Finance
China's Ministry of Finance is taking aim at local debt problems before tackling broader economic challenges
The 597-meter high Goldin Finance 117 Tower in Tianjin, China, started construction in September 2008, but still stands unfinished in this picture, taken Aug. 28, 2024.
Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images
BEIJING — China’s Ministry of Finance press briefing over the weekend underscored how it is focused on tackling local government debt problems, instead of the stimulus markets have been waiting for.
In his opening remarks on Saturday, Minister of Finance Lan Fo’an laid out four measures, starting with increasing support for local governments in resolving debt risks. It was only after he outlined those four points that Lan teased that the country was looking to increase debt and the deficit.
“The press conference is consistent with our view that addressing local government financing struggles is a priority,” Robin Xing, chief China economist at Morgan Stanley, and his team said in a report Sunday. They also expect that the central government will play a larger role in debt restructuring and housing market stabilization.
“However, we believe upsizing consumption support and social welfare spending will likely remain gradual,” the Morgan Stanley analysts said.
China’s real estate market slump has cut into a significant source of revenue for local governments, many of which struggled financially even before needing to spend on Covid-19 measures. Meanwhile, lackluster consumption and slow growth overall have multiplied calls for more fiscal stimulus.
The four policies announced by the Ministry of Finance are focused more on tackling structural issues, Chinese economic think tank CF40 said in a report Saturday.
“They are not specifically aimed at addressing macroeconomic issues such as insufficient aggregate demand or declining price levels through Keynesian-style fiscal expansion,” the report said, in reference to expectations of greater government intervention.
CF40 estimates China does not need additional fiscal funding to achieve the full-year growth target of around 5%, as long as the spending that it has already announced happens by the end of the year.
Local governments drag on domestic demand
Finance Minister Lan on Saturday did say the central government would allow local governments to use 400 billion yuan ($56.54 billion) in bonds to support spending on payroll and basic services.
He added that a large plan to address local governments’ hidden debt would be announced in the near future, without specifying when. Lan claimed that hidden debt levels at the end of 2023 were half what they were in 2018.
Historically, local governments were responsible for more than 85% of expenditure but only received about 60% of tax revenue, Rhodium Group said in 2021.
Constrained local government finances have “contributed to the downward pressure on prices,” the International Monetary Fund said in an Aug. 30 report on China.
The core consumer price index, which strips out more volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.1% in September, compared to a year ago. That’s the slowest since February 2021, according to the Wind Information database.
To Morgan Stanley, resolving local government debt problems is a “critical step” toward halting the declining trend of prices — almost just as important as stimulus directed at boosting demand.
Waiting for another meeting
After a flurry of policy announcements in the last few weeks, investors are looking ahead to a meeting of China’s parliament, expected at end of the month. China’s legal process requires it to approval national budget changes. The meeting last year, which ended on Oct. 24, oversaw a rare increase in the fiscal deficit to 3.8%, from 3%, according to state media.
Analysts are divided over the specific amount of fiscal support that is needed, if any.
“Whether it’s 2 trillion [yuan] or 10 trillion, for us, it actually doesn’t make so much of a difference,” Vikas Pershad, fund manager at M&G Investments, said Monday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.” “Our bet on China is a multi-year bet. The Chinese equities are too low in valuation.”
He emphasized the policy direction is “on the right path,” regardless of the stimulus size.
Pershad has talked about buying opportunities in Chinese stocks since January but he said Monday that the latest flurry of activity from the region hasn’t made him any more active in the sector.
China’s policymakers have generally remained conservative. Beijing did not hand out cash to consumers after the pandemic, unlike Hong Kong or the U.S.
Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China economics at Capital Economics, said at least 2.5 trillion yuan of additional funding is needed to keep growth around 5% this year and next.
“Anything less than that, and I think the risk really is the economy just continues to slow next year given all the structural headwinds that it faces,” he said Monday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.”
Evans-Pritchard insisted that fiscal policy is more critical for addressing the latest economic slump since China’s other support tools have previously included real estate and credit, which are not as effective this time.
“It’s hard to put a specific number on it because obviously there’s a lot of talk of recapitalizing the banks, dealing with the existing debt problems among the local governments,” he said. “If a lot of the additional borrowing goes into those areas it actually does not stimulate current demand that significantly.”
— CNBC’s Sonia Heng contributed to this report.
Finance
Holyoke City Council sends finance overhaul plan to committee for review
HOLYOKE — The City Council has advanced plans to create a finance and administration department, voting to send proposed changes to a subcommittee for further review.
The move follows guidance from the state Division of Local Services aimed at strengthening the city’s internal cash controls, defining clear lines of accountability, and making sure staff have the appropriate education and skill level for their financial roles.
On Tuesday, Councilor Meg Magrath-Smith, who filed the order, said the council needed to change some wording about qualifications based on advice from the human resources department before sending it to the ordinance committee for review.
The committee will discuss and vote on the matter before it can head back to the full City Council for a vote. It meets next Tuesday. The next council meeting is scheduled for Jan. 20.
On Monday, Mayor Joshua Garcia said in his inaugural address that he plans to continue advancing his Municipal Finance Modernization Act.
Last spring, Garcia introduced two budget plans: one showing the current $180 million cost of running the city, and another projecting savings if Holyoke adopted the finance act.
Key proposed changes include realigning departments to meet modern needs, renaming positions and reassigning duties, fixing problems found in decades of audits, and using technology to improve workflow and service.
Garcia said the plan aims to also make government more efficient and accountable by boosting oversight of the mayor and finance departments, requiring audits of all city functions, enforcing penalties for policy violations, and adding fraud protections with stronger reporting.
Other steps included changing the city treasurer from an elected to an appointed position, a measure approved in a special election last January.
