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NBA playoff predictions: Why I like Celtics and Nuggets, early West upsets and more

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2 weeks ago

April 20, 2024

NBA playoff predictions: Why I like Celtics and Nuggets, early West upsets and more

We, as a species, have trouble imagining something until it actually happens. The NBA playoffs are a perfect vessel from which to view this particular shortcoming.

The Boston Celtics just completed a regular season in which they won 64 games, winning their conference by a staggering 14 games and posting the fifth-best scoring margin of all time at plus-11.3 points per game. They won or split the season series with 28 of their 29 opponents (good job, Denver), had no losing streak longer than two games and now take no significant injuries into the postseason.

And yet, it seems hard to find people who would describe Boston as an overwhelming favorite, because they haven’t seen this group of Celtics win it all but have seen them fall short several times.

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We’ve seen this movie before, of course. Nobody will admit it today, but a lot of people had a hard time imagining the Denver Nuggets winning the Western Conference, let alone the NBA Finals, last spring … even though they were the top seed in the conference, had a two-time MVP as their centerpiece and their starting five was dominant anytime it played together. Some folks even talked themselves into the Lakers–Warriors second-round series — between two teams that combined to go 87-77 in the regular season — as the “real” conference finals.

Yeah, not so much.

Flip to 2024, and we almost have the opposite problem. People speak of the Nuggets in hallowed terms, with the word “inevitable” being thrown around. Don’t get me wrong — they’re good — but that description may be a bit rich for a team that’s always one injury away from playing extremely makeshift lineups. Nitpickers also will point out that Denver glided through a cleaned-out bracket last year, facing two eighth seeds and a seventh seed on the way to glory. The Nuggets were worthy, asterisk-free 2023 champions, but 2024 is a different year.

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And the Celtics? Until the Jayson Tatum-Jaylen Brown core wins the big one in June, they’ll always have doubters. But that’s no different from several other eventual champions; people thought the same thing about the Shaq-Kobe Lakers (did too) and Kevin Garnett’s Celtics and Dirk Nowitzki’s Mavs and countless others, right up until last year’s Nuggets.

I must point out the odds are pretty heavily in Boston’s favor to get it done this time. Of the 15 teams to post a margin of plus-9.3 or greater in an 82-game NBA season — taking us two points below what the Celtics did — only the 2015-16 Warriors (who lost the NBA Finals in seven games) and the 2015-16 Spurs failed to win a title. The other 13 won, many in romps.

Even if you just look at basic wins and losses, teams that both win 60 games and have the league’s best record have ended up winning the title more than half the time: 16 times in 31 cases. The last one of those was Phoenix in 2022, which went out with a whimper in the second round against Dallas after winning the same 64 games these Celtics won, so that recency bias may be tilting us a little.

I’ll give you another reason to like Boston: The Celtics are one of only four teams in the “52-3-3” club, and the only one in the East. Of the NBA’s 44 champions since 1980, 43 of them won at least 52 games (pro-rated to 82 for shortened campaigns), had at least a plus-3.0 scoring margin and were one of the top three seeds in their conference. That winnows down your field of potential champions to the top three seeds in the West (Oklahoma City, Denver and Minnesota) and the Celtics.

To counter my point, some argue load management, not to mention general coasting by elite teams, has made the regular season less determinative than it used to be. Last spring, for instance, we had first-round upsets by teams seeded fifth, sixth, seventh and eighth, with a No. 7 seed making the West finals (Lakers) and a No. 8 seed (Miami) crashing the NBA Finals. Lower-seeded teams won seven of the 15 series overall. (From that perspective, reviewing my own performance, getting nine of the 15 bracket lines correct before the playoffs started feels pretty good.)

But even in recent history, a postseason like last year’s is rare. A typical NBA playoffs only sees four teams without home-court advantage advance out of the 15 series; we only had two in 2019, 2017 and 2015, and before last year, we hadn’t had more than five since 1995.

However, perhaps this season the playoffs are rife for more upsets because the standings are so jumbled (well, except for Boston). Every East playoff team besides the Celtics finished with between 46 and 50 wins; the striations in the West were a bit deeper, but every series still looks competitive up and down the board.

Projecting this postseason was maddening, especially in the East. But the bigger issue is adjusting for the unknown of who is actually playing. Late-season injuries to elite players could massively tilt the odds if they can’t play. Already we’ve seen that in the Play-In, with Zion Williamson and Jimmy Butler out and Alex Caruso questionable.

More questions loom for the first round. How much are we going to see of Giannis Antetokounmpo? Joel Embiid? Kawhi Leonard? And what of guys like Tyrese Haliburton and Donovan Mitchell, who are almost certainly playing but might not be at full strength?

So, we bravely go into this knowing the potential to look stupid is off the charts. Even the Celtics, as dominant as they were in the regular season, don’t necessarily get a free pass to the title. As good as they are up and down the roster, they won’t have the best player on the floor in several potential matchups, which is always worrisome. Additionally, injuries, slumps, hot streaks and general weirdness can always throw a wrench into a short series.

But we don’t aim for clairvoyance here. I am just trying to project what is likely. Inevitably, I won’t go 15-for-15 or anywhere close to it. However, after agonizing over several matchups — particularly in the 1-4-5 bracket in the West — here’s what I think is most likely to happen this postseason. Apologies if it’s chalkier than you’d prefer.

West first round

No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. No. 8 Sacramento Kings or New Orleans Pelicans

I’m not sure these will be totally comfortable series for the Thunder, even if they play the Pelicans without Williamson. New Orleans has waves of defenders to throw at Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Brandon Ingram has always played better when he’s not sharing the court with Williamson. Sacramento, meanwhile, has the ability to physically mash OKC with Domantas Sabonis and won two of the four regular-season meetings between the teams.

But there’s a big difference between being uncomfortable and being on the wrong side of the scoreboard four times in seven games. Sacramento is also short-handed because of late-season injuries to Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter, leaving it underpowered against a Thunder team that has too many offensive weapons of its own. I’ll give the Kings their respect and say they can extend the series a bit, while New Orleans probably only has enough left in the tank to grab one game. Pick: Thunder in six vs. Kings; Thunder in five vs. Pelicans

Chet Holmgren and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander celebrate after a play against the Timberwolves in March. (Alonzo Adams / USA Today)

No. 2 Denver Nuggets vs. No. 7 Los Angeles Lakers

My basic rule of thumb is that teams without home-court advantage in the first round are toast unless they at least split the season series. The Lakers lost to Denver 3-0.

Here’s the other, more compelling reason to pick against Los Angeles: Even when Anthony Davis and LeBron James were on the court together, the Lakers just weren’t that good. They finished the season with a plus-0.6 scoring margin, the worst of any of the 18 teams with a winning regular-season record. Even with their dynamic duo on the floor, they were only plus-3.4 points per 100 possessions. That’s the worst number on the board from a playoff team with its two best players, except for New Orleans.

Meanwhile, the Nuggets are ridiculous when their starters play. To the extent they struggled this season, it was almost entirely with bench-heavy whatever units soaking up minutes. Heck, even when they played Aaron Gordon as the backup five and not one of Zeke Nnaji or DeAndre Jordan, they still had a better scoring margin than the Lakers.

