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Netflix shares drop after Paramount launches hostile takeover bid

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Netflix shares drop after Paramount launches hostile takeover bid

Netflix shares dipped Monday after Paramount announced a hostile takeover bid, fueling worries on Wall Street that the streaming giant may not be able to pull off its audacious acquisition.

Netflix stock closed down nearly 3.5% to $96.79 a share after Paramount moved to take its case directly to Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders, offering $30 a share in a deal valued at $78 billion for the whole company. Last week, Netflix said it reached an agreement with WBD to buy its film and TV studios, Burbank lot, HBO and HBO Max for $27.75 a share, a $72-billion offer. Netflix would also take on more than $10 billion in Warner Bros. debt, for a deal value of $82.7 billion.

On Monday, analyst Jeffrey Wlodarczak, CEO of Pivotal Research Group, downgraded his rating on Netflix stock from buy to hold, citing concerns that Paramount’s bid could increase the price Netflix could pay for the WBD assets. Regulatory issues may also change the terms of the deal, such as Netflix giving up HBO to a rival, Wlodarczak said. “The question is, what modifications might they have to make?” he said.

Wlodarczak also questioned Netflix’s engagement levels with customers, which is key to retaining subscribers on the platform. He said that “this very expensive deal” highlights Netflix’s concern that short-form entertainment on platforms like TikTok and YouTube are attracting younger consumers.

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YouTube — once known as a place for amateur user-generated videos — has become an entertainment powerhouse, encapsulating the largest percentage of streaming on U.S. TVs, according to Nielsen. In October, YouTube represented 12.9% of U.S. TV viewing time, compared to Netflix’s 8%.

Netflix said its customer engagement “remains healthy,” noting in a shareholder letter in October that it grew its engagement in the U.S. and U.K. by 15% and 22%, from the fourth quarter of 2022 to the third quarter of 2025, citing data from Nielsen and Barb, which tracks viewership.

Equity research publisher MoffettNathanson analysts said questions have been building about Netflix’s engagement growth, adding that even though Netflix’s share of total TV time started to grow in the second half of the year, “YouTube’s share gains have overshadowed most of the other streaming platforms.”

“There’s issues with Netflix engagement, sort of flatlining,” Wlodarczak said. “You get a lot better content, it should help with your engagement. … Is this a signal they’re really starting to get worried about engagement, and they’re out doing this deal because younger people are just spending increasing amounts of time not sitting there watching hour-long shows?”

Netflix declined to comment on Wlodarczak’s report.

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On Friday in a call with investors, Netflix executives emphasized that their business is healthy and growing. They pointed out how sci-fi hit show “Stranger Things” was very popular with younger audiences, as well as series like the drama “Outer Banks” and movies including “KPop Demon Hunters.”

“We had record engagement previous quarter,” said Co-Chief Executive Ted Sarandos on the Friday call. “We’re happy with our outlook for the ongoing organic growth and engagement … Our core fundamentals are strong. This gives us a very unique opportunity to accelerate an already very successful model.”

Whether the deal will go through remains an open question, as Netflix would not make the acquisition until 12 to 18 months from now, after Warner Bros. Discovery separates its company, spinning off its cable channels into a new publicly traded company.

Wedbush Securities analysts, who have an outperform rating on the stock, said in a note on Monday that they are skeptical that the deal will pass regulatory scrutiny.

“Ultimately, we think the DOJ will reject a deal without concessions on pricing and industry standards,” the analysts wrote.

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On Monday, Netflix executives said they were confident the deal would go through. Co-Chief Executive Greg Peters pointed out that Netflix still represents a smaller share of U.S. TV viewing in the U.S. compared to YouTube, even if it were to combine with Warner Bros. Discover, citing Nielsen data.

“We think there’s a strong fundamental case here for why regulators should approve this deal,” he said at a UBS conference.

Wlodarczak said he believes there are benefits to Netflix acquiring the Warner Bros. Discovery assets. The Los Gatos, Calif., streamer would gain access to characters including Batman and Harry Potter.

It also prevents rivals like Paramount from getting bigger.

“They’re starting to get large enough to build a credible threat to Netflix,” Wlodarczak said. “So by buying this thing … it’s going to be really difficult to get as large and have as much scale as Netflix.”

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Times staff writer Meg James contributed to this report.

Movie Reviews

Miyamoto says he was surprised Mario Galaxy Movie reviews were even harsher than the first | VGC

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Miyamoto says he was surprised Mario Galaxy Movie reviews were even harsher than the first | VGC

Nintendo’s Shigeru Miyamoto says he’s surprised at the negative critical reception to the Super Mario Galaxy Movie.

As reported by Famitsu, Miyamoto conducted a group interview with Japanese media to mark the local release of The Super Mario Galaxy Movie.

During the interview, Miyamoto was asked for his views on the critical reception to the film in the West, where critics’ reviews have been mostly negative.

Miyamoto replied that while he understood some of the negative points aimed at The Super Mario Bros Movie, he thought the reception would be better for the sequel.

“It’s true: the situation is indeed very similar,” he said. “Actually, regarding the previous film, I felt that the critics’ opinions did hold some validity. “However, I thought things would be different this time around—only to find that the criticism is even harsher than it was before.

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“It really is quite baffling: here we are—having crossed over from a different field—working hard with the specific aim of helping to revitalize the film industry, yet the very people who ought to be championing that cause seem to be the ones taking a passive stance.”

As was the case with the first film, opinion is divided between critics and the public on The Super Mario Galaxy Movie. On review aggregate site Rotten Tomatoes, the film currently has a critics’ score of 43% , while its audience score is 89%.

Shigeru Miyamoto says he was surprised by Mario Galaxy Movie reviews.

While this is down from the first film’s scores (which were 59% critics and 95% public) it does still appear to imply that the film’s target audience is generally enjoying it despite critical negativity.

The negative reception is unlikely to bother Universal and Illumination too much, considering the film currently has a global box office of $752 million before even releasing in Japan, meaning a $1 billion global gross is becoming increasingly likely.

Elsewhere in the interview, Miyamoto said he hoped the film would perform well in Japan, especially because it has a unique script rather than a simple localization as in other regions.

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“The Japanese version is a bit unique,” he said. “Normally, we create an English version and then localize it for each country, but for the first film, we developed the English and Japanese scripts simultaneously. For this film, we didn’t simply localize the completed English version – instead, we rewrote it entirely in Japanese to create a special Japanese version.

“So, if this doesn’t become a hit in Japan, I feel a sense of pressure – as the person in charge of the Japanese version – to not let [Illumination CEO and film co-producer] Chris [Meledandri] down.

“However, judging by the reactions of the audience members who’ve seen it, I feel that Mario fans are really embracing it. I also believe we’ve created a film that people can enjoy even if they haven’t seen the previous one, so I’m hopeful about that as well.”