Finance
China's Ministry of Finance is taking aim at local debt problems before tackling broader economic challenges
The 597-meter high Goldin Finance 117 Tower in Tianjin, China, started construction in September 2008, but still stands unfinished in this picture, taken Aug. 28, 2024.
Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images
BEIJING — China’s Ministry of Finance press briefing over the weekend underscored how it is focused on tackling local government debt problems, instead of the stimulus markets have been waiting for.
In his opening remarks on Saturday, Minister of Finance Lan Fo’an laid out four measures, starting with increasing support for local governments in resolving debt risks. It was only after he outlined those four points that Lan teased that the country was looking to increase debt and the deficit.
“The press conference is consistent with our view that addressing local government financing struggles is a priority,” Robin Xing, chief China economist at Morgan Stanley, and his team said in a report Sunday. They also expect that the central government will play a larger role in debt restructuring and housing market stabilization.
“However, we believe upsizing consumption support and social welfare spending will likely remain gradual,” the Morgan Stanley analysts said.
China’s real estate market slump has cut into a significant source of revenue for local governments, many of which struggled financially even before needing to spend on Covid-19 measures. Meanwhile, lackluster consumption and slow growth overall have multiplied calls for more fiscal stimulus.
The four policies announced by the Ministry of Finance are focused more on tackling structural issues, Chinese economic think tank CF40 said in a report Saturday.
“They are not specifically aimed at addressing macroeconomic issues such as insufficient aggregate demand or declining price levels through Keynesian-style fiscal expansion,” the report said, in reference to expectations of greater government intervention.
CF40 estimates China does not need additional fiscal funding to achieve the full-year growth target of around 5%, as long as the spending that it has already announced happens by the end of the year.
Local governments drag on domestic demand
Finance Minister Lan on Saturday did say the central government would allow local governments to use 400 billion yuan ($56.54 billion) in bonds to support spending on payroll and basic services.
He added that a large plan to address local governments’ hidden debt would be announced in the near future, without specifying when. Lan claimed that hidden debt levels at the end of 2023 were half what they were in 2018.
Historically, local governments were responsible for more than 85% of expenditure but only received about 60% of tax revenue, Rhodium Group said in 2021.
Constrained local government finances have “contributed to the downward pressure on prices,” the International Monetary Fund said in an Aug. 30 report on China.
The core consumer price index, which strips out more volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.1% in September, compared to a year ago. That’s the slowest since February 2021, according to the Wind Information database.
To Morgan Stanley, resolving local government debt problems is a “critical step” toward halting the declining trend of prices — almost just as important as stimulus directed at boosting demand.
Waiting for another meeting
After a flurry of policy announcements in the last few weeks, investors are looking ahead to a meeting of China’s parliament, expected at end of the month. China’s legal process requires it to approval national budget changes. The meeting last year, which ended on Oct. 24, oversaw a rare increase in the fiscal deficit to 3.8%, from 3%, according to state media.
Analysts are divided over the specific amount of fiscal support that is needed, if any.
“Whether it’s 2 trillion [yuan] or 10 trillion, for us, it actually doesn’t make so much of a difference,” Vikas Pershad, fund manager at M&G Investments, said Monday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.” “Our bet on China is a multi-year bet. The Chinese equities are too low in valuation.”
He emphasized the policy direction is “on the right path,” regardless of the stimulus size.
Pershad has talked about buying opportunities in Chinese stocks since January but he said Monday that the latest flurry of activity from the region hasn’t made him any more active in the sector.
China’s policymakers have generally remained conservative. Beijing did not hand out cash to consumers after the pandemic, unlike Hong Kong or the U.S.
Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China economics at Capital Economics, said at least 2.5 trillion yuan of additional funding is needed to keep growth around 5% this year and next.
“Anything less than that, and I think the risk really is the economy just continues to slow next year given all the structural headwinds that it faces,” he said Monday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.”
Evans-Pritchard insisted that fiscal policy is more critical for addressing the latest economic slump since China’s other support tools have previously included real estate and credit, which are not as effective this time.
“It’s hard to put a specific number on it because obviously there’s a lot of talk of recapitalizing the banks, dealing with the existing debt problems among the local governments,” he said. “If a lot of the additional borrowing goes into those areas it actually does not stimulate current demand that significantly.”