As a result, I don’t think this chapter in the series will go much better for Los Angeles than the previous ones. The Lakers have played a series of close games against Denver over the last two years and will eventually win at least one of them. But if Nikola Jokić finishes the series upright, it’s hard to see how Denver doesn’t advance. Pick: Nuggets in five

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No. 3 Minnesota Timberwolves vs. No. 6 Phoenix Suns

One of my best preseason predictions — or so I thought — was that Minnesota would win a playoff series for the first time since 2004. And then this happens! The Wolves drew perhaps the worst possible opponent in Phoenix, a team that beat them soundly three times in the regular season.

Moreover, the reason the Suns beat them makes conceptual sense. The Wolves love drop coverage and excel at keeping opponents away from the rim; the Suns aren’t all that interested in getting there in the first place. Devin Booker, Bradley Beal and Kevin Durant are Team Pull-Up, devouring opponents by raining jumpers when they can get space coming around a screen. Additionally, the Suns afford no clear hiding spot for Karl-Anthony Towns, forcing him to check a perimeter scorer.

Obviously there are adjustments Minnesota can make to take this away, but this isn’t how the Wolves want to play or what they do best. The most radical adjustment would be to limit the minutes of Towns and Naz Reid and go massively smaller with Kyle Anderson at the four, but that may compromise Minnesota’s spacing too much. The other adjustment, of course, is to score so much that it doesn’t matter; the Suns are not an overwhelming defensive squad, and the Wolves might be able to mash them to pieces in the paint.

Nonetheless, the story here feels more about Phoenix. After a series of fits and starts, Phoenix closed the year on a 30-15 clip and finally projects as the team we thought it might be at the start of the season. The Suns aren’t deep, but their starting five had a plus-11.1 per 100 scoring margin, and several units with Eric Gordon or Royce O’Neale were nearly as good. Phoenix may not have the depth to make a deep run, especially up front, and health worries always hang over this team’s four best players. But in a single short series against a perfect matchup for them, where they come in healthy? Yeah, they’re a handful. Pick: Suns in six

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No. 4 LA Clippers vs. No. 5 Dallas Mavericks

This one is a great unknown on some levels, and not just because of Leonard’s uncertain status.

These teams haven’t played since Dec. 20, and even that game was missing both Paul George and Kyrie Irving. While the Clippers won two of three in the regular season, both teams have changed dramatically since opening day. The Clippers added James Harden, moved Russell Westbrook to the bench and upgraded Amir Coffey to a rotation spot; Dallas traded for Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington and retooled around them.

Both teams also have had awesome stretches — a 16-2 run by Dallas before shutting its players down for the year, a 32-9 half-season eruption from the Clippers — and have impressive numbers with their stars on the court. Dallas outscores opponents by 10.5 points per 100 when Luka Dončić and Irving share the court, while the Clippers are plus-12.6 per 100 with George and Leonard.

These teams also met in the playoffs in 2020 and 2021, with the 2021 series in particular being a seven-game classic in which the road team won the first six games. The Clippers won both of those series and, on paper, would seem to have a slight edge in this one; first, because three stars are better than two; and second, because their second-line players are better than Dallas’, even with the trade deadline upgrades.

But Playoff Luka has been a cheat code, and I’m not sure Leonard can match him in his current state. Go back and look at the series from 2021: That Clippers team was much stronger than this one, with peak Leonard and an impressive bench; they screwed with load management all year and still ended up with a plus-6 scoring margin, and yet in the playoffs, they had their hands full with Luka. Dončić is going to attack Ivica Zubac again and again in pick-and-roll, just like he did in that series, and I’m not sure what the Clippers’ counters are.

Now that Dončić has Irving as his wingman, even if the second-line guys aren’t as good, I still like Dallas’ chances. That’s especially true when the alternative is betting on Leonard to stay healthy through a postseason series. I expect this series to be tremendous theater, and if Leonard is healthy, the Clippers are a real threat to make the conference finals. But if forced to choose, I trust Dallas a bit more. Pick: Mavs in seven

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East first round

No. 1 Boston Celtics vs. No. 8 Miami Heat or Chicago Bulls

Let’s see, the most dominant team in the league facing either the Heat without Butler or the Bulls potentially without Caruso. Yeah, this should be brief. Boston swept both teams 3-0 in the regular season; all three wins over Chicago were by double figures. Maybe the underdogs take a game while the Celtics play with their food; more likely, though, the end is merciful and quick. Pick: Celtics in four

No. 2 New York Knicks vs. No. 7 Philadelphia 76ers

Embiid showed in the Play-In against Miami that he still isn’t quite at full strength with his movement, and that hurt the Sixers at times. Even so, Philadelphia is now an impressive 30-7 this season when Embiid and Tyrese Maxey both play, with the Sixers outscoring opponents by 12.4 points per 100 possessions in the minutes they share the court together. That’s impressive, but two things worry me about Philly.

First, I just don’t think its supporting cast is good enough, especially if De’Anthony Melton can’t make it back into the mix. Second, the Knicks have some awesome numbers of their own. The small sample size of OG Anunoby minutes has seen them crush teams. More notably, even in the much larger sample of minutes with virtually any combination of Josh Hart, Jalen Brunson, Donte DiVincenzo and Isaiah Hartenstein, they’ve run teams off the floor. New York is plus-15.2 per 100 when those four play together, and thanks to Tom Thibodeau, we have a pretty large minutes sample to work with from that group.

Not having Julius Randle is a bit of a worry, but the Knicks on-off numbers with and without Randle this year aren’t all that different; where his absence hurts is if another injury hits and forces secondary players into prominent roles. In particular, if anything happens to Brunson, the Knicks have nobody who can dribble; their offense already craters when he’s off the floor.

It’s tempting to ride Embiid and pick Philly for the upset, but I think this series ends up underscoring that the Sixers need to get him and Maxey more help this summer. Pick: Knicks in six

Joel Embiid has only played a few games since returning from a meniscus injury. (Bill Streicher / USA Today)

No. 3 Milwaukee Bucks vs. No. 6 Indiana Pacers

You could tell me literally anything about how this series ends and it wouldn’t surprise me.

Immediately, it sets off my danger radar because Indiana beat the Bucks four times in the regular season, including the In-Season Tournament semifinal in Las Vegas, which is one of the conditions to look for when scouting potential first-round upsets. Additionally, Antetokounmpo is likely to miss some time at the start of the series. (While we’re here: Game 3 is at 5:30 p.m. Eastern on a Friday. What the hell, NBA?)

My numbers say the advantage tilts toward Indy in the non-Giannis games, exposing the rot in the Bucks’ second unit due to age and cap constraints. If the Pacers can keep pushing tempo, they can make their superior depth a factor as the series wears on.

However, note that all five meetings happened before the Bucks changed coaches; as our Seth Partnow and Kelly Iko noted, Milwaukee’s transition defense improved under Doc Rivers after the Pacers ran the Bucks off the floor in their early season wins over them.

Two things hold me back from picking the Indy upset. First, Haliburton still doesn’t quite seem all the way back to being the player he was in December. Second, the trade of Buddy Hield left an open sore at shooting guard, one the Pacers can only sort of fill with the T.J. McConnell Experience because of how he overlaps with Haliburton. If Giannis comes back and plays at some point, I think the Bucks hang on. Pick: Bucks in seven

No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. No. 5 Orlando Magic

This is another series in which the health of a star is a major factor, as Mitchell’s sore knee looms over this one. He wasn’t himself for most of the second half of the season but did come back and score 29 and 33 points in two games last week.

It’s a high-pressure series for the Cavs, given the questions hanging over Mitchell’s future and the roster in general. Cleveland leaned into a 3-point-heavy style built around Mitchell and floor spacers during Evan Mobley’s absence but flamed out late, going 12-17 after the All-Star break while dealing with Mitchell’s injury and trying to reintegrate Mobley.

