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Five things to watch on the Baseball Hall of Fame ballot: How can Ichiro not be unanimous?

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Five things to watch on the Baseball Hall of Fame ballot: How can Ichiro not be unanimous?

Woohoo. It’s that time again. Hall of Fame election time.

Baseball’s 2025 Hall ballot was announced Monday — featuring one guy destined for an all-time landslide (Ichiro Suzuki) and 27 other names you know all too well.

We’ll learn who made it — besides Ichiro, that is — in two months. So as the suspense builds, here come Five Things to Watch on the 2025 Hall of Fame ballot.

1. Ichiro’s unanimous decision?


Ichiro won’t need to hold his breath on election day. But will it be unanimous? (Otto Greule Jr. / Getty Images)

Here we go again. From the same group that decided Babe Ruth, Willie Mays and Henry Aaron couldn’t possibly be unanimous Hall of Famers, what the heck are the baseball writers going to do about Ichiro Suzuki?

After nine decades of voting by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America, Mariano Rivera remains the only player elected unanimously. But zero unanimous position players in almost a century? Think how hard it’s been to pull that off. But our esteemed association is innovative like that — apparently.

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Just last winter, I thought Adrian Beltré had an outside shot to be unanimous. Nope. He somehow got left off 19 ballots. Nineteen!

Before that, I figured Derek Jeter was almost a lock to be unanimous in 2020. Oh, man. He missed by one vote. Then there was Ken Griffey Jr. in 2016. How could he not show up on every ballot, I thought. But what was I thinking? His name went unchecked on three of them.

So now it’s Ichiro’s turn. Everyone from Topeka to Tokyo knows Ichiro is a Hall of Famer. So come on, people. What reason could any voter possibly have not to vote for a guy who collected a staggering 4,367 hits on two continents — with 3,089 of them coming on this side of the Pacific (all after age 27)?

Or what logical justification would any voter have for not checking the name of the only player in history to spin off 10 seasons in a row with 200 hits and a Gold Glove Award? Nobody else who ever lived even had five seasons in a row like that.

Or how about this: How huge an all-around force was Ichiro? According to Baseball Reference, he finished his big-league career with 84 Batting Runs above average, 121 Fielding Runs above average and 62 Baserunning Runs above average.

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Did you know only two outfielders in history had a career remotely like that — with at least 80 Batting Runs, 110 Fielding Runs and 50 Baserunning Runs? One was Ichiro. The other? Willie Mays.

So how is any voter going to explain why he didn’t vote for that guy — a global baseball icon, one of two players in American League/National League history to win MVP and Rookie of the Year awards in the same season and — let’s just mention this again, OK? — the man who got more hits than anyone who ever played baseball in the two greatest leagues on Earth?

History tells us we should always take the “under” if the category is “unanimous Hall of Famer.” But if Ichiro Suzuki doesn’t get there, it’s not just embarrassing. It’s practically an international incident waiting to happen.

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2. Billy Wagner: 10 and in or 10 and done?


Close call: Billy Wagner got 73.8 percent of the vote last year. (Mike Fiala / AFP via Getty Images)

Five votes away. That’s where everybody’s favorite diminutive smoke-balling closer, Billy Wagner, stood when the voting dust had settled after last year’s election. Five votes from the plaque gallery. So of course he’s going to round up those five votes this time, right?

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Or is he?

Logic would tell us that we’ve put him through enough torture. It’s his 10th (and final) year on the writers’ ballot. So nobody needs to remind him that the climb to the summit of Mount Cooperstown can feel more precarious than a jaunt up Mount Kilimanjaro.

In his first three orbits on this ballot, Wagner never got more than 47 votes in any election. In his last three, he reeled in 201, 265 and 284. That means he has added 158 votes just in the past four elections. So how could he not attract five more votes to reach the necessary 75 percent threshold this time, when everyone knows his Hall of Fame legacy is on the line?

But that’s the logical part of our brains talking. When my fellow voters look at closers, they’ve been known to apply a whole different set of standards. So am I positive that the most unhittable left-handed reliever in history is going to be giving an induction speech next July? No!

On one hand, Wagner’s claims to historic greatness haven’t changed. He still ranks No. 1 in the modern era among all left-handed pitchers in ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate, opponent average and opponent OPS. (Minimum: 900 innings.) Is that Cooperstown-y enough? Seems like it. That’s why I vote for him, anyway.

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On the other hand, all those voters who ask, “How’d he do in October?” haven’t gone away, either. They’re stuck on Wagner’s 10.03 postseason ERA, and they can’t get past it.

Look, I get it. October matters. So I’ve taken a deep, game-by-game dive into those outings – and found enough strange stuff in those games to conclude they’re not as disqualifying as that ERA makes them appear.

