Culture
NFL coaches pick the Super Bowl winner: Why they think Kansas City has the edge
For the second consecutive season, the Kansas City Chiefs enter the Super Bowl as an underdog. They defeated the favored Philadelphia Eagles last season and will try to knock off the favored San Francisco 49ers on Sunday.
Will it feel like an upset if Kansas City makes it happen? The Chiefs possess the ultimate edge in quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who is healthier this season than last and has played brilliantly through most of the playoffs.
Each year at this time, I ask a collection of NFL coaches which team they are picking to win the Super Bowl and why. Our panel fared pretty well last season, with the first coach correctly picking the Chiefs to win by three.
Four coaches weighed in with predictions this year. We pick up the conversation with a defensive coach’s insights into what bothers 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy, and whether the Chiefs are well-equipped to exploit this specific vulnerability.
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Defensive coach
The Fighting Taylor Swifts are playing better defense than the Niners right now, and that could be the difference. San Francisco has to play better on defense to win. The 49ers are still dangerous and violent, but they are giving up more yards and plays. I think they will play pretty good, but if you ask in my gut, I’d still think Kansas City pulls it out.
Affecting Brock Purdy is one of the biggest keys to this game. The teams that give Purdy problems are the ones that are able to affect him in the pocket. Cleveland was able to do that. Detroit could not affect him that way, but the Chiefs can. They do a really good job of getting their hands up. That’s a big deal against Brock. They can do a really good job of affecting not only the longer throws but the quicker throws at all the different launch angles.
Purdy’s strength is how strong his lower body is. George Kittle’s quote was really funny when he said Purdy looks like one of those little water dragons running across the water. That is exactly what Purdy looks like. His legs are strong as hell. But when you can push the pocket to his front foot, he struggles. It is hard to get there because sometimes they throw it fast, but I think the Chiefs have an ability to do that.
When people get to Purdy’s front foot, the ball will tail and drag or drift. Like the one he threw into the Packer guy’s belly. He couldn’t get full twist out of his hips and it floated. It is easier said than done to affect Purdy in this way. The 49ers know what they are doing, and Purdy is really good, and Kyle is good at calling it, but I think the Chiefs with four (rushers) can do that some of the time.
(Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo) is going to pressure and also play his two-high combination coverages. It is hard to play combination coverages when the 49ers get everybody out. They have positionless players. (Christian) McCaffrey is going to be a wideout, Deebo (Samuel) is going to be in the backfield and 44 (Kyle Juszczyk) is going to be everywhere. When you play them in split-safety defense and they can see it and get it out, the matchups can be really good.
The Chiefs do not always tackle well when you get them in space. Steve has done such a good job this year of not letting that happen. In other years, you could isolate their guys. All of Kyle’s guys are 6 feet or 6-1, 215 and can run after contact with great hands and anger. That would be their advantage if they can find ways to get around the D-line and then get those guys going.
I also think San Francisco will attack the edges in the run game, like Kyle did with Atlanta versus New England in the Super Bowl. If you can get around Kansas City’s interior and force guys other than (Justin) Reid to tackle, you can do some things. But you gotta get around their big guys. I think Kyle will find a way to do that, but I trust the Chiefs a little more.
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Defensive coordinator No. 1
This is going to be a really interesting game because Spags has that defense rolling, and I think it’s going to create problems. They’ll be able to get after Brock Purdy. Spags will come with some good schemes to at least make Purdy think, throw his rhythm off.
The 49ers, that whole team is built off a front-running mentality. When they play with a lead, they just pounce and they’re better, they’re more athletic, their talent shines. When they play from behind, it is usually different. Against Detroit, they came back. I’ll give them credit there, but Detroit royally screwed that up. What happened was not repeatable.
What you have to do with the 49ers is match them early. I would take the ball and try to score. Green Bay did that. I know it is only 7-0 early and doesn’t matter, but if you score early, you are not in response to them.
Mahomes will make the right plays when they need to. He’s been protecting the ball, which he hadn’t been doing the first half of the season as much. People have to honor Rashee Rice now. He has developed. MVS (Marquez Valdes-Scantling) has become more consistent.
The 49ers’ defense has shown throughout the playoffs they’ll get the ball moved on them. They don’t have many answers. You hit their soft spots and don’t let their rushers get going and they don’t get takeaways, you are fine. The coverage system isn’t elaborate. They’ve got one good corner, one safety playing really well.
When you have a guy like Andy Reid over there with Patrick Mahomes, they’re going to find those soft spots. Andy is OK taking 5 (yards) from Travis Kelce on a catch-and-run. It’s just hard to go against Reid and Mahomes.