Additionally, the city would adopt a financial management policies manual, create a consolidated Finance Department and hire a chief administrative and financial officer to handle forecasting, capital planning and informed decision-making.
Garcia said that the state has suggested creating the CAFO position for almost 20 years and called on the City Council to pass the reform before the end of this fiscal year, so that it can be in place by July 1.
In a previous interview, City Council President Tessa Murphy-Romboletti said nine votes were needed to adopt the financial reform.
She also said past problems stemmed from a lack of proper systems and checks, an issue the city has dealt with since the 1970s.
The mayor would choose this officer, and the City Council will approve the appointment, she said.
In October, the City Council narrowly rejected the finance act in an 8-5 vote.
Supporters ― Michael Sullivan, Israel Rivera, Jenny Rivera, Murphy-Romboletti, Anderson Burgos, former Councilor Kocayne Givner, Patti Devine and Magrath-Smith ― said the city needs modernization and greater transparency.
Opponents ― Howard Greaney Jr., Linda Vacon, former Councilors David Bartley, Kevin Jourdain and Carmen Ocasio — said a qualified treasurer should be appointed first.
Vacon said then the treasurer’s office was “a mess,” and that the city should “fix” one department before “mixing it with another.”
The City Council also clashed over fixes, as the state stopped sending millions in monthly aid because the city hadn’t finished basic financial paperwork for three years.
The main problem came from delays in financial reports from the treasurer’s office.
Holyoke had a history of late filings. For six of the past eight years, the city delayed its required annual financial report, and five times in the past, the state withheld aid.
Council disputes over job descriptions, salaries and reforms also stalled progress.
In November, millions in state aid began flowing back to Holyoke after the city made some progress in closing out its books.
The state had withheld nearly $29 million for four months but even with aid restored, Holyoke still faces big financial problems, the Division of Local Services said.
Finance
Military Troops and Retirees: Here’s the First Financial Step to Take in 2026
Editor’s note: This is the fourth installment of New Year, New You, a weeklong look at your financial health headed into 2026.
You get your W-2 in January and realize you either owe thousands in taxes or get a massive refund. Both mean your withholding was wrong all year.
Most service members set their tax withholding once during in-processing and never look at it again. Life changes. You get married, have kids, buy a house or pick up a second job. Your tax situation changes, but your withholding stays the same.
Adjusting your withholding takes five minutes and can save you from owing the IRS or giving the government an interest-free loan all year.
Use the IRS Tax Withholding Estimator First
Before changing anything, run your numbers through the IRS Tax Withholding Estimator at www.irs.gov/individuals/tax-withholding-estimator. The calculator asks about your filing status, income, current withholding, deductions and credits. It tells you whether you need to adjust.
The calculator considers multiple jobs, spouse income and other factors that affect your tax bill. Running it takes about 10 minutes and prevents you from withholding too much or too little.
Read More: The Cost of Skipping Sick Call: How Active-Duty Service Members Can Protect Future VA Claims
Changing Withholding in myPay (Most Services)
Army, Navy, Air Force, Space Force and Marine Corps members use myPay at mypay.dfas.mil. Log in and click Federal Withholding. Click the yellow pencil icon to edit.
The page lets you enter information about multiple jobs, change dependents, add additional income, make deductions or withhold extra tax. You can see when the changes take effect on the blue bar at the top of the page.
Changes typically show up on your next pay statement. If you make changes early in the month, they might appear on your mid-month paycheck. If you make them later, expect them on the end-of-month check.
State tax withholding works differently. DFAS can only withhold for states with signed agreements. Changes require submitting DD Form 2866 through myPay or by mail. Not all states allow DFAS to withhold state tax.
Changing Withholding in Direct Access (Coast Guard)
Coast Guard members use Direct Access at hcm.direct-access.uscg.mil. The system processes changes the same way as myPay. Log in, navigate to tax withholding and update your information.
Coast Guard members can also submit written requests using IRS Form W-4. Mail completed forms to the Pay and Personnel Center in Topeka, Kansas, or submit them through your Personnel and Administration office.
Read More: Here’s Why January Is the Best Time to File Your VA Disability Claim
When to Adjust Withholding
Check your withholding when major life events happen. Marriage or divorce changes your filing status. Having kids adds dependents. Buying a house affects deductions. A spouse starting or stopping work changes household income.
Military-specific events matter, too. Deploying to a combat zone makes some pay tax-free. PCS moves change state tax situations. Separation from service means losing military income but potentially gaining civilian income.
Check at the start of each year, even if your circumstances seemingly stayed the same. Tax laws change. Brackets adjust for inflation. Your situation might be different even if it seems the same.
The Balance
Withholding too little means owing taxes in April plus potential penalties. Withholding too much means getting a refund but losing access to that money all year.
Some people like big refunds and treat it like forced savings. Others would rather have the money in each paycheck to pay bills, invest or set aside in normal savings.
Neither approach is wrong. What matters is that your withholding matches your tax situation and your preference for how you receive your money.
Run the estimator. Adjust your withholding. Check it annually. This simple process prevents tax surprises.
Previously In This series:
Part 1: 2026 Guide to Pay and Allowances for Military Service Members, Veterans and Retirees
Part 2: Understanding All the Deductions on Your 2026 Military Leave and Earnings Statements
Part 3: Should You Let the Military Set Aside Allotments from Your Pay?
Part 4: This Is the Best Thing to Do With Your 2026 Military Pay Raise
Stay on Top of Your Veteran Benefits
Military benefits are always changing. Keep up with everything from pay to health care by subscribing to Military.com, and get access to up-to-date pay charts and more with all latest benefits delivered straight to your inbox.
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