Finance
China's Ministry of Finance is taking aim at local debt problems before tackling broader economic challenges
The 597-meter high Goldin Finance 117 Tower in Tianjin, China, started construction in September 2008, but still stands unfinished in this picture, taken Aug. 28, 2024.
Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images
BEIJING — China’s Ministry of Finance press briefing over the weekend underscored how it is focused on tackling local government debt problems, instead of the stimulus markets have been waiting for.
In his opening remarks on Saturday, Minister of Finance Lan Fo’an laid out four measures, starting with increasing support for local governments in resolving debt risks. It was only after he outlined those four points that Lan teased that the country was looking to increase debt and the deficit.
“The press conference is consistent with our view that addressing local government financing struggles is a priority,” Robin Xing, chief China economist at Morgan Stanley, and his team said in a report Sunday. They also expect that the central government will play a larger role in debt restructuring and housing market stabilization.
“However, we believe upsizing consumption support and social welfare spending will likely remain gradual,” the Morgan Stanley analysts said.
China’s real estate market slump has cut into a significant source of revenue for local governments, many of which struggled financially even before needing to spend on Covid-19 measures. Meanwhile, lackluster consumption and slow growth overall have multiplied calls for more fiscal stimulus.
The four policies announced by the Ministry of Finance are focused more on tackling structural issues, Chinese economic think tank CF40 said in a report Saturday.
“They are not specifically aimed at addressing macroeconomic issues such as insufficient aggregate demand or declining price levels through Keynesian-style fiscal expansion,” the report said, in reference to expectations of greater government intervention.
CF40 estimates China does not need additional fiscal funding to achieve the full-year growth target of around 5%, as long as the spending that it has already announced happens by the end of the year.
Local governments drag on domestic demand
Finance Minister Lan on Saturday did say the central government would allow local governments to use 400 billion yuan ($56.54 billion) in bonds to support spending on payroll and basic services.
He added that a large plan to address local governments’ hidden debt would be announced in the near future, without specifying when. Lan claimed that hidden debt levels at the end of 2023 were half what they were in 2018.
Historically, local governments were responsible for more than 85% of expenditure but only received about 60% of tax revenue, Rhodium Group said in 2021.
Constrained local government finances have “contributed to the downward pressure on prices,” the International Monetary Fund said in an Aug. 30 report on China.
The core consumer price index, which strips out more volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.1% in September, compared to a year ago. That’s the slowest since February 2021, according to the Wind Information database.
To Morgan Stanley, resolving local government debt problems is a “critical step” toward halting the declining trend of prices — almost just as important as stimulus directed at boosting demand.
Waiting for another meeting
After a flurry of policy announcements in the last few weeks, investors are looking ahead to a meeting of China’s parliament, expected at end of the month. China’s legal process requires it to approval national budget changes. The meeting last year, which ended on Oct. 24, oversaw a rare increase in the fiscal deficit to 3.8%, from 3%, according to state media.
Analysts are divided over the specific amount of fiscal support that is needed, if any.
“Whether it’s 2 trillion [yuan] or 10 trillion, for us, it actually doesn’t make so much of a difference,” Vikas Pershad, fund manager at M&G Investments, said Monday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.” “Our bet on China is a multi-year bet. The Chinese equities are too low in valuation.”
He emphasized the policy direction is “on the right path,” regardless of the stimulus size.
Pershad has talked about buying opportunities in Chinese stocks since January but he said Monday that the latest flurry of activity from the region hasn’t made him any more active in the sector.
China’s policymakers have generally remained conservative. Beijing did not hand out cash to consumers after the pandemic, unlike Hong Kong or the U.S.
Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China economics at Capital Economics, said at least 2.5 trillion yuan of additional funding is needed to keep growth around 5% this year and next.
“Anything less than that, and I think the risk really is the economy just continues to slow next year given all the structural headwinds that it faces,” he said Monday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.”