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Defensive coordinator No. 2
The better team is probably San Francisco, but the Eagles were probably a better team last year, and it came down to Patrick Mahomes.
For San Francisco, so much of it is game flow. It’s not to say that Brock Purdy can’t come from behind. I’m not trying to say that. But I think they are a team that has a much better chance of winning when they play their game, whereas the Chiefs might find a way to win in any type of game a little bit better.
That is what happened in 2019 when those teams played. Kansas City was down two scores, and then all of a sudden, they are up two scores in the fourth quarter. It was unbelievable.
San Francisco came back to beat Green Bay and Detroit, but they were drastically better than those teams, especially Detroit. Detroit is not a team, in my opinion, that can hang with San Francisco. Detroit not being able to put that game away shows how much better of a team San Francisco was.
I could see San Fran’s defense not being dominant against the Chiefs. I don’t know if they are a dominant defense like they were with DeMeco Ryans and Robert Saleh. It doesn’t feel like they are all that. Deep down, I’m saying Chiefs.
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The 49ers’ offense is hard to defend because they have skill guys that can create yards after the catch and they have a quarterback who can read defenses very fast and put the ball in a spot accurately. Their dropback game is very timing-based, whereas Kansas City is not that.
Mahomes’ ability to play on or off schedule could be the difference. What makes Mahomes good is that he’s a great off-schedule quarterback who does not have to play off-schedule to be great. I always felt that was the thing with Russell Wilson. When everyone said he was great, I felt that to be a high-level quarterback, you still have to be able to throw it on time. Mahomes can do that.
Purdy’s not bad off-schedule because he’s got some slipperiness to him. He just doesn’t play as much off-time. Mahomes is elite off-time, and I think that’s Kansas City’s edge.
Offensive coach
Kansas City surprisingly with (Isiah) Pacheco runs the ball pretty well, and they’ve been more willing to run it, and I think that does take some pressure off Mahomes. It has served their defense well. That has probably made them a more complete team.
San Francisco gave up 280 yards against Detroit in the first half. Maybe they were surprised by Detroit, but they still haven’t figured out how to slow down the perimeter runs. Pacheco is a slasher, and if you got him on the edge, I think he would be good, despite being more of an inside runner.
Detroit just kept pinning the ends and tossing the ball, and the 49ers’ secondary was late in supporting. I’m sure San Francisco is going to make an adjustment for the crack toss plays. They just have to get someone up in faster support. That is not a major adjustment, but they probably will be reluctant to do it because of Mahomes.
I like Kansas City. I want to like San Francisco, but I think in these games, the quarterback matchup is pretty big, and this is a big separation between these guys.
Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel, those two guys could be enough to overcome that, but I don’t think so in this game.
Final thoughts
If the 49ers win, surely someone associated with their team will claim no one gave them a chance. It won’t be a huge stretch, despite oddsmakers favoring the 49ers, because so many people in and around the game are picking the Chiefs. I took Kansas City by a 24-20 margin in our staff picks. It wasn’t a pick against the 49ers as much as it was a fear of picking against Mahomes. I’ve sided with him in every week of the playoffs. Why stop now?
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(Top photos of Patrick Mahomes and Brock Purdy: Patrick Smith, Kevin Sabitus / Getty Images)
Culture
Explaining the lost generation of footballers who came after Messi and Ronaldo
On October 28, at the Theatre du Chatelet in Paris, there will be a new winner of the Ballon d’Or, the highest individual accolade in men’s football.
By common consent, the leading contenders are Brazilian winger Vinicius Junior, who scored in Real Madrid’s Champions League final victory, and Spanish midfielder Rodri, who excelled in triumphant campaigns for both Manchester City and his national team.
Should Vinicius Jr, 24, win the award, he will be the first player born in the 21st century to do so. More remarkably, Rodri would be the first winner born in the 1990s. Either would be the first winner to be born since December 1987. Such was the dominance of Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo, who have respectively won eight and five of the last 15 Ballon d’Or titles, a run punctuated only by victories for two of their contemporaries: Luka Modric in 2018 and Karim Benzema in 2022.
Messi, Ronaldo, Modric and Benzema were all born in the mid-to-late 1980s. All were regarded as prodigious talents in their teens. All have excelled deep into their thirties and only now, in the twilight years of their careers, have they begun to wind down: Messi, 37, in Major League Soccer with Inter Miami, and Ronaldo, 39, and Benzema, 36, in the Saudi Pro League with Al Nassr and Al Ittihad. Modric, 39, is still going strong at Real Madrid.
