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China's Ministry of Finance is taking aim at local debt problems before tackling broader economic challenges

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China's Ministry of Finance is taking aim at local debt problems before tackling broader economic challenges

The 597-meter high Goldin Finance 117 Tower in Tianjin, China, started construction in September 2008, but still stands unfinished in this picture, taken Aug. 28, 2024.

Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images

BEIJING — China’s Ministry of Finance press briefing over the weekend underscored how it is focused on tackling local government debt problems, instead of the stimulus markets have been waiting for.

In his opening remarks on Saturday, Minister of Finance Lan Fo’an laid out four measures, starting with increasing support for local governments in resolving debt risks. It was only after he outlined those four points that Lan teased that the country was looking to increase debt and the deficit.

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“The press conference is consistent with our view that addressing local government financing struggles is a priority,” Robin Xing, chief China economist at Morgan Stanley, and his team said in a report Sunday. They also expect that the central government will play a larger role in debt restructuring and housing market stabilization.

“However, we believe upsizing consumption support and social welfare spending will likely remain gradual,” the Morgan Stanley analysts said.

China’s real estate market slump has cut into a significant source of revenue for local governments, many of which struggled financially even before needing to spend on Covid-19 measures. Meanwhile, lackluster consumption and slow growth overall have multiplied calls for more fiscal stimulus.

The four policies announced by the Ministry of Finance are focused more on tackling structural issues, Chinese economic think tank CF40 said in a report Saturday.

“They are not specifically aimed at addressing macroeconomic issues such as insufficient aggregate demand or declining price levels through Keynesian-style fiscal expansion,” the report said, in reference to expectations of greater government intervention.

CF40 estimates China does not need additional fiscal funding to achieve the full-year growth target of around 5%, as long as the spending that it has already announced happens by the end of the year.

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Local governments drag on domestic demand

Finance Minister Lan on Saturday did say the central government would allow local governments to use 400 billion yuan ($56.54 billion) in bonds to support spending on payroll and basic services.

He added that a large plan to address local governments’ hidden debt would be announced in the near future, without specifying when. Lan claimed that hidden debt levels at the end of 2023 were half what they were in 2018.

Historically, local governments were responsible for more than 85% of expenditure but only received about 60% of tax revenue, Rhodium Group said in 2021.

Constrained local government finances have “contributed to the downward pressure on prices,” the International Monetary Fund said in an Aug. 30 report on China.

The core consumer price index, which strips out more volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.1% in September, compared to a year ago. That’s the slowest since February 2021, according to the Wind Information database.

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To Morgan Stanley, resolving local government debt problems is a “critical step” toward halting the declining trend of prices — almost just as important as stimulus directed at boosting demand.

Waiting for another meeting

After a flurry of policy announcements in the last few weeks, investors are looking ahead to a meeting of China’s parliament, expected at end of the month. China’s legal process requires it to approval national budget changes. The meeting last year, which ended on Oct. 24, oversaw a rare increase in the fiscal deficit to 3.8%, from 3%, according to state media.

Analysts are divided over the specific amount of fiscal support that is needed, if any.

“Whether it’s 2 trillion [yuan] or 10 trillion, for us, it actually doesn’t make so much of a difference,” Vikas Pershad, fund manager at M&G Investments, said Monday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.” “Our bet on China is a multi-year bet. The Chinese equities are too low in valuation.”

He emphasized the policy direction is “on the right path,” regardless of the stimulus size.

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Pershad has talked about buying opportunities in Chinese stocks since January but he said Monday that the latest flurry of activity from the region hasn’t made him any more active in the sector.

China’s policymakers have generally remained conservative. Beijing did not hand out cash to consumers after the pandemic, unlike Hong Kong or the U.S.

Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China economics at Capital Economics, said at least 2.5 trillion yuan of additional funding is needed to keep growth around 5% this year and next.

“Anything less than that, and I think the risk really is the economy just continues to slow next year given all the structural headwinds that it faces,” he said Monday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.”

Evans-Pritchard insisted that fiscal policy is more critical for addressing the latest economic slump since China’s other support tools have previously included real estate and credit, which are not as effective this time.

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“It’s hard to put a specific number on it because obviously there’s a lot of talk of recapitalizing the banks, dealing with the existing debt problems among the local governments,” he said. “If a lot of the additional borrowing goes into those areas it actually does not stimulate current demand that significantly.”

— CNBC’s Sonia Heng contributed to this report.

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FTSE 100 LIVE: Stocks muted as Trump delays strikes on Iran power plants

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FTSE 100 LIVE: Stocks muted as Trump delays strikes on Iran power plants

The FTSE 100 (^FTSE) was hovering around the flatline on Friday, while European stocks headed lower, as traders shrugged off Donald Trump’s latest pause on striking Iran’s energy infrastructure.