Nonetheless, tanking their final game against Charlotte handed them the benefit of a first-round series against Orlando. The Magic are tough, physical and live in the paint, but that’s probably a thing the Cavs can handle given that they have two elite rim protectors in Mobley and Jarrett Allen. Orlando desperately needs some perimeter players to make shots and open up the paint; we’re looking at you, Jalen Suggs and Gary Harris.

Also: Don’t expect a lot of scoring. Mitchell will have his hands full with Suggs’ defense, while Paolo Banchero has to deal with the Cavs’ Mobley. Orlando will be searching for floor spacing all series; the Cavs likely will be, too, depending on who plays. Which coach goes for offense guys first?

Historically, these series go to the No. 5 seed about half the time, so on paper, Orlando has a chance. The teams tied the season series 2-2, but the last meeting was in February. This feels like one where the Cavs maybe don’t always look great but do enough to survive and advance. Pick: Cavs in six

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West semifinals

No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. No. 5 Dallas Mavericks

Consider this the first installment in what could be a tremendous Red River rivalry over the next few years.

This is new territory for the Thunder’s youngsters, but that doesn’t mean they can’t hang at this level. Oklahoma City’s guard-heavy style translates well to the postseason, and look at how well the Thunder played with their best players on the court: Units with Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren smoked opponents by 11.6 points per 100 possessions, a number that improved to 12.0 in units with those two and Jalen Williams. That’s even better than how Dallas fared in Dončić-Irving pairings.

Oklahoma City won two of the three regular-season meetings, but the last one was a gimme in which the Mavs sat all their players and the Thunder won by 49. Of more import, perhaps, is a game on Feb. 2 when the Mavs smoked them 146-111. That also was the only game Dončić played against Oklahoma City this season. Because of that, there’s a temptation to roll with Dallas, but a few things tilt me back to the Thunder.

First of all, Gilgeous-Alexander is Dončić’s equal as a scorer and shot creator, if not as a passer, and I’m not sure Dallas has anyone who can slow him down defensively. Along the same vein, Oklahoma City’s small lineups could run Dallas’ bigs off the floor and force the Mavs to dip even further into their bag of not-so-great forwards and wings. Tactically, Mark Daigneault has shown he has a lot more tricks in his bag than Jason Kidd, and that could also matter in a long, close series.

All of these tie into a bigger question: How, exactly, are the Mavs getting stops in this series? I’m not sure they are. Even when Gilgeous-Alexander is off the court or double-teamed, look at his supporting cast. The Thunder don’t have Irving, but they do have Holmgren, Williams and three or four random guys they can bring in and get a double-figure scoring lift from (Isaiah Joe, Cason Wallace, Aaron Wiggins, maybe even Gordon Hayward) without compromising themselves on defense. They may need at least one of them if Josh Giddey gets schemed off the court.

Finally, we can’t forecast injuries, but we can say the Thunder’s depth makes them more resilient to any non-SGA injury than the Mavs would be. Add it all up and I’ll pick the Thunder for another round. Pick: Thunder in seven

No. 2 Denver Nuggets vs. No. 6 Phoenix Suns

In a repeat of the second-round series from a year ago, I’m not sure this one goes any better for the Suns.

Last year, the Suns evened the series 2-2 behind a scorching hot Booker before Denver’s defense took control over the final two games. This time around, Beal replaces Chris Paul and Jusuf Nurkić supplants Deandre Ayton, and the Suns have better answers off the pine than the assorted T.J. Warrens and Terence Rosses they turned to last spring. Phoenix also won two of the three regular-season meetings.

Nonetheless, I can’t see the movie ending differently for the Suns this time, not when Durant is a year older and the Nuggets’ starting five still dominates games to such a massive extent. Even the elite numbers put up by Phoenix’s best lineups are no match for what the Nuggets have done in Jokić-Jamal Murray minutes (a staggering plus-15.2) or in several similar combinations with different starters; the starting group as a whole is plus-13.6 per 100.

A year ago, it felt like the Suns were overmatched once Booker’s scorching hot hand cooled off a little; this time around, the vibes feel similar. Phoenix can shoot its way to a couple wins, most likely, but not four times out of seven. Pick: Nuggets in six

Devin Booker, Bradley Beal and the Suns love to live in the midrange. Is that a winning strategy against Denver? (Joe Camporeale / USA Today)

East semifinals

No. 1 Boston Celtics vs. No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers

Cleveland’s best game of the second half of the season came March 5, when the Cavs rallied from a 22-point fourth-quarter deficit with nine minutes left to defeat Boston 105-104 without Mitchell. However, they lost their other two meetings against Boston and, on paper, don’t seem to have the horses to hang with the Celtics. With Derrick White and Jrue Holiday, Boston can throw multiple elite perimeter defenders at Mitchell too. (Yeah, this bracket isn’t doing poor Donovan any favors.)

The Cavs might not have enough spacing against Boston unless they can play smaller, but they lost one of their best alternate options to an Allen-Mobley frontcourt with Dean Wade’s knee sprain. Wade, a stretch four who torched Boston in that comeback win, missed the final 19 regular-season games. It’s not clear when he’ll be back.

This one feels like another fairly comfortable series for Boston. With a full-bore Mitchell, the Cavs have enough talent to take a game or two, but in a best-of-seven series, Boston’s superior perimeter size, backcourt defense and shooting should win the day. Pick: Celtics in five

No. 2 New York Knicks vs. No. 3 Milwaukee Bucks

This shapes up as a good series on paper; I’m not sure it will play out that way in reality.

The Bucks did win three of the five games between the teams in the regular season, but four of those happened before New Year’s Day. New York won the most recent meeting, with intact rosters on both sides.

The Bucks also don’t seem well-equipped to handle Brunson’s slippery pick-and-roll game, with Holiday gone and Damian Lillard in his place. They’ll try Patrick Beverley, surely, but he also tends to rack up fouls.

On the flip side, the addition of Anunoby gives the Knicks a go-to defender to use on Antetokounmpo, and they still have a couple of secondary options (Hartenstein, Precious Achiuwa) in reserve. One other factor to watch: The Knicks wrecked people on the offensive glass, leading the league in offensive rebound rate, but the Bucks were very good on the defensive boards, finishing fifth.

Bigger picture, this is a call on what the Knicks built during the second half of the season, a whole-greater-than-the-sum unit that stampeded the league when intact. The Bucks have the best player in Antetokounmpo, and the Knicks’ lack of perimeter size is a bit worrisome, but I still like New York. Pick: Knicks in six

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West finals

No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. No. 2 Denver Nuggets

The Thunder and Nuggets played three times this season, with the Nuggets completing outclassing them in the first meeting, the Thunder doing the same in the last and the middle game going down to the wire before Gilgeous-Alexander made a shot in the final seconds to give the Thunder a one-point win.

Sounds like a good formula for a great series, right? This wasn’t a case of the Thunder’s subs beating up on Denver’s subs, either. Jokić was a minus-7 over the three games, while Gilgeous-Alexander was a plus-2. That’s important because the starters are likely to play a much bigger chunk of the game in the playoffs than in the regular season, and Denver’s starters are awesome.

How awesome? Every Denver four-man combo with at least four of the starters had a double-figure per 100 scoring margin. The Nuggets were dramatically worse when they had to play multiple bench players at the same time, with virtually every two-man combo featuring two bench players having a negative margin, but that figures to happen much less in the playoffs.