— CNBC’s Sonia Heng contributed to this report.
Finance
2 Aspira charter high schools to close by April due to financial issues
Chicago Public Schools is shutting down two Aspira charter high schools by the middle of the year, following financial issues over the past year.
School leaders are calling the move “unprecedented.”
Students at the Aspira Business and Finance High School at 2989 N. Milwaukee Ave. in Avondale held a walkout right outside of Aspira after the CEO said they only have enough money to stay open for the next four to five weeks.
Students wanted their questions answered as to why they’re being transferred to other schools.
Angelina Mota is a senior at the high school and said she is concerned about her future.
“It’s very difficult, especially for us, hearing that credits might not go all the way with us. That our graduation might just be taken back. It’s very disappointing,” she said.
This is the first time a CPS school will close before the end of the school year. Both Aspira and CPS said the charter network won’t have the funds to stay open past April.
“The burden on our seniors has got to be… they don’t give a damn about the kids. The seniors,” Aspira of Illinois CEO Edgar Lopez said while fighting back his emotions.
The school is facing a $2.9 million deficit, impacting 540 students and dozens of staff.
CPS said they have already given more than $2.5 million to the charter school to help sustain operations. They said under Illinois law, it reached the legal limit of funding it can provide.
This has been a year-long effort in compliance with state charter school law.
In a statement, CPS said, “Aspira has not submitted required documentation, including evidence of funding to support operations through this school year.”
The documents CPS said are overdue include the school’s fiscal year 25 financial audit, general ledger, and payroll.
“We’re not hiding nothing. The financial documents that they were asking for, Jose told them, we’ll have them to you by Friday. Then they send a letter by Thursday. They didn’t even give us a chance,” Lopez said.
CPS said they’re initiating this due to the lack of financial transparency and solvency.
“We know we don’t want to go anywhere else because we’re used to the routine we have here,” said student Arichely Molina.
“Please let us (stay) open. at least until we graduate,” Mota said.
CPS said their main goal is to ensure the kids have a safety net as they transition to another school.
The second school is located at 3986 W. Barry Ave., also in the Avondale neighborhood.
Finance
Why has the UAE closed its stock exchanges?
The United Arab Emirates has closed its main stock exchanges amid a widening conflict in the region following the United States and Israel’s attacks on Iran.
The UAE’s financial regulator on Sunday announced that its key exchanges in Dubai and Abu Dhabi would not immediately reopen after the weekend break amid the fallout of the US-Israeli attacks that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
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The announcement that the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange and Dubai Financial Market would remain closed on Monday and Tuesday came after the UAE was hit with hundreds of Iranian missile and drone attacks, including a strike on Abu Dhabi’s main airport that killed one person and wounded seven others.
The UAE’s Capital Markets Authority said in a statement that it would continue to monitor developments in the region and “assess the situation on an ongoing basis, taking any further measures as necessary”.
Here is all you need to know about the move.
Why has the UAE decided to shut its main stock exchanges?
The financial regulator did not elaborate on the rationale for its decision, only saying that it was taken in accordance with its “supervisory and regulatory role” in managing the country’s financial markets.
While closing the stock market outside of scheduled breaks is relatively unusual worldwide, especially in the era of electronic trading, it is not unprecedented.
Typically, when financial authorities halt stock trading during a crisis, it is because they are concerned about panic selling.
During periods of extreme volatility, such as wars and financial crises, investors often rush to sell their holdings to avoid suffering big losses.
As investors sell their stocks, the market value falls further.
This dynamic can spur a vicious cycle that, left unchecked, can lead to a full-blown market crash.
Since the US-Israeli attacks on Iran, stock markets around the world have seen significant – though not catastrophic – losses, while oil prices have risen sharply.
Saudi Arabia’s benchmark Tadawul All Share Index fell more than 4 percent on Sunday, while Egypt’s EGX 30 dropped about 2.5 percent.
In Asia, major stock markets closed lower on Monday, with Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index down about 1.4 percent and 2.2 percent, respectively.
The practice of shutting the market to prevent panic selling is controversial among economists and investors.
Closing the market prevents investors from accessing cash they might need in a hurry.
Critics also argue that such closures only exacerbate the sense of panic they seek to prevent and distort important signals about the market.