Evans-Pritchard insisted that fiscal policy is more critical for addressing the latest economic slump since China’s other support tools have previously included real estate and credit, which are not as effective this time.
“It’s hard to put a specific number on it because obviously there’s a lot of talk of recapitalizing the banks, dealing with the existing debt problems among the local governments,” he said. “If a lot of the additional borrowing goes into those areas it actually does not stimulate current demand that significantly.”
— CNBC’s Sonia Heng contributed to this report.
Finance
Military Troops and Retirees: Here’s the First Financial Step to Take in 2026
Editor’s note: This is the fourth installment of New Year, New You, a weeklong look at your financial health headed into 2026.
You get your W-2 in January and realize you either owe thousands in taxes or get a massive refund. Both mean your withholding was wrong all year.
Most service members set their tax withholding once during in-processing and never look at it again. Life changes. You get married, have kids, buy a house or pick up a second job. Your tax situation changes, but your withholding stays the same.
Adjusting your withholding takes five minutes and can save you from owing the IRS or giving the government an interest-free loan all year.
Use the IRS Tax Withholding Estimator First
Before changing anything, run your numbers through the IRS Tax Withholding Estimator at www.irs.gov/individuals/tax-withholding-estimator. The calculator asks about your filing status, income, current withholding, deductions and credits. It tells you whether you need to adjust.
The calculator considers multiple jobs, spouse income and other factors that affect your tax bill. Running it takes about 10 minutes and prevents you from withholding too much or too little.
Read More: The Cost of Skipping Sick Call: How Active-Duty Service Members Can Protect Future VA Claims
Changing Withholding in myPay (Most Services)
Army, Navy, Air Force, Space Force and Marine Corps members use myPay at mypay.dfas.mil. Log in and click Federal Withholding. Click the yellow pencil icon to edit.
The page lets you enter information about multiple jobs, change dependents, add additional income, make deductions or withhold extra tax. You can see when the changes take effect on the blue bar at the top of the page.
Changes typically show up on your next pay statement. If you make changes early in the month, they might appear on your mid-month paycheck. If you make them later, expect them on the end-of-month check.
State tax withholding works differently. DFAS can only withhold for states with signed agreements. Changes require submitting DD Form 2866 through myPay or by mail. Not all states allow DFAS to withhold state tax.
Changing Withholding in Direct Access (Coast Guard)
Coast Guard members use Direct Access at hcm.direct-access.uscg.mil. The system processes changes the same way as myPay. Log in, navigate to tax withholding and update your information.
Coast Guard members can also submit written requests using IRS Form W-4. Mail completed forms to the Pay and Personnel Center in Topeka, Kansas, or submit them through your Personnel and Administration office.
Read More: Here’s Why January Is the Best Time to File Your VA Disability Claim
When to Adjust Withholding
Check your withholding when major life events happen. Marriage or divorce changes your filing status. Having kids adds dependents. Buying a house affects deductions. A spouse starting or stopping work changes household income.
Military-specific events matter, too. Deploying to a combat zone makes some pay tax-free. PCS moves change state tax situations. Separation from service means losing military income but potentially gaining civilian income.
Check at the start of each year, even if your circumstances seemingly stayed the same. Tax laws change. Brackets adjust for inflation. Your situation might be different even if it seems the same.
The Balance
Withholding too little means owing taxes in April plus potential penalties. Withholding too much means getting a refund but losing access to that money all year.
Some people like big refunds and treat it like forced savings. Others would rather have the money in each paycheck to pay bills, invest or set aside in normal savings.
Neither approach is wrong. What matters is that your withholding matches your tax situation and your preference for how you receive your money.
Run the estimator. Adjust your withholding. Check it annually. This simple process prevents tax surprises.
Previously In This series:
Part 1: 2026 Guide to Pay and Allowances for Military Service Members, Veterans and Retirees
Part 2: Understanding All the Deductions on Your 2026 Military Leave and Earnings Statements
Part 3: Should You Let the Military Set Aside Allotments from Your Pay?