The brilliance of Messi and Ronaldo often overshadowed that of a group of players now in their early-to-mid thirties that includes Neymar, Toni Kroos, Kevin De Bruyne, Mohamed Salah, Virgil van Dijk, Harry Kane, Antoine Griezmann and the retired duo of Eden Hazard and Gareth Bale.
A new generation of superstars, proven or potential, has emerged, including Kylian Mbappe, Vinicius Jr, Erling Haaland, Jude Bellingham, Phil Foden, Jamal Musiala and Lamine Yamal. Of this group, Mbappe is the oldest at 25. The rest were all born since the turn of the century (as late as 2007, in the case of Yamal, the prodigiously talented Barcelona winger).
But what of those who came after Neymar, De Bruyne, Salah et al but before Mbappe? When it comes to the group born in the mid-1990s — a group who, logically speaking, should be around its collective peak — there is a gap, not necessarily in talent, but certainly in profile, recognition and, upon deeper analysis, representation in top-level football in Europe.
Nobody would describe the Ballon d’Or as the perfect barometer of individual performance, but take a look at this graphic that illustrates top-20 rankings by age group since 2008.
Away from the clustered centre of the graphic, what jumps out is that red area containing just a handful of dots. Selected findings include:
- Rodri finishing fifth in last year’s vote is the only top-five place for a player born between 1994 and 1997
- Beyond that, the only player in that age group to have earned a top-10 placing is Rodri’s Manchester City’s team-mate Bernardo Silva (ninth in 2019 and 2023)
- The only other top-20 placings in that age group have been Frenkie de Jong (11th in 2019), Raheem Sterling (12th in 2019 and 15th in 2021), Sebastien Haller (13th in 2022), Luis Diaz (18th in 2022) — none of whom was nominated this time — and Lautaro Martinez (20th in 2023)
- By contrast, from the younger age group, Mbappe has already recorded six consecutive top-10 placings while Haaland (twice), Vinicius Jr (twice) and Victor Osimhen have also finished in the top 10
- Of this year’s 30-man Ballon d’Or longlist, Rodri is one of just seven players born between 1994 and 1997. The other six are Ruben Dias, Hakan Calhanoglu, Artem Dovbyk, Alejandro Grimaldo, Ademola Lookman and Martinez, of whom only Dias and Martinez have been nominated previously.
Admittedly that is just the Ballon d’Or, an award voted for by journalists, drawing on subjective evaluations and, almost inevitably, coloured to some extent by players’ profiles as well as their performance. As a barometer of individual excellence, it is far from perfect — even if its less prestigious rival, the ‘Best’ FIFA award, has produced broadly similar results.
But it certainly tells you something about the way footballers are projected and valued. And when it comes to that group born in the mid-1990s, there is certainly a deficit.
In the cases of Rodri and Bernardo, highly sophisticated players who excel in understated roles at a club that lacks the media profile of the traditional superpowers, that has long seemed more a question of image than of quality. We will come back to that issue.
But there is more to this. Taken more broadly, that mid-1990s age group seems to be struggling for recognition — not just by fans or the media but within the game.
When the FIFA technical study group, led by former Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger, published its report on the 2022 World Cup, it briefly mentioned the tournament had been “defined by the performances of young talents and experienced masters”.
Wenger cited the technical prowess, physical strength and mental fortitude of Musiala, Bellingham and Saka at one end of the spectrum and, at the other end, of the enduring quality of players in their mid-to-late thirties such as Messi, Ronaldo, Modric and Olivier Giroud.
“In the modern game the young players are ready to perform earlier on the biggest stage,” he said before turning his mind to a generation of players who had continued to excel well into their thirties. “This,” said Wenger, referring to the latter group, “did not happen 20 years ago, so it looks like there is an extension of the career at the highest level.”
What Wenger and the technical study group did not address was the relative lack of impact made on the tournament by players in the in-between age group.
That was reflected in the age distribution of players at that World Cup. Of the 832 players called up for the tournament, the highest representations by birth year were for 1997 (ie, aged 25) and 1992 (ie, aged 30). Those born in 1994, who might logically have been at the optimum age for a World Cup held in 2022, came in at seventh.
That might be a mere statistical quirk rather than anything deeper, but there follows a graph illustrating the number of minutes played in the Premier League from 2018-19 to 2020-21. The findings are mostly as you would expect: the dominant group is the one born between 1991 and 1994 — those who were between 23 and 27 when that cycle began and between 26 and 30 when the cycle finished. Think of it as the De Bruyne, Kane, Salah generation.
There is a significant drop in the number of Premier League minutes in that time by players born in 1995, i.e. those aged between 23 and 27 over the period in question.
Again it could just be a wrinkle, indicative of nothing much. You would expect that age group to become more dominant over the next three-year period.
