BALTIMORE — The backslapping of goodbyes in the Baltimore Orioles clubhouse was deafening, the official obituary for a team that has been playing dead for months.

This much is clear: The honeymoon is over.

Last year, when this group was swept out of the American League Division Series by the eventual champion Texas Rangers, the reasons seemed valid. They were young, inexperienced. They had simply run out of gas in October. There was dejection, but it was hard to be too upset at a team that had stunned the sport by winning 101 games and the AL East. Over and over, those around the team offered variations of the same phrase: It was just the beginning of a long window for this young core.

The window is here. And if the organization, everyone from general manager Mike Elias on down, doesn’t learn from its mistakes, it could slam shut sooner than anyone thought.

A new ownership group, led by David Rubenstein, will take a close look at the business in its first full offseason, and the list of upgrades and to-dos is long. This front office would be wise to do its own autopsy, after a listless 2-1 loss to the Kansas City Royals that should send shock waves through every corner of Camden Yards.

“It all came crashing down on us sooner than anyone expected it to,” catcher James McCann said of an Orioles team with World Series expectations that was 20 games over .500 in the first half of the season.

This isn’t just about Jordan Westburg’s injury, though when Westburg fractured his hand, the Orioles’ offense took a nosedive in August and September. Nor is it about the alarming play of catcher Adley Rutschman, who is either hurt or just went the better part of four months as a below-average offensive player.

And it isn’t just about playing things too safe at the trade deadline, though you could certainly start there. The Orioles were a .500 team in the second half of the season, and were it not for the acquisition of Wednesday’s starter, Zach Eflin, the deadline could be chalked up as a total failure. It is the second successive season Elias and his group opted not to make a big splash but to instead hold on to most of their top prospects and carefully cultivated farm system.

Maybe bigger moves weren’t out there, but there were other paths to upgrade. One, closer Lucas Erceg, stared them in the face as he finished the job for the Royals in both wild-card games. Two more, the San Diego Padres’ Tanner Scott and Jason Adam, were significant enough bullpen upgrades that it makes you wonder: How many games could they have changed for the Orioles? Being bold can invigorate a clubhouse. Being safe, for the second season in a row, can be deflating. “It’s better than nothing,” a member of last year’s team texted me after the team acquired Jack Flaherty and Shintaro Fujinami, both busts, last July. Was it, though?

Optics matter. Clubhouse dynamics matter. Experience matters. Especially in the postseason.

Kansas City, a small-market team, infused its club with four new players at the deadline and added another trio in August on waivers. It prioritized veterans, knowing postseason experience was important. Who in the Orioles lineup has the experience and cache to call a pregame meeting to light a fire, or keep things loose in the dugout? Veterans matter, even when they don’t show up in the numbers.

Of course, the Orioles could have added Scott, Adam, Erceg and vintage Mariano Rivera at the deadline and it still wouldn’t have helped much against Kansas City. The O’s lineup looked flummoxed and miserable the past two days, flailing at pitches outside the zone, desperate to hit a three-run homer with no one on base. In perhaps the lasting image of this series, Colton Cowser struck out swinging at a ball that hit him in the fifth inning with the bases loaded. Had he kept his bat on his shoulders, the Orioles would have taken the lead.

The O’s scored one run the entire series, running the organization’s playoff losing streak to 10 in the process. They never led and, dating back to last year’s sweep against Texas, have had the lead in just one inning in five postseason games. These don’t just feel like losses; they feel almost inevitable. That is what needs to change.

O’s became the 4th team to win ≥ 90 regular-season games, make the playoffs and go winless in the playoffs in consecutive seasons. Brewers are about to join them.
Others:
2021-22 Cardinals
2018-19 A’s
1969-70 Twins@Stathead

— Rob Daniels (@oriolesfactoids) October 3, 2024

“Last year, Game 1 (we had an) opportunity, didn’t win, but then the next two kind of got out of hand,” Orioles manager Brandon Hyde said. “This year, you felt like these were two winnable games.”

The Orioles front office and coaches will spend a long time unpacking all the reasons they became a .500 team: injuries, underperformance, over-reliance on their young stars. The players, eyes red-rimmed and shocked, will retreat to their offseason homes and wonder what could have been.

“For it to happen two years in a row is a tough pill to swallow,” said first baseman Ryan Mountcastle, who, like many of his teammates, had no answers for how this team slid so far from July on. For how the entire lineup dipped in runs per game, slugging percentage, OPS and every other tangible metric as the season wore on.

