Connect with us

Finance

China's Ministry of Finance is taking aim at local debt problems before tackling broader economic challenges

Published

on

China's Ministry of Finance is taking aim at local debt problems before tackling broader economic challenges

The 597-meter high Goldin Finance 117 Tower in Tianjin, China, started construction in September 2008, but still stands unfinished in this picture, taken Aug. 28, 2024.

Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images

BEIJING — China’s Ministry of Finance press briefing over the weekend underscored how it is focused on tackling local government debt problems, instead of the stimulus markets have been waiting for.

In his opening remarks on Saturday, Minister of Finance Lan Fo’an laid out four measures, starting with increasing support for local governments in resolving debt risks. It was only after he outlined those four points that Lan teased that the country was looking to increase debt and the deficit.

Advertisement

“The press conference is consistent with our view that addressing local government financing struggles is a priority,” Robin Xing, chief China economist at Morgan Stanley, and his team said in a report Sunday. They also expect that the central government will play a larger role in debt restructuring and housing market stabilization.

“However, we believe upsizing consumption support and social welfare spending will likely remain gradual,” the Morgan Stanley analysts said.

China’s real estate market slump has cut into a significant source of revenue for local governments, many of which struggled financially even before needing to spend on Covid-19 measures. Meanwhile, lackluster consumption and slow growth overall have multiplied calls for more fiscal stimulus.

The four policies announced by the Ministry of Finance are focused more on tackling structural issues, Chinese economic think tank CF40 said in a report Saturday.

“They are not specifically aimed at addressing macroeconomic issues such as insufficient aggregate demand or declining price levels through Keynesian-style fiscal expansion,” the report said, in reference to expectations of greater government intervention.

CF40 estimates China does not need additional fiscal funding to achieve the full-year growth target of around 5%, as long as the spending that it has already announced happens by the end of the year.

Advertisement

Local governments drag on domestic demand

Finance Minister Lan on Saturday did say the central government would allow local governments to use 400 billion yuan ($56.54 billion) in bonds to support spending on payroll and basic services.

He added that a large plan to address local governments’ hidden debt would be announced in the near future, without specifying when. Lan claimed that hidden debt levels at the end of 2023 were half what they were in 2018.

Historically, local governments were responsible for more than 85% of expenditure but only received about 60% of tax revenue, Rhodium Group said in 2021.

Constrained local government finances have “contributed to the downward pressure on prices,” the International Monetary Fund said in an Aug. 30 report on China.

The core consumer price index, which strips out more volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.1% in September, compared to a year ago. That’s the slowest since February 2021, according to the Wind Information database.

Advertisement

To Morgan Stanley, resolving local government debt problems is a “critical step” toward halting the declining trend of prices — almost just as important as stimulus directed at boosting demand.

Waiting for another meeting

After a flurry of policy announcements in the last few weeks, investors are looking ahead to a meeting of China’s parliament, expected at end of the month. China’s legal process requires it to approval national budget changes. The meeting last year, which ended on Oct. 24, oversaw a rare increase in the fiscal deficit to 3.8%, from 3%, according to state media.

Analysts are divided over the specific amount of fiscal support that is needed, if any.

“Whether it’s 2 trillion [yuan] or 10 trillion, for us, it actually doesn’t make so much of a difference,” Vikas Pershad, fund manager at M&G Investments, said Monday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.” “Our bet on China is a multi-year bet. The Chinese equities are too low in valuation.”

He emphasized the policy direction is “on the right path,” regardless of the stimulus size.

Advertisement

Pershad has talked about buying opportunities in Chinese stocks since January but he said Monday that the latest flurry of activity from the region hasn’t made him any more active in the sector.

China’s policymakers have generally remained conservative. Beijing did not hand out cash to consumers after the pandemic, unlike Hong Kong or the U.S.

Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China economics at Capital Economics, said at least 2.5 trillion yuan of additional funding is needed to keep growth around 5% this year and next.

“Anything less than that, and I think the risk really is the economy just continues to slow next year given all the structural headwinds that it faces,” he said Monday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.”

Evans-Pritchard insisted that fiscal policy is more critical for addressing the latest economic slump since China’s other support tools have previously included real estate and credit, which are not as effective this time.

Advertisement

“It’s hard to put a specific number on it because obviously there’s a lot of talk of recapitalizing the banks, dealing with the existing debt problems among the local governments,” he said. “If a lot of the additional borrowing goes into those areas it actually does not stimulate current demand that significantly.”

— CNBC’s Sonia Heng contributed to this report.

Continue Reading
Advertisement
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Finance

The brave new world of Open Finance

Published

on

The brave new world of Open Finance

Don Cardinal of Financial Data Exchange (FDX) explores how Open Finance extends beyond Open Banking, revolutionising financial data sharing.

 

 

Much ink has been spilt on the topic of Open Banking, but I wanted to take a step today into a larger world of Open Finance. Whereas Open Banking is most commonly associated with current accounts (checking, savings, credit cards), Open Finance is concerned with the totality of your financial world.