But they didn’t. As it transpired, that 1995 age group got barely more playing time between 2021-22 and 2023-24, a period during which they were between the ages of 26 and 29. The minutes played by those born in the early 1990s fell, as you would expect, but so did the numbers for those born in 1993, 1994 and 1995, who might otherwise have expected to become the dominant groups over that period.
Instead, the dominant age groups now were those born in 1996 and 1997 — those aged between 24 and 25 when the cycle began and 26 and 27 when the cycle ended. Those born in 1995 were drastically underrepresented. Even those born in 2001 (players aged between 20 and 23 over the period in question) came close to the total playing time of those born in 1995.
To put some names to the numbers, think of it in similar terms to England’s Euro 2024 squad selection, where players in their mid-to-late twenties such as Sterling (born in 1994), Kalvin Phillips and Jack Grealish (1995), Ben Chilwell and James Maddison (1996) and Marcus Rashford (1997) found themselves usurped by younger players such as Anthony Gordon (born in 2001), Cole Palmer (2002) and Kobbie Mainoo (2005)
It seems to reflect a wider trend. Using the same three-year cycles, the dominant age group in terms of playing time across Europe’s ‘big five’ leagues (Premier League, Bundesliga, La Liga, Serie A and Ligue 1) has shifted from those born in the early 1990s to those born from 1997 onwards. Again the mid-’90s group that theoretically should have been in the ascendancy over the past few seasons has been overtaken by a younger group.
Jose Chieira, who has been a scout for more than two decades at clubs such as Sporting Lisbon, Porto and Panathinaikos, considers the question before declaring, “I don’t believe in generational gaps” — at least not in terms of talent and quality.
But he believes market forces have created a gap. “In the last six or seven years, the strategies of the dominant forces in the market are increasingly based on a different logic,” he tells The Athletic. “It is increasingly a trading business — a typically American trading culture.
“Clubs don’t (today) go looking for players who were born before 2000. We’re already filtering for players under 23 years old. Any older and it’s not a good deal, it’s not attractive. And that has consequences for the way the market has evolved in terms of the talents or the profile of the players who dominate the game.”
As Chieira suggests, there has been a decisive shift as many clubs’ business models have moved towards developing and selling young players to those clubs higher up the food chain.
Of the 50 biggest transfers to Premier League clubs this summer, according to Transfermarkt, only eight involved players aged 26-plus (Tottenham Hotspur’s Dominic Solanke, West Ham United’s Max Kilman and Niclas Fullkrug, Arsenal’s Mikel Merino, Fulham’s Joachim Andersen and Sander Berge, Southampton’s Aaron Ramsdale and Newcastle United’s Odysseas Vlachodimos). Ten years earlier, in the summer of 2014, that age bracket accounted for eight of the 25 biggest deals. The market for players in their mid-to-late twenties is nothing like it was.
Real Madrid’s Champions League-winning squad last season was dominated by a cluster of players born in the 1980s and early 1990s (Thibaut Courtois, Dani Carvajal, Nacho, Antonio Rudiger, David Alaba, Lucas Vazquez, Modric and Kroos) and a group of young stars born in the late 1990s and early 2000s (including Federico Valverde, Eduardo Camavinga, Aurelien Tchouameni, Vinicius Jr, Rodrygo and Bellingham). Again, that mid-1990s group was barely present: just backup goalkeeper Kepa Arrizabalaga (1994) Ferland Mendy (1995) and Dani Ceballos (1996). When Nacho and Kroos moved on this summer, the incoming players were much younger, notably Mbappe (1998) and Brazilian prodigy Endrick (2006).
It is similar at Barcelona: a handful of players born either in the late 1980s (Robert Lewandowski) and early 1990s (Inigo Martinez and Marc-Andre ter Stegen) and a core of players born in from the late 1990s onwards. Between Ter Stegen (1992) and Dani Olmo (1998), there are just three players: Andreas Christensen and Raphinha (both 1996) and De Jong (1997).
An extreme example concerns Chelsea, whose strategy over the past couple of years has appeared to exclude almost any player born before 1997. Their squad last season comprised primarily of Thiago Silva (born 1984), Sterling (1994), Chilwell (1996) and a vast core of younger players, the majority of them born since the turn of the century. Sterling and Chilwell found themselves frozen out completely before this season began: big earners in their late twenties, said to be incompatible with the technical demands of new coach Enzo Maresca.
“This tendency to focus on trading in the talent market has been decisive in creating this apparent gap,” Chieira says. “It will become increasingly difficult to find players in that exact age range — between the ages of 24 and 30, say — who can be true standout players and reference points like Bernardo Silva and others are today. More and more clubs don’t really want to ‘waste time’ working with players over the age of 24 because there’s a commercial logic that tells from that, from 25 or 26, the player will lose value. Therefore the effort and financial resources are directed towards younger players.”