But that’s me. And I only get to vote once. So while I think Wagner is going to clear this bar — and join Larry Walker, Edgar Martinez and Tim Raines as the most recent members of the prestigious Elected in Their Last Shot Club — nothing would shock me.

As I wrote last January, after he’d just missed getting elected, it’s a good thing this guy was a closer for a living — because nobody knows better than a closer that the last out is always the hardest to get. Can Billy Wagner close this deal? We’ll let you know in two months.

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Billy Wagner reflects on the emotions of just missing the Hall of Fame

3. Is there a third Hall of Famer in the house?


Can Andruw Jones snare enough votes to get elected? (John Iacono / Sports Illustrated via Getty Images)

I know the premise of that question assumes that we’ll even have a second Hall of Famer (Wagner) elected from this ballot. But let’s just go with that – OK? — and look at whether anyone among the remaining 26 candidates has a shot to get to 75 percent.

It feels as if there are only three realistic possibilities: Andruw Jones, Carlos Beltrán and CC Sabathia. Let’s discuss them.

Andruw Jones (61.6 percent — 62 votes short last time)

Hard to believe it’s Jones’ eighth year on the ballot, but it’s true. So you’d think we’d have a clear view of whether he has a safe path to Cooperstown by now, wouldn’t you? But do we? Not from my scenic overlook, we don’t.

The good news is, he got more votes last time than any returning position player. And if you’re a modern-metrics kind of voter, you can’t help but have noticed that, according to Baseball Reference, Jones rolled up more career wins above replacement (62.7) than two of the three guys who got elected in 2024, Todd Helton and Joe Mauer.

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But …

Jones’ dramatic decline after age 30 is shaping up as a mammoth roadblock for those 148 voters who still aren’t checking his name. After adding over 200 votes and zooming from under 8 percent to more than 58 percent in just four years (2020-21-22-23), he added only 11 votes last year (and 3.5 percentage points).

Does it seem significant that that was the smallest jump of anyone on the upper tier of the ballot? I think it does.

So can he now flip 62 more “no” votes to “yes” this year after flipping only 11 last year? I’m no Steve Kornacki, but I’m a “nay” on that.

Carlos Beltrán (57.1 percent — 69 votes short last time)

It’s Year 3 of this derby for Beltrán, who is now the answer to this cool trivia question:

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Who owns the most career WAR of anyone on this ballot not known as “A-Rod”?

That’s Carlos Beltrán, all right, at 70.1. But now comes a harder question: What did this guy’s first two rides on the ballot tell us?

In Year 1, Beltrán got 46.5 percent of the vote — a clear indication that many, many voters could still hear those Astros trash-can lids banging. But then a funny thing happened in Year 2:

He soared to 57.1 percent. And if you were paying attention, you might have detected that it happened to be the largest jump (10.6 percentage points) of any returning player.

So does that mean he’s now going to be treated like a “normal” candidate? Does it say that lots of voters were just imposing a temporary purgatory on him for that messy (but brief) Houston portion of his career, but now they’re over it? Hey, I don’t know. I just read the tea leaves.

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But if those 2024 tea leaves are telling the story I think they’re telling, there’s a Hall of Fame speech in Beltrán’s future.

Over the past 50 elections, five other players have debuted on the ballot at 40 percent or higher and then jumped by at least 10 percentage points the next year. Those five: Jeff Bagwell, Ryne Sandberg, Barry Larkin, Ferguson Jenkins and Catfish Hunter. Want to guess why we mention that?

Yep, it’s because we know how the voters treated all five of those guys after that. Namely … they elected every one of them. So if that’s telling us anything about how they’ll treat Beltrán, I’d pick 2026 as Carlos Beltrán’s Induction Weekend. But we’re just guessing — until this 2025 election tells us how voters really look at him.

CC Sabathia (first year on the ballot)

I can’t wait to see Sabathia’s Year 1 vote total. I wouldn’t be shocked if it’s 76 percent. I wouldn’t be shocked if it’s 46 percent — or pretty much any other number you’d like to pick out of his cap.

That’s because it’s hard to think of any candidate quite like CC.

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If you close your eyes and don’t spend any time looking at his Baseball Reference page, he feels like a Hall of Famer. He walks and talks like a Hall of Famer. And he definitely has the spectacular highlight reel of a Hall of Famer.

But does he have the actual numbers of a Hall of Famer? Um, it depends on which numbers you look at.

If you’re a yes, maybe it’s because he’s one of only three left-handed pitchers in the live-ball era (since 1920) in the 250-Win, 3,000-Strikeout Club. The others: Randy Johnson and Steve Carlton.