Someone better find those answers. Next year, the Orioles won’t have ace Corbin Burnes — who came over last offseason in a fantastic trade by the front office — or Anthony Santander, who hit a team-leading 44 home runs and is also headed to free agency. Those are big shoes to fill.

Make no mistake: This is still a talented young team. But never has an offseason felt more critical. Never has there been a time to aggressively chase upgrades and not waste another year of a young, controllable, cheap core.

Windows change. Injuries happen; players age. The Orioles don’t even have to leave the division for proof of how quickly things can turn sour. Just look at the Toronto Blue Jays.

The front office has proved it can build a minor-league system and develop an enviable group of young, big-league talent. It has done a terrific job turning around an organization that was in dire straits. Now it’s time to figure out how to take the next step.

Good isn’t good enough anymore. And just getting to October can’t be, either.

(Photo: Patrick Smith / Getty Images)

The NFL’s biggest surprise teams through Week 4 reside at opposite ends of the standings.

The Minnesota Vikings are 4-0 after losing their highly drafted rookie quarterback and substituting the well-traveled Sam Darnold in his place.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are 0-4 less than four months after rewarding their quarterback, Trevor Lawrence, with a $275 million extension.

Here’s another surprise: Lawrence’s statistical production through his 54 career starts mirrors the production for Darnold to the same point in his career (Darnold has made starts No. 57-60 this season).

It’s early for a Jaguars autopsy, but so far, Jacksonville fits the profile of a team that overestimated itself, symbolized most resoundingly when paying its quarterback. The team is facing tough questions earlier than anticipated because winnable games slipped away, leaving the Jaguars 0-4 for the second time in four seasons with Lawrence, and for the fourth time in 13 seasons with owner Shad Khan.

The schedule delivers beatable opponents over the next three weeks in the Indianapolis Colts (2-2), Chicago Bears (2-2) and New England Patriots (1-3), but enough has gone wrong through the Jaguars’ first four games to examine the evidence. Including that Darnold-Lawrence comp.

“It will not end well”

The Jaguars are not the only team to invest market-setting dollars in a quarterback carrying question marks long before there was a deadline for making a decision. The Miami Dolphins acted similarly with Tua Tagovailoa, as did the Arizona Cardinals with Kyler Murray. Both Lawrence and Murray signed extensions with two years remaining on their rookie contracts.

Shortly after the Jaguars extended Lawrence’s deal for $55 million annually, 50 coaches and executives voting in my 2024 Quarterback Tiers survey combined to place Lawrence in Tier 3. Lawrence ranked 16th. Tagovailoa was one spot higher. Murray was one spot lower. (Those three quarterbacks’ teams are a combined 2-10 this season.)

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The deal for Lawrence came after the Jaguars lost five of their final six games last season, with the only victory coming against Carolina, when Lawrence was unavailable because of injury.

“They have a quarterback they think is a superstar, and he is not a superstar,” a QB Tiers voter said over the summer. “Ownership thinks he is a superstar. It will not end well.”

The implication was that Lawrence can be good, but not great, and that he isn’t good enough consistently enough to meet sky-high expectations.

“Make no mistake, this is the best team assembled by the Jacksonville Jaguars, ever,” Khan told fans in late August. “Best players, best coaches. But most importantly, let’s prove it by winning now.”

The Darnold comp

Through 54 starts, Darnold and Lawrence had identical won-lost records (20-34), the same yards per pass attempt (6.7) and nearly the same average air yards per attempt. Their passer ratings lagged. Darnold took more sacks. Lawrence suffered from more dropped passes.

Lawrence had the better expected points added (EPA) per pass play, but in looking at the table below, we would never conclude that one of these quarterbacks deserved a market-setting extension, while the other was an abject failure.

Both players experienced terrible team situations early in their careers — Darnold with the New York Jets in the NFL’s largest media market, Lawrence with Jacksonville in its smallest.

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“Good players can be in bad situations, bad players can be in good situations and it takes a little while to figure out the true merit sometimes,” a veteran coach said.

Lawrence badly missed two open receivers, Christian Kirk and rookie Brian Thomas Jr., for what would have been long touchdown passes during the Jaguars’ 24-20 defeat at Houston in Week 4.