That has certainly appeared true of Chelsea. But there are notable exceptions.
One is Bayern Munich, whose core group includes Leon Goretzka, Joshua Kimmich, Joao Palhinha and Serge Gnabry (all born in 1995) and Leroy Sane, Kingsley Coman and Kim Min-jae (1996).
And there are the Premier League champions, Manchester City, who have John Stones, Mateo Kovacic and Bernardo (all born in 1994), Nathan Ake, Manuel Akanji and Grealish (1995), Rodri (1996) and Dias (1997).
In some ways, that seems instructive when it comes to the profile — technical and otherwise — of the more successful players in that age group.
Since calling time on a playing career that took him from Port Vale to Luton Town, Leicester City and Fleetwood Town, Joe Davis has launched a digital marketing agency that supports professional footballers and athletes build their brand.
He has studied that subject in depth from a commercial and a sporting perspective. “The Messi-Ronaldo era is unique,” he says. “They created this unrealistic expectation of what it means to be a football megastar. They redefined the ceiling, which has overshadowed much of the incredible talent that came next.”
Davis feels it is only as Messi and Ronaldo have begun to wind down, away from the intensity of the European football spotlight, that “we have allowed ourselves to recognise the talent of players like Haaland and Mbappe. It was the in-between group that, with Messi and Ronaldo in their prime, were overlooked for so long”.
With his marketing head on, Davis wonders whether there was a commercial aspect to this, talking about the “immaturity of athlete branding” through much of the 2010s. The opportunities for the modern players to promote themselves are far greater, he says, which is one reason why “this new wave of young talent” — Mbappe, Haaland, Vinicius Jr, Bellingham, Musiala, Yamal and so on — “has become so big so soon”.
The word “wave” is apposite. Whether it is music, film, sport or just about anything else, we are conditioned to see such phenomena in those terms. Sometimes it takes one band, one star or athlete to force a way through and blaze a trail for others to follow. Sometimes there is a desperation to anoint new stars. Sometimes it is the opposition: a desperate refusal to look beyond the zeitgeist and its leading characters.
But away from off-pitch image and profile, Davis suggests another factor that has played into the hands of the new wave: a subtle shift in playing styles which he says has been “arguably more accommodating to ‘luxury’ players” — or at least to those such as Haaland and Mbappe, whose goalscoring talents are so extreme that, breaking into elite-level football, they were not encumbered with as many out-of-possession demands as, say they might have been had they been born five years earlier.
Davis cites his experience as a 20-year-old defender for Port Vale, playing against an 18-year-old Grealish, who was on loan to Notts County. “He was everywhere: tracking back, covering the full-back, pressing our winger, then getting back out to the byline to receive the ball,” Davis says. “At that time, making it wasn’t just about talent; it was also about hard work and discipline, that, ‘Don’t let us down’ mentality. You see it with Bernardo Silva as well — tremendous quality and intelligence but defensive intensity and adaptability as well.
“That era — my era — possibly had different values instilled in them during their breakthrough years, which is probably why they play their game a little more under the radar and in a more structured and workmanlike way. That naturally takes the limelight off them and places it on the more exciting, carefree, creative players — those that immediately capture the imagination of the casual fan.”
That makes perfect sense. That group of players now in their mid-to-late twenties broke into senior football when demands were changing due to an increased emphasis on the type of work they did off the ball — not just “tracking back” but closing down in a structured, organised way. Through the 2010s, the role of the traditional centre-forward seemed to be under threat, which is perhaps why, beyond Martinez, there are so few “pure” goalscorers in that age group.
There is a strange paradox. In terms of profile and projection, the cult of the individual has grown over the past decade like never before, such has been the explosion of social media and global branding. At the same time, the cult of the individual on the pitch has diminished. In the past, leading teams might have been able to carry a “luxury” player or two. That changed Pep Guardiola and Jurgen Klopp built teams whose commitment to creative football came with non-negotiable physical and tactical demands on every player. It is easy to imagine that, if they were five years older or five years younger, Bernardo and Valverde might have been deployed as mercurial wingers or No 10s rather than cerebral, multi-functional midfielders.
But individualism seems to be back in vogue. So does what might be termed ‘main-character energy’. Mbappe, Haaland, Vinicius Jr, Bellingham, Musiala, Yamal… this is a generation of leading players who are encouraged to “do their thing” and play to their enormous strengths — which, in the cases of Mbappe and Haaland, has meant scoring goals at an extraordinary rate rather than worrying unduly about the structure of their team’s pressing game.