While current accounts are important in the personal financial management use case, when you look at more sophisticated needs, liability accounts like auto loans, home loans, and student loans are required to help give context to a personal balance sheet. Finally, the addition of investment and retirement accounts gives the wealth management user a full 360-degree view of the consumer’s financial health.

Advertisement

Additional use cases – such as account and balance verification, bill payment, and payroll needs like verification of income/employment and pay stub retrieval – along with the ability to retrieve tax forms like W2, 1098, 1099, and capital gain statements for tax preparation, round out the most common consumer demands for linking accounts.

These are all important use cases for consumers and small businesses, but it is also important to address why data providers like banks, brokers, and others would benefit from data sharing.

We know that one in three digitally-enabled consumers has shared access to their financial data in the last year and similar polls of financial institutions tell us that at least one-third (if not more) of their online banking traffic was credential-based access (screen scraping) to power these use cases.

Imagine if a data provider could reduce one-third of its entire load on its online infrastructure in favour of a portal 100 times more efficient than screen scraping. The introduction of secure APIs does just that. Lowering costs of hardware overall.

One of the other uses by data providers is data-in, to pre-fill new account applications as well as provide strong signals for Know Your Customer (KYC), including account tenure at a predecessor institution. Better data means faster, more accurate decisions leading to fewer abandons or declines, meaning more revenue for the institution.

Advertisement

As a banker for a number of years, one of the biggest questions we had was ‘What was our share of a given customer’s wallet?’ We often had to try to infer based on monies in and out, but with Open Finance, you can link to other institutions and know in real time what your share of wallet is. This allows you to be almost surgical in your marketing and product offering.

All this is made possible by secure, permissioned data sharing via a common API standard.

Looking forward

Avoid FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt). Many jurisdictions have implemented Open Banking (the UK, EU, Australia, Brazil, among others) and there has yet to be a mass exodus of consumers in any of these nations. Why? If you are confident in your product, your pricing, and your service, making data available via an API does nothing to incent consumers to leave, rather the opposite. The largest credit union in Brazil said at the FDX Spring 2024 Summit that they saw a net increase in digital engagement and accounts per customer after Open Banking was introduced.

A last bit of advice: APIs are a net new channel and will be the third leg in the digital stool. Online, Mobile, and API will be the troika. APIs are much more efficient and can deliver data that cannot be displayed visually. As you make your plans for 2025 and 2026 for your digital roadmap, you would be remiss in not including Open Finance APIs in your product mix. Your competitors are. 

This editorial piece was first published in The Paypers’ Open Finance Report 2024, the latest comprehensive market overview and analysis focusing on the key players and products within the Open Banking and Open Finance ecosystem. Download the full report to discover more insightful content.

Advertisement

About Don Cardinal  

Don Cardinal is Managing Director of Financial Data Exchange (FDX) and has led it since its inception. Previously, he spent over 20 years with Bank of America, serving as head of digital for its Military Bank, VP of Digital Banking & Senior VP of Information Security. Don holds 18 US patents and CPA, CISA, CISM certificates.

 

 

About FDX 

The Financial Data Exchange (FDX) is dedicated to unifying the financial industry around a common, interoperable, royalty-free standard for the secure and convenient access of permissioned consumer and business financial data: the FDX Application Programming Interface (FDX API). FDX is a global 501(c)(6) nonprofit organisation with no commercial interests operating in the US and Canada.

Continue Reading

Finance

Boost your finances in 2025: Experts share top New Year's money resolutions

Published

on

Boost your finances in 2025: Experts share top New Year's money resolutions

With holiday credit card bills starting to roll in, you might want to shift your New Year’s resolution from your waistline to your wallet.

In a Fox 32 money saver special report, we asked the experts for a little help on how to boost your finances in 2025.

Advertisement

SMART MONEY MOVES

Why you should care:

“Some of the resolutions, some of the tips we would recommend for your New Year resolutions, financially, is to plan for retirement,” said Chip Lupo, a writer and analyst at WalletHub.

Advertisement

Lupo said it’s critically important that you begin to build an emergency fund to avoid relying on high-interest credit cards during life’s unexpected moments.

“We’re in a situation now where, because of the inflationary economy, people are now relying on credit cards for everyday expenses when the primary objective of a credit card for most people is to have basically an emergency fund,” Lupo said.

Advertisement

Lupo said that wages aren’t keeping up with the rate of inflation, and people are turning to credit cards for the essentials such as food and gas, which leads to significant debt by the end of the year.

“I think a big area that lot of consumers can agree on was the rising living costs,” said consumer finance expert Andrea Woroch. “Inflation impacting how much they’re spending on housing, transportation, groceries as well as even health care.”

MAKE A GAME PLAN

Advertisement

What you can do:

Woroch said you need to get back to the basics – set a budget this year and follow it.

“A lot of people think of a budget as being really restrictive and while it does cap you on spending in certain areas, a budget allows you to see where you are potentially wasting money on things you don’t need,” Woroch said.

Advertisement

If you think setting up a budget can be overwhelming, Woroch said going into debt and having no money in savings can be even worse.