But if you’re a no, it’s because you’re staring at Sabathia’s 3.74 career ERA. Incredibly, that would be the highest of any left-handed starter in the Hall of Fame (not to mention third-highest overall, behind Jack Morris’ 3.90 and Red Ruffing’s 3.80).

Then there’s also CC’s place on this ballot alongside two other left-handers who blew past 200 wins and had long, distinguished, reliable careers: Andy Pettitte and Mark Buehrle.

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Pitcher W-L  ERA+

Pettitte

256-153

117

Buehrle 

214-160

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117

Sabathia

251-161

116

(Source: Baseball Reference)

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Ooh. So what are we to make of that, huh? Did it feel, as you were watching them, that there was that little separation between those three guys? I’d say no. But there they are, on the same ballot all of a sudden. And who knows what that will mean.

Maybe it boosts Pettitte and Buehrle more than it dings CC. But Pettitte and Buehrle have spent a combined 10 years on this ballot and neither one has come within 150 votes of getting elected. So what about that fact suggests that CC is about to sail in on the first ballot? Not much!

To be clear, I think CC Sabathia is a Hall of Famer. But is he two months from getting elected? That uncertainty explains what he’s doing in this part of the column.

4. How many first-timers make it to Year 2?

Dustin Pedroia

Dustin Pedroia is part of a special first-year class. (Billie Weiss / Boston Red Sox / Getty Images)

Check out these names. They’re all making their debut on the Hall of Fame ballot in this cycle. You’ve heard of them.

Ichiro … CC … Dustin Pedroia … Félix Hernández … Troy Tulowitzki … Ben Zobrist … Ian Kinsler … Curtis Granderson … Hanley Ramirez.

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Now … are you ready for a breaking news bulletin that’s almost sure to shock you?

Those nine players make up one of the most historic first-year ballot classes in modern voting history.

So how is that, you ask? Here’s how: Only one other time, in the six decades since Hall of Fame voting became an annual event, have we had that many first-timers with a big enough peak that they had at least two seasons worth 6.0 WAR or more, according to Baseball Reference.

Baseball Reference research whiz Kenny Jackelen checked this out for us, and it’s true. The only other year, under the modern voting system, when nine players like that debuted on any ballot was in 2013, when all these men arrived:

Barry Bonds (16 six-win seasons), Roger Clemens (11), Curt Schilling (five), Mike Piazza (four), Kenny Lofton (three), Shawn Green (three), Craig Biggio (three), Sammy Sosa (two) and Julio Franco (two).

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The breakdown this year: Sabathia and Tulowitzki had four 6.0-WAR seasons. Pedroia had three. And everyone else had two. And yes, that includes Ichiro.

But wait. We have an asterisk. And it brings Brian McCann and Russell Martin into the argument.

Those two are also making their ballot debuts. And while Baseball Reference rates them as having zero 6.0-WAR seasons, the FanGraphs version of WAR says Martin had two of those seasons and McCann had four. We think that’s worth noting, if only because there are so many catcher fans who think FanGraphs’ WAR uses a better formula for valuing a catcher’s defensive impact.

So if you also add in someone like Carlos González, who was just short of two 6.0-WAR seasons himself, that’s a dozen new players on this ballot who had a run, for at least a couple of seasons, that made you say: That guy’s a star. Rest assured, ballots like this don’t come along very often.

But nobody’s going to the Hall of Fame based on two or three great years. So here’s the big question: How many of these first-timers have enough volume to make it to Year 2 on this ballot?

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It takes at least 5 percent of the vote to pull that off. And for what it’s worth, only two first-timers cleared that bar last year: Chase Utley (28.8 percent) and David Wright (6.2).

I’ll predict that this year’s class beats that — with Sabathia, Pedroia and King Félix all finishing north of 5 percent. And maybe Tulo (who had a six-year run in the Best Player in Baseball conversation) and Kinsler (one of the two second basemen in history with two seasons in the 30-30 Club) join them.

It’s been over a decade since more than three first-timers got enough votes to make it back for another election. (That 2013 class produced six of them.) But if it’s ever going to happen again, this feels like the year.

5. Is there Cooperstown life after the Roaring 20s?


Chase Utley got 28.8 percent of the vote in his first year on the ballot. Jimmy Rollins, who is on the ballot for the fourth time, has an even steeper hill to climb. (Hunter Martin / Getty Images)

Hall of Fame voting would be easy if everyone on the ballot were like Ichiro. We’d just fire a few hundred votes their way and move on to the next living legend.

