchase stocks in proportion to their market capitalization indifferent to valuation, thus bidding up prices without any change in fundamentals,” Brightman and Pickard wrote.

They pointed to a real-world experiment that reinforces their thesis. During the late 1990s, the federal government briefly erased its budget deficit and actually boasted a surplus.

That came as the booming economy helped lift revenue while cuts to federal welfare programs limited spending. During this period, corporate profits fell too, they added.

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This dependence on federal deficits has left financial markets increasingly fragile, the report warned, as corporate earnings have shifted away from relying on returns from private investment.

“Reversion to a healthier macroeconomic environment of declining deficit spending and greater net investment may cause sharp declines in both corporate profits and valuation multiples and likely trigger a financial crisis with politically toxic consequences,” Brightman and Pickard concluded.

“Ironically, the more palatable option may be to remain on the current path until a financial crisis imposes on us the discipline that we are unwilling to impose on ourselves.”

Changing U.S. debt market

Despite surging revenue from President Donald Trump’s tariffs, debt continues to pile up, drawing alarm bells from Wall Street heavyweights like JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon and Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio.

Meanwhile, Trump plans to grow defense spending by 50%, pushing it to $1.5 trillion a year and blowing up the debt even more.

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At the same time, the holders of U.S. debt have shifted drastically over the past decade, tilting more toward profit-driven private investors and away from foreign governments that are less sensitive to prices.

That threatens to turn the U.S. financial system more fragile in times of market stress, according to Geng Ngarmboonanant, a managing director at JPMorgan and former deputy chief of staff to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.

Foreign governments accounted for more than 40% of Treasury holdings in the early 2010s, up from just over 10% in the mid-1990s, he wrote in a New York Times op-ed last month. This reliable bloc of investors allowed the U.S. to borrow vast sums at artificially low rates. Now, they make up less than 15% of the overall Treasury market.

To be sure, the federal budget deficit isn’t the only driver of growth. The AI boom has set off a massive investment wave, spurring demand for chips, data centers, and construction materials.

But so-called AI hyperscalers are also turning to the bond market to raise capital for annual expenditures of hundreds of billions of dollars. And their debt issuance represents more competition to the Treasury Department, which is looking to ensure investors continue absorbing the fresh supply of debt it must sell.

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In a note last week, Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Slok pointed out that Wall Street estimates for the volume of investment grade debt that’s on the way this year reach as high as $2.25 trillion.

“The significant increase in hyperscaler issuance raises questions about who will be the marginal buyer of IG paper,” he said. “Will it come from Treasury purchases and hence put upward pressure on the level of rates? Or might it come from mortgage purchases, putting upward pressure on mortgage spreads?”

Finance

Mum reveals grim property reality facing millions of parents: ‘Screwed’

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Mum reveals grim property reality facing millions of parents: ‘Screwed’

The Great Australian dream of home ownership is already slipping away for many young Aussies. And many are worried that things are only going to get worse for their own kids.

New mum Sarah Rugg would “absolutely love” to have a place to call her own. But the 36-year-old told Yahoo Finance it’s not something she and her partner can realistically afford to do in Sydney.

The couple’s daughter, Maggie, is just five months old, but Rugg is already worried about her financial future and whether she’ll be able to get onto the property ladder herself when she grows up.

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“Unless there’s a crash in the market, the way it’s going and as interest rates keep rising and the cost of living, it’s going to be so hard for them,” Rugg said.

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“We’re trying to start helping her out now and put some money aside for her so when she does get to an age, she’ll at least have something.

“If everything keeps going the way it’s going, absolutely, it’s going to be even harder for them for this generation.”

Do you have a story to share? Contact tamika.seeto@yahooinc.com

Rugg is currently saving up for her first home, but says she realistically won't be able to afford to buy in Sydney.
Rugg is currently saving up for her first home, but says she realistically won’t be able to afford to buy in Sydney. · Source: Sarah Rugg

Rugg and her partner, who works in construction, are currently saving up for her first home deposit. But they are still “way far off”.

Rugg is currently on 12 months maternity leave from her hotel management job, but is now weighing up whether she returns to work early to help manage costs and save further.

“We definitely won’t be able to afford in Sydney. We weren’t the smartest savers when we were younger, both of us. So now we’re in a position where we’re quite screwed,” she said.

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“The property market has jumped so much in such a short amount of time that anyone like us that didn’t really think logically about that, is now screwed.”