Not to mention, there are digital tools and apps to help you set a budget, like the “You Need a Budget” app, or YNAB.

Advertisement

“Saying you are going to pay off debt is not enough. You have to be specific with how much debt you are going to pay off and set a realistic goal,” Woroch said.

When you take on this financial resolution, Woroch said it’s important to have a plan in place. Use a balance transfer credit card or pay off the smallest balance first.

If you don’t have a plan, Woroch said you will likely just continue your cycle of debt.

Advertisement

Another tip from our experts, they both recommended taking advantage of the high interest rates being offered with online bank accounts or CD’s.

The Source: For this story, the Fox 32 Chicago Special Projects team spoke with leading personal finance experts Chip Lupo from WalletHub and Andrea Woroch.

Advertisement
Special ReportsPersonal FinanceNews
Continue Reading

Finance

Stacey Abrams-founded groups slapped with historic fine for campaign finance violations

Published

on

Stacey Abrams-founded groups slapped with historic fine for campaign finance violations

A pair of voting advocacy groups founded by failed Democrat Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams were hit with a historic fine by the Georgia Ethics Commission for violating campaign finance laws to bolster Abram’s 2018 election.  

“Today the State Ethics Commission entered into a consent agreement with the New Georgia Project and the New Georgia Project Action Fund for a total of $300,000,” the Georgia State Ethics Commission posted in a statement on Wednesday. “This certainly represents the largest fine imposed in the history of Georgia’s Ethics Commission, but it also appears to be the largest ethics fine ever imposed by any state ethics commission in the country related to an election and campaign finance case.”

Abrams founded the New Georgia Project in 2013 as part of an effort to register more minority voters and young voters. The organization was founded as a charity that can accept tax-deductible donations, while the New Georgia Project Action Fund worked as the organization’s fundraising arm. 

The groups admitted to failing to disclose about $4.2 million in contributions and $3.2 million in expenditures that were used during Abram’s election efforts in 2018, according to the commission’s consent order. The groups were hit with a total of 16 violations, including failing to register as a political committee and failure to disclose millions of dollars in political contributions.

STACEY ABRAMS SAYS TRUMP RE-ELECTION WAS NOT A ‘SEISMIC SHIFT’ OR ‘LANDSLIDE’

Advertisement

Stacey Abrams (Elijah Nouvelage/Getty Images/File)

The groups were accused of carrying out similar activity in 2019, when they reportedly failed to disclose $646,000 in contributions and $174,000 while advocating for a ballot initiative. 

STACEY ABRAMS ACCUSES CNN HOST OF ‘REPEATING DISINFORMATION’ ABOUT HER CASTING DOUBT ON 2018 ELECTION RESULTS
 

“This represents the largest and most significant instance of an organization illegally influencing our statewide elections in Georgia that we have ever discovered, and I believe this sends a clear message to both the public and potential bad actors moving forward that we will hold you accountable,” the ethics commission continued in its statement Wednesday. 

STACEY ABRAMS PRAISED ON ‘THE VIEW’ FOR NOT CONCEDING ELECTION, DEFENDS SAYING SHE ‘WON’ GEORGIA RACE IN 2018

Advertisement

Abrams stepped down from the group in 2017, with Sen. Raphael Warnock taking the reins as the New Georgia Project’s CEO from 2017 to 2019, the Associated Press reported. Warnock was elected as a U.S. senator from Georgia in 2020. 

Raphael Warnock speaking at church

Democrat Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock, who also serves as the head pastor at Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta, speaks from the pulpit. (Paras Griffin/Getty Images/File)

A spokesperson for Warnock’s Senate office told the AP that he was working “as a longtime champion for voting rights” and that he was not aware of campaign violations. The spokesperson added that “compliance decisions were not a part of that work.” Fox Digital also reached out to Warnock’s office for additional comment but did not immediately receive a reply. 

Abrams ran for governor of Georgia in 2018 and 2022, but lost to Republican Gov. Brian Kemp in both races. Abrams drew national attention after the 2018 race when she refused to concede to the Republican despite losing by 60,000 votes. 

STACEY ABRAMS ON NOT CONCEDING GEORGIA LOSS: WE SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO ‘LEGITIMATELY QUESTION’ SYSTEMS

Amid the 2018 race, she touted the New Georgia Project on her X account, which was called Twitter at the time.

Advertisement

“When Abrams sees a problem, she doesn’t wait for someone else to step up – she does it herself. So when she saw that 800,000 people of color in Georgia weren’t registered to vote, Abrams immediately set out to fix the problem & founded The New GA Project,” she tweeted. 

The New Georgia Project said in a comment provided to Fox News Digital that they are “glad to finally put this matter behind us” so the group can “fully devote its time and attention to its efforts to civically engage and register black, brown, and young voters in Georgia.”

CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP

“While we remain disappointed that the federal court ruling on the constitutionality of the Georgia Government Transparency and Campaign Finance Act was overturned on entirely procedural grounds, we accept this outcome and are eager to turn the page on activities that took place more than five years ago,” the group continued. 

Advertisement
Continue Reading
Advertisement

Trending