The Thunder, meanwhile, had more distributed excellence; a lot of their second-unit groups were highly productive, especially ones with Joe in them. However, those groups tend to play a lot less in the playoffs, and if they are used more, they’re going against starters instead of backups.

This could be a classic between the likely top-two finishers in MVP voting; it also may be the first series in which the Thunder’s lack of playoff experience comes to bear. Between that and the Jokić cheat code, I still like the Nuggets to prevail in a tough series. Pick: Nuggets in six

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East finals

No. 1 Boston Celtics vs. No. 2 New York Knicks

A Boston-New York conference finals will definitely break the league record for eff-youz between fans. Could it be competitive on the court too? I’m less sure of that.

New York won the final meeting between the teams after Boston had already clinched the East’s top seed, but the Celtics won the first four times they played, and three of them were by double figures.

Two things stand out here. First, the Celtics can throw both White and Holiday at Brunson, forcing him to earn his points against two of the best guard defenders in basketball. Second, New York’s smallness on the wings could be more of a factor when the Knicks are trying to check Tatum and Brown; Anunoby can handle one of them, but they’re asking a 6-4 guy to take the other.

You can see other angles that might not favor New York either; Boston can bring better players off its bench, and if any injury attrition happens, that also favors the Celtics. It’s been a heck of a year for New York, but this is where I get off the bandwagon. Pick: Celtics in six

Jamal Murray drives against Jayson Tatum in Boston earlier this season. (David Butler II / USA Today)

NBA Finals

No. 1. Boston Celtics vs. No. 2 Denver Nuggets

You might have guessed my prediction from the intro. I had Boston over Phoenix before the season started, but the Suns haven’t quite looked strong enough, so I’ve pivoted.

The Nuggets have proven themselves in these situations, and their starting groups are lethal. But Boston’s excellence extends throughout the rotation, and the Celtics will have a massive advantage any time bench units are involved. Yes, that figures to happen less in an NBA Finals series than in a regular-season pairing, but those minutes still count.

Denver did win two close games against Boston in the regular season, and both were legit, asterisk-free matchups in which each team played its starters. Oddly, both teams shot horribly from 3, a trend that would favor the Nuggets if it held up in the Finals simply because they shoot so few of them.

In the end, you wonder if 3s will mater in a different way, in that math might be Boston’s difference-maker: The Celtics took 3s on a league-leading 47.1 percent of their field goal attempts, while the Nuggets were last at 35.2 percent.

Regardless, this shapes up as an awesome, get-your-popcorn series, featuring the league’s best player and defending champion against its most dominant regular-season team.

I know the Tatum-era Celtics have struggled in some of these moments before, but they’ve been the best team all year by a wide margin. This time, I think they finally get over the hump. Pick: Celtics in seven

(Top photo of Nikola Jokić and Kristaps Porzingis: Winslow Townson / Getty Images)

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Culture

Post-NFL Draft Power Rankings: Bears rise, Falcons slide and Chiefs still reign

Published

20 hours ago

May 2, 2024

Press Room

Post-NFL Draft Power Rankings: Bears rise, Falcons slide and Chiefs still reign

The NFL Draft is complete, which means the country’s most dominant sports league will now take a short break from dominating television ratings and the athletic world’s oxygen (no offense to Schedule Release Day or the social media teams that work so hard to make that fun). But before we get started on summer, the Power Rankings will assess where everyone stands after their rookie additions.

Post-free agency rank: 1

Dane Brugler’s draft ranking: 13

The Chiefs have managed to muddle through just fine in the two seasons since trading Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins. In fact, they’ve won two Super Bowls. Still, they seem to have decided a three-peat might be easier with another jet-pack wide receiver. That’s why they traded up for Texas wide receiver Xavier Worthy, who ran the fastest 40-yard dash in NFL combine history (4.21).

Post-free agency rank: 2

Brugler’s draft ranking: 25

Did the 49ers take Florida wide receiver Ricky Pearsall because they plan to trade Brandon Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel? Or did they did do it because coach Kyle Shanahan just wants another tough-as-nails wide receiver to terrorize defenses? We don’t know yet, but they did strengthen their defense with two defensive backs (Renardo Green and Malik Mustapha) who will help right away.

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Post-free agency rank: 3

Brugler’s draft ranking: 3

Detroit was 28th last season in defensive passing EPA so it used its first two picks on cornerbacks. Sensible enough. Then the Lions returned to their contrarian form by using their third pick (a fourth-rounder, which they acquired by trading away a 2025 third-rounder) on a Tongan offensive tackle from Canada (Giovanni Manu) whom Brugler projected as a priority free agent. That’s the wacky Brad Holmes-Dan Campbell Lions we’ve come to love here.

The Ravens know what they’re doing in the draft, and second-round pick Roger Rosengarten will fit right in. (Ken Murray / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Post-free agency rank: 6

Brugler’s draft ranking: 12

Baltimore did Baltimore things in the draft, stockpiling players at premium positions up and down the board. The beauty of the Ravens’ approach is they never seem to need immediate help. This is still the team that led the NFL in point margin last year (plus-203). Second-round offensive tackle Roger Rosengarten could end up being one of the steals of the draft.

Post-free agency rank: 4

Brugler’s draft ranking: 28

The Texans added a lot of players (nine) but nobody who is expected to move the needle much this season. Having no first-round pick this year is the price they paid for wheeling and dealing in last year’s draft. It’s a price they were happy to pay considering they got quarterback C.J. Stroud and edge Will Anderson Jr. in that draft, which is why they’re still high on this list.

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Post-free agency rank: 5

Brugler’s draft ranking: 21

While everyone’s draft focus was on the Falcons saying they were trying to turbocharge the Packers’ quarterback succession model, Green Bay might have quietly done it again. The Packers picked Tulane quarterback Michael Pratt in the seventh round. The 6-foot-3, 217-pound Pratt might have to wait a long time if he’s going to succeed Jordan Love, but he’s more than worth the gamble at pick No. 245 after starting 44 college games and throwing 90 career touchdowns.

Post-free agency rank: 9

Brugler’s draft ranking: 10

For 51 weeks of the year, it feels like the Cowboys are all over the map. Somebody, usually the owner, is saying quizzical things. Expectations are being elevated and then left unmet. And then comes draft week, and Cowboys just quietly go about doing a very good job. It’s why they get away with all the other stuff. Dallas got value with all three of its top picks, and second-round edge rusher Marshawn Kneeland could be a star. (Adding back Ezekiel Elliott in free agency doesn’t move the needle much at this point.)

Post-free agency rank: 7

Brugler’s draft ranking: 30

It’s tough to add much help when your first pick is at No. 54, but Cleveland was still paying bills from the Deshaun Watson trade. The good news is that trade is now officially complete, and the Browns will have a first-round draft pick in 2025 for the first time since 2021. Unless, of course, they make another deal.

Post-free agency rank: 8

Brugler’s draft ranking: 18

Let’s take a moment to visualize Cincinnati’s dream offensive line of the future. The Bengals used their first-round pick on 6-8, 340-pound Amarius Mims even though Mims made only eight college starts. Cincinnati already has 6-8, 345-pound Orlando Brown Jr. entrenched at left tackle and 6-8, 355-pound Trent Brown penciled in on the right side on a one-year contract. It’s possible Mims won’t start this season, but if he does, it will be fun to watch.