Except, of course, that’s not how this goes at all. So just in the last eight years, we’ve elected five players who once had vote percentages that were in the 20s — or lower:

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Player Year Elected Lowest %

Todd Helton

2024   

16.5

Scott Rolen

2023 

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10.2

Larry Walker 

2020 

20.3

Mike Mussina

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2019

20.3

Tim Raines

2017 

22.6

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Does anyone else find that fascinating? Thought so! It means that voters’ perspectives on all those players evolved so dramatically that every one of them had to (at least) triple their vote total to make it onto that stage in Cooperstown. And you know what — that’s OK with me.

It says we never stop thinking about what a Hall of Famer is and isn’t. Why is there a 10-year window for every player on the ballot? That’s why. Because snap judgments aren’t necessarily the most accurate judgments.

So what does that have to do with the 2025 Hall of Fame ballot? It’s a reason to ask: So who’s next?

Maybe that answer is obvious: Billy Wagner. Like Rolen, he was once as low as 10.2 percent. Nowadays, the ballot isn’t as crowded as it was when he debuted. And it’s possible we view closers through a different lens. So boom, here he is, on the verge of getting elected.

Then there’s Andruw Jones. In his first year on the ballot, he got a mere 7.3 percent! And now he, too, has a shot at election.

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But what about the nine players returning to this ballot who got between 6 percent and 29 percent of the vote last year? Are any of them positioned to follow this path? Here are three who could:

Andy Pettitte (Year 7) — I’ve already predicted that Sabathia is headed for Cooperstown one of these years. And we’ve seen, in this very column, how similar Pettitte’s numbers are to CC’s. The road to Cooperstown isn’t supposed to begin with six straight elections in which a player gets 17 percent of the vote or less. But you know what causes voters’ perspectives to change? When a very similar player arrives on the ballot — and winds up in the plaque gallery!

Chase Utley (Year 2) — Here’s another prediction. Utley is going to get elected. He got only 28.8 percent last year, so he was 178 votes away. And his counting numbers (1,885 hits, 259 homers) seemed to act as blinking red lights for the traditionalists in this voting crowd.

But there’s a major voting shift coming, one that’s already begun, in fact — away from those traditional magic counting numbers and toward guys with dominant Hall of Fame-type peaks, who also had a big impact on winning. And you know when that shift will hit home? When Buster Posey (1,500 hits, 158 homers) shows up on the ballot in two years. I can’t think of anyone on this ballot whose candidacy will be helped by Posey more than Utley.

Jimmy Rollins (Year 4) — And you know whose Hall of Fame case should then get a boost from Utley? How ’bout Rollins, his longtime double-play partner in South Philly.

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The truth is, Rollins actually has a better Hall case than Utley, even though he got about half as many votes as his former teammate last year. Why? An MVP trophy. A World Series trophy. More than 2,400 hits. Four Gold Gloves. Not to mention 200 homers, 400 steals and 857 extra-base hits. He’s the only shortstop in history who had that career. Plus, he combines a big peak and those traditional counting numbers.

What he lacks is Utley’s huge sabermetric cred. But the last decade of Hall voting is overflowing with examples of how one player’s election can magically elevate another, just by connecting their dots. (Ask Larry Walker and Todd Helton.) So it’s bound to happen again. And you know where we can look for clues?

When those 2025 Hall election results are announced, two months down another Cooperstown road. I don’t know about you, but I can’t wait.


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The Athletic’s 2025 Baseball Hall of Fame reader survey: Vote for your picks

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A salute to Ichiro, CC Sabathia and the other 12 newcomers to the Baseball Hall of Fame ballot

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The case for — and against — each of the Classic Baseball Era Hall of Fame candidates

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Baseball Hall of Fame tiers: Which active players are on course for Cooperstown?

(Top photo of Ichiro Suzuki: Otto Greule Jr. / Getty Images)

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Culture

Have NHL players maxed out the slap shot? The science behind the speed

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Have NHL players maxed out the slap shot? The science behind the speed

Thirty years ago, the average PGA golfer drove the ball 261.84 yards. Davis Love III was the longest hitter at 283.8 yards.

In 2024, the average distance is 300.9 yards, with Cameron Champ leading the way at a whopping 323.3 yards. Technological advances for both clubs and golf balls — combined with a greater focus on fitness — have turned 7,000-yard tracks into pitch-and-putts for the world’s best golfers.

Thirty years ago, Al Iafrate won the NHL’s hardest shot competition at the All-Star skills competition with a 102.7 mph blast, down from his 105.2 a year before.

At the 2024 All-Star weekend, Cale Makar won with a slap shot of 102.5 mph. Utah’s Michael Kesselring and the Buffalo Sabres’ Tage Thompson recently had blasts of 103.77 mph and 104.69 mph, respectively — the only two 100 mph clappers in the league this season. Last season, the 10 biggest bombers combined for 26 shots at or above 100 mph, with the Winnipeg Jets’ Colin Miller topping out at 102.59.