With those throws presumably in mind, coach Doug Pederson pushed back when asked after the game about possibly taking over play-calling duties from offensive coordinator Press Taylor.

“For what?” Pederson replied. “I thought he called a great game. As coaches, we can’t go out there and make the plays. It’s a two-way street.”

Lawrence missed Thomas along the right sideline for what would have been another big gain. Receivers made diving catches to secure two shorter throws. Other passes were imprecise enough to limit yards after the catch. Most of the misses were overthrows.

“When someone is so consistently spraying the ball and they are a guy who was a No. 1 overall (draft choice), I almost always feel like there is some element of, I don’t want to say the yips, but some sort of mechanical, fundamental thing,” NFL quarterback-turned-analyst J.T. O’Sullivan said while breaking down every Jaguars offensive play from Week 4 for his Patreon subscribers.

O’Sullivan noted that Lawrence in this game hopped backward unnecessarily while throwing. Bad habits can set in when quarterbacks do not trust their pass protection. Lawrence took a punishing hit early in the Houston game as the Texans’ physical defensive front asserted itself.

The Jaguars rank 16th in ESPN’s pass-block win rate metric and 23rd in Pro Football Focus’ pass-block grading, which doesn’t seem so bad. Reviews from within the league have been harsher.

“They play up front like they can’t wait until the play is over — tough to watch,” a personnel executive said before the Houston game. “The quarterback is missing easy throws. There’s bad body language. Just in general, offensively, a downtrodden group.”

Considering a potential Wentz parallel

The Philadelphia Eagles ranked 18th in offensive EPA per play during Pederson’s Super Bowl-winning tenure as their coach from 2016 to 2020. That period encompassed the rise and fall of Carson Wentz. Is Lawrence following a similar arc on a smaller scale?

The chart above compares the cumulative pass EPA for Wentz and Lawrence when both were with Pederson, pegged to career start number. The line for Wentz begins at career start No. 1, while the line for Lawrence begins at career start No. 18. There’s nothing definitive here, but this could be worth revisiting as the 2024 season progresses.

Pederson benched Wentz late in their fifth and final season together. Lawrence remains early in his fourth NFL season and third with Pederson. His five-year contract extension begins in 2026. He’s likely going to be in Jacksonville for years to come, no matter who is coaching.

Nine consecutive defeats for Lawrence

Lawrence’s current nine-game losing streak as a starter moves him one away from matching Carson Palmer (2010) and Jared Goff (2020-21) for the longest such streaks since 2000 for quarterbacks drafted No. 1.

Ten would also match the Jaguars’ franchise record, held by Chad Henne and Blake Bortles.

Darnold has been there before, once losing nine straight with the Jets. But his recent team and individual production far outpaces that of Lawrence, as the table below shows.

The decision to extend Lawrence’s contract at such an expensive price does not stand alone among choices inviting scrutiny for Jacksonville. They used the first pick in the 2022 draft for Travon Walker instead of Aidan Hutchinson. Bigger-picture defensive changes also stand out.

Last season, the Jaguars ranked 23rd on offense and 11th on defense as measured by EPA per play. They fired defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell and seven defensive assistants.

The offense ranks about the same this season (24th), but the defense ranks much worse (30th) while transitioning to a new style. Under coordinator Ryan Nielsen, Jacksonville is playing man coverage at the second-highest rate (42 percent) after having the third-lowest rate (15 percent) last season.

Darnold, backed by the NFL’s top-ranked defense by EPA per play, has attempted only two passes while trailing this season. The Jaguars’ record and Lawrence’s role in it would likely be footnotes if Jacksonville were getting that kind of production from its defense this season.

The defensive changes could still pay off. Lawrence and the offense could still hit stride.

The Jaguars were close to breaking open their season-opening game at Miami, but running back Travis Etienne fumbled as he neared the goal line. The Dolphins scored an 80-yard touchdown two plays later. Jacksonville led Houston 20-17 late in the third quarter when Tank Bigsby’s 58-yard run gave the Jaguars first-and-goal from the 4. Jacksonville turned over the ball on downs.

The 24-20 defeat to Houston dropped the Jaguars to 1-4 since the start of last season in games decided by four or fewer points. Such things tend to even out. The evening out cannot happen fast enough for a team set to induct its only winning coach, Tom Coughlin, into its Ring of Honor in Week 5.

