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The 8 NFL free-agent signings with the best chance to outproduce their contracts

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The 8 NFL free-agent signings with the best chance to outproduce their contracts

The first wave of NFL free agency is winding down, and there are now plenty of deals to assess.

In the team free agency rankings we released ahead of the negotiation window earlier this month, we dove into the data from the previous four years, 2021 through 2024. We logged cash spent on each free agent during that span. We also logged the value produced — using Football Reference’s Approximate Value metric — by each player while he was on his free-agent contract. By comparing these two figures, we determined how much value each free agent produced per $1 million in cash spent, or AV per million. And, in turn, we ranked teams at large by how much value they were producing per $1 million cash spent on the free agent market.

Now we can use that data to try and project the best value deals from the early returns in this 2025 free agent class. From 2021 to 2024, the league average in AV per million was .713. That is the benchmark we will use in our projections. Any player who produces more than .713 AV per million can be classified as an above-average return on investment. For reference, quarterback Russell Wilson had the highest AV per million of any free agent signed in the 2024 class. He finished with 9 AV in 11 starts for Pittsburgh. The Steelers paid Wilson just $1.21 million in cash.

What we are looking for are low-cost signings that have the chance to outperform their bargain deals.

Here are our eight best potential value deals of the first wave of free agency.

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(All contract figures courtesy of Over the Cap.)

Levi Onwuzurike, IDL, Detroit Lions

2025 cash: $4 million

Interior defensive linemen got paid in this free-agent cycle. Milton Williams signed with the New England Patriots for $26 million in average per year (APY). Osa Odighizuwa returned to the Dallas Cowboys on a contract worth $20 million in APY. Javon Kinlaw got $15 million in APY from the Washington Commanders, while Tershawn Wharton got just over $15 million in APY from the Carolina Panthers. Onwuzurike had more pressures (47) and a higher pass rush win percentage (11.9) than both Wharton and Kinlaw in 2024, according to Pro Football Focus. He returned to the Lions on a far cheaper deal.

Onwuzurike only finished the season with 1 1/2 sacks, and perhaps that lack of box score production affected his market. But the upside here feels tremendous if Onwuzurike can maintain his level of pressure. An AV per million above 2.0 seems well in reach. Only 34 free agents from the 2024 class hit that number in 2024.

Joshua Uche, edge, Philadelphia Eagles

2025 cash: $1.92 million

The Eagles were the clear winners of free agency in 2024. It is no coincidence they went on to win the Super Bowl. Philadelphia received above-average AV per million returns on several free agents, including linebacker Zack Baun (4.0), running back Saquon Barkley (1.2) and guard Mekhi Becton (1.5). Baun was in the top 10 in AV per million after transitioning to off-ball linebacker and having a breakout All-Pro season.

If the Eagles are going to hit big on a 2025 free agent value signing like they did with Baun last year, Uche is a good bet. He is cheap. He had an 11 1/2-sack season with the Patriots in 2022. He will be playing alongside one of the best defensive tackles in football in Jalen Carter. And we saw in 2024 what kind of impact Carter had on his teammates, including Williams and edge rusher Josh Sweat, both of whom left in free agency. The big question with Uche is whether he can earn playing time in a deep edge rusher room in Philly. Nolan Smith Jr., Bryce Huff and Jalyx Hunt all return. The Eagles also signed Azeez Ojulari to a one-year deal in free agency.

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Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, WR, Miami Dolphins

2025 cash: $3.2 million

One big theme in our AV-per-million player rankings: Low-cost receivers with a pathway to playing time tend to produce substantial returns on investment. The Washington Commanders had two receivers in our 2024 top 10: Olamide Zaccheaus (4.64 in AV per million) and Noah Brown (4.13). Zaccheaus made $1.29 million in cash and caught 45 passes for 506 yards and three touchdowns. Brown made $1.21 million in cash and caught 35 passes for 453 yards and one touchdown.

Westbrook-Ikhine fits the profile in this year’s class. He has good size at 6-foot-2, 211 pounds and is a legitimate weapon in the red zone. His skill set is a logical complement to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Westbrook-Ikhine had nine touchdowns in 2024, tied for eighth among receivers. Six of those came in the red zone, also tied for eighth.

Richie Grant, S, San Francisco 49ers

2025 cash: $1.5 million

Grant, a former second-round pick to the Atlanta Falcons in 2021, started 32 games over the 2022 and 2023 seasons. But he lost his starting job when coach Raheem Morris and his staff took over in 2024. He should have a chance to compete for a starting job with the 49ers, who lost Talanoa Hufanga in free agency. Grant will have to beat out 2023 third-round pick Ji’Ayir Brown and Jason Pinnock, who San Francisco signed to a one-year, $2.2 million deal in free agency.