Wide receiver Keon Coleman is a key addition for Josh Allen and the Bills, who no longer have Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis. (Don Juan Moore / Getty Images)

Post-free agency rank: 10

Brugler’s draft ranking: 20

The draft was another reminder that the Bills are in a controlled rebuild. They traded all the way out of the first round to add more affordable assets to the roster. The good news is they still came away with a pretty good receiver with their first pick, taking Florida State’s Keon Coleman with the first choice of the second round. If Coleman can develop a quick connection with Josh Allen, it will go a long way toward stabilizing Buffalo’s reset.

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Post-free agency rank: 16

Brugler’s draft ranking: 4

After grabbing two of the top corners early in the draft, Philadelphia added some potential high-reward players in Round 3 and later. Edge rusher Jalyx Hunt out of Houston Christian (6-4, 252 pounds) is a perfect example. Hunt started his career as an Ivy League safety, but he had the fifth-longest arms of any edge rusher in this class and is an explosive athlete who could turn into a steal.

Post-free agency rank: 11

Brugler’s draft ranking: 24

Jared Verse must feel special. That’s whom Los Angeles picked with its first first-round pick since 2016 (which it spent on Jared Goff). Verse, and his former Florida State teammate Braden Fiske, a defensive tackle, will help a defense that finished 22nd last year in points allowed (22.2). Now if they can keep quarterback Matthew Stafford happy (he wants a contract adjustment with more guaranteed money, NFL Network reported during the draft), they’ll be a sleeper NFC title game candidate.

Post-free agency rank: 23

Brugler’s draft ranking: 1

No one moved up more in this edition of the Power Rankings than the Bears, who drafted uber-talented quarterback Caleb Williams with the No. 1 pick and elite wide receiver prospect Rome Odunze with the No. 9 pick. They made only five draft picks, but that’s not doing anything to slow down expectations in Chicago. The Bears have one division title in the last 13 years, but they’re expected to be true challengers to the Lions and Packers this year.

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Post-free agency rank: 14

Brugler’s draft ranking: 14

The Colts landed two of the draft’s most talented players with their first two picks, which is impressive considering those picks came at 15 and 52. They did have to take on some risk to do it, though. UCLA edge rusher Laiatu Latu medically retired from football at one point in his college career, and Texas wide receiver Adonai Mitchell raised some concerns about non-football issues in the scouting community. (Don’t tell GM Chris Ballard about that second part, though. He doesn’t want to hear it.)

Colts GM Chris Ballard was preachin’ about the pre-draft reports on AD Mitchell 🗣️pic.twitter.com/KqyJFwsLY8
— Jon Tweets Sports (@jontweetssports) April 27, 2024
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Post-free agency rank: 12

Brugler’s draft ranking: 22

Jason Licht might be the NFL’s poster boy for patience. Licht has been the Buccaneers’ general manager since 2014. In four of his first five seasons, Tampa Bay finished last in the NFC South. Now the Bucs have won the division three years in a row, and Licht seems to keep bringing in good players. This year, he got every analyst’s favorite under-the-radar offensive lineman, Duke’s Graham Barton.

Post-free agency rank: 13

Brugler’s draft ranking: 23

Mike McDaniel is committed to the bit. The head coach of the NFL’s fastest team traded up to take the second-fastest running back in this year’s draft in Round 4 (Tennessee’s Jaylen Wright) and then drafted a high school sprinting state champion — Virginia wide receiver Malik Washington — in the fifth round. Give him credit, too, for getting big guys in the first two rounds in edge Chop Robinson and offensive tackle Patrick Paul.

Post-free agency rank: 15

Brugler’s draft ranking: 17

The Jets drafted an Aaron Rodgers support staff, getting offensive tackle Olu Fashanu, wide receiver Malachi Corley and running back Braelon Allen with their first three picks. Fashanu might not start right away, but he has that kind of talent, and Corley should join Mike Williams and Garrett Wilson in the starting lineup immediately.

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Post-free agency rank: 22

Brugler’s draft ranking: 2

Whoever ends up playing quarterback for the Steelers (Russell Wilson and Justin Fields are the contenders, in case you hadn’t heard), he should have plenty of protection. Pittsburgh took three offensive linemen, including two of the feistiest in this draft (tackle Troy Fautanu and center Zach Frazier), with their first two picks.

Post-free agency rank: 18

Brugler’s draft ranking: 16

Seattle’s first two picks weigh a combined 614 pounds, so we know general manager John Schneider, in his first draft post-Pete Carroll, wanted to rebuild the Seahawks’ trenches. Defensive tackle Bryron Murphy II (6-foot, 297 pounds) might end up being the best defensive player in this draft, and guard Christian Haynes (6-3, 317) will provide immediate offensive line depth and a possible Day 1 starter.

If quarterback J.J. McCarthy is as good as the Vikings believe he is, they’ll be in great shape. (Rick Osentoski / USA Today)

Post-free agency rank: 19

Brugler’s draft ranking: 15

If J.J. McCarthy is as good as (or even close to as good as) Kirk Cousins, the Vikings will have had the best draft of the year. If he’s not the guy, then Minnesota will have let a solid veteran quarterback leave and then expended a lot of draft assets only to fail to answer the quarterback question. Getting Alabama edge Dallas Turner at No. 17 is a nice touch either way.

Post-free agency rank: 26

Brugler’s draft ranking: 6

Jim Harbaugh stuck to his guns. After saying for weeks leading up to the draft that his team placed a premium on offensive linemen, he passed on two elite wide receiver prospects (Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze) to take offensive tackle Joe Alt fifth. “Offensive linemen we look at as weapons,” Harbaugh said. “Offensive line is the tip of the spear.”

Post-free agency rank: 17

Brugler’s draft ranking: 32

The talk of the draft, but not for the right reasons, the Falcons passed on their best chance to make the 2024 team better by drafting quarterback Michael Penix Jr. with the No. 8 pick. It might turn out to be a genius move for the future, but it won’t help this year with Penix sitting behind Kirk Cousins. The five front-seven defenders they drafted after Penix might help, though.

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Post-free agency rank: 28

Brugler’s draft ranking: 9

The Commanders completed their extreme home makeover (the owner, general manager and head coach are all brand new) with their quarterback of the future. At least, that’s the hope. Former LSU quarterback and Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels was the most physically dynamic quarterback on the board, but he does not come without risk. Should be a fun season in Washington, which would be new, too.

Post-free agency rank: 29

Brugler’s draft ranking: 8

The Patriots had the good fortune to be picking third in a draft that had three highly regarded quarterback prospects. And they had the good sense to simply take North Carolina’s Drake Maye instead of trading the pick. New England signed Jacoby Brissett in free agency, so it can afford to give Maye plenty of time to get ready before throwing him into an offense that isn’t good enough to help him as a rookie.

Post-free agency rank: 21

Brugler’s draft ranking: 11

The Raiders were rumored to be in the quarterback trade market but stayed in their draft slot and took the best player available — Georgia tight end Brock Bowers. It was a very un-Vegas move. Then they compounded the common sense by taking offensive linemen with their next two picks.

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Post-free agency rank: 20

Brugler’s draft ranking: 29

The Jaguars like LSU players, and they don’t much care what everyone else thinks of their new players. Jacksonville started the draft by taking wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr., the first of three Tigers it drafted. The next eight players all ranked among some of the biggest reaches in the draft based on consensus mock draft rankings.

Wide receiver Malik Nabers should give Daniel Jones and the Giants offense an immediate boost. (John Korduner / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Post-free agency rank: 27

Brugler’s draft ranking: 7

The Giants passed on an opportunity to get out of the Daniel Jones business and really shake up the draft by taking a quarterback with the sixth pick. Instead, they went with dynamic wide receiver Malik Nabers in hopes he’ll help lift Jones to another level. If that doesn’t work, New York can exit Jones’ contract pretty easily after this year. It did bring in Drew Lock as a veteran contingency plan.