“Investors don’t like uncertainty, and at times of market stress, liquidity is most important. It appears the UAE just took that away,” Burdin Hickok, a professor at New York University’s School of Professional Studies, told Al Jazeera.
“This move has the potential of diminishing the status of Dubai as a true major market and weaken investor confidence in the Dubai markets. There has to be some concern about capital flight and negative ripple effects.”
Has this happened before?
The UAE has closed its stock exchanges before, though not due to regional conflict.
In 2022, the UAE halted trading as part of a period of mourning declared to mark the death of President Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan.
The emirate announced a similar pause following the death of Dubai’s ruler, Sheikh Maktoum bin Rashid Al Maktoum, in 2006.
“Historically, to the best of my knowledge, no Middle Eastern state, including Israel, has closed its stock exchange during a time of regional conflict,” Hickok said.
“In prior conflicts, Israel has modified hours of their exchange, but we are talking hours, not days.”
Other countries have shuttered their stock markets during periods of major turmoil in recent years.
After Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, authorities shut the Moscow Exchange for nearly a month.
In 2011, Egypt shut its stock exchange for nearly two months as the country was grappling with the upheaval of the Arab Spring.
After the September 11, 2001, attacks on the United States, the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq halted trading for six days, the longest suspension since the Great Depression.
How important is the UAE’s stock market?
The UAE is a relatively small player in the world of capital markets, though it has made significant inroads in recent years.
The Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange and Dubai Financial Market have a combined market capitalisation of about $1.1 trillion.
By comparison, the New York Stock Exchange, the world’s biggest bourse, has a market capitalisation of about $44 trillion.
Saudi Arabia’s Saudi Exchange, the biggest exchange in the Middle East, is valued at more than $3 trillion.
Still, the UAE’s stature among financial markets has been on the rise.
Before the latest crisis, UAE-listed stocks had been on a winning streak.
The Dubai Financial Market General Index, which includes companies such as Emirates NBD and Emaar Properties, rose more than 29 percent in the 12 months to February 27.
Haytham Aoun, an assistant professor of finance at the American University in Dubai, said while the UAE could see some outflow of foreign capital, the country’s economy remains on a strong footing.
“A temporary stock market closure will have a limited impact on long-term economic variables, provided the fundamentals remain strong,” Aoun told Al Jazeera.
“In the UAE case, it’s a precautionary intervention, and not a sign of structural weakness.”
Finance
Canton High School students find success in personal finance
CANTON, Miss. (WLBT) – A group of juniors at Canton High School has won back-to-back state championships in Mississippi’s Personal Finance Challenge.
The team’s work can be seen through the school’s reality fair, where students are assigned careers and salaries and must make the same financial decisions adults face each month.
Teena Ruth, a personal finance teacher, said the exercise resonates beyond the classroom.
“It’s an eye-opening experience,” Ruth said. “They kind of see what it’s like for even their parents when they have to make these decisions every day — when they are writing out those checks.”
For student Jalynn Dunigan, the program carries personal significance.
“To be known for something else outside of cheer and not just what I do on a court, on a field. I can do something and put my brains to it and people can know that I’m not just pretty,” Dunigan said. “I’m smart as well.”
Student Henser Vicente said the team’s success sends a broader message.
“We’re making a statement that we’re not what you think we are,” Vicente said. “Like, we’re greater than what you think. We can do better than what you think we can do.”
A proposed financial literacy bill in Mississippi would require students to pass a semester of personal finance as a graduation requirement.
Alexandria Luckett said the team’s national success is already motivating others at the school.
“I’m so happy that people are getting more involved in things like this and stepping out of their comfort zone and just putting themselves out there,” Luckett said. “Because I know there’s a lot of shy students [who] don’t necessarily join clubs or anything. So, when they see a group like this going to nationals two times in a row, I feel like that motivates a lot of students.”
Nelly Rosales said competing at the national level has given the team a platform beyond the competition floor.
“We’ve gone to Cleveland, Ohio, we’ve gone to Atlanta, and then hopefully this year we get to go out of state again,” Rosales said. “Being able to be a role model to a lot of children — like especially Hispanic girls who don’t see a lot of role [models] especially in the community — being able to be a role model is a really big thing.”
The students are currently gearing up for this year’s State Personal Finance Challenge set to take place next month.
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