On Thursday night, the US president extended the deadline for Iran to open the strait of Hormuz by 10 days, meaning the new date would be 6 April. He claimed that talks were “going very well”. However, Iran denied it was “begging to make a deal”, despite Trump’s earlier claims.

It comes after Wall Street posted its biggest daily loss since the Iran war began on Thursday.

The Wall Street Journal also reported on Thursday that the US was considering sending as many as 10,000 additional troops to the Middle East.

Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG, said Trump has extended the uncertainty gripping markets.

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“While the rhetoric around de-escalation and dialogue is certainly preferable to outright conflict, the market appears to be growing increasingly numb to President Trump’s verbal reassurances. By extending the deadline, it effectively kicks the can down the road, pushing back any concrete resolution regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This, in turn, simply extends the uncertainty weighing on markets and the broader global economy.”

Elsewhere, UK retail sales dipped by 0.4% in February, following a rise of 2.0% in January, the Office for National Statistics revealed. In the December to February quarter, sales volumes were up 0.7% compared with the previous three months.

  • London’s benchmark index (^FTSE) was hovering around the flatline in early trade

  • Germany’s DAX (^GDAXI) dipped 0.5% and the CAC (^FCHI) in Paris headed 0.2% into the red

  • The pan-European STOXX 600 (^STOXX) was down 0.3%

  • Wall Street is set for a muted start as S&P 500 futures (ES=F), Dow futures (YM=F) and Nasdaq futures (NQ=F) were all lacklustre.

  • The pound was 0.1% down against the US dollar (GBPUSD=X) at 1.3311

Follow along for live updates throughout the day:

LIVE 4 updates

  • Consumer confidence in Britain slips in March

    GfK revealed on Friday that the UK confidence index fell two points to -21 in March – the weakest level since Donald Trump announced sweeping import tariffs in April last year. At the time, the index sank to -23.

    Neil Bellamy, the firm’s consumer insights director, said the survey showed people are concerned about the prospects for inflation and the economy.

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    The group said the sharp rise in energy prices caused by the effective closure of the strait of Hormuz and attacks on infrastructure in the region “has led to fears of higher inflation and weaker growth across oil-importing countries”.

    A majority of respondents said the economy had improved modestly over the last year, but was about to decline significantly. They said they were likely to save more and spend less on big ticket items over the next 12 months as a result.

  • UK retail sales dip amid wet weather and weaker supermarket trading

    UK retail sales decreased in February as supermarket sales slipped and demand for household goods was impacted by wet weather, according to official figures.

    The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the total volume of retail sales, which measures the quantity bought, fell by 0.4% last month.

    It compared with a 2% rise in January, which was revised up from a previous estimate of 1.8%.

    The monthly decline in February was nevertheless shallower than expected, with analysts having predicted a drop of 0.7% for the month.

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    A fall in supermarket sales partly contributed to the fresh monthly decline, falling by 0.6%.

    All food stores, which includes convenience stores and specialist retailers, reported a 0.7% decline in sales volumes, marking the weakest level since August last year.

    Elsewhere, the data showed that household goods stores saw weaker demand, dropping by 2.6%, with retailers partly blaming “wet weather” for reduced demand.

    Met Office data indicated that the UK, had above average rainfall in February 2026, more so than in either January this year or the previous February.

    Non-store retailers also reported a slight dip over the month, with retailers suggesting that consumers brought forward spending to January to make the most of post-Christmas discounts.

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    Matt Dalton, consumer sector leader at Forvis Mazars, said:

  • Asia and US overnight

    Stocks in Asia were mixed overnight, stuck in a wait and see mode, with the Nikkei (^N225) fell 0.4% on the day in Japan, while the Hang Seng (^HSI) rose 0.4% in Hong Kong.

    The Shanghai Composite (000001.SS) was 0.6% up by the end of the session and in South Korea, the Kospi (^KS11) lost 0.4% on the day. Part of the Kospi’s weakness was also due to the ongoing sell-off in South Korean chipmaker stocks from Google’s memory chip announcement.

    Across the pond, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) slipped 1.7%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (^IXIC) was 2.4% down, both seeing their biggest declines since the start of the war and fell back to their lowest levels since September. The Dow Jones (^DJI) ended 1% lower, while the VIX index rose 2.11 points to 27.44pts, its highest since 6 March.

    Part of the Wall Street selloff was also driven by the ongoing rout from Tuesday’s announcement that Google had found a new algorithm that could reduce the memory chip amount needed in AI models.

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  • Coming up

    Good morning, and welcome back to our markets live blog. As usual we will be taking a deep dive into what’s moving markets and what’s happening across the global economy.

    To the day ahead we’ll get the US March Kansas City Fed services activity, UK February retail sales. Central bank events include the ECB consumer expectations survey, and the Fed’s Daly and Paulson will speak.