They are players whose rare talents merit indulgence — and all of the hype and adulation that comes with their exploits.
The brilliance of Kylian Mbappe
Maybe the story is less complicated than that. Maybe the development of top-class athletes is analogous to wine production. Some years, for reasons that can be hard to explain, yield better crops than others.
To put it in blunt terms, 1987 was a vintage year that brought Messi, Benzema and Luis Suarez; 1992 brought Neymar, Salah, Courtois, Son Heung-min and Sadio Mane; 1998 brought Mbappe, Osimhen, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Valverde and Martin Odegaard; 2000 brought Haaland, Vinicius Jr, Foden, Julian Alvarez and Aurelien Tchouameni.
By comparison, the mid-1990s age group is strangely underwhelming. Transfermarkt’s most valuable footballer born in 1995 is Ollie Watkins, whose career has been a slow-burner, coming up through the leagues with Exeter City and Brentford before establishing himself as a proven goalscorer in the Premier League with Aston Villa in his mid-twenties. The second-most valuable player born in 1996, behind Rodri, is Maddison, who, as he approaches his 28th birthday, has seven caps for England and is yet to play in the Champions League.
It is fascinating to look back at the list of winners of the Golden Boy award, established by Italian football newspaper Tuttosport to recognise the best player under the age of 21 in each calendar year.
Early winners of the award include Wayne Rooney, Messi and Cesc Fabregas. The past four editions have been won by Bellingham, Haaland and the Barcelona duo of Gavi and Pedri. Before that, it was Joao Felix, Matthijs de Ligt and Mbappe.
For the 2014, 2015 and 2016 editions, which covered the age group we have been talking about, the winners were Sterling (then at Liverpool), Anthony Martial (then at Manchester United) and Renato Sanches (then at Bayern Munich) — exciting talents certainly, but even at that stage of their careers they did not command the same hype or expectation as a young Rooney, Fabregas or Bellingham, let alone a teenage Mbappe or Messi.
Neither did the other names who featured in the top three for the Golden Boy over those years: Rashford, Divock Origi, Marquinhos, Kingsley Coman and Hector Bellerin.
They have had long and successful careers; Marquinhos is captain of Paris Saint-Germain and has won 91 caps for Brazil; Coman has won the Champions League with Bayern Munich and played for France in the 2022 World Cup final; Origi scored for Liverpool in a Champions League final.
But even if Martial, Renato Sanches, Rashford and Origi can be accused of falling short of their potential, we are not being wise after the event to suggest they were exciting teenagers whose promise was pockmarked with inconsistencies, rather than dead certs to thrive at elite level. Maybe, for reasons that defy explanation, these were just non-vintage crops.
The ‘lost generation’ phenomenon is far starker and far more unambiguous in men’s tennis. The dominance of the ‘Big Three’ of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic was so extreme that they won 53 out of the 61 Grand Slam tournaments held between June 2005 and June 2020.
There were break-out victories for Andy Murray and Stan Wawrinka (three majors each) and Juan Martin Del Potro and Marin Cilic (one apiece), but all four of those players were in roughly the same age bracket as Nadal and Djokovic.
How Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic reconfigured tennis
The real lost generation in men’s tennis was the one that that came later and, sharing the circuit with players whose genius was matched by their powers of endurance, found there was no way through. Austria’s Dominic Thiem (born in 1993) and Daniil Medvedev (1996) are the the only men born between 1989 and 2000 to have won a Grand Slam.
The latest ATP rankings tell a story: beyond Djokovic (1987) in fourth place, Bulgaria’s Grigor Dimitrov (1991) is the only player in the top 20 who was born between 1988 and 1995. It is Carlos Alcaraz (2003) and Jannik Sinner (2001) who are leading men’s tennis into the post-Big Three era.
The idea of a lost generation is certain to be far hazier in a team sport such as football, where individual performance is so much harder to quantify. The term does not truly fit when a) we are talking about a period spanning four years or so and b) almost every top-level game you watch features high-performing players from that age group, one of whom, Rodri, would have a claim to be considered the most influential player in world football over the past three or four years.
But it seems unarguable that, as a collective, the players born in the mid-1990s have been overshadowed by the group that went before and, increasingly, by the group that has emerged since. The Ballon d’Or rankings will never tell the whole story but they help illustrate the deficit of big personalities and show-stopping talents that command the greatest attention and recognition.
The absence of a Ronaldo/Messi figure is entirely normal, but it is also a group that is strangely short of A-list goalkeepers, central defenders, wingers and centre-forwards. Almost without exception, the best players in that age group are sophisticated, adaptable ‘system players’ rather than marauding box-to-box dynamos and mercurial playmakers.