Parents anxious over kids’ financial futures

Rugg isn’t the only parent with these anxieties.

New research from Sharesies found 69 per cent of parents are anxious about their kids’ financial future, with 22 per cent believing their kids will be worse off than themselves.

Half of parents are worried their kids may never own a home. Others are worried about their kids’ ability to access the same experiences they had, with 44 per cent fearing they’ll miss out on experiences like gap years or further study and 41 per cent worried they will have to sacrifice sport and after-school activities.

Sharesies co-founder Brooke Roberts told Yahoo Finance the research highlighted that a strong majority of parents were feeling uncertain of their kids’ financial future.

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Early retirees and financially independent people share their top savings tips

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Early retirees and financially independent people share their top savings tips

If you’re looking to save more, early retirees and financially independent individuals say the goal isn’t necessarily to cut out every small pleasure. It’s to be more intentional about where your money is going, and to make sure more of it stays with you.

Business Insider rounded up the top savings tips from people who have reached financial independence, retired early, or made major progress toward their big money goals.

Not every tactic is realistic for every household, but the common thread is to make saving intentional rather than accidental.

Know your numbers and avoid lifestyle creep

Regardless of your goal, keeping more of your income starts with knowing your numbers: what you earn, what you spend, and what you actually save. It’s difficult to improve your savings rate if you don’t know how much money is leaving your account each month.

A good place to start is by combing through credit-card statements and tracking where your dollars are going. First, make sure you’re spending less than you earn. Then, calculate your savings rate. What categories are costing more than you expected? Where could you reasonably cut back?

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And if you start earning more, don’t automatically start spending more.

For New York City couple Alex Nathanson and Josette Chang, avoiding lifestyle creep was central to reaching financial independence. They chose not to upgrade to a larger apartment, even though they could afford to.

“Moving up would be just riding the hedonic treadmill,” Nathanson said. “You get a bigger place now, and a few years later you’ll want a bigger place again. We consciously decided to get off that treadmill.”

Treat your savings like profit

Steve Antonioni, who has saved up “war chests” to fund mini-retirements, recommends thinking about your personal finances like a business.

“I think having the right attitude around savings is very, very important,” he said, adding that “even the word ‘saving’ kind of messes you up from the first place.”

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People use different terms to describe corporate finances and personal finances. Businesses have “revenue” and “profit,” whereas individuals have “income” and “savings.” Antonioni finds it helpful to draw a direct comparison between the two.

“A business is trying to earn a profit, right? It’s the exact same thing for you — your savings are your profit,” he said. “You want to run your life in such a way that you’re earning a profit, because that profit is yours. That goes directly to you.”

One way to increase your personal “profit” is to make saving automatic before you have a chance to spend the money. That could mean setting up recurring transfers to a savings or brokerage account, increasing retirement contributions after a raise, or separating spending money from long-term savings.

Try a “no-spend month”

Michela Allocca, who quit her corporate job to create personal-finance content full time, prefers setting spending “boundaries” rather than strict rules.

Sometimes, those boundaries are about behavior rather than categories. For example, she avoids shopping on her phone and doesn’t keep her credit card near her computer.

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“That creates friction in the buying process,” she said. If she really wants something, she has to get up, retrieve her card, and make a more intentional decision.

Another strategy she uses is a “no-spend month,” in which she sets clear parameters for what she is and isn’t allowed to spend on. During one no-spend month, for example, she chose not to buy clothes or beauty products.

“But I am letting myself go out to dinner once a week and spend money on my hobbies,” she said. The idea is that setting guidelines for a defined period of time can make spending boundaries feel more manageable.

Slash the Big 3

To substantially increase your savings rate, take a close look at three major expenses: housing, transportation, and food. Often called “the big three,” these categories are typically among the largest expenses most households face.

“If you learn how to master those big expenses, it will free up a ton of money so you don’t have to stress about the small stuff,” said Josh Lupo, who retired in his 30s with his wife, Ali.

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The couple used a strategy known as “house hacking” to offset their housing costs. Other ways to lower the big three include sharing a car or using public transit, cooking meals at home, and living with roommates.

Focus on earning more

Cutting expenses can help widen the gap between what you earn and what you spend, but especially in a high-cost environment, increasing income can be another important lever.

When reflecting on the money moves she made in her 20s that helped her reach millionaire status by 30, Allocca said increasing her income was a major factor. After all, there’s a limit to how much you can cut, while earning more can expand what’s possible.