Part 4: This Is the Best Thing to Do With Your 2026 Military Pay Raise
Stay on Top of Your Veteran Benefits
Military benefits are always changing. Keep up with everything from pay to health care by subscribing to Military.com, and get access to up-to-date pay charts and more with all latest benefits delivered straight to your inbox.
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Finance
The case against saving when building a business
Finance
This Is the Best Thing to Do With Your 2026 Military Pay Raise
Editor’s note: This is the fourth installment of New Year, New You, a weeklong look at your financial health headed into 2026.
The military’s regularly occurring pay raises provide an opportunity that many civilians only dream of. Not only do the annual percentage increases troops receive each January provide frequent chances to rebalance financial priorities — savings vs. current standard of living — so do time-in-service increases for every two years of military service, not to mention promotions.
Two experts in military pay and personal finance — a retired admiral and a retired general, each at the head of their respective military mutual aid associations — advised taking a similarly predictable approach to managing each new raise:
Cut it in half.
In one variation of the strategy, a service member simply adds to their savings: whatever it is they prioritize. In the other, consistent increases in retirement contributions soon add up to a desirable threshold.
Rainy Day Fund
The active military’s 3.8% pay raise in 2026 came in a percentage point higher than retirees and disabled veterans received, meaning troops “should be able to afford the market basket of goods that the average American is afforded,” said Michael Meese, a retired Army brigadier general and president of Armed Forces Mutual.
While the veterans’ lower rate relies exclusively on the rate of inflation, Congress has the option to offer more; and in doing so is making up for recent years when the pay raise didn’t keep up with unusually high inflation, Meese said.
“So this is helping us catch up a little bit.”
He also speculated that the government shutdown “upset a lot of people” and that widespread support of the 3.8% raise across party lines and in both houses of Congress showed “that it has confidence in the military and wants to take care of the military and restore government credibility with service men and women,” Meese said.
His suggestion for managing pay raises:
“If you’ve been living already without the pay raise and now you see this pay raise, if you can,” Meese advised, “I always said … you should save half and spend half,” Meese said. “That way, you don’t instantly increase your spending habits just because you see more money at the end of the month.”
A service member who makes only $1,000 every two weeks, for example, gets another $38 every two weeks starting this month. Put $19 into savings, and you can put the other $19 toward “beer and pizza or whatever you’re going to do,” Meese said.
“That way you’re putting money away for a rainy day,” he said — to help prepare for a vacation, for example, “so you’re not putting those on a credit card.” If you set aside only $25 more per pay period, “at the end of the year, you’ve got an extra $300 in there, and that may be great for Christmas vacation or Christmas presents or something like that.”
Retirement Strategy
Brian Luther, retired rear admiral and the president and chief executive officer of Navy Mutual, recognizes that “personal finance is personal” — in other words, “every situation is different.” Nevertheless, he insists that “everyone should have a plan” that includes:
- What your cash flow is
- Where your money is going
- Where you need to go in the future
But even if you don’t know a lot of those details, Luther said, the most important thing:
Luther also advised an approach based on cutting the 3.8% pay raise in half, keeping half for expenses and putting the other half into the Thrift Savings Plan. Then “that pay will work for you until you need it in retirement,” Luther said. With every subsequent increase, put half into the TSP until you’re setting aside a full 15% of your pay.
For a relatively young service member, “Once you hit 15%, and [with] the 5% match from the government, that’s enough for your future,” Luther said.
Previously in this series:
Part 1: 2026 Guide to Pay and Allowances for Military Service Members, Veterans and Retirees
Part 2: Understanding All the Deductions on Your 2026 Military Leave and Earnings Statements
Part 3: Should You Let the Military Set Aside Allotments from Your Pay?
Get the Latest Financial Tips
Whether you’re trying to balance your budget, build up your credit, select a good life insurance program or are gearing up for a home purchase, Military.com has you covered. Subscribe to Military.com and get the latest military benefit updates and tips delivered straight to your inbox.
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