Post-free agency rank: 24

Brugler’s draft ranking: 26

The Titans got bigger in the draft. A lot bigger, using their first pick on 342-pound offensive tackle JC Latham and their second pick on 366-pound defensive tackle T’Vondre Sweat. The Sweat pick in the second round (No. 38) raised eyebrows because he wasn’t expected to go nearly that high, but if he matures and can keep his weight in check, he could be a superstar. Latham is expected to be a Day 1 starter.

Post-free agency rank: 31

Brugler’s draft ranking: 5

This was the draft Arizona had been waiting for. The Cardinals had seven of the first 90 picks. Teams generally hope to get at least starting-quality players out of that type of draft capital. If Arizona did that, its turnaround could begin now.

Post-free agency rank: 30

Brugler’s draft ranking: 19

The Saints might have stumbled into their next starting quarterback … or into a quarterback controversy. New Orleans drafted South Carolina’s Spencer Rattler with the 150th pick. Given current starter Derek Carr’s sometimes shaky hold on the job and Rattler’s NFL arm, Saints fans might be calling for a change by midseason.

Post-free agency rank: 25

Brugler’s draft ranking: 31

The Falcons’ quarterback selection kept Denver off the national hot seat. The Broncos took Oregon quarterback Bo Nix at No. 12, which was 32 spots higher than The Athletic’s Dane Brugler had him ranked. If it works, Sean Payton can turn Denver around quickly. If it doesn’t, it’ll be another in a series of very curious Broncos moves.

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Post-free agency rank: 32

Brugler’s draft ranking: 27

Owner David Tepper stole the show again. And, again, not in a good way. Tepper turned the draft weekend narrative on himself when he stopped at a local bar to question the owner about a snarky sign out front. There’s a reason Carolina has occupied this spot in the rankings for so long.

(Top photo of Caleb Williams: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)

Culture

A 19-year-old Stanford phenom is blazing a new trail from Japan to the majors

Published

1 day ago

May 2, 2024

Press Room

A 19-year-old Stanford phenom is blazing a new trail from Japan to the majors

STANFORD, Calif. — The dugout chatter for intrasquad games at the Sunken Diamond can be merciless.

The slings and arrows are nonstop when Stanford baseball players are pitted against one another. The guys wearing red jerseys shout streams of insults at players on the black team and vice versa. “Whoa, hey, Luke’s got a new stance,” a player wearing a black jersey yells as freshman catcher Luke Lavin stands upright in the batter’s box, perhaps imitating the Chicago Cubs’ Cody Bellinger.

Lavin pops up the next pitch. “Same swing, though!”

But the tone changes when No. 3 for the black team, a husky teenager and early enrollee who won’t begin his freshman season until next year, steps in the box. The good-natured ribbing gives way to full-throated encouragement from both sides. Let’s go Rintaro! C’mon Rintaro! Give it a ride, Rintaro!

“We still can’t believe he’s here,” infielder Jimmy Nati said. “We’re all fanboying him, for sure.”

Rintaro Sasaki is not the typical Stanford baseball recruit. Back home in Japan, he is a national celebrity, instantly recognizable almost anywhere he goes. Last year, Sasaki was the top-rated high school player in a country where high school baseball is a national obsession. The left-handed slugger was projected to be the most coveted name in last October’s Nippon Professional Baseball draft. He mashed a national record 140 home runs, with twice as many walks as strikeouts, for Hanamaki-Higashi High School in Iwate Prefecture, the same school that produced Los Angeles Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani and Toronto Blue Jays left-hander Yusei Kikuchi. Sasaki’s father, Hiroshi, coached all of them and is a legendary figure in his own right.

When Rintaro graduated from high school this past March, television stations dispatched more than 30 camera crews to cover the event.

It would be a last glimpse. Sasaki announced a few weeks prior to the NPB draft that he would not register for it. Instead, he would blaze a trail and play collegiate ball in the United States — a nearly unprecedented path that could fast-track him to Major League Baseball as a draft-eligible sophomore in 2026.

In February, Sasaki stunned Stanford coach David Esquer and recruiting coordinator Thomas Eager when he requested a Zoom call with them, asked a few logistical questions, then told them that he was selecting the Cardinal over Cal, UCLA, and Vanderbilt.

Sasaki arrived on campus at the beginning of April, moved into a dorm room and enrolled in three classes as a pre-freshman. He can participate in all team activities except playing in games. He practices and works out with his new teammates. On game days, he suits up, cheers them on from the dugout and eagerly takes part in all the pregame traditions. He’s gone on road trips to Utah and Oregon State. He’s surprised everyone with how much English he understands, and he’s left them slack-jawed with his batting-practice shots over the light standards. When he turned 19 on April 18, his teammates took him out to a dinner that included ice cream, candles and tables of complete strangers joining in to sing “Happy Birthday.”

He is absolutely loving all of it.

“I made the right choice,” Sasaki said through interpreter and team trainer Tomoo Yamada. “People are nice to me. Everyone is my friend. I haven’t missed Japan yet. I feel completely settled. I can’t believe it’s been only four weeks. I’m enjoying life.”

Sasaki was a national star in high school, but his first month in California has largely been filled with normal college experiences. (Courtesy of Stanford Athletics)

Beyond the right field fence at Klein Field, past the scoreboard and a stand of trees, is the Avery Aquatic Center. It’s where Olympic swimmer Katie Ledecky would lap the competition during her brief time as a Stanford student. As best as anyone can tell, that’s where a couple of Sasaki’s tape-measure home runs have splashed down.

Everything about Sasaki is broad and powerful, a body rendered in letterbox format. He stands 6 feet and 250 pounds, and his full-tilt swing puts every ounce behind the baseball. He hits line drives to left field that dismiss gravity as they streak over the fence. His pull power is pure astonishment. The ear-splitting sound off his aluminum bat exceeds OSHA safety standards.

“He looks like Barry Bonds,” Nati said. “That’s how good he’s going to be. When he runs into balls, he hits them over the light tower. It’s crazy.

“The ball comes off different. You can close your eyes, hear the sound and know it’s him.”

In a simulated game at Stanford last Wednesday, Sasaki lined a single off the fence and crushed two homers. According to Trackman, the second homer traveled 422 feet, with an exit velocity of 111 mph.

“Hey Rintaro,” Esquer called out. “You’ll need to get that one out of the swimming pool.”

“Swimming pool?” Sasaki replied, then nodded and laughed. He knew what the words meant. He just needed a second to process them.

Here’s another word to add to his growing vocabulary: Trailblazer.

“Ah, pioneer?” Sasaki said in English. “Yes, I know it.”

If Sasaki had been drafted by an NPB team, he would have been under club control for nine years. Although Japanese pro teams often gain a windfall in posting fees by making their players available to MLB before their nine years are up, there are no guarantees. Sasaki might have been pushing 30 by the time he had an opportunity to play in the U.S.

He made it clear: His goal is to play in the major leagues.

“Ohtani and Kikuchi are already overseas,” Sasaki said. “I always thought one day, hopefully I can get there. They were big influences for me. Ohtani said, ‘Follow your instinct. That is what you decided. That is a path you need to keep walking.’”