Beyond that, market forces have begun to conspire against them as the focus has switched decisively towards youth. What might have expected to be the pre-eminent age group in 2024 has begun to struggle for playing time and to be squeezed out, particularly where wages or wage demands are deemed excessive. Adrien Rabiot, 29, has been unable to find a new club since leaving Juventus in June. Memphis Depay, 30, found numerous avenues in Europe closed and ended up joining Brazilian club Corinthians. It is not clear where Sterling, 29 and surplus to requirements at Chelsea, would have ended up had Arsenal not offered him a lifeline on transfer deadline day
And Sterling, while his returns have diminished over recent seasons, has certainly been one of the standout performers in his age group: a Golden Boy winner as a teenager at Liverpool, four times a Premier League champion at Manchester City, 82 England caps and, yes, a couple of top-20 finishes in the Ballon d’Or rankings, which is more than almost any other player in that mid-1990s age group.
Should his former Manchester City team-mate Rodri be crowned the best player in men’s football in 2024, it would represent a departure in terms of profile, playing style but also age. In many ways, Rodri would be the perfect choice, the quietly brilliant standard-bearer of an age group that has largely gone unheralded.
Unshowy, undemonstrative and, this sudden, long-overdue wave of Rodri appreciation notwithstanding, largely unheralded — fanfare, at last, for football’s jilted generation.
(Top photos: Getty Images; graphic: Meech Robinson)
Culture
Sidney Crosby’s new Penguins contract is his sweetest assist yet
Enjoy the next three years of watching Sidney Crosby play for the Pittsburgh Penguins. Breathe it in. Cherish it. Get a little sentimental, if necessary.
Never in your lifetime will you see his kind again.
I’m not talking about the hockey, the backhand, the vision, the power, the tenacity — you know, all of the stuff that has made him one of the greatest hockey players of all time.
No, this is about Crosby the person, an unselfish figure at a time when sports is infiltrated with such greed that professional athletes are even further from reality.
Oh, sure, Crosby will make more money next season than the vast majority of us will ever see in our lives. He’s not living in a studio apartment anytime soon. His new contract, however, illustrates so much about Crosby the person and Crosby the captain.
GO DEEPER
Penguins re-sign Crosby to new 2-year contract
By signing a two-year contract that kicks in after this season on Monday, Crosby once again turned down more money to remain compensated at his regular salary-cap hit of $8.7 million per season. While his countless superstitions are the stuff of legend, we make far too much out of them. More than anything, he isn’t greedy and cares about the fortunes of this franchise.
Kyle Dubas had no leverage. The Penguins general manager and president of hockey operations is very well compensated and just as powerful, but he’s not more powerful than Crosby.
It wouldn’t be like that in other cities and on other teams, but this is different. In Pittsburgh, the hockey stars are bigger than the franchise. And Crosby isn’t just another star. He’s one of the most important hockey players of this century and one of the best. He’s still going strong and easily could have commanded many more millions annually. Dubas would have given him whatever he wanted. He had no choice.
Crosby never chooses Crosby, though. His kind and unselfish persona illustrates the real person. There is nothing phony or insincere about him. Winning is the only thing that drives him, which has been the case since he emerged as a 17-year-old 20 summers ago.
By my estimation, Crosby has left roughly $43M on the table taking $8.7M every season since 2008-09. https://t.co/JRn4vKFkLO
— dom 📈 (@domluszczyszyn) September 16, 2024
The contract’s two-year term is every bit as noteworthy as the money.
This deal will take Crosby through his age-39 season, a couple of months shy of his 40th birthday. Is this the final contract of Crosby’s career? Maybe. Forty is a nice, round number, and by that time, more than half of his life will have been spent as Penguins captain. That will also mark the conclusion of his 22nd NHL season. That’s a lot of hockey, and it’s not like he has anything left to accomplish.
The two-year term has some implications. Let’s break it all down:
• At a minimum, you get to watch Crosby for at least three more seasons. That should provide great comfort for those of you dreading his retirement.
• The Penguins are not going into a “full rebuild” for at least three more years. As Dubas has noted, they’re unlikely to be a bottom-five team at any point with Crosby still on the roster because he’s too good. We’ll see a mini-rebuild or a reload instead.
• Crosby could have asked for more years. The Penguins would give the captain as many years as he wanted. He opted against it because he didn’t want to hamstring the team. What if he had signed to play for five more years, but after the first couple of years, realized his passion for the game had evaporated? Or maybe his play will decline. That seems like a foreign concept because he’s the most consistently great superstar in the history of the sport. He appears to be ageless. But I assure you, he is not. He’ll turn human at some point. Crosby knows that and doesn’t want to negatively impact the Penguins if it happens soon.