If Grant wins the job and plays starting snaps, there is a clear avenue toward a high AV per million. The 49ers have a history of finding value on cheap safety contracts. In 2022, they paid $1.12 million in cash for veteran Tashaun Gipson Sr., who started all 17 games. Gipson’s 6.25 AV per million that season ranks second for any free agent during the 2021-24 window.


If Richie Grant becomes a starter for the 49ers, he could be a bargain for his $1.5 salary in 2025. (Brett Davis / Imagn Images)

Ifeatu Melifonwu, S, Miami Dolphins

2025 cash: $3 million

The Dolphins had to retool their safety room during this year’s free agency period. Jevon Holland signed a big deal with the New York Giants. Jordan Poyer, who turns 34 in April, is a free agent. The Dolphins, at least partially because of their tight cap situation, had to look for cheap answers at the position. They signed Ashtyn Davis to a one-year, $2.5 million deal and they signed Melifonwu to a slightly more expensive contract. Both of these deals have the potential for AV-per-million upside.

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Melifonwu, a college cornerback who transitioned to safety in Detroit, has a higher ceiling. He has battled injuries and only played more than 10 games one time in his first four NFL seasons with the Lions. But when he played a full season in 2023, Melifonwu showed a ton of promise, including as a blitzer and in his ball production.

Najee Harris, RB, Los Angeles Chargers

2025 cash: $5.25 million

Harris is positioned to be a workhorse back for the Chargers, who cut Gus Edwards and have not yet re-signed J.K. Dobbins. Harris has not missed a game in his four NFL seasons. He has carried the ball at least 255 times and rushed for at least 1,000 rushing yards in all of those seasons. He has never finished a season with less than 6 AV. He has averaged 7.75 AV per season. This could end up being more of a base-hit signing.

If Harris can rediscover some of his rookie-year form, particularly as a pass catcher, this could become a more significant return on investment. In 2021, Harris caught 74 passes on 94 targets for 467 yards. His quarterback that season was Ben Roethlisberger. Harris produced a career-high 10 AV. The Steelers have been in QB purgatory since then, even if they got some viable production out of Wilson in 2024. Justin Herbert is quite willing to hit his check down if he has the running back to do it. Just ask Austin Ekeler.

This signing is reminiscent of the Devin Singletary deal with the Houston Texans in 2023. Singletary was entering his age-26 season and coming off his rookie deal that offseason. He was moderately productive over his first four seasons. He signed a one-year deal with the Texans and made $3.125 million in cash. That year, Singletary played all 17 games and produced 2.24 AV per million. Harris is entering his age-27 season. The cash figures are slightly elevated. But in terms of percentage of the cap, Singletary was at 1.4 percent. and Harris is at 1.9 percent.

Van Jefferson, WR, Tennessee Titans

2025 cash: $1.67 million

The Titans have some decisions to make before the start of the 2025 season, including who their starting quarterback will be. They have the No. 1 pick, which they could use on a quarterback. They could very well add another receiver in the draft. But as it stands, Jefferson has a chance to be the No. 2 option for whoever is throwing the football, behind Calvin Ridley.

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This feels similar to the Zaccheaus and Brown deals, who were playing alongside No. 1 Terry McLaurin. The Commanders struck gold with quarterback Jayden Daniels. At the price, there is plenty of room for a strong return on Jefferson, who in 2021 caught 50 passes for 802 yards and six touchdowns with the Los Angeles Rams.

Cornelius Lucas, OT, Cleveland Browns

2025 cash: $3.25 million

Lucas has made a career out of being a trustworthy swing tackle. The 33-year-old has double-digit career starts on both the right and left side, but he has only started more than eight games in one season.

The Browns do not have a reliable plan for left tackle on the roster. Dawand Jones, a 2023 fourth-round pick, has landed on IR in each of his first two seasons. The team signed Teven Jenkins but he’s primarily been a guard. Jedrick Wills is a free agent. Not to mention that right tackle Jack Conklin turns 31 in August and has battled multiple serious knee injuries, most recently in 2023. If Lucas starts a bunch of games at tackle for the Browns this season, he will be high up in our AV per million rankings next March.

(Top photos of Levi Onwuzurike and Najee Harris: Jorge Lemus / NurPhoto via Getty Images and Candice Ward / Getty Images)

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Culture

I Think This Poem Is Kind of Into You

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I Think This Poem Is Kind of Into You

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A famous poet once observed that it is difficult to get the news from poems. The weather is a different story. April showers, summer sunshine and — maybe especially — the chill of winter provide an endless supply of moods and metaphors. Poets like to practice a double meteorology, looking out at the water and up at the sky for evidence of interior conditions of feeling.

The inner and outer forecasts don’t always match up. This short poem by Louise Glück starts out cold and stays that way for most of its 11 lines.

And then it bursts into flame.

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“Early December in Croton-on-Hudson” comes from Glück’s debut collection, “Firstborn,” which was published in 1968. She wrote the poems in it between the ages of 18 and 23, but they bear many of the hallmarks of her mature style, including an approach to personal matters — sex, love, illness, family life — that is at once uncompromising and elusive. She doesn’t flinch. She also doesn’t explain.