Sasaki’s path — to become MLB draft-eligible by attending an American university — has almost no precedent. Rikuu Nishida, a speedy infielder from Sendai, was an 11th-round pick of the Chicago White Sox last year after a standout season at the University of Oregon. But Nishida, who played two seasons at a junior college upon arriving in the U.S., was not an NPB draft prospect in Japan.

Although there are no written rules that would prohibit an MLB team from signing a Japanese high school player out of its international signing pool, there’s been an unofficial understanding among teams against the practice. (Until 2020, when it rescinded its rule, NPB enforced a ban of two to three years on Japanese players who opted out of the draft and signed with a foreign league.)

Ohtani came close to setting a groundbreaking precedent as a high school phenom in 2012, when he advised NBP teams against drafting him, saying that he intended to sign with an MLB franchise. The Nippon Ham Fighters took him anyway, then persuaded him to sign by promising to let him develop as a two-way player.

NPB teams had no such hope of signing Sasaki, who ensured that he would be taken off the NPB draft board by attending an American university. Now he will have two seasons to improve his conditioning and address weaknesses in his game before turning pro.

The chance to develop in less of a fishbowl environment was appealing to Sasaki and his father, as well.

“In Japan, people tend to focus more on shortcomings. But in the U.S., they develop individuality,” Hiroshi Sasaki told CNN in March. “I think this is a very good choice for him.”

It is a choice that involves financial risk and delayed gratification. As a first-round pick in NPB, Sasaki likely would have received a signing bonus and incentives worth more than $1 million, plus personal services contracts that could have earned him hundreds of thousands more. At Stanford, of course, he is merely a student-athlete on scholarship. He also cannot participate in NIL opportunities while on U.S. soil because he is an international player on a student visa.

He would earn a multimillion bonus if he is a first-round pick in 2026, but that is far from assured. Because he is limited to first base and his defensive skills are unpolished, his bat must be compelling. And although he faced top high school competition in Japan, advancing to the Best Eight at the famed Koshien tournament last year, he mostly hit against pitchers who threw in the upper 80s.

He is betting on himself. And on Stanford to help him develop his gifts.

“I had the confidence to come to the States,” Sasaki said. “Right now I want to settle in here, take classes and do well. Take one step at a time. And two years from today, we’ll see where I am at. Getting to the major leagues is not everything for my life. Of course I want to get drafted and get to the major leagues. But I want to keep studying and also be a good person.”

Does that make him a pioneer? He shrugged. That’s for others to decide.

“He’s showing a lot of courage to come here spring quarter, practice on a daily basis with a college team and look so comfortable,” Esquer said. “He wants to get an education and maybe become an entrepreneur, but he’s also told us that he wants to leave a mark and blaze a trail for Japanese players to come here and play college baseball. Eighteen-year-old kids don’t normally think that way.

“He grew up with Ohtani. He’s seen the standard of what it takes to be great.”

If Sasaki becomes a top MLB draft prospect two years from now, he’s likely to be regarded as the baseball player who upended an entire system — something that even Ohtani could not accomplish.

Ohtani, asked about his influence on Sasaki’s decision, said he merely offered support and encouragement.

“I didn’t really offer any advice or anything like that,” Ohtani said through Dodgers interpreter Will Ireton. “Making the best decision usually comes from being convicted. I’ve made decisions like that in the past as well. I feel like that’s the decision he made from his conviction.”

Sasaki (right) has known Ohtani since he was young, and has turned to the megastar for advice over the years. (Courtesy of the Sasaki family)

Esquer and his coaches still have trouble believing Sasaki is here.

Stanford was a late entrant when the recruitment process began last year. Sasaki took unofficial visits to Vanderbilt, Duke, UCLA and Cal — he also attended a Giants game at Oracle Park — but did not go to Palo Alto. At the time, there wasn’t a spot for him at Stanford, which allows a strict number of admissions per sport. Then two Cardinal players entered the transfer portal and a few others de-committed.

Suddenly, Stanford had a spot — and plenty of interest.

“We were playing catch-up, to be honest with you,” said Eager, who is the team’s pitching coach as well as recruiting coordinator. “In the Japanese culture, because we weren’t involved in the first go-around, we didn’t know if they would take it as a sign of disrespect. We hoped to explain that this is just how it operates here. We liked him all along. And we had a good official visit in January. But I tell you what, I did not think we were getting him.”

The official visit included meet-and-greets with three Stanford alums who are major leaguers: Chicago Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner, Kansas City Royals pitcher Kris Bubic and San Francisco Giants pitcher Tristan Beck. Hoerner drew on his experience playing with Japanese outfielder Seiya Suzuki in Chicago while encouraging Sasaki to make sure he could continue the routines that are important to him.

“You can do your best to put yourself in someone’s shoes, but it is a totally different experience what he’s going to be doing,” Hoerner said. “The adjustment to college, even for myself, driving 45 minutes from where I grew up, was really different. Doing that with a language barrier, taking classes, and the whole schedule is a lot.

“In pro ball, you’re in charge of your own career at the end of the day. But a lot of times in college, you’re pretty much subject to whatever the program believes in. So I just felt it was really important to stress that whatever it is that makes him tick as a player, he’d be able to continue to do that. Because not all college programs would really be (OK) with that. And I did feel like Stanford, with the staff that they have, are there for whatever the players need.”

Esquer knew what was at stake, even beyond adding a potential impact hitter. If Sasaki chose Stanford, it would enhance the university’s already prestigious international brand. And if Sasaki became the first arrival that breaks a dam, perhaps the pipeline of talent from Japan would lead directly to the Sunken Diamond.

Sasaki’s visit was thorough but not ostentatious. The team hired a taco truck to cater a post-practice party. Several players remarked that they saw Esquer wearing a suit for the first time. Mostly, Esquer hoped to convey that Sasaki would have every resource to develop as a player and person.

“My promise to you is that we’re going to take care of your son,” Esquer told Hiroshi Sasaki. “We’re going to coach him and help him get better, but also we’re going to make sure he’s well looked after.”

Beck laughed when he recalled his recruiting visit more than a decade ago. No taco trucks, no meetings with trustees, no coaches in suits. But he remembered one thing someone told him that might have resonated with an international celebrity like Sasaki.

“One of the adages I heard before I enrolled was, ‘Don’t worry about being bothered, because the most famous people here don’t play sports at all,’” Beck said. “The most interesting people here aren’t even athletes, even with people like Andrew Luck walking around campus.

“He did mention his favorite team was the Giants, which is sweet. I made sure he said that a couple more times so Nico and Kris were sure to hear it.”

Sasaki was projected to be a top pick in the NBP draft after hitting a national record 140 home runs in high school. (Courtesy of Stanford Athletics)

You might assume that Sasaki wants to become the next Ohtani. But there’s another home run hitter that he has spent his life emulating.

“I don’t know how far I can go, but I respect Barry Bonds a lot,” Sasaki said. “(To) one day get to be as close as possible to Barry Bonds — that is my goal.”

Bonds, and not Shohei?

“Ever since I was in elementary school, I was watching Barry Bonds,” Sasaki said. “Ohtani was one of my mentors. Sometimes I communicate with him and get advice. But Barry Bonds was my ultimate goal since I was little. Don’t misunderstand. I respect Shohei and Barry Bonds both.

“When Bonds got in the batter’s box, people expected to see something big or something special. I want to be like that.”