What gives? Iafrate was using an old-school wooden stick. Makar, Kesselring, Thompson, Miller and everyone else in the league is using a custom composite stick, designed to their exact body and mechanical specifications to generate maximum force. Yet the numbers are comparable. There might be more big shooters in the league — tracking data in the NHL only dates back to the 2021-22 season, so we’ll never know for sure — but they’re not really raising the bar by much. Certainly not to the degree that golfers are. Or tennis players are, for that matter.

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In fact, it’s more akin to baseball, in which pitchers seem to have reached the limit of human capability at about 105 mph. More and more pitchers throw hard every year — 203 pitchers averaged a four-seam fastball of 95 mph or more this season, up from 123 just seven years ago — but the ceiling isn’t budging. Since Aroldis Chapman hit a record 105.8 mph back in 2010, only Ben Joyce and Jordan Hicks have touched 105, and only once each (Chapman did it nine times). Of course, pitchers aren’t using any equipment. It’s just muscle and mechanics. The human body can only do so much, no matter how feverishly you exercise, no matter how impeccable your nutritional habits are.

Hockey’s different, right? Shouldn’t there be 110 mph shots by now? Or 120, for that matter? Shouldn’t we be talking about scaling back the technology to preserve the integrity of the game, the way the golf world always is? Like every other sport, hockey players keep getting bigger and stronger. But the low-100s remains the gold standard for shot speed.

It begs two questions: Have we reached the ceiling of what a slap shot can be? And why?

“There’s always a limit,” said Detroit Red Wings defenseman Moritz Seider, who has reached 95.54 mph this season, in the league’s 91st percentile. “The human factor only allows you to do so much. And there does come a point where we’re not superhuman.”

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Alain Haché knows a thing or two about high-speed projectiles. The experimental physicist and University of Moncton professor seemed to defy the very laws of physics in 2002 when he and one of his students sent a pulse of radiation 120 meters at superluminal speed — that’s faster than the speed of light. But Haché is a hockey nerd, too, the author of two books on the science behind the sport. It makes him uniquely qualified to address such an esoteric topic.

He believes the plateauing speeds of NHL slap shots means that we might have reached our technological limit when it comes to hockey sticks. Iafrate and Al MacInnis and Bobby Hull were physical freaks in the wooden-stick days. All the composites have done is let the rest of the league catch up to them.

“What it means probably is the limitation is no longer the stick itself,” Haché said. “Hockey sticks are pretty efficient already.”

A slap shot is pretty simple from a physics standpoint. When a player rears back and fires, he doesn’t aim for the puck, but rather a foot or so behind the puck. When the stick hits the ice, it flexes, or bends. By flexing the stick, a player is storing potential energy into the stick. When the stick unbends and whips back around, it’s turning that potential energy into kinetic energy, sending the puck on its way.

Energy is always lost in the bending and unbending of the stick, Haché said. A perfectly elastic stick would convert 100 percent of a player’s potential energy into kinetic energy, but modern sticks are pretty close. Haché estimated that modern composites convert “maybe 90 percent.”

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“So if you improve your stick (even further), you’re not going to gain a lot,” he said. “You’re not going to double the amount of energy you can transfer. So the energy becomes limited by the player.”

In Iafrate’s and MacInnis’ day, the wooden sticks could flex only so much, and there wasn’t any significant variety from twig to twig.

These days, players have all sorts of options with composite sticks. A stick’s flex — or “whippiness,” in the players’ parlance — is assigned a number. A number above 100 is stiffer, a number below 100 is “whippier.”

Zdeno Chara, a nearly 7-foot-tall giant who holds the record for hardest shot in an NHL skills competition at 108.8 mph, used a famously stiff stick. Alex Ovechkin, on the verge of becoming the league’s all-time leading goal scorer largely on the strength of his cannonading one-timer slap shot, uses an extra whippy stick, in the mid-to-upper-70s. Connor Bedard, who doesn’t have the physical stature of either of those players, uses a super-whippy stick in the low-70s. Whatever suits the player’s mechanics best.


Chicago’s Connor Bedard uses a particularly “whippy” stick, with a flex in the low-70s. (Chris Tanouye / Freestyle Photography / Getty Images)

Naturally, there’s more to it than that, depending on how deep into the scientific weeds you want to get. There’s the “bounce effect,” which means a shot will have more velocity if the puck is moving toward the player at speed when he hits it — think of big Aaron Judge squaring up a 100 mph fastball and imagine the exit velocity. Judge wouldn’t be able to hit a ball off a tee nearly as far, or as fast. It’s not a one-for-one factor because it’s not a perfectly elastic collision; if a 60 mph pass from behind the net is one-timed back toward the net, the shooter won’t get an additional 60 mph on his shot. But he will get a bump.