(Photo of Trevor Lawrence, right, and Doug Pederson: Bryan Bennett / Getty Images)

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Week 4 is in the books — and it still feels weird to say that’s technically not the quarter mark of the season anymore. Whatever. September football is over now, so, spiritually, we’re moving into a new section of the NFL season.

In this installment of Quick Outs, we’ve got a couple of star AFC quarterbacks who aren’t playing quite like themselves, a worthy adversary for Brian Flores, and a little appreciation of one of the rarest runners the sport has ever seen.

Time to dive in.

Let’s talk about it: Patrick Mahomes’ turnover issues

There is too much Texas Tech in Patrick Mahomes’ game right now.

Mahomes has thrown five picks to start the season — at least one in each game, two in a near-loss to the Cincinnati Bengals. That total — currently the third-most in the NFL — is the most Mahomes has ever thrown through the first four games of a season.

Now, we’ve done this song and dance with Mahomes before. I know that. He (and the Chiefs at large) could not stop turning the ball over early in the 2021 season either. A majority of the interceptions that season felt fluky, though. Drops, tipped passes, miscommunications — everything that could go wrong outside of the quarterback’s control went wrong.

That’s not really the case right now. The funky interception Mahomes threw to Roquan Smith in the opener can go down as a fluke, but I’m willing to put the others on Kansas City’s QB.

.@bengals pick off Mahomes on the first play of the drive!

📺: #CINvsKC on CBS/Paramount
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/q9G42w9vi0

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— NFL (@NFL) September 15, 2024

Against the Bengals, Mahomes threw his first interception by trying to squeeze a deep sit route past a zone defender in Cover 2. The zone linebacker had nobody to cover on his side of the field and melted right back to the middle to pick off Mahomes.

Later in the game, Mahomes tossed up a 50-50 ball to 165-pound Xavier Worthy vs. CB Cam Taylor-Britt. Taylor-Britt made an insane one-handed catch, no doubt, but there’s just no world in which throwing a contested go ball to Worthy against a much bigger cornerback makes any sense.

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Mahomes’ end-zone interception against the Atlanta Falcons was a classic case of not seeing a safety flying back across the field to find the ball. Against the Los Angeles Chargers this past weekend, Mahomes simply overthrew his man on a heavily contested corner route. (I don’t knock him as harshly for that one because it’s a throw I know he’s capable of making, but you still have to hit it at the end of the day.)

Mahomes is probably going to be fine by the end of the season. He’s the best quarterback in the league and a back-to-back defending Super Bowl champion, so there’s no reason to doubt that this is just a blip on the radar.

The turnovers are a legitimate issue right now, though, and they have played a sizable role in all of the Chiefs’ games being so close.

Stat check: Trevor Lawrence’s off-target rate

One month into the season, Trevor Lawrence’s 16.4 percent off-target rate is the third-worst in the NFL, according to PFF. Only Bryce Young and Anthony Richardson have been worse. The former was benched for Andy Dalton; the latter is seen as the league’s biggest scattershot, even by his most optimistic supporters.

Lawrence is an eminently frustrating player. For most of the past three years, the film has painted Lawrence in a positive light, despite misfortune all around him. A couple misfires here and there would draw out his biggest detractors, but Lawrence was by and large a stud at the position. The team-wide results just weren’t there.

That’s just not the case right now. Lawrence is less accurate than ever, plain and simple. Those two or three misfires per game have turned into five or six. He’s not much different or worse when it comes to decision-making or creation ability or aggressiveness — the throws just aren’t connecting.

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Lawrence always had some weird misses, like I said, but it’s never been this bad. He’s typically hovered around an 11 percent off-target rate in other seasons, with a previous high of 12.4 percent. Those are mediocre marks, but not debilitating by any means.

The cope angle if you’re a Jaguars fan is that Lawrence’s average depth of target is much higher this year, so naturally he should be missing more throws. That’s true. Lawrence’s 10.3-yard average depth of target is nearly two yards above his previous career high. Even with degree of difficulty in mind, though, Lawrence is missing way more than he should. Lawrence currently holds a -8.5 completion percentage over expected, according to Next Gen Stats; his previous career low was -5.3 percent during that cursed rookie season under Urban Meyer.

I’m mildly concerned that Lawrence is in need of a little career rehabilitation. He is not the same player we saw peak at the end of 2022 or battle through irritating circumstances in 2023. He’s also not broken beyond repair, but there’s a level of uncertainty and shakiness to the way he plays now that was not there in years past.