Rintaro Sasaki, my goodness.
Wish we could’ve seen this swing in NPB but I’m confident he’s going to blossom into a superstar. pic.twitter.com/ifkODlbc2g
— Yakyu Cosmopolitan (@yakyucosmo) April 30, 2024

For now, Sasaki just wants to be a good teammate and fit in. He is taking a language skills class with other international students, but his other two courses, including an introductory class in human biology, are in English. He understands more than he can speak, but baseball tends to operate with its own universal language. When Yamada, the trainer, returned to Japan for a week, Sasaki appeared to manage just fine. If Sasaki gets stuck on a word, bullpen catcher Michael Fung, who is minoring in East Asian Studies and spent time last year studying in Stanford’s overseas program in Kyoto, is usually able to help bridge any language gap.

Sasaki declined Esquer’s offer of a full-time interpreter, saying he would chip away at the language barrier faster with the help of his teammates.

“It fired us up to hear that,” said Lavin, who has become one of Sasaki’s more steady companions. “Because it seems he’s really bought into the team’s culture and being around us. He’s a normal teammate here. You can’t tell from talking to him that he’s super famous. He has not brought it up once, how many people know his name.”

Still, Sasaki is likely to draw crowds very soon. The word is just beginning to trickle out that he is on campus. At a recent game at Santa Clara University, two dozen Japanese baseball fans waited outside the ballpark so they could meet Sasaki and take pictures with him. Stanford officials are gearing up for more attention, more media and more fans.

For now, his competition is limited to those spirited intrasquad games. A couple of his teammates already feel comfortable enough to engage in a bit of sarcastic banter. And they’ve learned that Sasaki is already comfortable enough to dish it right back.

“We were at Oregon State and I’m watching him flick home runs the other way,” Lavin said. “So I said to him, ‘Ah, it’s just the wind.’ Then the wind died down and he started hitting pull-side homers over the stands.

“And he looked at me and said, ‘It’s not the wind.’”

The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya and Patrick Mooney contributed to this story.

(Top image: Sean Reilly / The Athletic; Photos: Courtesy of Stanford Athletics)

Culture

Vinicius Jr is Real Madrid's transformative big-stage player – with a twist

Published

1 day ago

May 2, 2024

Press Room

Vinicius Jr is Real Madrid's transformative big-stage player – with a twist

At the end of Tuesday night’s dizzying 2-2 draw at Bayern Munich, Real Madrid’s press officer moved quickly to find Vinicius Junior on the pitch and give him a training top.

With the Brazilian half-naked after exchanging shirts with Bayern substitute Bryan Zaragoza, it was as if the visitors didn’t want him to catch a cold. That’s because Madrid can’t afford anything like a scare with their star player, who had just pulled his team out of the fire with their two goals in this Champions League semi-final’s first leg.

He did it playing as a No 9 and on a night when the 14-time European Cup/Champions League winners were facing Harry Kane, the striker their coach Carlo Ancelotti had asked for in vain last summer.

Madrid’s interest did not go beyond testing the waters for Kane and the England captain ended up joining Bayern from Tottenham Hotspur. Ancelotti’s squad instead welcomed a then 33-year-old Joselu on loan, who had just been relegated with Espanyol. In an injury-hit season that has also left him short of centre-backs as well as strikers, the Italian coach has become an expert in survival.

In the first part of it, he invented a new position for Jude Bellingham, another summer arrival, who scored 17 goals in 21 appearances before the Christmas break. In the second half, he has helped Vinicius Jr reach new levels while gradually centring his position, even converting him into a leader of Madrid’s forward line.

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Vinicius Jr’s first goal last night was the work of a pure striker, a clever run to make space in behind, a clinical cool finish beyond the approaching Manuel Neuer. The Brazilian ran to the corner flag in celebration, kissed the Madrid badge on his shirt, danced and spread his arms like Bellingham does after he scores, before walking back onto the pitch.

Vinicius Jr bowing to Kroos after the opening goal (Kirill Kudryavtsev/AFP via Getty Images)

There, he bowed to Toni Kroos, around whom more than half their team-mates had already gathered. Playing at his former home ground, Kroos’ through ball for the goal was a thing of beauty. Even though he played it down afterwards.

“A lot of credit to Vini, he offered me the pass with his movement. As I know him, he always goes into space. The pass wasn’t that special,” Kroos said.

“We train a lot together and we know each other very well,” said Vinicius Jr, who became only the fourth man in Champions League history to score in three straight semi-final legs.

But Madrid had started the game badly, very badly. And Ancelotti had been very, very angry.

In the 10th minute, he turned and stuck out four fingers at his son and assistant coach Davide, complaining about the number of times their players had lost possession already. Substitutes Eder Militao and Dani Ceballos stood up from the bench to add to the direction and encouragement shouted towards the field of play.

That mood changed suddenly when, about 15 minutes later, Kroos and Vinicius Jr combined with their devastatingly simple move for the opening goal. Kroos received the ball in midfield and immediately spotted what should happen next, pointing the way for his team-mate. Vinicius Jr saw what he meant and executed. It was out of the blue. Bayern were caught out, although their head coach Thomas Tuchel had almost predicted it.

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“If you look at their goals or their chances and rewind 10 seconds, you don’t see them coming,” Tuchel has said before the game.

In the second half, Bayern came back strongly. Leroy Sane’s powerful strike caused havoc. On the sidelines, Ancelotti scolded Vinicius Jr and Aurelien Tchouameni. Four minutes later, while Kane prepared to take the penalty that put the home side 2-1 up and international team-mate Bellingham tried to put him off, Vinicius Jr had another quick meeting with the Ancelottis.

And, as he has done so many times before, the Brazilian led the rebellion on the big stage.

Madrid did not give up, they never do. Their fans, who approached the game like it was a final, with 4,000 in the away stand at the Allianz Arena, chanted “Hasta el final, vamos Real!” (“Until the end, let’s go Real!”).

In the 83rd minute, when Vinicius Jr’s smart feet found Rodrygo in the box, there was no doubt who would take the penalty after the latter was fouled. Vinicius Jr had scored from the spot against Barcelona in El Clasico nine days previously and he would take the responsibility again. Lucas Vazquez retrieved the ball and pushed away a couple of Bayern players who were trying to bother his team-mate.

Vinicius Jr set it down carefully and wiped the sweat from his face with his shirt. The noise was almost deafening.

But Madrid’s Brazilian talisman slipped softly through the pressure. He scored again and again went to the corner to celebrate. Objects thrown from the stands landed around him as he crowned the moment by pointing to the No 7 on his back — the same as was worn for so long at Madrid by his idol Cristiano Ronaldo.

In sending that penalty past Neuer, he reached 32 goal contributions (21 goals and 11 assists) for Madrid this season, nudging ahead of Bellingham by one.

🤳 @ViniJr 🤳#UCL pic.twitter.com/RIBxnYbZWg
— Real Madrid C.F. (@realmadrid) April 30, 2024

According to data provider Opta, since the start of the 2021-22 season, he has been directly involved in more goals in the Champions League than any other player (31 in total; 16 goals and 15 assists).

This is Vinicius Jr, a total player who has evolved so much that he could also be the striker Ancelotti wanted last summer.

“I’m very happy to be able to score two goals,” he said from the touchline after the game, having been named player of the match. “Now it’s time for a magical night at home.”

It all summed up the merit of Ancelotti, his staff and Vinicius Jr — having an idea to fill a gap and developing it well to the point where a left-winger can be the best player in a Champions League semi-final away leg while playing up front.

“Now he has learned to move well without the ball, moving at the back of the rivals,” Ancelotti said. “And then he’s very cold in front of goal.”

(Top photo: Daniel Kopatsch/Getty Images)