“The reason I’ve been able to hit these big numbers is because I increased my income outside my corporate job,” she said. “It’s not the sexiest thing — not everyone wants a side hustle or to start a business — but that’s the big driver.”

Still, higher earnings only help if you avoid inflating your lifestyle at the same pace.

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“No matter how much you increase your income, you have to avoid lifestyle creep,” Allocca said. “Otherwise, you’re not actually going to make progress.”

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Your Money: Affordability, inflation and your financial plan

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Your Money: Affordability, inflation and your financial plan
Bruce Helmer and Peg Webb

Inflation has been dominating the headlines. But what most people are actually feeling in their daily lives is something different: affordability pressure.

There’s an important distinction. Inflation measures the rate at which prices are rising. Affordability, on the other hand, reflects whether your income can keep up with the level of those prices. And even as inflation has cooled from its recent peaks, the reality is that many costs have reset higher and stayed there.

That’s why things may still feel tight. Over the past five years, consumer prices have risen more than 20%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Even in the past year, prices rose about 3.3%, while real wages increased just 0.2%. For many households, incomes are still playing catch-up.

This gap is where affordability pressure lives and it shows up in everyday life.

Affordability and your pocketbook

Housing is often the biggest factor. Roughly one-third of U.S. households are considered “cost-burdened,” meaning they spend more than 30% of their income on housing, according to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. Add in higher mortgage rates that have more than doubled since their pandemic lows, and the pressure becomes even more pronounced.

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It doesn’t stop there. Insurance premiums have climbed. Grocery bills remain elevated. Interest rates on credit cards and auto loans are significantly higher. And many people are still anchoring to what things used to cost, which makes today’s environment feel even more uncomfortable.

In short, affordability stress shows up in your monthly cash flow, not just on paper.

Inflation and your portfolio

Inflation doesn’t impact all investments equally. Cash, while stable in nominal terms, tends to lose purchasing power over time. Longer-term bonds can be sensitive to rising interest rates. Stocks, especially companies with pricing power, may be better positioned to adapt. Real assets like real estate or infrastructure can also provide a degree of inflation resilience.

The takeaway isn’t to overhaul your portfolio every time an economic indicator changes. It’s to build a resilient, all-weather strategy that potentially can outlast it. Maintaining appropriate equity exposure, diversifying across asset types, and managing interest rate sensitivity are all part of that process.

Planning considerations in the current environment

A strong financial plan anticipates how higher costs affect your life. That means shifting the focus from net worth to cash flow. Can your plan absorb higher recurring expenses? Do you have enough flexibility to adjust spending if needed? Are you managing taxes in a way that preserves after-tax income?

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Thinking about moving? Keep these realities in mind

For some households, the most powerful affordability lever is changing the cost structure entirely. That’s why many Americans are now considering moves from higher-cost to lower-cost states. Lower housing costs, reduced taxes, and a generally lower cost of living can improve cash flow and reduce the pressure on a financial plan, especially in retirement.

But a move isn’t a guaranteed win.

Transaction costs alone, related to selling a home, buying another and relocating, can take years to recover. Tax differences aren’t always straightforward; lower income taxes may be offset by higher property taxes or insurance costs. Healthcare access and quality vary by region. And lifestyle factors, like proximity to family or community ties, can be just as important as financial ones.

A move that may look good on paper still has to work in real life.

Practical steps you can take now

You don’t need to make dramatic changes to respond to this environment. But making thoughtful, small adjustments can make a difference.

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Consider locking in fixed costs where possible, especially when it comes to debt. Review variable expenses, including insurance and subscriptions. Maintain a healthy emergency reserve to absorb unexpected increases. And focus on after-tax income, not just what you earn on paper.

If your plan is solid, you shouldn’t need to overhaul it; you just need to make smart adjustments.

Inflation tells you what is happening in the economy. Affordability tells you what’s happening in your life. And while prices may not be rising as quickly as they were, they’re still higher than they used to be. A well-constructed financial plan accounts for that reality, builds in flexibility, and helps you stay ahead of your cost of living over time.

You may not be able to control inflation, but you can control how prepared your plan is for it.

Bruce Helmer and Peg Webb are financial advisers at Wealth Enhancement Group and co-hosts of “Your Money” on WCCO 830 AM on Sunday mornings. Email Bruce and Peg at yourmoney@wealthenhancement.com. Advisory services offered through Wealth Enhancement Advisory Services LLC, a registered investment adviser and affiliate of Wealth Enhancement Group.

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