    Here’s a snapshot of what’s on the agenda today:

    • 7am: UK retail sales for February

    • 9am: ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations survey

    • 2pm: University of Michigan consumer confidence report

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NDSU College of Business launches Center for Banking and Finance

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NDSU College of Business launches Center for Banking and Finance

FARGO, N.D. – North Dakota State University’s College of Business has launched the Center for Banking and Finance, a new academic and industry‑engaged hub designed to prepare students for careers in banking and finance while supporting the evolving workforce needs of the region’s financial industry, a release states.

Announced during a press conference at NDSU’s Louise Auditorium at Barry Hall, the center brings together students, faculty and industry partners to expand experiential learning opportunities, strengthen connections to employers, and address emerging trends shaping the financial services industry. The center is housed within NDSU’s College of Business and builds on growing student interest in finance‑related programs.

“The Center for Banking and Finance reflects NDSU’s responsibility as a student‑focused, land‑grant, research university to respond to workforce and economic needs across our state and region,” said Interim President Rick Berg. “By connecting education, industry, and community, this center helps ensure our graduates are prepared to contribute on day one and throughout their careers.”

The center will support undergraduate and graduate students through hands‑on learning experiences, exposure to financial tools and technologies, and direct engagement with financial institutions, regulators and business leaders. It will also serve professionals already working in banking and finance through workshops, training and research‑informed programming aligned with business needs, according to the release.

“The Center for Banking and Finance is about momentum — students who are eager to learn, faculty who are pushing applied scholarship forward, and industry partners who want to shape the future workforce,” said Kathryn Birkeland, Ronald and Kaye Olson dean of the NDSU College of Business. “When education and industry move together, everyone benefits.”

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The launch of the Center for Banking and Finance coincides with a series of regional events focused on finance, fintech and economic outlook, including programming with the Bank of North Dakota, the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis and regional business leaders. Together, these events underscore the Fargo‑Moorhead area’s role as a hub for financial dialogue, talent development and economic collaboration.

The center’s foundational banking partners include Dacotah Bank, Gate City Bank, Bell Bank and Western State Bank, who attended the launch and are helping shape early student experiences and industry-informed programming.

The center is led by Mark Jensen, a career banker and longtime adjunct instructor who joined NDSU full-time in 2026 as director of the Center for Banking and Finance.

“The Center for Banking and Finance is designed as a bridge,” Jensen said. “It brings industry into the learning experience in meaningful ways, and it gives students clearer pathways into a wide range of banking and finance careers.”

For students, the center represents a more direct bridge between academic study and professional opportunity.

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“As a finance student, experiences outside the classroom make a real difference,” said Tavian Nelson, a senior at NDSU majoring in finance. “Going into college, I knew I wanted to be involved in the finance program but was unsure of what that would look like once I graduated. The school has truly shaped my desired career outcomes with many hands-on experiences, professional leaders, and connections throughout my time here. This center will truly strengthen these experiences for students.”

Initially, the center will focus on experiential learning opportunities, business partnerships and workforce‑aligned programming, with plans to expand offerings as partnerships and resources grow. The center is supported through external funding and business engagement.

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Iran war could trigger financial systemic stress, ECB vice president warns

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Iran war could trigger financial systemic stress, ECB vice president warns

FRANKFURT, March 26 (Reuters) – Euro zone banks have limited direct exposure to the war in the Middle East, but the conflict ‌could still generate systemic stress given interconnected vulnerabilities, European Central ‌Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos said on Thursday.

Financial markets have come under stress ​in recent weeks from the impact of the U.S. and Israeli war on Iran, but the selloff outside the Middle East has been limited, even as some assets remain overvalued.

“Spillovers to the euro area financial sector have ‌so far remained contained,” ⁠de Guindos said in a speech. “Direct bank exposures to the region are limited, and the banking system is well ⁠positioned with strong profitability and robust capital and liquidity buffers.”

De Guindos argued that even market infrastructure operators, like central counterparties whose services include energy markets, ​have managed ​margin requirements effectively, despite the volatility.

Still, ​there was a broader risk, ‌given interconnections in the financial system, said de Guindos, whose roles at the ECB include monitoring financial stability.

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“Amid already elevated global uncertainty, this conflict could trigger the unravelling of interconnected vulnerabilities and cause systemic stress,” he said.

The conflict threatens to derail market sentiment at a time when ‌asset valuations are high, potentially leading to ​a sharp repricing of risk for leveraged ​borrowers and sovereigns while amplifying ​stress in the non-bank financial sector, he said.

On the ‌ECB’s core mandate of ensuring low ​inflation, de Guindos ​repeated the bank’s warning that inflation could rise and growth slow on the conflict but argued more time was needed to understand ​the full impact.

“We are ‌unwavering in our commitment to ensuring that inflation stabilises at ​our 2% target in the medium term,” he said.

(Reporting by ​Balazs Koranyi; Editing by Toby Chopra)

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