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Now if the player is carrying the puck up the ice at speed and manages to get off a slapper on the rush, he will get all that additional speed. Let’s say Connor McDavid is carrying the puck up ice at 23 mph, his top speed so far this season. If he somehow managed to rip a full slap shot at 83 mph, his top shot velocity this season, while the puck was still moving at 23 mph, his shot would go 106 mph. Easier said than done, but maybe Hall of Famer Marián Hossa was onto something when he would blast those slap shots while racing into the low slot during shootout attempts.

The stick — wood, fiberglass, carbon fiber, aluminum, whatever — is just a tool, though. Technique matters more than anything else. But a little muscle mass doesn’t hurt.

“The power comes entirely from the player,” Haché said. “He will rotate his body. He will time the slap shot so that he can put as much flex as he can in the stick.”

That’s why San Jose defenseman Jake Walman says his shots are harder and heavier earlier in the season, while he still has all the muscle he added over the summer. Players typically lose much of their bulk over the course of the grueling season, as weight-lifting takes a back seat to the endless cardio they’re doing night after night. Their shots can fade along with their weight.

But while behemoths such as Chara and Shea Weber (who nearly caught Chara with a 108.5 at the 2015 All-Star weekend) and the 6-6 Thompson have an inherent advantage, size isn’t everything. Timing is crucial. Pick the puck clean instead of hitting the ice first and the stick won’t flex and the puck will flutter weakly. Hit too far behind the puck and most of the kinetic energy will be spent before the blade even gets to the puck.

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“Everyone shoots different, but there are certain things you have to do in order to have a hard shot,” said Chicago’s Seth Jones, who topped out at 97.97 mph last season. “You see small guys have hard shots all the time. You don’t need to be 220 pounds and 6-3 to have a hard shot. And the flex is whatever you’re comfortable with. Some guys shoot harder with (a) 100 flex, some guys shoot even harder with a 75. There’s no one way to do it.”


Zdeno Chara unleashes a 108.8 mph slap shot at the NHL’s 2012 hardest shot competition in Ottawa. (Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)

Power in one sport doesn’t necessarily mean power in the other. Walman’s best golf drives go a relatively modest 270 yards down the middle.

But oh, man, can Walman spin the ball.

“I’m hitting down on it pretty hard,” he said.

The Sharks defenseman blasted a slapper 101.6 mph last year in Vancouver when he was with the Detroit Red Wings. This year, he’s topped out at 94.93 mph. And it’s the same body mechanics that allow him to put so much backspin into a 9-iron that allow him to so consistently hit a hockey puck really hard — the way he rears back and opens up his upper body, the way he transfers nearly all the weight into his front foot with vicious body torque, the way he leans into the stick to create all that flex as he hits the ice six to 12 inches behind the puck, the way he follows through with all of his weight moving forward.

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“You’re leaning over way more in hockey than in golf,” he said. “I’m bent over, all my power is generating into that one spot in front. … I’m leaning so far over the puck that all my weight is going down into the puck.”

Hardest shots by year since NHL tracking data implementation

Year Season Leader Speed (mph)

2024-25

104.69

2023-24

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102.59

2022-23

101.71

2021-22

101.95

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Walman’s always had a big shot, even when he didn’t have the right tools. He said he was pretty much the last kid in youth hockey to play with a wooden stick. His teammates chirped him for it, and his coaches “gave my mom and dad heck” for not buying him a composite stick. But even at a young age, Walman was able to bring out the flex in the wood and launch missiles all day. To this day, he still wonders which kind of stick is really more powerful when leveraged perfectly.

“I’d say the first 50 percent is everything that you do — the power you’re generating, leaning into it,” Walman said. “And then the stick takes over after that. The second half is the technology.”

So while Haché thinks sticks might be approaching the point of perfection, players aren’t so sure. Jones, for one, was skeptical when asked if the NHL had hit the ceiling.

“It depends on where the technology can go,” Jones said. “Athletes are developing every year, we’re getting faster and stronger and bigger, but it’s not just the human body. It’s a little different than pitching, where it’s just you and your arm and the ball. Here, we’re using equipment. Right now, it seems like it maxed out with how light and strong sticks are with the carbon fiber. But who knows in 10 years where the hell technology can be?”


There’s another question that needs to be addressed here: Does any of this even matter?

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While MLB teams have high-tech “pitch labs” and huge staffs devoted to squeezing every last bit of velocity and spin out of their pitchers — if a pitcher’s velocity drops a single mile per hour from one start to the next, team medical staffs kick into gear and fan bases go into a panic — NHL players seem a lot less concerned with the science behind the shot.

See puck, hit puck. Puck go fast.