Here, for example, Glück assembles fragments of experience that imply — but also obscure — a larger narrative. It’s almost as if a short story, or even a novel, had been smashed like a glass Christmas ornament, leaving the reader to infer the sphere from the shards.

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We know there was a couple with a flat tire, and that a year later at least one of them still has feelings for the other. It’s hard not to wonder if they’re still together, or where they were going with those Christmas presents.

To some extent, those questions can be addressed with the help of biographical clues. The version of “Early December in Croton-on-Hudson” that appeared in The Atlantic in 1967 was dedicated to Charles Hertz, a Columbia University graduate student who was Glück’s first husband. They divorced a few years later. Glück, who died in 2023, was never shy about putting her life into her work.

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Louise Glück in 1975.

Gerard Malanga

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But the poem we are reading now is not just the record of a passion that has long since cooled. More than 50 years after “Firstborn,” on the occasion of receiving the Nobel Prize for literature, Glück celebrated the “intimate, seductive, often furtive or clandestine” relations between poets and their readers. Recalling her childhood discovery of William Blake and Emily Dickinson, she declared her lifelong ardor for “poems to which the listener or reader makes an essential contribution, as recipient of a confidence or an outcry, sometimes as co-conspirator.”

That’s the kind of poem she wrote.

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“Confidence” can have two meanings, both of which apply to “Early December in Croton-on-Hudson.” Reading it, you are privy to a secret, something meant for your ears only. You are also in the presence of an assertive, self-possessed voice.

Where there is power, there’s also risk. To give voice to desire — to whisper or cry “I want you” — is to issue a challenge and admit vulnerability. It’s a declaration of conquest and a promise of surrender.

What happens next? That’s up to you.

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Culture

Can You Identify Where the Winter Scenes in These Novels Took Place?

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Can You Identify Where the Winter Scenes in These Novels Took Place?

Cold weather can serve as a plot point or emphasize the mood of a scene, and this week’s literary geography quiz highlights the locations of recent novels that work winter conditions right into the story. Even if you aren’t familiar with the book, the questions offer an additional hint about the setting. To play, just make your selection in the multiple-choice list and the correct answer will be revealed. At the end of the quiz, you’ll find links to the books if you’d like to do further reading.

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Culture

From NYT’s 10 Best Books of 2025: A.O. Scott on Kiran Desai’s New Novel

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From NYT’s 10 Best Books of 2025: A.O. Scott on Kiran Desai’s New Novel

Inge Morath/Magnum Photos

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When a writer is praised for having a sense of place, it usually means one specific place — a postage stamp of familiar ground rendered in loving, knowing detail. But Kiran Desai, in her latest novel, “The Loneliness of Sonia and Sunny,” has a sense of places.

This 670-page book, about the star-crossed lovers of the title and several dozen of their friends, relatives, exes and servants (there’s a chart in the front to help you keep track), does anything but stay put. If “The Loneliness of Sonia and Sunny” were an old-fashioned steamer trunk, it would be papered with shipping labels: from Allahabad (now known as Prayagraj), Goa and Delhi; from Queens, Kansas and Vermont; from Mexico City and, perhaps most delightfully, from Venice.

There, in Marco Polo’s hometown, the titular travelers alight for two chapters, enduring one of several crises in their passionate, complicated, on-again, off-again relationship. One of Venice’s nicknames is La Serenissima — “the most serene” — but in Desai’s hands it’s the opposite: a gloriously hectic backdrop for Sonia and Sunny’s romantic confusion.

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Their first impressions fill a nearly page-long paragraph. Here’s how it begins.

Sonia is a (struggling) fiction writer. Sunny is a (struggling) journalist. It’s notable that, of the two of them, it is she who is better able to perceive the immediate reality of things, while he tends to read facts through screens of theory and ideology, finding sociological meaning in everyday occurrences. He isn’t exactly wrong, and Desai is hardly oblivious to the larger narratives that shape the fates of Sunny, Sonia and their families — including the economic and political changes affecting young Indians of their generation.

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But “The Loneliness of Sonia and Sunny” is about more than that. It’s a defense of the very idea of more, and thus a rebuke to the austerity that defines so much recent literary fiction. Many of Desai’s peers favor careful, restricted third-person narration, or else a measured, low-affect “I.” The bookstores are full of skinny novels about the emotional and psychological thinness of contemporary life. This book is an antidote: thick, sloppy, fleshy, all over the place.

It also takes exception to the postmodern dogma that we only know reality through representations of it, through pre-existing concepts of the kind to which intellectuals like Sunny are attached. The point of fiction is to assert that the world is true, and to remind us that it is vast, strange and astonishing.

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See the full list of the 10 Best Books of 2025 here.

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