The worst-case scenario is that Crosby will play in a Penguins uniform for three more years, the team doesn’t make the playoffs, Crosby retires in 2027 and Dubas has a boatload of money — and young assets — to give him the freedom to turn the Penguins into a winner in a hurry.
So, at worst, you get to see Crosby until the very end. You get to enjoy his farewell tour. And all the while, you’ll know a new wave of Penguins players is learning to be a pro from one of the greatest captains in hockey history.
That’s the beauty of the two-year contract: It’s long enough to enjoy him for a few more years but not so long to paint himself and the Penguins into a corner.
If he’s still great at 39 and wants to play longer, well, that’s even better. No one has to show Crosby the door. And by then, the Penguins might be ready to win. Dubas is doing what he’s supposed to be doing. He’s fiercely committed to developing talented young players, nothing like the occasional call-up from Wilkes-Barre that we’ve seen over the past few seasons.
The best-case scenario would be if Crosby, who is still one of the five or 10 best players in the league, can maintain that level of play for a few more years, just as all of these young assets suddenly blossom.
Crosby’s final act with the Penguins could be special if those two possibilities converge. Watching him make a final run or two at a championship with a bunch of kids who will carry the torch would be something.
It’s hardly unimaginable. Much of this will be made possible by the deal he signed. It saved the franchise significant money to spend on other players and assets. It keeps Crosby in everyone’s life for a while, but not for too long, just in case the time to retire is near. If he’s still great and hungry at 39, he’ll sign another short-term deal. Why not?
It’s so practical, unselfish and intelligent. It’s so Crosby.
He will rightfully receive enormous amounts of love from all of Pittsburgh and Penguins fans around the globe. It’s deserved.
But with this deal, Crosby reciprocates all of that affection right back.
He really is one of a kind.
(Photo: Steph Chambers / Getty Images)
Culture
United States wins Solheim Cup for first time since 2017
The Solheim Cup again belongs to the Americans.
The U.S. team successfully finished their leftover business from a year ago, winning the cup for the first time since 2017. The final score was 15.5-12.5, the biggest gap since 2017 when the Americans won by five points.
It was Lilia Vu who earned the clinching half-point. Down by one in her match to Albane Valenzuela, Vu sent the crowd at Robert Trent Jones Golf Course in Gainesville, Va. into hysteria with an approach shot at No. 18 hit to two feet. Valenzuela left her long birdie putt short, Vu smoothly hit her ball in and got the U.S. to 14.5 points.
Vu, wrapped in an American flag, told NBC that she felt like she had not done enough to help the team this week but that Sunday was her chance to make up for it.
“On the 18th hole, in the middle of the fairway, I saw we were at 14 points and I was like, oh shoot, I better birdie this. Let me try my best,” Vu said.
U.S. captain Stacy Lewis helmed a winning strategy all week, beginning on Friday with a pair of sessions that the U.S. won 3-1. The European team fought back to tie the U.S. in both sessions on Saturday, but it left the Euros still four points down and needing a dramatic Sunday singles rally.
That did not come, with Lewis putting many of her best players all week out first. While Charley Hull dominated world No. 1 Nelly Korda 6&4 in the opening match and Georgia Hall beat Alison Lee 4&3 in match No. 3, there was enough American firepower to earn the necessary points.
Megan Khang beat Emily Pedersen 6&5 for point No. 11, and Rose Zhang (4-0 this week without ever having to play the final two holes) took down Carlota Ciganda 6&4 for the 12th point. Allisen Corpuz beat Anna Nordqvist 4&3 for the 13th point. Andrea Lee earned a half-point against Esther Henseleit.
There were then tense moments as the Americans searched for the clinching point.
Celine Boutier, three down after 11 holes, rallied in her match against Lexi Thompson, making a birdie on No. 18 to win and narrow it to 13.5-9.5. Leona Maguire, curiously only used once in the first two days despite a stellar history in this event, got the Euros to 10.5 points with a 4&3 win against Ally Ewing. Then Maja Stark made a 10-foot par putt to half her match with Lauren Coughlin, leaving the U.S. a half-point shy.
A year ago the Solheim Cup ended in a 14-14 tie so the Europeans, winners of the 2019 and 2021 competitions, retained the cup. That left a sour taste in the mouths of the Americans, who spoke openly of their desire to finish the job this time around.
The event is typically held biennially but was held back-to-back years to get away from the Ryder Cup schedule.
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(Top photo of Rose Zhang: Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)
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