Hopefully things normalize as the season goes on. Still, it’s hard to imagine the vibes around the NFL’s only winless team are going to get much better.

Can we just appreciate how ridiculous Derrick Henry is?

He is a 6-foot-4, 247-pound home-run hitter — an optical illusion at running back. Every other runner with anything close to that style of build is a bruiser, but Henry has always done his best work on the perimeter and with a runway.

Moreover, it’s a marvel Henry remains that kind of player at 30 years old with more than 2,000 NFL carries under his belt, never mind the beating he took at Alabama. The dreaded running back “cliff” should have come for Henry, but he just continues to outrun Father Time and run through opposing defenses. He looks as good as ever in Baltimore’s purple and black.

GO OFF KING

Tune in on NBC! pic.twitter.com/fJ5A4eP6on

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— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) September 30, 2024

Henry does give the Ravens the beef between the tackles they needed in the absence of Gus Edwards, but what he offers them out in space is the real catalyst for success. Henry is currently second in explosive rushes (12-plus yards) this season with nine, per TruMedia. The only player ahead of Henry is Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor (10 explosive runs).

Some of that explosive ability is tied to what Lamar Jackson affords a rushing offense in terms of space. The same is true of Taylor playing alongside Richardson, but Henry really is uniquely gifted in the open field for a big man. In 2024 alone, Henry has six runs on which he’s hit at least 18 MPH, per Next Gen Stats. All the players ahead of him on that list are quarterbacks (like Jayden Daniels, Kyler Murray and, of course, Jackson). It does not compute that a man as large as Henry can run with those guys.

Henry has long been doing this, too. Since entering the league in 2016, Henry has hit at least 18 MPH on 85 runs. No other player who weighs at least 240 pounds has more than 35 over that span — and it’s quarterback Cam Newton at that number. The only other running back with double digit 18-plus MPH runs over that span is Najee Harris (12).

There just isn’t another dude like Henry. He has the size and violence to ruin someone’s day with the meanest stiff arm you’ve ever seen before hitting the gas and tearing away from every other defender on the field. Henry is truly one of one, and we should appreciate how insanely cool it is that he is playing next to Jackson in Baltimore’s backfield.

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Scramble drill: Jordan Love vs. Brian Flores

Jordan Love threw three picks in a loss, but I swear he had the right idea for how to attack Brian Flores’ defense.

In theory, Love is the perfect quarterback to deal with Flores’ blitz-laden defense. He is both tough and creative in the pocket. Moreover, he throws with unwavering confidence — the kind of confidence that gets you burned as much as it does you any good. That’s the kind of mindset you need to beat a Flores defense that will send bodies, forcing you to make throws down the field and into traffic.

The problem for the Packers is that the volatility that style of defense invites got them in the first half.

.@k_grugierhill gets his hands on the INT!

📺: @NFLonCBS pic.twitter.com/iJVu45ANrt

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— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) September 29, 2024

Love’s first interception was on a square-in to Christian Watson. The Vikings put ‘backers in the right A and B gaps, only to pop both off and drop them in coverage. Love tried to beat them with the throw coming in from the left side, but linebacker Kamu Grugier-Hill made an unreal pick in traffic.

Later in the half, Love threw another interception on another pressure. Flores put five defenders on the line, baiting Green Bay to play a man-style protection scheme. The defensive linemen over the left guard knifed inside while the edge defender took it wide, opening a huge lane for a blitzing off-ball linebacker to pop Love as he tried throwing a high-low concept. The ball tipped off his tight end’s hands right to a Vikings defender.

Love did what he had to do from then on, though. He kept throwing from tight pockets and driving the ball into contested windows, continued to bounce in and around the pocket to buy time when needed, and most of all, did not stop ripping it into all the downfield voids left open by Flores’ blitzes. He did not back down or spiral out of control the way most guys do versus Flores.

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Love finished the day 7 of 17 for 188 yards, one touchdown and one pick on throws of at least 15 yards. The completions, attempts and yards were more than any other quarterback on the week. It wasn’t perfect, by any means, but Love did the right thing by continuing to fight fire with fire, ultimately bringing the Packers close enough to put the game to an onside kick.

Teams and quarterbacks around the league should take notice of the damage Love did by playing like a psychopath in the second half. If Flores is going to call an unhinged style of defense, the quarterback has to play equally unhinged to beat it.