“I honestly have no idea” how the science works, said Edmonton’s Evan Bouchard, who hit 103 in an AHL skills competition.

Most of the biggest shots in the game come from defensemen, and you’ll see them firing off blasts from the point at that night’s starting goalie at the tail end of every morning skate. It’s more of a ritual than a rigorous scientific process, though.

“I just figure the more you do it, the better you get at it,” Bouchard said. “It’s just practice, repetition.”

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When told he was in the top 10 percent in the league when it came to shot speed, Seider said: “That’s obviously cool. But that’s not a stat I’ve ever checked.”

See, a 100 mph shot is a great weapon in hockey. But there are several reasons why it’s not the be-all, end-all the way a 100 mph four-seam fastball is.

For one, full-bore slap shots are very difficult to get off in game situations. There’s a reason most of the biggest blasts come from skills competitions with pristine conditions — a free run-up, a stationary puck (the timing is too tricky to risk playing for the aforementioned bounce effect) and no defender. In a game, time and space are often nonexistent.

“The game is just way too fast for taking the time, going all the way to the top and letting one rip,” Seider said. “People are just in your way more. There’s better coverage, opponents have better sticks on you. You hardly ever get off your best slap shot in an actual game.”

Another reason it’s not as critical: Harder isn’t always better. Back when the Blackhawks were winning championships, they had big Brent Seabrook blasting shots from the point on the power play. But light-hitting Michal Rozsíval would get his share of power-play time, too. And his wimpy little shots just seemed to have a knack for getting through traffic, hitting the net and creating rebounds.

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“It’s hard to get off a big shot nowadays,” Bouchard said. “Sometimes it’s better to throw a quick wrist shot on net and see what happens. It doesn’t always have to be as hard as you can hit it. That’s not always the best shot.”

A big windup also gives a defender an extra split second to throw himself in front of the puck. That said, Jones posited that one big shot that gets very painfully blocked might lead to an open lane later in the game, as a defender thinks twice about stepping in front of the next one.

But even he acknowledged that rarely happens.

“It’s a competitive sport,” Jones said. “You’re still going to see guys laying out in front of shots to win the Stanley Cup, whether it’s 80 miles per hour or 120.”

After all, physics might be able to explain how flex and torque and weight transfer and potential energy all add up to a classic clapper. But there’s no explaining what drives someone to step in front of one.

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“No one said we’re smart,” Jones said with a chuckle. “We’re athletes.”

(Illustration: Meech Robinson / The Athletic. Photos: Bruce Bennett, Patrick Smith, Steph Chambers / Getty Images)

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After a year-long wait, the Aaron Rodgers-led New York Jets are a hard watch

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After a year-long wait, the Aaron Rodgers-led New York Jets are a hard watch

EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. — New York Jets players and coaches often talk about how they can’t resort to finger-pointing, even when things are at their worst — which they are right now.

There was a play late in the fourth quarter on Sunday, a coverage bust that fit perfectly in a season of misery and befuddlement. But that play was set up by a decision made on the other side of the ball a few minutes earlier.

It felt like a game the Jets were going to win. They stole momentum back at the start of the second half, with a takeaway on a forced fumble and then a Breece Hall touchdown a few plays later. They went up 24-16 on a Kenny Yeboah touchdown reception early in the fourth quarter. The Colts cut it to a two-point game, and then Aaron Rodgers worked the offense up the field, killing the clock and getting them to the Colts’ 25-yard-line with 3:30 left. On fourth-and-2, Rodgers went to the line of scrimmage. Jets cornerback D.J. Reed thought they were going to go for it. Instead, Rodgers tried to draw the Colts offsides. It didn’t work, so the Jets called timeout. Anders Carlson converted a 35-yard field goal. Interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich considered this a show of confidence in a Jets defense that, many times over the 2022 and ’23 seasons, did its job at the end of games.

“When we saw the field goal team go on we were all happy like: Let’s do what we do,” Reed said. “The last three years, that’s what we did.”

That’s not what they did on Sunday. This is 2024.

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On the second play of the drive, Anthony Richardson aired it out for Alec Pierce down the right sideline. Cornerback Sauce Gardner passed the route off to safety Jalen Mills, who was supposed to be in position to prevent Pierce from catching the ball, possibly even intercepting it. Instead, Pierce easily caught it, a 39-yard gain.

At the end of the play, Gardner ran over and pointed at Mills. Literal finger-pointing. Twice.

“It’s a play that shouldn’t have happened,” Gardner said.

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A few plays later, Richardson ran for a 4-yard touchdown. The Colts didn’t convert their two-point conversion but it didn’t matter. The Jets offense, without any timeouts, fumbled on the first snap then killed the clock on second down. Rodgers was sacked on third down and the clock ran out. The Jets, in embarrassing fashion, lost another game they should have won. Final score: 28-27. The Jets’ record: 3-8. The Jets’ season: in the toaster.

“It’s tough to process,” Reed said. “That’s what your play for. You want to play meaningful football in November, December, January … We want to stick together. We have to stick together. The outside world is going to be pointing fingers — and understandably so — but the guys in the locker room, we have to stick together and I feel like we have the right character guys to do that.”

In what has turned into arguably the most disappointing season in Jets history, it is clear that even if the Jets have the right character guys, they don’t have the right guys.


The Jets are at the point of the season when their offense is being booed off the field at their home stadium in the first quarter. The point that, when fans do cheer, it’s typically in a mocking tone — like when, on Sunday, the Jets offense converted its first first down just as the first half was about to end, or when Gardner made an impressive tackle in the second quarter after struggling for weeks to get opponents on the ground.

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They were supposed to combine a winning defense with one of the NFL’s greatest quarterbacks to become a bonafide playoff contender. Instead, since Robert Saleh was fired and replaced by Ulbrich, the defensive coordinator, the defense has looked like one of the NFL’s worst, allowing 26.2 points per game, failing in fundamentals and crumbling in key moments.

“I have noticed that,” Reed said. “The last couple games we haven’t played to our standard on defense. We’ve given up touchdowns, or given up explosive plays. I can’t really account for what it is. Coach Ulbrich does have a lot on his plate but he’s a grown man and he can handle it. I just think it comes down to executing and playing our role. I feel like we’re not executing, no matter what we’re being told to do, we’re just not executing on the field.”

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And there’s the Rodgers part of it all. Earlier in the week, he was asked if he still planned on returning in 2025, as he stumbled to the end of the worst season of his career. He responded, tepidly: “Yeah, I think so.”

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Sunday’s showing did nothing to make it feel like Rodgers returning to the Jets would be a good thing, for team or player. The 40-year-old didn’t even surpass 100 passing yards until the third quarter. He’s looked unwilling (or unable) to throw the ball down the field, and his excuses for that — last week he said the offensive line needs to block for longer, Sunday he blamed his lack of deep throws on the Colts playing a two-high defense — aren’t quite up to snuff.

Over the last two weeks, Rodgers is 1 of 6 on passes thrown more than 10 yards downfield, the one completion coming on a nice sideline throw to Xavier Gipson in Sunday’s fourth quarter. Those moments have been few and far between, and the Jets offense has somehow become less explosive since trading for Davante Adams. Rodgers finished Sunday with 184 yards on 29 pass attempts.

Ulbrich was asked if Rodgers’ reticence is holding the Jets offense back. He deflected in his response.

“We’ll take a hard look at the tape,” Ulbrich said. “There’s an element to, of course, injury is going to hamper anybody in these types of situations, but it never comes down to one man. It comes down to protection, receivers, running backs, the running game, all those things. So, I know Aaron would love to be playing better, but it’s not just him, it’s all of us.”

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Rodgers simply doesn’t look like Rodgers anymore, even if no one around the Jets organization wants to admit it publicly.

“Yeah, I mean, it wasn’t my best performance,” Rodgers said. “I felt like I did a few good things, but unfortunately in this game sometimes you have to make a decision and pick a side and sometimes you pick the right side and sometimes you pick the wrong side … It’s just one of those weird things. Sometimes you pick the right side and get lucky and sometimes you don’t and you have to look at the damn tablet and see a guy was open.”

He was asked about that sort of struggle being something he hadn’t dealt with before — he pushed back at the assertion.

“It happens all the time,” Rodgers said. “It does happen all the time, but sometimes you just pick it right and you get on a roll and seem to pick it right all the time. Sometimes it’s a hunch. I’m going through progressions. Sometimes in those two situations I would’ve had to have skipped over a progression and just trust the guy as being open. Sometimes that hits, sometimes you wish you would have just stayed with the progression. It’s the beauty and the frustration of the game.”

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The Jets are 3-8. Their playoff hopes, if there are any, range from one to four percent, depending on your source. There is plenty to be frustrated about. And none of it is pretty.

“It’s very hard to fathom,” Reed said. “I’m still processing it right now.”

(Top photo: Al Bello / Getty Images)

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How Charles Burns Is Reinventing Romance Comics With ‘Final Cut’

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How Charles Burns Is Reinventing Romance Comics With ‘Final Cut’

Charles Burns loves a doomed romance. This has been true throughout his career as a graphic novelist, and it remains so in his remarkable new book, “Final Cut.”

Burns tells this latest story using a visual style that he has honed over decades of comics, designs and album covers. He has frequently found ways to connect old pop culture and fine art, but here, he incorporates and criticizes his own work, too.

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